Indooroopilly – Queensland 2015

LNP 19.55%

Incumbent MP
Scott Emerson, since 2009.

Geography
Brisbane. Indooroopilly is the only seat that crosses the Brisbane River, covering inner western suburbs on both sides of the river, specifically Chelmer, Graceville, Tennyson, Sherwood, Fig Tree Pocket, Indooroopilly, Taringa and St Lucia.

History
The seat of Indooroopilly has existed since 1992. The seat was held by the Liberal Party from 1992 to 2001, then by the ALP from 2001 to 2008. In 2008 the sitting member joined the Greens, and in 2009 he lost to the LNP.

The seat was first won in 1992 by former Liberal leader Denver Beanland. He had held the seat of Toowong since 1986, and had been leader of the Liberal Party until 1991.

Beanland served as Attorney-General from 1996 to 1998, and lost his seat in 2001.

Ronan Lee won Indooroopilly for the ALP in 2001. He was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, and was appointed as a Parliamentary Secretary after the 2006 election.

In 2008, Lee resigned from the ALP and joined the Greens. He contested Indooroopilly for the Greens in 2009. The seat was the best result for the Greens in the state, but Lee’s vote was much lower than he had won in past elections as the Labor candidate. Lee narrowly missed out on coming in the top two, and the seat was won by the LNP’s Scott Emerson.

Scott Emerson was re-elected in 2012 with a 13.7% swing, and has served as Minister for Transport since 2012.

Candidates

Assessment
Indooroopilly was won by Labor when the party was at a high point in 2001, 2004 and 2006, but the seat leans towards the LNP and Scott Emerson is a strong sitting MP who shouldn’t have trouble retaining his seat.

2012 election result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Scott Emerson Liberal National 15,225 60.89 +14.44
Oscar Schlamowitz Labor 4,669 18.67 -7.87
Charles Worringham Greens 4,623 18.49 -7.44
Andrew Mooney Family First 488 1.95 +1.95

2012 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Scott Emerson Liberal National 16,140 69.55 +13.68
Oscar Schlamowitz Labor 7,067 30.45 -13.68
Polling places in Indooroopilly at the 2012 Queensland state election. Graceville in orange, Indooroopilly in green, Toowong in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places in Indooroopilly at the 2012 Queensland state election. Graceville in orange, Indooroopilly in green, Toowong in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths in Indooroopilly have been split into three parts based on key suburbs: Graceville in the south, Indooroopilly in the centre, and Toowong in the north. Graceville is on the south side of the Brisbane River, while Indooroopilly and Toowong are both on the north side.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of primary votes in all three areas, ranging from 57.6% in Toowong to 63.6% in Indooroopilly.

Labor came second, with a vote ranging from 15.9% in Indooroopilly to 21% in Graceville.

The Greens polled slightly less than Labor, but outpolled Labor in Indooroopilly and Toowong. The Greens vote ranged from 16.9% in Graceville to 22.3% in Toowong.

The Electoral Commission does not publish two-party-preferred figures by polling place, so two-party-preferred figures in the following table and map are estimates.

Voter group LNP prim % ALP prim % GRN prim % LNP 2PP % Total % of votes
Indooroopilly 63.61 15.88 18.39 72.58 7,158 28.63
Graceville 60.30 20.95 16.92 68.18 6,491 25.96
Toowong 57.64 18.54 22.25 67.36 4,710 18.84
Other votes 60.83 19.55 17.47 69.23 6,646 26.58
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Indooroopilly at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Estimated two-party-preferred votes in Indooroopilly at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Indooroopilly at the 2012 Queensland state election.
Greens primary votes in Indooroopilly at the 2012 Queensland state election.

8 COMMENTS

  1. Scott Emerson should hold this seat. He might be potential premier, if Newman loses his seat and LNP wins the election. Although I personally think the next LNP leader will most likely be Tim Nicholls.

  2. Indooroopilly, long considered a natural Liberal seat, was often held up as emblematic of Beattie’s lopsided majorities.

    I wouldn’t think it’s on Labor’s hit list in 2015.

  4. Although based in distant Sydney, I did spend a day in Brisbane last week, all of it in the Indooroopilly electorate. Saw lots of Scott Emerson posters around the place (Sherwood / Graceville / Chelmer) and none others. I did see some Labor corflutes and a party worker at one of the train stations. My local contacts are traditional ALP supporters (“that nice Ronan Lee”) but they seem resigned to living in an LNP seat. It’s a lovely part of Brisbane.

  6. @ GNav, the greatest surprise during the strong Labor years in Qld of 2001-2009, other than the fact Labor win Clayfield for 2 terms, was that Labor managed to hold this seat for those 8 years. I can’t believe it. Ronan was very good though.

  7. Having lived in the seat between 2004 and 2007. Ronan was an effective campaigner. In 2001 he was supposed to be just a paper candidate. getting experience for future elections.

Comments are closed.