Archive for December, 2011

Queensland election guide finished

By
Ben Raue
 – December 21, 2011

Just in time for the end of the year, the Tally Room guide to the Queensland state election is now finished.

Profiles have been written for all 89 seats, as well as a summary of the last century in Queensland state politics, a summary of recent political events, and a summary of the key seats at the election.

I will continue to make updates to the lists of candidates and to the political analysis where the situation changes, and please feel free to engage in discussion in the comments section for each page.

The Queensland state election is due some time in the first half of next year, with the most likely dates being in February and March.

Now that preparations are finished for the Queensland state election, I’ll be moving on to preparing for the local government elections due in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and the Northern Territory in 2012. I’m unlikely to put together a guide for these elections as I have done for recent state and federal elections, but I will be hoping to put together new ward maps for all of those councils facing election.

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US 2012: the early primaries

By
Ben Raue
 – December 1, 2011

US presidential primaries are unlike any other election in the world. You have a massive expensive race involving a large number of candidates, where the race often hinges on small states with their own peculiarities.

It doesn’t even have much resemblance to primaries for lower levels of elected office in the United States, such as Senate, Governor or House of Representatives. Voting in primaries for Senate or the House are usually held on the one day, and thus tend to be between a smaller number of candidates.

There are a number of early states which tend to receive most of the attention, yet ultimately they only decide a small number of delegates to the parties’ conventions that will decide the parties’ candidates in August-September.

These races are far more influential because of other factors. They tend to be decisive in controlling the flow of fundraising dollars, perceptions of momentum and the perception that a candidate has the ability to attract votes in the general election. Candidates who poll above expectations can benefit from an early primary, even if they do not win the race. Similarly a candidate who was expected to easily win a primary can be hurt by a narrow loss.

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