Senate – Queensland – Australia 2019

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2019Term due to expire 2022
Fraser Anning (Independent)1 Matthew Canavan (Liberal National)
Chris Ketter (Labor) Anthony Chisholm (Labor)
Ian Macdonald (Liberal National) Pauline Hanson (One Nation)
Claire Moore (Labor) James McGrath (Liberal National)
Barry O’Sullivan (Liberal National) Amanda Stoker (Liberal National)3
Larissa Waters (Greens)2 Murray Watt (Labor)

1Fraser Anning replaced Malcolm Roberts on 10 November 2017 following the High Court ruling that Malcolm Roberts was ineligible to sit.
2Andrew Bartlett replaced Larissa Waters on 10 November 2017 following the High Court ruling that Larissa Waters was ineligible to sit. Larissa Waters returned to the Senate on 6 September 2018 after Andrew Bartlett’s resignation.
3Amanda Stoker replaced George Brandis on 21 March 2018 following George Brandis’s resignation.

History
For the vast majority of the time since proportional representation was introduced, Queensland has had a majority of Senators from right-wing parties such as the Liberals, Nationals, DLP and One Nation. Indeed, the ALP maintained a consistent number of senators for most of this period, holding four Queensland senators continuously from 1951 to 1984. They held a fifth seat from the 1984 election until 1990, when they fell back to four seats. They gained a fifth again in 2007.

From 1951 until the 1964 election, Queensland had four ALP senators, four Liberal senators and two Country Party senators. The 1964 election saw the Liberals lose a seat to the Democratic Labor Party candidate (and ex-Premier) Vince Gair. They won a second seat in 1967, which resulted in the Liberals, Country Party and DLP each holding two senate seats in Queensland, alongside four ALP senators. The 1970 election maintained the status quo.

The 1974 double dissolution saw the DLP lose both their seats, with the Liberal and Country parties each winning a third seat. The Queensland delegation remained steady at four ALP and three for each of the coalition parties until 1980, when the National Country Party lost one of their three seats to the Democrats. The 1980 election was the first time that the Coalition parties ran separate Senate tickets in Queensland, after running jointly for the previous thirty years. The 1983 double dissolution saw the Nationals win back a third seat at the expense of the Liberals, who by this point in time had begun to run on separate tickets. Throughout the 1980s the Nationals held more Senate seats in Queensland than the Liberals.

The 1984 election saw an enlargement in the Senate, with the ALP winning a fifth Senate seat for the first time and the Nationals electing a fourth senator. This balance of five ALP, four Nationals, two Liberals and a Democrat was maintained at the 1987 double dissolution election.

The 1990 election saw the Liberals overtake the Nationals. After the 1987 double dissolution the Senate had decided that two ALP, two Liberal and two National senators would have six-year terms, despite the fact that the Liberals had won half the number of seats of either other party. This gave them a boost in 1990, as they won two seats to the Nationals one, while not having any incumbents up for election. In practice this meant that the Liberals won two seats, one off the ALP and the other off the Nationals. The ALP was reduced back to four seats, and the Coalition again gained a majority of Queensland senate seats.

The 1993 election saw the Democrats win a second Queensland seat, at the expense of the Nationals. This produced a result of four each for the ALP and Liberal Party and two each for the Nationals and Democrats.

The 1993 election result was maintained in 1996, but in 1998 the Nationals lost one of their two seats to One Nation. In 2001 there were again no changes, and in 2004 the Nationals and Liberals each gained a seat, with One Nation losing their seat and one of the two Democrats being defeated. The 2007 election saw the defeat of the last remaining Democrat, producing an overall result of five senators each for the Labor and Liberal parties and two Nationals senators.

In 2010, the LNP went in to the election with four incumbent senators, and retained three of those seats. Labor maintained their two seats, and the Greens’ Larissa Waters won the first ever Greens Senate seat in Queensland.

In 2013, the LNP retained their three sitting senators, while Labor lost one of their three seats to Glenn Lazarus, running for the Palmer United Party.

2016 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal National 960,46735.3-6.14.5851
Labor 717,52426.3-2.23.4253
One Nation250,1269.2+8.61.1941
Greens 188,3236.9+0.90.8990
Liberal Democrats77,6012.8+2.20.3705
Nick Xenophon Team55,6532.0+2.00.2657
Family First52,4531.9+0.80.2504
Katter’s Australian Party48,8071.8-1.20.2330
Glenn Lazarus Team45,1491.7+1.70.2155
Animal Justice32,3061.2+0.10.1542
Sex Party/Marijuana (HEMP)30,1571.1+1.10.1440
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers29,5711.1+0.40.1412
Liberty Alliance29,3921.1+1.10.1403
Marriage Equality23,8110.9+0.90.1137
Australian Cyclists Party19,9330.7+0.70.0952
Drug Law Reform17,0600.6+0.60.0814
Democratic Labour Party15,4430.6+0.30.0737
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party14,2560.5+0.50.0681
Others115,1344.2

Preference flows
Eight seats were won on primary votes – the LNP won four seats, Labor won three and One Nation one. Larissa Waters was elected further on in the count.

We now fast forward to the last nine candidates competing for the final three seats:

  • Barry O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.6797 quotas – up 0.0946 quotas
  • Chris Ketter (ALP) – 0.5862 – up 0.1609
  • Rod McGarvie (FF) – 0.4487 – up 0.1983
  • Malcolm Roberts (ON) – 0.4456 – up 0.2515
  • Gabe Buckley (LDP) – 0.4320 – up 0.0615
  • Suzanne Grant (NXT) – 0.3358 – up 0.0701
  • Paul Bevan (AJP) – 0.3194 – up 0.1652
  • Rowell Walton (KAP) – 0.3066 – up 0.0736
  • Glenn Lazarus (GLT) – 0.2991 – up 0.0836

Malcolm Roberts had performed particularly well on the preferences up to this point, as had the Animal Justice Party.

Glenn Lazarus preferences pushed KAP ahead of AJP, and particularly helped One Nation, pushing Roberts ahead of McGarvie:

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7020
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6372
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.5124
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.4662
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4387
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.3856
  • Walton (KAP) – 0.3470
  • Bevan (AJP) – 0.3285

Animal Justice preferences helped Family First claw back some of One Nation’s lead, but Roberts still stayed in an election-winning position.

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7243
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.6878
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.5459
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.5250
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4510
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.4014
  • Walton (KAP) – 0.3612

KAP preferences helped Roberts extend his lead over Family First, and close in on Labor.

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.7757
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.7337
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.6430
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.5852
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4695
  • Grant (NXT) – 0.4429

NXT preferences pushed Ketter into the lead, while also extending Roberts

  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.8594
  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 0.8475
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.7220
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.6201
  • Buckley (LDP) – 0.4951

LDP preferences pushed the LNP over quota, while taking Labor close to winning the eleventh seat. Family First weren’t able to close the gap on One Nation, and thus Roberts won the twelfth seat:

  • O’Sullivan (LNP) – 1.0433
  • Ketter (ALP) – 0.9621
  • Roberts (ON) – 0.7764
  • McGarvie (FF) – 0.6706

Candidates

    • Liberal National
      1. Paul Scarr
      2. Susan McDonald
  • Lyle Shelton (Conservatives)
  • Larissa Waters (Greens)
  • Malcolm Roberts (One Nation)

Assessment
Labor and the LNP will likely each retain the two seats they currently hold.

The Greens (running former senator Larissa Waters) will be likely competing with Labor to win the third ‘left’ seat.

One Nation will be aiming to win back the seat they lost when Fraser Anning left the party, although the LNP will also have their eye on that seat.
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58 COMMENTS

  1. That’s democracy for you. In this case the will of Queenslanders at the polling station who voted One Nation only to have one of candidates go Independent.

  2. Daniel
    I hope you are right but I fear not. My hope is that Liberal Government re-enacts Sedition Laws and that By May Anning is facing a Sedition trial and will not be eligible to stand. Sharkey spent six months in jail in 1955 for stating thatAustralian People would welcome a Soviet invasion.

    We do not pay tax so that Anning can provide aid and comfort to far right or the likes of Jim Cairns could similarly provide aid and comfort to Communist regimes.

    ALP Greens and Government are full of winging but what action have they taken. Minimum should be losing his travel allowance for six years. As he is one of my representatives in Canberra Ibthink I would be better off being in-represented. This bloke has to be dealt with and I see no sign of Government ALP Greens or minor parties doing anything other than winge.

  3. Lance Sharkey was Secretry General of Communist Party 1948 to 1965 ???. As far as I know he is not related to Rebekah.
    He wrote the CPA manual on infiltration of Trade Unions .
    In 1955 he stated that if Soviet Army were to land in Australia they would be welcomed by Australian workers. Petrie reported that he had paid Sharkey a large amount of money from USSR £25K ??? Sharkey was charged with Sedition in 1955/56 convicted and spent 6 months in jail..

    Sedition was “ causing dissafection amongst the Queen’s subjects” subjects included aliens whilst they were located in Australia (and possibly other parts of the then Empire).
    There is no doubt in my mind that those stirring up racial hatred would have been guilty of Sedition. John Howard repealed the sedition laws as part of terrorism legislation. Sedition only requires talk terrorism laws require action.
    Sedition Laws would pick up
    Wire neo fascists advocating hatred of Islam
    Islamic fascists advocating hatred of western ideas
    Anning and Hanson seem to be able to get away with what would once have been seditious but not get picked up by race discrimination laws.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  4. Galaxy state wide QLD poll is this:

    LNP 35%
    Labor 34%
    Greens 10%
    One Nation 8%
    UAP 5%

    On these numbers if replicated in Senate voting you would have to say that the major parties winning three Senate seats would be hard. But United Australia Party polling might make One Nation nervous if they think their with in a shot of taking the last Senate seat. A lot of soft vote seems to be there which some of it will likely come back to the major parties on election day. Which still gives an element of volatility and unpredictability in this election.

    Still tipping at this stage:

    LNP: 2
    Labor: 2
    Greens: 1
    One Nation: 1

  5. One Nation will only win on these figures if KAP Country Party and DLP voters preference Ashby-Hanson. My preferences will not be finalised until close of nominations BUT UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES will Ashby-Hanson be above both majors. Therefore My preferences will go to major parties ahead of PHON. Pauline Hanson has policies which will cause growth of hatred. She and anyone who supports her must be defeated to keep our way of life.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@ bigpond.com

  6. When will Katter, Country Party DLP get around to announcing their Senate candidates.
    To have any chance you need to be campaigning early and 107 days from election is not early.
    Tally Room still states election must be held before mid May . I am reverting to my original prediction date of 2 June 2019 rather than 25 May I have been suggestin for last 8 months.

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