Menzies – Australia 2019

LIB 7.8%

Incumbent MP
Kevin Andrews, since 1991.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Menzies covers the entirety of Manningham council area as well as a small part of Maroondah council area and southern parts of the Nillumbik council area. Suburbs include Bulleen, Doncaster, Donvale, Eltham, Park Orchards, Templestowe and Warrandyte.

Redistribution
The eastern end of Menzies shifted north, losing Croydon Hills and Croydon North to Deakin. The seat jumped to the north side of the Yarra, taking in Eltham, Research, North Warrandyte and Kangaroo Ground from Jagajaga. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 10.6% to 7.8%.

History
Menzies was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. It has always been held by the Liberal Party for its short history.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Liberal candidate Neil Brown. Brown had previously held the marginal seat of Diamond Valley on two occasions, holding it from 1969 to 1972 and 1975 to 1983. He had served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1981 to 1983. Brown was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1987, and retired in 1991.

The Menzies by-election in 1991 was easily won by Liberal candidate Kevin Andrews, with no Labor candidate standing. Andrews was a strongly conservative backbencher, and pushed through a private members’ bill in 1996 overturning the Northern Territory’s euthanasia laws. Andrews has been re-elected nine times.

Andrews was appointed as a junior minister in 2001 and was promoted to Cabinet in 2003. He was originally responsible for implementing the Workchoices policy after the 2004 election, and then served as Minister for Immigration.

Andrews moved to the backbench after the 2007 election, but returned to the frontbench after Tony Abbott was elected leader in late 2009. He served as a minister in the Abbott government, but was sacked after Malcolm Turnbull replaced Abbott as Prime Minister in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Menzies is a reasonably safe seat, but has become significantly less so after the recent redistribution.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kevin Andrews Liberal 45,13351.7-7.249.8
Adam Rundell Labor 21,46824.6-1.126.9
Richard Cranston Greens 7,9219.1+0.510.4
Stephen MayneIndependent5,8636.7+6.75.7
David ClarkFamily First2,8423.3+1.13.0
Antony John HulbertAnimal Justice2,3272.7+2.72.6
Jay FranklinVoluntary Euthanasia Party9731.1+1.10.9
Ramon RobinsonIndependent7300.8-0.60.7
Informal4,6155.0

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kevin Andrews Liberal 52,84260.6-3.957.8
Adam Rundell Labor 34,41539.4+3.942.2

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Menzies have been divided into four parts: central, east, north and west. “North” covers those booths north of the Yarra.

The Liberal Party won a majority in three areas, ranging from 54.5% in the west to 62% in the east. Labor polled 51.6% in the north.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8% in the centre to 17.8% in the north.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central8.058.421,13922.2
West8.754.514,58515.3
North17.848.411,29211.8
East12.462.08,6699.1
Other votes9.660.818,63919.6
Pre-poll9.860.220,98322.0

Election results in Menzies at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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8 COMMENTS

  1. This is my comment from the last election, along with Mark Mulcair’s quite reasonable objection. Unfortunately there has been so much invasive,destructive, & controlling behaviour from pollies in the last few years Now there is the promise of infinitely more to come, so that i’ve almost become numbed to it all.

    Kevin Andrew’s revolting intervention, may affect my death, however it won’t change my life. OTH I find myself constantly driven to visceral levels of fury, rage, & impassioned disgust, at the actions of ALL politicians. They truly are constantly, changing my life, the country’s, & my children’s future, & not for the better.

    So Kevin is really nothing more than another self-important zealot, that thinks he has the right to dictate how other people live (& die).

    Ben
    Please give me an exemption from the comments policy. I really hate this bloke .
    There are only 2 reasons he still draws breath
    1/ i don’t have a fatal illness
    2/ i believe in Karma !!!

    Mark Mulcair
    Posted May 21, 2016 at 6:29 PM
    WD, there are plenty of lunatic political websites out there if you want to wish death or illness onto MPs you don’t like. You’re really not making yourself look good with this sort of stuff.

    winediamond
    Posted May 21, 2016 at 7:24 PM
    MM
    I was kidding.
    Having said that 20 years ago i was pretty enraged over his private members bill , for the NT.
    Every libertarian fibre / cell in my body !!!. I don’t think iv’e ever felt so invaded, or controlled by any other politician, or political action.
    For me, as a 9 fixation, feeling controlled is like being injected with kyrptonite !!!.

  2. It is time Kevin Andrews left the Parliament. His wishes he was back in the 1950’s. All he really is, is a guy stuck in a time warp.

    Move on, and let someone with modern thinking into the Parliament.

  3. Is Menzies a chance for Labor or another progressive party this election?

    The margin is only 8% with a really really really conservative member

  4. James

    Don’t think so. Even in 2007 (the ALP’s high point in this seat), they didn’t come close, and in 2010, it swung towards the Liberals despite that election being the ALP’s best one in Victoria. I know the boundaries have shifted since then, but the core of it is still Doncaster/Templestowe – strong affluent areas; the addition of Eltham won’t be enough.

  5. Voting against Same sex marriage will really hurt him, Hes too conservative for this Small L-Liberal electorate that supports Same Sex marriage and abortion. This will be close, Even if he survives

  6. James
    Kevin Andrews is one of only a very few Liberals who would get my vote. Stuck in 1950’s with:
    Compulsory centralised wage fixation,
    Centralised wheat wool and milk marketing
    A car industry not only growing internally but exporting to Africa and Middle East
    Abortion, sodomy, prostitution, pornography and Sedition illegal. Seditious communists jailed for their Sedition.
    All of Africa still under the rule of law
    Homeownership within reach of nearly all
    Wage Justice which enabled children to have a home to come back to after school.
    Child endowment a significant contribution to family income.
    Banks trusted by population
    Government owned power stations airlines and insurance companies.
    Quality manufactured goods produced inAustralia or imported from UK rather than from Red China as is case today.
    No wonder Andrew’s has a hankering for 1950’s.
    Murderers facing the noose
    Petrol prices regulated and sold at a few shillings a gallon (cents a litre)
    School delinquents caned into conformity
    Kids who could read write and do computations in their head without a calculator
    Jobs available for all. Remember Menzies nearly lost office in 1961 because unemployment reached 2%.
    Migrants who were welcomed and integrated.

    Is it any wonder that Kevin Andrews has a hankering for what we have lost
    Unfortunately a lot of this loss was on Liberal watch and ALP can not be blamed. His own spineless party is responsible for most of our regression into barbarity.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

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