Menzies – Australia 2019

LIB 7.8%

Incumbent MP
Kevin Andrews, since 1991.

Geography
Eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Menzies covers the entirety of Manningham council area as well as a small part of Maroondah council area and southern parts of the Nillumbik council area. Suburbs include Bulleen, Doncaster, Donvale, Eltham, Park Orchards, Templestowe and Warrandyte.

Redistribution
The eastern end of Menzies shifted north, losing Croydon Hills and Croydon North to Deakin. The seat jumped to the north side of the Yarra, taking in Eltham, Research, North Warrandyte and Kangaroo Ground from Jagajaga. These changes reduced the Liberal margin from 10.6% to 7.8%.

History
Menzies was created as part of the expansion of the House of Representatives at the 1984 election. It has always been held by the Liberal Party for its short history.

The seat was first won in 1984 by Liberal candidate Neil Brown. Brown had previously held the marginal seat of Diamond Valley on two occasions, holding it from 1969 to 1972 and 1975 to 1983. He had served as a minister in the Fraser government from 1981 to 1983. Brown was Deputy Leader of the Liberal Party from 1985 to 1987, and retired in 1991.

The Menzies by-election in 1991 was easily won by Liberal candidate Kevin Andrews, with no Labor candidate standing. Andrews was a strongly conservative backbencher, and pushed through a private members’ bill in 1996 overturning the Northern Territory’s euthanasia laws. Andrews has been re-elected nine times.

Andrews was appointed as a junior minister in 2001 and was promoted to Cabinet in 2003. He was originally responsible for implementing the Workchoices policy after the 2004 election, and then served as Minister for Immigration.

Andrews moved to the backbench after the 2007 election, but returned to the frontbench after Tony Abbott was elected leader in late 2009. He served as a minister in the Abbott government, but was sacked after Malcolm Turnbull replaced Abbott as Prime Minister in 2015.

Candidates

Assessment
Menzies is a reasonably safe seat, but has become significantly less so after the recent redistribution.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kevin Andrews Liberal 45,13351.7-7.249.8
Adam Rundell Labor 21,46824.6-1.126.9
Richard Cranston Greens 7,9219.1+0.510.4
Stephen MayneIndependent5,8636.7+6.75.7
David ClarkFamily First2,8423.3+1.13.0
Antony John HulbertAnimal Justice2,3272.7+2.72.6
Jay FranklinVoluntary Euthanasia Party9731.1+1.10.9
Ramon RobinsonIndependent7300.8-0.60.7
Informal4,6155.0

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kevin Andrews Liberal 52,84260.6-3.957.8
Adam Rundell Labor 34,41539.4+3.942.2

Booth breakdown

Polling places in Menzies have been divided into four parts: central, east, north and west. “North” covers those booths north of the Yarra.

The Liberal Party won a majority in three areas, ranging from 54.5% in the west to 62% in the east. Labor polled 51.6% in the north.

The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 8% in the centre to 17.8% in the north.

Voter groupGRN prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Central8.058.421,13922.2
West8.754.514,58515.3
North17.848.411,29211.8
East12.462.08,6699.1
Other votes9.660.818,63919.6
Pre-poll9.860.220,98322.0

Election results in Menzies at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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26 COMMENTS

  1. This is my comment from the last election, along with Mark Mulcair’s quite reasonable objection. Unfortunately there has been so much invasive,destructive, & controlling behaviour from pollies in the last few years Now there is the promise of infinitely more to come, so that i’ve almost become numbed to it all.

    Kevin Andrew’s revolting intervention, may affect my death, however it won’t change my life. OTH I find myself constantly driven to visceral levels of fury, rage, & impassioned disgust, at the actions of ALL politicians. They truly are constantly, changing my life, the country’s, & my children’s future, & not for the better.

    So Kevin is really nothing more than another self-important zealot, that thinks he has the right to dictate how other people live (& die).

    Ben
    Please give me an exemption from the comments policy. I really hate this bloke .
    There are only 2 reasons he still draws breath
    1/ i don’t have a fatal illness
    2/ i believe in Karma !!!

    Mark Mulcair
    Posted May 21, 2016 at 6:29 PM
    WD, there are plenty of lunatic political websites out there if you want to wish death or illness onto MPs you don’t like. You’re really not making yourself look good with this sort of stuff.

    winediamond
    Posted May 21, 2016 at 7:24 PM
    MM
    I was kidding.
    Having said that 20 years ago i was pretty enraged over his private members bill , for the NT.
    Every libertarian fibre / cell in my body !!!. I don’t think iv’e ever felt so invaded, or controlled by any other politician, or political action.
    For me, as a 9 fixation, feeling controlled is like being injected with kyrptonite !!!.

  2. It is time Kevin Andrews left the Parliament. His wishes he was back in the 1950’s. All he really is, is a guy stuck in a time warp.

    Move on, and let someone with modern thinking into the Parliament.

  3. Is Menzies a chance for Labor or another progressive party this election?

    The margin is only 8% with a really really really conservative member

  4. James

    Don’t think so. Even in 2007 (the ALP’s high point in this seat), they didn’t come close, and in 2010, it swung towards the Liberals despite that election being the ALP’s best one in Victoria. I know the boundaries have shifted since then, but the core of it is still Doncaster/Templestowe – strong affluent areas; the addition of Eltham won’t be enough.

  5. Voting against Same sex marriage will really hurt him, Hes too conservative for this Small L-Liberal electorate that supports Same Sex marriage and abortion. This will be close, Even if he survives

  6. James
    Kevin Andrews is one of only a very few Liberals who would get my vote. Stuck in 1950’s with:
    Compulsory centralised wage fixation,
    Centralised wheat wool and milk marketing
    A car industry not only growing internally but exporting to Africa and Middle East
    Abortion, sodomy, prostitution, pornography and Sedition illegal. Seditious communists jailed for their Sedition.
    All of Africa still under the rule of law
    Homeownership within reach of nearly all
    Wage Justice which enabled children to have a home to come back to after school.
    Child endowment a significant contribution to family income.
    Banks trusted by population
    Government owned power stations airlines and insurance companies.
    Quality manufactured goods produced inAustralia or imported from UK rather than from Red China as is case today.
    No wonder Andrew’s has a hankering for 1950’s.
    Murderers facing the noose
    Petrol prices regulated and sold at a few shillings a gallon (cents a litre)
    School delinquents caned into conformity
    Kids who could read write and do computations in their head without a calculator
    Jobs available for all. Remember Menzies nearly lost office in 1961 because unemployment reached 2%.
    Migrants who were welcomed and integrated.

    Is it any wonder that Kevin Andrews has a hankering for what we have lost
    Unfortunately a lot of this loss was on Liberal watch and ALP can not be blamed. His own spineless party is responsible for most of our regression into barbarity.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  7. My prediction is not absurd to think Andrews is gone, Have any of you been to Menzies? Hes despised after he voted against Same-Sex despite his electorate voting for it, and even worse, This seat now contains parts of JagaJaga, which voted OVERWHELMINGLY for Same-Sex, That part of JagaJaga that became part of Menzies will likely have a massive swing against the liberals there, Due to Andrews conservative stances, This is more likely to fall than seats like Casey and Higgins and even Hasluck (Wyatt is popular), as long as the polls stay the same as now, Should be a narrow Labor gain but def will be a 1 term Member, It should go back to Liberals in 2022, Do not overestimate Andrew’s chances.

  8. Daniel has a point about this seat, not only will Eltham likely reject Andrews, but even within the former Menzies there are areas that can and do swing, Menzies could be the federal election version of Box Hill with a long time socially conservative MP in what looks like a safe seat only to be upset, I see Menzies as borderline and the Liberals do go in as favorite to hold but the ALP have a solid candidate and Andrews may have been there for a term or two too long.

  9. A few points:

    1. Box Hill – which has no overlap with Menzies – has a history of shifting back-and-forth between the two parties. Menzies does not. (The reason for Robert Dean’s unusually long tenure I explained in the Box Hill thread.)

    2. To believe the same sex referendum results presage some great realignment of Australian politics is pretty dubious. If it did then Labor front-benchers Jason Clare, Tony Burke, Chris Bowen and Ed Husic would be all endangered; and nobody believes that. We saw a similar pattern in the 1999 republican referendum when the safest Liberal seats proved to be disproportionately republican. Menzies voted 57% yes in 2017 and 60% yes in 1999. There’s no evidence that Andrews’s social conservatism will hurt him any more than his monarchism. What these two polls proved is that neither issue is a major driver of voter behaviour.

    3. Eltham is marginal territory, not safe Labor territory. And it only accounts for a small portion of the seat. Given that it was previously part of the safe Labor seat of Jagajaga there’s probably room for (relative) improvement for the Liberal vote here.

  10. this looks like a secure liberal seat……….Doncaster, Donvale and Bullen are solid liberal……. 10% is a big margin……… what was a the state election vote transposed to here? is there a state seat which overlaps here more than 70% Andrews would have to be more unpopular than the libs here by tons to lose.
    He is my age………… so he would have only been 10 in 1965……….. so he would not know that much of the 50’s

  11. It is sad the the electorate named after the liberal founder of the Liberal Party, Sir Robert Menzies, is represented by such a ultra conservative Kevin Andrews MHR. Isn’t it time that Andrew and his longer serving ilk declared that they will not be nominating for the next federal election.

  12. Daniel
    Quite correct after election margin does not matter. However before an election a small margin combined with a busy road or flat battery or rainfall or a cut finger might be the difference between an ALP or a Coalition Government for next three years.

  13. David

    1. I am aware of the differences between the federal seat of Menzies and the state seat of Box Hill, however the potential similarity is that both could be considered safe and both had long serving socially conservative MP’s at a time when those sorts of MP’s seem to be out of favor with many Liberal voters.

    2. True Eltham is marginal although recently that area has been solid ALP lending, just as Doncaster can be marginal although recently it has been solid Liberal lending.

    Of the three seats above 7% (Menzies, Higgins and Flinders) I see this as the less likely to fall however if there is a swing on then it could go although Andrews starts as favorite.

  14. Jeff Kennett is right we need fresh faces, “Mr Andrews is the endorsed Liberal candidate and is running for Menzies” Yeah we will soon see about that when he loses his seat, and theres going to be some thine regret, in the party, A successful premier that won 2 landslide victories knows what hes on about, despite his age i think he would be a good member for the parliament considering hes not like the “Crazy Conservatives” in the liberal party who would vote against Gay marriage and abortion rights in parliament despite your electorate supporing it, and Kevin is like the father of the house, Longest serving, he needs to go

  15. This not the first time stoneface Andrews has been called to go. I know last election some in the media were calling for him to step aside and give the seat to Georgina Downer.

    Looks like Andrews is going to do what Bronwyn Bishop and Senator Ian MacDonald tried to do and cling to his little bit of power as long as he can. I agree with earliar comments Liberals need to be careful Mps can overstay there welcome and get a backlash in the electorate as Wilson Tuckey found out in the seat of O’Connor on 2010.

  16. Also, there’s no way Andrews loses this, outside of the rural parts of the state, this was really the only area in the state where the libs vote stayed.

  17. why would she run in Chisholm as an independent ? she would have been endorsed as a liberal candidate for that seat.if she stands as an independant…….then it only makes sense to run in a liberal held seat with a larger margin and a right wing male mp. the two seats which fit the Bill are here and Deakin. I suspect Deakin will have a larger swing than the Victorian average and there is a excellent chance of a labor win.Here the dynamics are different because of its higher margin……. but i was just mischief making and I think this is too far away from where she is known

  18. Lachlan – you are probably correct however Andrews is no small L Liberal: he is a Papist conservative.

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