Hinkler – Australia 2019

LNP 8.4%

Incumbent MP
Keith Pitt, since 2013.

Geography
Central Queensland. Hinkler covers the city of Bundaberg and rural areas south of the city.

Redistribution
Hinkler gained a small area to the north of Maryborough from Wide Bay. This made no impact on the seat’s margin.

History
Hinkler was created in 1984. It has been held by the National Party for most of the last quarter-century. The seat was originally considered notionally Labor when it was created in 1984.

Hinkler was won in 1984 by the Nationals’ Bryan Conquest, who only held the seat until 1987, when Labor’s Brian Courtice won Hinkler. Paul Neville won the seat in 1993 and held the seat for the next twenty years.

Neville’s margin was cut to less than 2% in 2007, but a swing of 8.9% in 2010 strengthened his hold on the seat.

Neville retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Keith Pitt held onto the seat despite a small 1.3% swing back to Labor. Pitt was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

  • Richard Pascoe (Labor)
  • Assessment
    Hinkler is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

    2016 result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Keith Pitt Liberal National 38,88743.9-0.943.8
    Tim Lawson Labor 23,67826.7-0.926.7
    Damian HuxhamOne Nation16,98719.2+19.219.2
    Tim Roberts Greens 3,4773.9+1.24.0
    Stephen LynchFamily First2,2502.5+0.72.5
    Bill FosterIndependent1,7201.9+1.91.9
    Robert Owen WindredLiberty Alliance1,6701.9+1.91.9
    Others0.1
    Informal4,2584.6

    2016 two-party-preferred result

    CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
    Keith Pitt Liberal National 51,80458.4-0.658.4
    Tim Lawson Labor 36,86541.6+0.641.6

    Booth breakdown

    Booths have been divided into four areas. Hinkler covers parts of Bundaberg and Fraser Coast council areas. Those in the Fraser Coast council area, including Hervey Bay, have been grouped together. Those in Bundaberg Region have been split between those in the Bundaberg urban area, those rural booths near Bundaberg as Woongarra, and those to the south of Bundaberg as Isis (the name of the former council).

    The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 52% in Bundaberg to 63% in Isis.

    The One Nation primary vote ranged from 17.4% in Woongarra to 25.6% in Isis.

    Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
    Fraser Coast20.556.818,56120.7
    Bundaberg19.052.015,13416.9
    Woongarra17.459.77,3878.2
    Isis25.662.93,3493.7
    Other votes15.960.911,85713.2
    Pre-poll19.460.533,29937.2

    Election results in Hinkler at the 2016 federal election
    Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

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    4 COMMENTS

    1. Another seat where PHON preferences had an impact on numbers, but not the overall outcome.

    2. Bundaberg was the only seat the LNP actually picked up off Labor in the QLD state election, with quite a swing in the LNP’s favour. Hervey Bay and Burnett also had swings towards the LNP.

      I don’t see Labor winning this one, or even trying very hard.

    3. Individual seat polls aren’t worth much, but Ipsos did a poll:

      2 Party Preferred: LNP 54 (-4.4 since election) ALP 46 (+4.4)

      Primary Votes: LNP 40.8 ALP 27.3 ON 14.3 GRN 4.2 FF 1.7 Other 6.9 Undecided 4.7

      I stand by my prior comment of the seat being too fundamentally strong for the LNP who only seem to have gained popularity in this area. I don’t expect Labor to target this seat.

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