Hinkler – Australia 2019

LNP 8.4%

Incumbent MP
Keith Pitt, since 2013.

Geography
Central Queensland. Hinkler covers the city of Bundaberg and rural areas south of the city.

Redistribution
Hinkler gained a small area to the north of Maryborough from Wide Bay. This made no impact on the seat’s margin.

History
Hinkler was created in 1984. It has been held by the National Party for most of the last quarter-century. The seat was originally considered notionally Labor when it was created in 1984.

Hinkler was won in 1984 by the Nationals’ Bryan Conquest, who only held the seat until 1987, when Labor’s Brian Courtice won Hinkler. Paul Neville won the seat in 1993 and held the seat for the next twenty years.

Neville’s margin was cut to less than 2% in 2007, but a swing of 8.9% in 2010 strengthened his hold on the seat.

Neville retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Keith Pitt held onto the seat despite a small 1.3% swing back to Labor. Pitt was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Hinkler is a reasonably safe LNP seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Keith Pitt Liberal National 38,88743.9-0.943.8
Tim Lawson Labor 23,67826.7-0.926.7
Damian HuxhamOne Nation16,98719.2+19.219.2
Tim Roberts Greens 3,4773.9+1.24.0
Stephen LynchFamily First2,2502.5+0.72.5
Bill FosterIndependent1,7201.9+1.91.9
Robert Owen WindredLiberty Alliance1,6701.9+1.91.9
Others0.1
Informal4,2584.6

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Keith Pitt Liberal National 51,80458.4-0.658.4
Tim Lawson Labor 36,86541.6+0.641.6

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Hinkler covers parts of Bundaberg and Fraser Coast council areas. Those in the Fraser Coast council area, including Hervey Bay, have been grouped together. Those in Bundaberg Region have been split between those in the Bundaberg urban area, those rural booths near Bundaberg as Woongarra, and those to the south of Bundaberg as Isis (the name of the former council).

The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 52% in Bundaberg to 63% in Isis.

The One Nation primary vote ranged from 17.4% in Woongarra to 25.6% in Isis.

Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Fraser Coast20.556.818,56120.7
Bundaberg19.052.015,13416.9
Woongarra17.459.77,3878.2
Isis25.662.93,3493.7
Other votes15.960.911,85713.2
Pre-poll19.460.533,29937.2

Election results in Hinkler at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

Become a Patron!

About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.