Banks – Australia 2019

LIB 1.4%

Incumbent MP
David Coleman, since 2013.

Geography
Southern Sydney. Banks covers large parts of the St George area and neighbouring suburbs. It includes most of the Georges River council area and parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown council area. Key suburbs include East Hills, Panania, Padstow, Picnic Point, Revesby, Mortdale, Peakhurst, Penshurst, Allawah and Oatley.

History
Banks was created for the 1949 election, and was held by Labor continuously until 2013.

The seat was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate Dominic Costa. Costa held the seat for twenty years, always as a member of the opposition, retiring in 1969.

Vince Martin was elected in 1969, and held the seat until he was defeated for preselection in 1980 by John Mountford. Mountford held the seat until his retirement in 1990.

In 1990, Banks was won by Labor candidate Daryl Melham. Melham held the seat for over two decades, serving in the Opposition shadow ministry from 1996 to 1998 and again from 2001 to 2004. Successive swings against the ALP wore his margin down to 1.06% in 2004, although a favourable redistribution before the 2007 election, combined with a swing of almost 8%, made the seat much safer.

Daryl Melham narrowly held on in 2010 despite a 9% swing, and in 2013 he lost to Liberal candidate David Coleman with a further 3.3% swing. Coleman was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
Banks is a very marginal seat and could go either way. There has been a trend of the Liberal Party getting stronger in this area, relative to other parts of New South Wales, but this doesn’t rule out a Labor win if they are strengthening their position.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
David Coleman Liberal 39,42343.9-3.8
Chris Gambian Labor 35,89040.0+0.1
Philippa Clark Greens 5,2255.8+0.8
Greg BondarChristian Democratic Party4,7775.3+2.9
Sharon WuFamily First1,6211.8+1.8
Roy Owen BarnesAnimal Justice1,5551.7+1.7
Bob SpanswickIndependent1,3411.5+1.5
Informal6,6566.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
David Coleman Liberal 46,21051.4-1.4
Chris Gambian Labor 43,62248.6+1.4

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three parts: east, central and west.

The Liberal party won a 51.9% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre and east. Labor won 50.6% in the west.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
West49.423,29125.9
Central51.920,47122.8
East51.920,10122.4
Other votes52.611,50612.8
Pre-poll52.714,46316.1

Two-party-preferred votes in Banks at the 2016 federal election

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68 COMMENTS

  1. Karl
    We do not need to descend into the abyss of calling Bowen a “dumbass”. May I say he lacks the skills to manage a government budget or more likely lacks the authority to stand up to ALP Ministerial demands.

  2. Moderate

    ‘Pulled out’ – they believe they cannot win it? That is hard to believe.
    What 2016 and the state election tell us is that the Libs seem to have a well organised and cohesive organisation in this part of Sydney. That might be what it takes to get them over the line.

  3. I have been handing out at prepoll for Banks on average 2 to 3 days a week lately.. no way labor has abandoned this seat

  4. Sure guys believe what you want to believe. All you need to do is to follow Mick’s prognostications from the recent state election. That’ll fill you with confidence expat!!
    Ps Mick still waiting for that bottle of Grange from your prediction of an ALP win in Kiama/Bega/South Coast/Parramatta/Oatley/Riverstone/Penrith/Upper Hunter/Ryde (take your pick).

  5. LT Smash
    Thanks for taking the trouble for such a thoughtful response. I liked you quoting your Dad, I hope he is still with us. Sounds like he was a purveyor of the pithy wisdom, & irrefutable truths that drive sons mental !!
    Well i think your case for Labor having established an IMAGE of appearing ready for govt is very well made. Likewise the messy history of the govt. Your prognosis on how that may shape the outcome is a fair one, & well reasoned.
    My difficulty is with the whole ” disunity” debate. This is a media conflation . I went to a lecture in April with Paul Kelly, & he said that he interviewed the entire Labor frontbench in 2013 for his book. Their belief was that they were “a good govt, let down by disunity”. He went on to state that this was critical to understand why they had refused to critically review their performance as/& in govt. This is why Labor has not evolved (or reformed, transformed, or grown) in any way. Rather they propose to do more better, & different of the same (in govt). That may end up working out for them. However i doubt it will for the country.

    Much has also been made of PMs being fired. Perhaps it won’t surprise you that i’m a huge fan of incompetent PM’s going by whatever means ASAP. Moreover i believe most Australians QUIETLY agree with me on that !!. Most of the mourning has been about the mess ( i ness) not the outcome. As a Type 8 nation ( enneagram) Australia places a high value, & dedication to competence, so incompetent leaders won’t endure. We are ruthless & harsh with our leaders. A good example is again Whitlam. Even after the dismissal, the country refused him, TWICE. If you want examples of successful leaders executions Kennett, & Newman. Their harshness was perceived to have broken the social compact.

    I Believe that most voters base their vote on what will affect them most materially, to the point of assessing dollar values. Although the current hysteria on “climate change” may impact that. In the interests of brevity i’ve not done an assessment of the govt’s competence.

    Hope that does enough justice, to your well considered post
    cheers WD

  6. Mick
    would like to come & visit, buy you a drink etc. What days are you on ?.

    Moderate
    I have plenty of wine more enjoyable than Grange. You & any other posters are invited to my place any time you feel
    cheers WD

  7. Wine Diamond – agree totally re the Grange. Penfolds cash in on the name by making it every year when it is only really worth it one year in 3/4.
    Let’s have a drink, your choice, after 18.5. Shorten will make it, but the Libs in NSW will run a strong and effective campaign.

  8. Moderate
    Agreed my number is 0425 365419 . An aged St Henri (25 YRS +) kills a Grange IMHO. However Cabernet is superior generally. It is terrific that Penfolds extract so much money from foreigners for excessively priced wine, all power to their arm !!

    I repeat my invitation to all other posters
    cheers WD

  9. If anyone’s “pulled out” here it’s the Liberals who think they have Banks in the bag, and are running a pretty complacent campaign.

  10. Hey David – 2pm be been with Coleman every morning with 15-20 volunteers at railway stations from 4.45am for the past 2 months except for sitting weeks.
    I appreciate that’s a very complacent way to campaign so let’s see how it works out next Saturday??

  11. Banks will be very close… I don’t know hope Chris can win. Mr Coleman is a decent man… but you cannot disown the policies and decisions of the Atm gov

  12. Safe seat now. Liberal as long as Coleman wants it. I think we can now safely say that the Georges River area of Sydney has turned blue in the past 6 weeks…

  13. I have voted for Labor Federally,State and Local since 1972 when I began voting, but not this time and not for Shorten,Bowen and a Frontbench/Senate of Union hacks who have never had a real job and are only interested in their factions and themselves.Shorten never looked real..like he was talking to his mates down at trades hall..playing us for a bunch of mugs.If Labor had Albo as the front man they would have defeated a LNP that had torn itself apart..but they had a Questionable Union Hack with too much baggage…thought they would walk straight into the lodge and take the keys using phony class war slogans…just like Hillary Clintion..People aren’t mugs and saw straight through it….the LNP played a masterclass.

  14. I had a gut feeling the signage here was indicative of Liberal strength. The day before polling day I was walking around the Hurstville pre-poll and was certainly surprised by the number of people I saw taking Liberal HTVs while rejecting Labor’s.

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