Wendouree – Victoria 2018

ALP 5.8%

Incumbent MP
Sharon Knight, since 2014. Previously member for Ballarat West 2010-2014.

Geography
Wendouree covers the western suburbs of Ballarat, including Wendouree, Brown Hill, Delacombe, Alfredton and Redan. The seat lies entirely within the City of Ballarat.

History
The seat of Ballarat West was renamed as Wendouree in 2014 after a long history under the former name.

Ballarat West first existed as an electoral district from 1859 to 1927, and again since 1992. The original district elected two members from 1859 until 1904, when it became a single-member district. Conservative parliamentarian Matthew Baird held the seat from 1911 to 1927.

The new Ballarat West was created at the 1992 election, and was won by the Liberal Party’s Paul Jenkins. He was re-elected in 1996, but retired in 1999, and the seat was lost to the ALP’s Karen Overington. Overington was re-elected in 2002 and 2006. She increased her margin to 9% in 2002, before it fell to 6.5% in 2006.

Overington retired in 2010, and Ballarat West was won by Labor’s Sharon Knight. Knight was re-elected in the renamed seat of Wendouree in 2014.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Sharon Knight is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Wendouree is a marginal Labor seat, but would require a strong result from the Liberal Party to take the seat.

2014 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Sharon Knight Labor 15,71243.2+3.1
Craig Coltman Liberal 14,40839.7-5.1
Alice Barnes Greens 3,62910.0-0.5
Liam HastieSex Party1,3873.8+3.8
Cielo FennFamily First6531.8-1.3
John BuchholzCountry Alliance3430.9-0.6
Sheila O’SheaRise Up Australia2010.6+0.6
Informal1,8624.9

2014 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Sharon Knight Labor 20,27055.8+5.9
Craig Coltman Liberal 16,06344.2-5.9

Booth breakdown

Booths in Wendouree have been divided into four areas: central, east, north and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 54% in the west to 61% in the north.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 8% in the north to 15.2% in the centre.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East12.759.85,40214.9
West8.654.05,12614.1
North8.061.04,26711.7
Central15.257.54,21011.6
Other votes11.157.44,65112.8
Pre-poll7.952.912,67734.9

Election results in Wendouree at the 2014 Victorian state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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10 COMMENTS

  1. Another seat (like Bellarine and Monbulk) that the redistribution made notionally Liberal, but where Labor picked up a solid swing to easily hold the seat.

  2. The solid swing to Labor last time, was a result of the popular Labor MP Sharon Knight.

    The Liberal Candidate, Amy Johnson has strong name recognition from sitting on local council. A very solid choice from the Liberals.

    In contrast, Labor’s candidate Juliana Addision won’t have that same level of local support. I wouldn’t be surprised if the swing here is 4-5%. I’d suggest it’s very much in play.

  3. I’m not so sure. I tend to think that Labor has really solidified its hold on the townships of Bendigo and Ballarat – they’ve held them a very long time at both state and federal level, so there must be an underlying support beyond just personal votes for the respective members.

    Not my part of the world, so happy to defer to local knowledge, but I’d be surprised if the Libs take any of the Geelong/Ballarat/Bendigo seats.

  4. As a Ballarat local, my feeling is yes, Amy Johnson does have strong name recognition, however I think she is a polarising figure – mostly due to her aggressive opposition to a number of state government projects in Ballarat like the cycling and Mair street upgrades. She does have a significant social media presence, though I think since being announced as the Liberal candidate, it’s been subdued somewhat (not to mention she frequently blocks people questioning her policy positions on her social media pages).

  5. This seat is also experiencing significant population growth around Delacombe, which had a stronger result for Labor than the seat as a whole. So I’d say it will be quite easily retained.

  6. yes I agree with pj just as the La trobe valley has shifted against labour… Geelong Bendigo and Ballarat have moved their way at both state and federal levels

  7. James Campbell on Sky News last night claimed Liberal sources believe it may be in play. Thats where it seems to be originating from.

  8. Sometime ago I thought this would be a Liberal win, but the Liberals campaign has strike me as being flat.

    Initially I had this seat, Cranbourne, Albert Park, and the Frankston trainline as where they could make gains.

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