Following the recent Victorian state redistribution, the Coalition holds 48 seats on the new boundaries, and the ALP holds 40 seats. Those 48 Coalition seats include five seats that have Labor incumbent MPs, but the boundaries were changed to the extent that the seat has a notional Liberal margin.
There are twelve Liberal seats held by margins of less than 6%. The ALP would need to win five of these seats, and hold on to their 40 seats, to win a majority.
There are a cluster of three Liberal marginals in south-eastern Melbourne: Carrum, Frankston and Mordialloc. Carrum and Frankston are held by extremely slim 0.3% and 0.4% margins, with Mordialloc held by a 1.5% margin.
The Liberal Party also holds three seats in the eastern suburbs closer to the city: Bentleigh, Forest Hill and Prahran. Bentleigh is held by a very slim 0.9% margin, but Forest Hill and Prahran have bigger margins – 3.5% and 4.7% respectively.
There are two Liberal seats on the outer fringe of Melbourne: Yan Yean on the northern fringe, and Monbulk on the eastern fringe. Both seats have a Labor incumbent, but were redrawn into notional Liberal seats.
Recent polls suggest that the Labor vote is likely to increase, but there are still a number of Labor seats held on very slim margins that could be vulnerable. These seats are Eltham in the north-east of Melbourne, Albert Park in the inner south and Cranbourne in the south-east of Melbourne.
There is also one other seat which could be vulnerable to an independent: the Nationals seat of Morwell in eastern Victoria. A local community group named Latrobe Valley First is running an independent candidate who could challenge the local MP’s hold on the seat.