Pembroke – Tasmania LC 2013

Incumbent MLC
Vanessa Goodwin (LIB), since 2009.

Pembroke’s current and previous boundaries. 1999-2008 boundaries shown as red line, 2009-2013 boundaries shown as white area. Click to enlarge.
Pembroke’s current and previous boundaries. 1999-2008 boundaries shown as red line, 2009-2013 boundaries shown as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
Eastern shore of the Derwent River. Pembroke covers the eastern suburbs of Hobart, separated from the majority of the urban area by the river. Pembroke covers the suburbs between Otago in the north and Tranmere in the south.

Redistribution
In the 2009 redistribution, Pembroke outwards, expanding north along the shore of the Derwent to Otago, and expanding inland to cover areas along the Meehan Range.

History
Pembroke has existed as a Legislative Council seat continuously since 1856. The seat was held by independents by over 130 years, but in recent decades has been one of the few seats to be contested by the major parties.

Three generations of the Murdoch family (James Sr, James Jr and John) consecutively held the seat from 1903 to 1936. James Jr and John both won the seat on the death of their father.

Ben McKay held the seat from 1959 until his death in 1976. He was succeeded by his son Peter.

Peter McKay was elected as an independent, but joined the Liberal Party in 1991. He served as a minister from 1996 to 1998.

McKay retired in 1999, and the by-election was won by Clarence mayor Cathy Edwards, defeating Lara Giddings (who went on to become Premier).

Edwards was defeated in 2001 by Labor candidate Allison Ritchie. Ritchie was re-elected in 2007 with 42.9% of the primary vote.

In 2009, Ritchie resigned from Parliament.

The 2009 by-election was won by Liberal candidate Vanessa Goodwin.

Candidates

Assessment
Goodwin is likely to be re-elected. Support for Labor has declined since the last election, while Liberal support has increased.

2007 result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Allison RitchieALP8,51342.87
Richard JamesIND3,65018.38
Neil SmithGRN2,66213.41
Marti ZuccoIND2,33211.74
John PeersIND1,8399.26
David JacksonIND8604.33

2007 result – after distribution of preferences

CandidatePartyVotes%
Allison RitchieALP10,16151.46
Richard JamesIND6,15631.18
Neil SmithGRN3,42817.36

2009 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Vanessa GoodwinLIB7,81238.55
Wendy HeatleyGRN2,60412.85
Richard JamesIND2,28511.28
Honey BaconIND2,11010.41
John PeersIND1,9429.58
James CrottyIND1,7838.80
Peter CooperIND1,5107.45
Kit SooIND2191.08

2009 by-election result – after distribution of preferences

CandidatePartyVotes%
Vanessa GoodwinLIB10,14351.05
Richard JamesIND5,51027.73
Wendy HeatleyGRN4,21521.22
Polling places at the 2009 Pembroke by-election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.
Polling places at the 2009 Pembroke by-election. Central in green, North in orange, South in blue. Click to enlarge.

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into three areas: North, Central and South.

The table and map for the 2007 election does not take into account the redistribution. The 2009 by-election used the redistributed boundaries.

In 2007, the ALP’s primary vote was relatively consistent, varying from 43.9% in the centre to 42.4% in the south. Independent candidate Richard James (who came second on primary votes) had his highest vote in the north, and his lowest in the centre. The Greens vote varied from 12.5% in the south to 14.3% in the centre.

In 2009, the Liberal vote was much higher, with almost 44% in the south, compared to 35% in the centre and north. James’ vote varied from 14% in the north to 9.4% in the south.

2007 election breakdown

Voter groupALP %James %GRN %Total votes% of votes
North42.7419.6213.706,19831.21
Central43.9416.5514.345,39627.18
South42.3818.2012.525,14225.90
Other votes42.1219.3912.663,12015.21

2009 by-election breakdown

Voter groupLIB %GRN %James %Bacon %Total votes% of votes
North35.0312.7014.179.335,99229.57
Central34.5913.1410.3410.595,20425.68
South43.9612.349.379.144,83623.86
Other votes42.2213.2810.5113.184,23320.89
Labor primary votes in Pembroke at the 2007 election.
Labor primary votes in Pembroke at the 2007 election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richard James in Pembroke at the 2007 election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richard James in Pembroke at the 2007 election.
Greens primary votes in Pembroke at the 2007 election.
Greens primary votes in Pembroke at the 2007 election.
Liberal primary votes at the 2009 Pembroke by-election.
Liberal primary votes at the 2009 Pembroke by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2009 Pembroke by-election.
Greens primary votes at the 2009 Pembroke by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richard James at the 2009 Pembroke by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Richard James at the 2009 Pembroke by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Honey Bacon at the 2009 Pembroke by-election.
Primary votes for independent candidate Honey Bacon at the 2009 Pembroke by-election.

 

2 COMMENTS

  1. Where I lived for the first 17 years of my life. It amazes me that a liberal or liberal leaning independent candidate could win this seat at any time over the past 20 years. Generally low middle and lower socioeconomic demographics. Nevertheless, I expect that Goodwin will get up given the standing of labor at both a state and federal level and the fact that only three candidates are standing. If Alison Ritchie had not resigned for health reasons she would still be the member and probably win this time.

    Also is this the first election for a state or federal seat in Australia where all the candidates are female? Obviously guaranteeing a female member.

  2. I’m sure there have been races previously where all candidates with a serious chance of winning are female.

    I seem to remember that all the winnable Labor, Liberal and Greens candidates in East Metro at the recent WA state election were women.

Comments are closed.