Senate – Victoria – Australia 2013

Incumbent Senators

Term expires 2014 Term expires 2017
Jacinta Collins (ALP) Kim Carr (ALP)
David Feeney (ALP)Stephen Conroy (ALP)
Mitch Fifield (LIB) Richard Di Natale (GRN)
Helen Kroger (LIB)Bridget McKenzie(NAT)
Gavin Marshall (ALP)John Madigan (DLP)
Scott Ryan (LIB)Michael Ronaldson (LIB)

History
The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.

The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators.

The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators. The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators.

The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat. The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats.

In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator. At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran.

The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat. The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding.

The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator. In 2010, the Coalition lost one of their three seats, and Family First’s Steve Fielding also lost his seat. These two seats went to the Greens’ Richard Di Natale and the Democratic Labor Party’s John Madigan, shifting the split from 4-2 to the right to 3-3.

Number of Victorian Senators from each party after each Senate election, 1951-2010. Click to view interactive chart.
Number of Victorian Senators from each party after each Senate election, 1951-2010. Click to view interactive chart.

2010 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Labor1,215,21337.75-3.952.6428
Liberal/Nationals1,107,52234.41-5.092.4086
The Greens471,31714.64+4.561.0250
Family First85,0582.64+0.120.1850
Democratic Labor Party75,1452.33+1.300.1634
Australian Sex Party72,8992.26+2.260.1585
Liberal Democrats59,1161.84+1.740.1286
Shooters and Fishers44,6391.39+0.720.0971
Others87,8422.730.1912

The ALP and the Liberal Party each won two seats on primary votes, and the Greens won one seat. The final seat was decided by preferences.

After most candidates were eliminated, the final seat was a race between the third Labor candidate, the third Coalition candidate, along with candidates from the Sex Party, the Democratic Labor Party, Family First and the Liberal Democrats:

  • Antony Thow (ALP) – 0.6658 quotas
  • Julian McGauran (LIB) – 0.5171
  • John Madigan (DLP) – 0.2330
  • Fiona Patten (SXP) – 0.2328
  • Steve Fielding (FF) – 0.2141
  • Ross Currie (LDP) – 0.1361

The LDP’s preferences flowed overwhelmingly to the Sex Party’s Fiona Patten.

  • Thow (ALP) – 0.6667
  • McGauran (LIB) – 0.5188
  • Patten (SXP) – 0.3606
  • Madigan (DLP) – 0.2336
  • Fielding (FF) – 0.2192

Senator Steve Fielding was knocked out, and most of his vote flowed to the DLP’s Madigan.

  • Thow (ALP) – 0.6688
  • McGauran (LIB) – 0.5267
  • Madigan (DLP) – 0.4313
  • Patten (SXP) – 0.3716

The majority of Patten’s preferences flowed to the ALP, but enough flowed to Madigan to push him ahead of McGauran.

  • Thow (ALP) – 0.8905
  • Madigan (DLP) – 0.5694
  • McGauran (LIB) – 0.5379

McGauran’s preferences flowed overwhelmingly to the DLP, and Madigan defeated Labor by a margin of .08 of a quota.

  • Madigan (DLP) – 1.0815
  • Thow (ALP) – 0.9150
Final rounds of Victorian Senate preference distribution. Click to view interactive chart.
Final rounds of Victorian Senate preference distribution. Click to view interactive chart.

Candidates

The Coalition are running:

  1. Mitch Fifield (LIB)
  2. Scott Ryan (LIB)
  3. Helen Kroger (LIB)
  4. Martin Corboy (NAT)

The ALP are running:

  1. Gavin Marshall
  2. Jacinta Collins

The Greens are running former Mayor of Maribyrnong Janet Rice. The Wikileaks Party is running its leader Julian Assange. The Pirate Party are running Joe Miles. Katter’s Australian Party is running Robert Danieli. Family First are running Ashley Fenn. The Country Alliance is running Andrew Jones. The Stable Population Party is running Clifford Hayes. The Australian Christians are running Vickie Janson. The Palmer United Party are running Barry Michael. The Democratic Labor Party is running Mark Farrell. The 21st Century Australia Party is running Jonathan Horne. The Animal Justice Party is running Bruce Poon. The Socialist Equality Party is running Patrick O’Connor. The Secular Party is running John Perkins.

Assessment
In 2010, the left block ended up after preferences with 3.91 quotas, including the Greens, Labor and parties that preferenced them.

It is likely that there will be enough of a swing to the Liberal/National coalition to elect a third Coalition senator.

Labor should comfortably win two seats, but in the current environment are unlikely to gain ground sufficient to win a third seat.

The final seat is likely to go to the Greens, but will be challenged by the Sex Party and Julian Assange. Labor’s preferences will be important, as they will likely have a sizeable surplus.

If the Greens’ vote is close to its size in 2010, and manage to gain Labor preferences, they should win. However it is not inconceivable that the Greens will lose ground to smaller progressive parties and could be overtaken by minor parties.

75 COMMENTS

  1. Good to see that the Wikileaks Party has over 500 members so they can now be registered with the AEC. In Victoria Julian Assange will need a running mate or more for the party to be place above the line on the ballot paper. Wikileaks will have my 1st preference vote in September 2013

  2. I though John Howards recent feedle statements about the Iraq invasion 10 years ago were ridiculous. He claimed that the best intelligence said Saddam had WMD’s but the UN inspection team, prior to the invasion, said there were none. He then said that we had to fight Al Quada but Al Quada were not in Iraq in 2003. Saddam loathed Bin Laden as he was a secular dictator not a fundimentalist fanatic like Bin Laden. Howard said we had to make Iraq democratic but nothing has change after the election except one Muslim sect (Shiites) now rules over the other Muslim sect (Sunni). The Iraq economy is in a mess, violence is rampant, women are treated poorly and unemployment is high. Under Saddam at least modern education methods were available to all with women going to university, dress standard were liberal and the economy was better even with sanctions. Howard and Co did make the situation in Iraq worse for the whole population.

    In 2002/03 I knew Howard was wrong on Iraq and publically opposed the invasion. I was then suspended from the Liberal Party for 12 months in June 2003 but I never re-joined. Howard should have been arrested by the army when he decided, without going to the parliament, to invade. Howard should be put on trial of war crimes as over 100,000 Iraqis (some say 900,000)were slaughtered during and after the invasion.

    Regards, Adrian Jackson, ASM (SE Asia), DFSM & Clasp and ADM (Infantry Officer 1972-95)

    Note the Australian Service Medal (SE Asia) was for service in Malaysia in 1975 although the conflict was nearly over by then and our Rifle Companies mission was to guard the RAAF at the Butterworth Air Base (near Penang Island). The Malaysian and other Commonwealth Forces won that conflict against the Commmunist Terrorist.

    The Defence Force Service Medal is of a 15 year period of service with a clasp for each 5 years service that followed. The Australian Defence Medal is for completing ones service.

  3. I just got a telephone call tonight with a computerized questionnaire on Melbourne Ports Electorate. I think is was from the ALP as they asked would I vote for the Labor or Liberal candidate (both named) or the Green (not named but she is Ann Birrell) or Family First or Sex Party or some other candidate. It then when on to ask if Gillard or Abbott and if Labor or the Liberals were better and finally if I had a choice between only Gillard or Abbott who would I vote for. The important question is not who I would put first but who I would put last on the ballot paper and that Is MICHAEL DANBY (ALP). Wouldn’t it be a laugh if the electorate was lost to the ALP after it was first won in 1907.

  4. Adrian Jackson of Middle Park Vic

    They are checking out the preferencing. Given the national ‘other’ vote is around 9% (up from 6.6%), the ALP hope they can do better than the ~40% preference distribution they receive from ‘other’ votes.

    I personally think that sort of polling is a waste of time. The majority of people follow how to vote cards to the letter.

    Interesting that this happened in Melbourne Ports because that is on about a 7.6% margin and it’s in Victoria which is accepted to be by far the strongest polling state for the ALP at this time.

  5. Libs will be hoping for 3 quotas here. I’m not confident in 3 however. It will most likely be between the Libs or DLP for the last spot.

  6. Gavin Marshall and Jacinta Collins for Labor and Mitch Fifield and Scott Ryan for the Liberal Party should easily get elected.

    I think Janet Rice for the Greens will be fine winning a seat too, it’ll come down to Labor’s David Feeney and the Liberal Party’s Helen Kroger for the final Senate spot.

  7. I’m not fully convinced that the Coalition (more specifically the Liberal Party) will win three seats in Victoria.
    Last year, I saw reports of Kroger being dumped to third place on the Coalition Senate ticket, prompting some Senators to try to oust her as one of the Opposition Senate whips – the push against her was reportedly crushed after Abbott intervened, amid fears that any coverage of Liberal infighting would distract public attention from Labor’s woes.
    I note that the reports described third place on the Coalition Senate ticket as “vulnerable” – surely this can’t be possible given Labor’s woes, can it?!
    This makes me wonder whether the Coalition will in fact hold its three up-for-grabs seats in Victoria. I also suspect that Abbott is less popular in Victoria than some other states.

  8. Any assumption that the Liberals, or a minor right wing party, will not hold three Victorian Senate seats is ridiculous. Unlike Tasmania the Liberal party does have basses of support in places such as Mallee, and Murray which are the safest seats in the country. You could say that Labor has big majorities in south western Melbourne, but then again you only need 42.9% of the vote to elect a third senator. Think of it in this way, Victoria has always split its Senate 3L-3R, except when Steve Fielding got in due to Labor’s poor preference decision. Labor had their chance for a fourth senator in 2010, they did not make it. I have not seen a single poll the last two and a half years which has soon Labor vote stronger then in the 2010 election. Nor have I meet a single liberal voter who voted Liberal in 2010 and will vote for Labor in 2013. I agree that Tony is not popular in Victoria and only 3 Labor HOR seats are in danger of falling, but remember Tony also ran in 2010 and still crossed the 42.9 precent threshold.

  9. The Libs will pick up a third, and if current polling is any indication, depending on preferences, the Nats could pick up the last spot (4th coalition candidate) if enough support is garnished from the nationals supporter base.

  10. The Country Alliance (they seem to be a local variant of the Shooters and Fishers) are running Andrew Jones in Victoria. They got some OK results in the 2010 Vic election (including coming second in Shepparton with over 20%), so they’re worth keeping a lazy eye on. They won’t win, but their preferences might be important.

    http://www.countryalliance.org/index.php/candidates/164-federal-election-victorian-senate.html

    (Ben, these senate profile pages could use some links on the sidebar.)

  11. I’d expect a 3/2/1 split here. Hard to see the sixth seat going to a minor right party like it did last year.

  12. Probably pretty close to. They may preference the Sex Party and the rabble of socialist parties first. Is there a Pirate Party yet?

    Kelly Trantor is well known in the Hunter. I wouldn’t be surprised if WL party get as much as 2% in NSW and 4% in VIC.

  13. Depends where you think the Wikileaks votes will come from – but of the percentage of Wikileaks voters who would otherwise have voted Green probably most would go back on preferences – depending upon whether they vote above or below the line and what preference ticket Wikileaks issue

  14. Wikileaks will announce 6 Senate candidates (2 each in 3 states) tomorrow including Julian Assange in Victoria. This will mean that they can be placed above the line on the ballot paper.

  15. Adrian Jackson of Middle Park Vic: “Wikileaks will announce 6 Senate candidates (2 each in 3 states) tomorrow”

    Seemingly, middle park is in a different timezone being over the dateline to the rest of Australia when today is tomorrow! Strange that as years ago I either rode or trammed through Middle Park every day and never had to once set my clock back 24 hrs…..:)

  16. Yappo – No the announcement is from 12pm (midnight) tonight so a minute later it is tomorrow and the names will be advise then. A silly pedantic point – Yappo.

  17. Umm, I don’t wish to get into a back a forth.

    All I was doing in reply was inferring that the candidates have already been announced today as per the abc link I posted above and given other press, http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2013/julian-assange-launches-wikileaks-party-via-videolink-from-london-20130725-2qlx7.html

    Your post stated that they will be announced tomorrow. But presto, we know them already as it has been announced!

    Vic: Mr Assange, Dr Leslie Cannold, Dr Binoy Kampmark. (3 candidates in Vic, not 2)
    NSW: Kellie Tranter, Alison Broinowski
    WA: Gerry Georgatos, Suresh Rajan

    Hence, my reply…..(Btw, 12pm is NOT midnight!).

    It is all good. Let’s discuss how much impact the party will have on the Senate races.

  18. Yappo – You are correct. The announcement was at 12 Noon today but Wikileaks got the time wrong.11:59 am is 1 minute before 12:00 am (noon) and a minute later 00:01 is the first minute in pm. I suggest that the 24 hour clock be used or better still 12 Noon or 12 Midnight be used in future. The Wikileaks email to supporters was only received at 11:45 am today which was 15 minute before the noon announcement in Melbourne. Apparently their site was hacked which slowed the process I understand.

  19. Let’s stop this ridiculous discussion.

    Clearly the Wikileaks Party have already announced their candidates. And 12:00pm is noon, not 12:00am.

    I’ll delete any more comments that try to redefine the measurement of time.

  20. Assange could make this interesting. There’s probably enough of his supporters to at least make him decide the seat on preferences….

  21. Wikileaks 2nd candidate in Victoria, Dr Leslie Cannold, is well known in Melbourne and is well respected for her rational and progressive activism.

  22. A meet the Victoria Senate candidates forum is to be held, Q&A style, at 6.30pm for 7pm (be seated by 7 pm) on Monday 02 Sep 13 at St Kilda Town Hall (cnr Brighton Rd and Carlisle St, St Kilda).

    Ryan (Lib), Rice (Greens), Cannold (Wikileaks) plus at least 3 others will be present. Aging funny lefty Rod Quantock will be the MC. A local environmental group LIVE (Locals in Victoria’s Environment) are organising this forum. Google to see their website for more details.

  23. Shooters and Fishers Party and Glen Druery has totally fucked over 30 parties in the minor parties alliance that was coordinated by Glen Druery. Glen Druery for Shooters and Fishers Party did all these preference deals with heaps of parties, took all the preferences and didn’t reciprocate. They lied. I wonder what this will mean for VIC? Family First was tipped to win but they were done over by Glen Druery and Shooters and Fishers party.

  24. Shooters and Fishers Party and Glen Druery did deals with over 30 parties in the minor parties alliance coordinated by Glen Druery. It looks as though he has lied to all of them and taken their preferences. I don’t know what impact that will have on the results in VIC?

  25. Adrian and Tony. I was at the meetings on behalf of one of the smaller parties (who shall remain nameless). The minor party alliance self imploded a little as it turned into a right and left wing split, with the conservatives (eg FF and DLP) not dealing with the far lefts (Sex Party and Wiki). Drury was smart enough to put himself in the middle, and to get preferences from both sides… some say smart, others dirty.

    In context though, everyone knew that this is what Glen was doing. He called the meeting as an ‘independent consultant’ but then disclosed he was on the Shooters payroll. He also used this tactic successfully in the recent WA state election. (ie. get the micros – under 1% or new -to go to each other, then to him). Glen’s shelf life is very limited… no one will deal with him, nor believe him again – now that he’s burned more than just the LDP (who were not invited to the minor party alliance because in his words, they are not trustworthy) . The question will be whether he was good enough to get the Shooters a seat in the Senate 2013? Not sure, as I’m not convinced the Shooters will get enough of a primary anywhere to do damage.

    In the end, it was the best organised and the smartest negotiators who did well. Sorry Tony, but One Nation just didn’t work hard enough to get the preference deals they needed…

    Tony, regarding Vic, don’t underestimate Ashley Fenn, he is very sharp and if you look at the results, he has the entire right and most of the middle (including 50% of coalition leftover) ahead of Shooters in Vic.

    As always, its about getting a strong primary vote, and then getting some luck going your way…

  26. My prediction:

    Libs 3.1 Quota (after right preferences)
    Labor 2.2 Quota (after left preferences)
    Greens 0.7 Quota (after no preferences!)

    Libs get 3, Labor get 2 and Greens get Labor left over and win seat.

  27. After examining the 2013 Senate preferences, it seems to me that the likely winner of the last Senate spot in Victoria is not even mentioned above. İt’s a centre-left party that’s likely to win with a small primary vote, as it’s been extraordinarily highly-preferenced this time by surprisingly many left, right and centre parties.

    İt’s been taboo to discuss this party on political blogs, the ABC or in the commercial media over recent years. As yet, only The Age has noticed the possible re-emergence of the party.

  28. Paul: it hasn’t been taboo to discuss the Democrats, it’s just been unnecessary. I used to vote for them, before they fell apart. I miss them, but they’re pretty much a dead party these days, and comments like that are a bit too conspiracy-theory tinfoil-hattish for my liking. The few who stayed on instead of jumping to other parties or getting out of the game are turning a bit bitter these days.

    If the Dems do get a seat by the black magic of senate ticket voting, they’ll have to figure out who exactly they represent these days, and quickly, otherwise that MP would be a one-trick wonder like Steve Fielding. Back in the day, they got seats in parliament the old-fashioned way: getting enough of the vote.

  29. This is the same party that has currently split in two with a massive fight over who the Registered Officer is, and claims about expulsions and counter-expulsions? Doesn’t sound like much of a ‘re-emergence’.

  30. Looks like Wikileaks party is about to implode!! That will pls the Greens…
    ABC’s Lyndal Curtis just tweeted;
    “Leslie Cannold has resigned as the 2nd Vic senate candidate for the Wikileaks party. Says she understands others will also resign.”

  31. All the candidates in the whole election (Senate and House of Representatives) are still on the ballot paper regardless of if they resign, stand down or die. Same with the Liberal in NSW

  32. Your statement is incorrect on death. For a HoR seat the election is cancelled in the event of a death and held at a later date.

    Which is all largely irrelevant if hardly anyone votes for you if your candidates resign and state that the party is undemocratic and lacking transparency! And this after ‘admin errors’ in lodging prefs which would already deter some potential supporters to vote for you.

    You were espousing how great Connold was earlier in the thread, “is well respected for her rational and progressive activism.” Listen to her PM interview.

  33. The surname is spelt Cannold incidentally. Yes this is a shock but Wikileaks in Victoria had 3 candidates and now they have 2 like most other minor parties standing. The two major parties have had their share of problems too this election and have sacked a candidate each.

    I voted yesterday above the line for Wikileaks in Victoria.

    Apparently some ALP Senate candidates in Victoria are not even campaigning with at least one (lower down on the ticket) overseas until mid September. The ALP in Victoria have their two siting Senators who probably will get re-elected while the rest are 2 unemployed, 1 retired and 1 staffer most of whom cant be contacted I have been told.

  34. You are missing the point Adrian. It doesn’t matter what the two majors are doing, their first 2 candidates could be sleeping in everyday and partying every night and they’d still be elected.

    The point is that Wiki is new minor party with a unique lead candidate which means it has to build a profile and support base. It has already stuffed up on the prefs front most likely deterring some potential voters who would never pref minor parties from the right.

    Now, with only 7 candidates, their 2nd highest profile candidate resigns and indicates other candidates will most likely do the same. Her resignation letter undermines much of what the party says that the are about. Wiki could be down to 3 effective candidates in the next day or two….

    You may have just wasted your vote in your haste to vote early.

  35. Can there be long-overdue expert professional analysis of the Democrats’ and Sex Party’s chances of entering the Senate for Victoria, rather than hostilty, please.

  36. The Democrats are finished just look at their results in the last few elections.

    The Sex Party’s Fiona Patten is replacing the ALP at the Senators Forum on 02 Sep 13 at St Kilda (see details at 14 Aug 13 above). The ALP arent nominate a candidate apparently (as discussed above at 21 Aug 13)

  37. The Democrats do (surprisingly) have a mathematical chance. This is how it could happen:

    Democrats get early preferences from Population, Building, Independents, anti-CSG, Animals, Bullet train, Secular, HEMP, Drug law reform, and Pirate Party. There are enough micro-parties to get the ball rolling and then they will be hoping that the drugs & pirates will bring a nice chunk of preferences with them.

    The next part is the tough part… the above alliance will need to beat Wiki/Sex combined. If the Democrat group can get to 4%+ and Sex/Wiki is just under 4% then they would jump up to near 8%.

    They would then need the micro-right to drop out, which would give them preferences from Palmer, Family First, Fishers, Shooters, Online, Sceptics, Banks, Motor, and half CEC… the only one missing is Katter. Whether that would be enough is an open question.

    It’s not likely, but it’s the only state where the Democrats have any chance.

  38. John, the most unlikely part of that is the Democrats getting to 4%, even with micro-party preferences. The Democrats got just 0.5% in 2010, which means that all of the micro-parties you mentioned would have to get around 0.35% – less, and it’s not enough for Democrats to get to 4%; more, and it’s likely that one of them gets ahead of the Democrats and knocks them out. In 2010, Building only got 0.15% of the vote; this is a typical number for micro-parties.

    The only way I see the Democrats getting into the final run is if, somehow, overflow Labor preferences get kicked to the Greens, who get a seat, and then those preferences overflow to send remaining Labor and Green preferences to Democrats (if Greens don’t win a seat and overflow, they’ll be in the final run, and Democrats will have been knocked out by then). This could, conceivably, push the Democrats high enough to start accumulating preferences from other notable minor parties (such as Sex Party – Wikileaks probably will end up a micro-party based on recent news).

    It is, indeed, possible, but it requires strong Labor and Greens performance.

  39. Thank you John and Glen for your constructive analysis.

    İ am confident that the Democrats vote will increase this time; yes, it cetainly needs to, if the Democrats are to have a chance.

    Many voters want responsible economic policy, but with progressive social policies, and many seek a constructive, negotiated political style and far more civilised, serious debate in Australia a la Andrew Wilkie.

    Australians want a Parliament that the Democrats ensured for years by allowing the properly-elected Government to govern, while also holding them accountable and improving legislation.

    İf voters find out that the Democrats do still exist, disenchanted Greens may well return, as may progressive liberals concerned about a potential Abbott Government.

    Similarly, women who contributed to the ALP’s high-water mark vote in Victoria last time and who don’t appreciate Julia Gillard’s treatment may consider the Democrats.

    THe Liberal Democrats Senate vote in Victoria was extraordinarily high last time, as some voters seem to have confused the two parties.This time the Democrats are brilliantly placed at the centre-right of the ballot paper, with a full team of five candidates.

    The realistic chance of electing a Democrats Senator has the potential, in itself, to generate media coverage for the first time in years.

    The lead Senate candidate, David Collyer, is an experienced candidate, is a good public speaker and excellent media performer.

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