Lindsay – Australia 2013

ALP 1.1%

Incumbent MP
David Bradbury, since 2007.

Geography
Western Sydney. Lindsay covers most of the City of Penrith, stretching from Londonderry in the north to Mulgoa in the south.

History
Lindsay was first created as part of the 1984 expansion of the House of Representatives, and has always been held by the party of government, making it one of the longest-standing bellwether seats.

The seat was first won by the ALP’s Ross Free in 1984. Free had previously held the seat of Macquarie since 1980. Free served as a minister from 1991 until his defeat in 1996 by the Liberal Party’s Jackie Kelly.

Kelly won the seat with a swing of almost 12%, destroying Free’s margin of over 10% after the 1993 election. Kelly was disqualified from sitting in Parliament six months after winning her seat due to her RAAF employment and failure to renounce her New Zealand citizenship, and Lindsay went to a by-election seven months after the 1996 federal election, where Free suffered another swing of almost 5%.

Kelly served as a junior minister in the second Howard government and as John Howard’s Parliamentary Secretary during his third term. Kelly announced her retirement at the 2007 election, and the Liberal Party preselected Karen Chijoff, while the ALP preselected David Bradbury, a former Mayor of Penrith who had run against Kelly in 2001 and 2004.

Three days before the 2007 election, a ramshackle attempt by the Liberal Party to paint the ALP as sympathetic to terrorists was exposed in Lindsay, when ALP operatives caught Liberals red-handed distributing leaflets supposedly from an Islamic group praising the ALP for showing forgiveness to the Bali Bombers. The husbands of both the sitting member and the Liberal candidate were amongst those caught up in the scandal. The scandal dominated the final days of the campaign, and Bradbury defeated Chijoff comfortably, with a 9.7% swing.

Bradbury was re-elected in 2010 despite a swing to the Liberal Party, with Lindsay being a focus of much of the national election campaign. Bradbury has served as Assistant Treasurer since February 2012.

Candidates

  • Jeffrey Wayne Lawson (One Nation)
  • David Lenton (Greens)
  • Mick Saunders (Australia First)
  • Andrew Wilcox (Palmer United Party)
  • David Bradbury (Labor)
  • Geoff Brown (Stable Population Party)
  • Fiona Scott (Liberal)
  • Andrew Green (Christian Democratic Party)

Assessment
Lindsay is one of the most marginal seats in the country and will be a key battleground in the 2013 campaign. The seat is a totemic symbol for the Labor Party of their ability to win over the types of voters they need to win a federal election, so much so that the party has often lost perspective that Lindsay is just one seat.

Lindsay is part of a ring of Labor seats on the fringe of Sydney that will be under assault from the Liberal Party as they seek a majority.

2010 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Bradbury ALP 37,076 44.55 -6.24
Fiona Scott LIB 36,114 43.39 +4.71
Suzie Wright GRN 3,944 4.74 +1.28
Andrew Green CDP 2,502 3.01 -0.01
Geoff Brown IND 1,583 1.90 +1.90
John Phillips FF 1,032 1.24 +0.09
Mick Saunders AF 976 1.17 +1.17

2010 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
David Bradbury ALP 42,546 51.12 -5.16
Fiona Scott LIB 40,681 48.88 +5.16

Booth breakdown
Booths have been divided into six areas. Most booths lie along a narrow band between Emu Plains and St Marys. These booths have been grouped (from east to west) as St Marys, Cambridge Park, Penrith, South and Emu Plains. One booth at the southern end of the electorate has been included in South. Six booths in the north of the electorate have been grouped together.

The ALP won a majority in Penrith, Cambridge Park and St Marys, and the Liberal Party won in the south, north and Emu Plains.

Polling booths in Lindsay at the 2010 federal election. St Marys in blue, Cambridge Park in orange, Penrith in green, South in yellow, North in purple, Emu Plains in red.

Voter group GRN % ALP 2CP % Total votes % of votes
Penrith 5.54 52.39 16,581 19.92
South 3.88 45.83 12,847 15.44
Cambridge Park 4.36 56.76 10,904 13.10
St Marys 4.18 59.71 10,443 12.55
North 3.85 45.30 10,109 12.15
Emu Plains 4.78 43.84 7,518 9.03
Other votes 5.85 51.74 14,825 17.81

Two-party-preferred votes in Lindsay at the 2010 federal election.