Federal 2019 – what are your predictions?

90

We are now three days away from polls opening in the federal election, and I’ve seen a number of commenters posting their broader predictions about which seats they think will flip on Saturday, so I thought it was time to post a thread for everyone to chip in and put their predictions on the record.

If you have thoughts, please post below which seats you expect to flip – please don’t list all 151 electorates! You can refer to this pendulum as the baseline of where the parties stand before the election.

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90 COMMENTS

  1. LNP Gains:
    Lindsay
    Wentworth
    Indi
    Herbert

    Independent gains:
    Cowper
    Farrar

    ALP Gains:
    Dunkley
    Chisholm
    Corangamite
    La Trobe
    Gilmore
    Forde
    Flynn
    Dickson
    Hasluck

    Total result:
    ALP 77
    LNP 68
    Others 6

  2. Labor with comfortable majority~80. Greens to hold Melbourne and possibly also Brisbane, Higgins and either Cooper or Kooyong. They join cross bench including Wilkie, Sharkie and Katter. coalition hold on to their regional seats and western Sydney.

  3. With the LNP showing that they really did not want to win this election, by rejecting Julie Bishop as PM, I think a 10% swing against the LNP would be quite amusing. From the pendulum numbers, I estimate that (an across the board swing of 10% against the LNP) would lose the LNP about 42 seats, which, with a similar effect in the dsenate, could be quite amusing.

    The big question, would be, who would win the seats from the LNP?

    If they were all won by the Greens, and, perhaps, one or two independents, the outcome could be quite interesting…

    And, of course, if the WA Party won a few lower house seats in WA, and, maybe, a couple of senate seats, that would be even more interesting.

    As (the unfortunately, now, deceased) Doris Day used to sing, “Que sera, sera”.

  4. Based on my own version of the various tracking programs, I think the ALP could win the following from the Coalition

    BANKS
    CAPRICORNIA
    DICKSON
    FLYNN
    FORDE
    GILMORE
    HASLUCK
    LATROBE
    PETRIE
    ROBERTSON

    These were drawn from the “traditional TPP” population and the numbers behind the calls were based on a weighted average of 7 different estimates of the swing for each Division.

    Some are iffy in the extreme and there is also a swathe of TCP seats (Warringah, etc) which might offset or disrupt the above – the Coalition might pick up Bass, Indi and Wentworth, for instance.

    Such methods are no better than they ought to be and, in my case, I have only ever made two successful predictions – 1996 and 2016 (everybody got 2016 right)

    For what it’s worth these would increase the number of ALP seats from a notional 69 in 2016 to 79. The variability (SD) in the seat gains is about 2 to 4 seats depending on how I slice and dice … so anything could happen. There is a 95% chance that the ALP will have between 73 and 82 seats … so you can’t call this stuff “Science” by any stretch of the imagination. The only certainty would be Winx, but she’s been scratched.

  5. Labor 85, Coalition 60, Independent/Other 6

    Exit polls to overwhelmingly suggest climate change as a dominant issue influencing voters, which will deliver a late surge that will be the difference between a slim & comfortable victory for Shorten. Sunday papers will be writing a lot about the generation change in the electorate – i.e. the hip pocket issues of old people no longer determine election outcomes.

    A bigger than average swing in Victoria will mean the result will be called by 9.30pm.

  6. difficult….. but think in total 80 to 90 seats alp
    worst case is neutral in nsw more likely a positive gain to alp 2 seats plus
    tas worst case minus 1 alp more likely status quo
    QLD difficult to believe a swing leads to no alp gains….. like nsw 2 seats plus to alp
    Vic….. at least plus 2 to alp
    sa….. best alp plus one worst status quo
    wa….. plus 2 seats or more alp
    not worst alp minus 1 more likely neutral
    will post seperately re independents

  7. ALP to have small majority. 79 seats. 3 seats move from ALP to LNP in Bass, Herbert and possibly Lindsay. Alp to pick up4 qld seats, Gilmore and Reid in NSW. Victoria to deliver 5 extra seats to ALP and 2 in WA. A couple in SEQ.

  8. Labor 80-85 seats, coalition in the low 60s after losing safe seats to independents.

    Can’t see the LNP being returned and not losing enough seats to give the ALP government when their primary vote is in the high 30s. Think SE QLD and Eastern Melbourne will swing hard, whilst labor will pick up 2 seats in WA. Think the LNP will gain a max 3 seats this election.

  9. re sd of swing I would suggest it be based on the state swing plus or minus 3%
    so if the swing were say plus 4 alp then this could range between 1 and 7% for a indiv seat in that
    state… so in Vic this could be up to 7%
    this I think explains the results in the labour / coalition contests

  10. Labor to take Gilmore, Reid, Dickson, Deakin and Boothby. Total net 10 seats. Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Warringah to Zali. Country ones too hard to call.

  11. Righty-o. Fun times, let’s roll some dice.

    Vic – Labor start with new seat Fraser in the bag. Labor gain Dunkley, Corangamite, Chisholm. Maybe also La Trobe. Greens take Higgins (don’t really think this will happen, but let’s chuck it in there for tun). Coalition regain Indi. Macnamara is a coin toss out of who comes third out of Labor and Greens – like last time, either will overtake Ashmor on the other’s preferences.

    Qld – Coalition gain Herbert. Labor gain Forde, Petrie and Dickson.

    NSW – Coalition gain Lindsay. Oakeshott wins Cowper. Labor wins Gilmore. Mack wins Farrer.

    SA – no change.

    Tas – Coalition maybe win Braddon, but the by-election suggests the seat polling there is useless. Otherwise no change.

    NT – no change. Go Luke.

    WA – Labor to take Pearce, Hasluck and Swan.

    What’s that add up to?

  12. Qld: net +1/2 for Labor, but some Labor seats switching to the Coalition.
    Vic: +4-5 for Labor, if not more, possibly offset by 1 or 2 Greens gains in the city. But still a Liberal wipeout.
    NSW: Really tough to call, several seats sure to change hands but wouldn’t surprise me if the Coalition ends up with a net win of a couple seats.
    Tas: +0/1 Liberals
    SA: +0/1 Liberals
    WA: Maybe a couple for Labor.
    ACT: Status Quo
    NT: Status Quo

    Labor forms government with a slim majority in the lower house, high 70s/low 80s at very best. Who knows what will happen in the Senate.

  13. Here are my predictions based on the current polling and limited seat specific information.

    Very probable ALP wins
    1. Forde
    2. Dickson
    3. Petrie
    4. Gilmore
    5. Robertson
    6. Banks

    Very probable ALP losses
    1. Herbert
    2. Lindsay

    Nett ALP 4+, LNP 4-

    Very good ALP chances but still toss up
    1. Hasluck
    2. Swan
    3. Pearce
    4. Latrobe
    5. Chisolm
    6. Leichardt
    7. Bonner
    8. Reid

    Very good chances for a LNP win
    1. Wentworth
    2. Bass
    3. Braddon
    4. Solomon
    5. Indi

    Nett: ALP 4+ and 5+ (9+) LNP 4- and 3- (7-), Independent 2-

    Outside chances and upsets:
    1. Warringah – Independent
    2. Farrer – Independent
    3. Cowan – Independent
    4. Bennelong – ALP
    5. Page – ALP
    6. Kooyong – independent
    7. Mcnamara – Green
    8. Wills- Green
    9. Higgins – Green
    10. Flinders- Independent
    11. Brisbane – Green or ALP
    12. Ryan – Green
    13. Flynn – ALP
    14. Wide bay – PHON
    15. Boothby – ALP
    16. Grey – Centre alliance
    17. Sturt – ALP

    Should all of these occur you might see ALP gain a further 5 or 6 but lose 2, Greens gain 3 or 4, LNP lose 14, Independents gain 5 and other parties gain 2.

    However since the chances of each one is low, the chances of them all occurring is minuscule. Only the first 3 are really on the cards despite the hype although if Victoria swings strongly then I guess Higgins, kooyong and Flinders are all in play.

  14. Now that we have a dedicated prediction thread, I’ll simply copy/paste my prediction from the Gilmore page:

    PROBABLE ALP GAINS (4)
    Forde, Gilmore, Dickson, Chisholm

    TOSSUP ALP GAINS (4)
    Petrie, Hasluck, La Trobe, Swan

    ———————————> So using Antony Green’s calculations (which start Labor on 72), Labor gain 8 seats to put them on 80.

    PROBABLE ALP HOLDS (7)
    Cowan, Longman, Macquarie, Eden-Monaro, Bass, Solomon, Lingiari

    TOSSUP ALP HOLDS (1)
    Corangamite

    ———————————> Assuming talk of LNP gains in the above seats (however minor that talk may be) fail to materialise, Labor stay on 80.

    TOSSUP ALP LOSSES (3)
    Herbert, Lindsay, Braddon

    ———————————> I think the seats above will fall to the LNP, putting Labor on 77. Enough to form government.

    As for the Coalition:

    PROBABLE LNP HOLDS (11)
    Page, Boothby, Casey, Dawson, Sturt, Brisbane, Stirling, Deakin, Canning, Higgins, Kooyong

    TOSSUP LNP HOLDS (11)
    Capricornia, Flynn, Robertson, Banks, Bonner, Pearce, Leichhardt, Reid, Flinders, Warringah, Farrer

    ———————————> I think the LNP should hold these seats against independents/Labor. Counting Labor’s gains above (8) MINUS Labor’s losses (3), this puts the LNP on 68.

    OTHER LNP GAINS (2)
    Wentworth, Indi

    OTHER LNP LOSSES (1)
    Cowper

    ———————————> Finally, with 2 gains and 1 loss, the LNP finish on 69.

    NB: My categories merely denote *confidence*. They are not a definitive declaration. I’m certain there will be seats in the probable category that Labor win and vice versa.

  15. ALP to win:
    Corangamite
    Capricornia
    Forde
    Gilmore
    Robertson
    Banks
    Dickson
    Petrie
    Hasluck
    La Trobe
    Chisolm

    Indis to win
    Cowper
    Mayo
    Kennedy
    Clark
    Melbourne

    LNP to gain:
    Herbert
    Lindsay

    FInal tally:
    ALP majority, between 79 and 83

  16. Counting Fraser and Bean as Labor seats, Labor to pick up:

    Dunkley
    Corangamite
    Capricornia
    Forde
    Gilmore
    Robertson
    Petrie
    Dickson
    Hasluck
    Chisholm
    LaTrobe
    Swan
    Pearce
    Deakin
    Higgins

    Libs to pick up

    Herbert
    Lindsay
    Indi

    Greens to hold Melbourne, fail to pick up elsewhere.

    Clark, Kennedy, Mayo, Wentworth to stay Indie and be joined by Zali Steggal. Libs to hold on in Farrer despite losing every booth in Albury City.

  17. NSW
    Labor to GAIN Gilmore, Robertson, Page from Coalition
    Coalition to GAIN Lindsay from Labor
    Independent to RETAIN Wentworth (won from Coalition at by-election)
    Independent to GAIN Warringah, Cowper from Coalition

    VIC
    Labor to GAIN Corangamite, Dunkley, Casey, Latrobe, Chisholm from Coalition
    Labor to GAIN Fraser (new electorate)
    Coalition to GAIN Indi from Independent
    Greens to GAIN Macnamara from Labor
    Greens to GAIN Higgins from Coalition

    QLD
    Labor to GAIN Forde, Dickson, Petrie from Coalition
    Coalition to GAIN Herbert from Labor

    WA
    Labor to GAIN Swan, Hasluck from Coalition

    SA
    Labor to GAIN Boothby from Coalition
    Labor to LOSE Port Adelaide (abolished electorate)

    TAS
    Coalition to GAIN Bass from Labor

    ACT
    Labor to GAIN Bean (new electorate)

    NT
    Unchanged

    Labor = 80 seats
    Coalition = 62 seats
    Crossbench = 9 seats (4 Independent, 3 Greens, 1 Katter’s Australian Party, 1 Centre Alliance)

  18. ALP to outperform in Victoria again (let’s see if the pollsters have fixed whatever went so wrong in 2018… I doubt it). NSW to not be as bad as Newspoll aggregate suggests (as that is still washing through the state election afterglow results) especially around spots where Labor did OK in the NSW state election like Lismore. The decline of ONH and UAP votes and the fact that ONH isn’t even on the ballot in many places to manifest in better preferencing for the ALP. And maybe a little pickup from young voters being underrepresented in sampling at the moment due to the higher than expected enrolments, all adding up to:

    VICTORIA:
    Labor to gain Dunkley, Chisholm, Corangamite (despite the pork), La Trobe, Casey (flying under the radar, but last time the margin may have been inflated by the CFA issue which is no longer on the agenda and there were big swings to Labor in equivalent state booths. Redistributed down to 4.5%… got to be a big chance). Just fall short in Flinders, although I would have told you you were dreaming if you predicted in advance the state seat of Nepean would go, so who knows?

    Greens to take Kooyong. That’s my seat and Frydenberg has sent me 5 scare campaign mailouts in the last 3 days, I’ll take that as a comment that he has extremely bad internal polling.

    Greens or ALP to take Higgins. If Kooyong goes then surely Higgins goes too.

    Liberals regain Indi from Independent.

    QUEENSLAND:
    I’ll tip Labor to keep Herbert and Longman. When push comes to shove I can’t see a scenario where Labor is still getting a sizable swing in Qld (even if not as big as it looked like it could be last year) and yet a seat like Herbert goes backwards. In Herbert the preferences from the likes of One Nation, UAP and Katter will be better for the ALP than they are in the country as a whole

    Labor gain Capricornia, Flynn, Dickson, Petrie, Forde

    NSW:
    Labor gain Gilmore and Page. I think Page is another under the radar, nobody is talking about it and they should be seat. Nothing else in NSW perhaps, but the combination of low margin and Liberal imbroglios really should get Gilmore over the line and Page is ripe to buck the state trend as Lismore did at the state election.

    Labor lose Lindsay to Lib.

    Liberals regain Wentworth from Independent, lose Cowper to Independent, hold onto Farrer against Independent, lose Warringah to Independent.

    WA:
    Labor gain Hasluck and that’s it. WA is weird. The state has the best reason to disbelieve the Liberal Better Economic Manager thing and yet….

    SA:
    No change

    Tas:
    No change

    This would be a net gain of 14 seats for Labor + Green, a net loss of 14 seats for the Libs (who regain 2 seats from independents but then lose 2 different seats to independents, cancelling out).

  19. I don’t feel confident about any changes in my neck of the woods in Sydney, although I tend to think Abbott will lose his seat. There seems a good chance that Lindsay will be won by the coalition especially given the state election results. In the rest of NSW, Gilmore will likely be won by the ALP and Cowper independent.

    In Victoria, in addition to the 2 seats that the ALP gain notionally from the redistribution, they seem likely to pick up Dunkley and Chisholm. I think Higgins and Kooyong might be a bit out of reach. Greens to hold Melbourne and do very well in some seats but probably not win any others.

    Tasmania always seems to throw up surprises so maybe the coalition will pick up one of Bass or Brandon.

    The ALP gets the new seat in the ACT.

    No change in the NT.

    In WA the ALP will get Hasluck, with Stirlng and Swan possibilities but I think they have trouble voting for the centralist ALP at the federal level in the West so maybe those 2 are a bit out of reach.

    I really see Qld as the most fertile ground for change despite the commentary around its conservatism in the media. If the swing is on (and the state breakdowns from newspoll suggest it is), then Forde, Petrie and Dickson in Brisbane look certainties for the ALP, Bonner is a good chance and Brisbane or Ryan might surprise, with strong greens votes likely in those 2. In regional Qld, the coalition seem likely to pick up Herbert, and they may be able to defend Capricornia, Flynn and Dawson although I wonder if the pro/anti-adani commentary is actually as important to those voters as journalists make out. I think it might come down to those voters wanting someone who they think will stand up for them (which they don’t think either Labor or LNP does) so I expect one nation and other nut job parties to do well up there in a large protest vote. I think Leichardt might fall to the ALP although I would like to see Warren Entsch hold on.

    So a guess of low 80s for the ALP.

  20. Overall I think that the Libs *can* hang on. Overall they will have a tough time but I just get the feeling that something is amiss with the numbers from polling. We saw with the NSW Election and Trump’s election that polls may drift slightly to the left (be it either through who responds to the poll, or through people not wanting to say that they like a certain person *cough* trump) and I feel that we are in the range where it could be important.

    I don’t have many seat calls (I only really watch the seats I am/have lived in), but I will call the LNP to Hold Ryan (possibly vs Greens?) and also Capricornia, and the ALP to Gain Flynn. I don’t think anything can save Ken O’Dowd from the loss he is about to get (and needs).

  21. UAP should do well. It is the first party to support the nuclear power industry in Victoria as far as I know (see advertisement in today Melbourne newspapers) now that brown coal is declining in use. Victoria needs lots of electric power as it is cold in Winter and Melbourne is the city with the greatest population increase nationally. Canada and Australia has most of the uranium in the ground. Better it is used for electric power generation than bombs.

  22. UAP outside of some areas in Qld & possibly WA is going to be a bust – its main affect will be to reduce the possibility of One Nation gaining a Senate seat in Old through splitting the conservative protest vote.
    That split in the vote will reduce the value of preferences from these sources – they could go anywhere.

    the main difficulty the Coalition has in trying to hold on is that it is fighting on about four fronts at once:
    1. Traditional marginal seats campaigning
    2. Against dissident liberals in heartland safe Liberal seats
    3. Nationals fighting independents in normally safe rural seats
    4. Liberals fighting Green/Labor insurgencies – well funded in normally safe inner city seats
    All this stretches resources and success on one front doesn’t guarantee success on the others

    Other predictions:
    The inland National Party seats:
    Mallee
    Farrer
    Indi
    If there is a substantial swing to independents in Mallee and Farrer then I suspect Indi may just remain in independent hands and one out of the other two may go – no one knows wha will happen but the bush is cranky & baseballs bats are in demand – witness the NSW state election results across inland southern and western NSW

    Coastal National Party seats – NSW
    Cowper is a good chance to go Independent
    Page is a possibility to go Labor

    The key to what sort of election result it will be for Labor is in how many seats they lose. Possible losses seem to be: Bass, Braddon, Lindsay, Herbert, Solomon – on none of which do we have very convincing evidence so far (electorate level polls are notably patch and have tended to lean conservative). If losses are restricted to two out of these seats then I reckon they will get home with some degree of comfort.

  23. alp will poll somewhere between 49 to 51% 2pp in Qld
    this cannot happen with out yielding seats for them.

  24. RE POSTETED from Gilmore

    W OF S
    Thanks for providing me with the opportunity of plagiarising your excellent format !!.

    My prediction at this stage:

    PROBABLE ALP GAINS
    Forde, Corangmite, La Trobe, Chisholm, Hasluck

    TOSSUP ALP GAINS (1)
    Swan

    ———————————> So using Antony Green’s calculations (which start Labor on 72), Labor gain 6 seats to put them on 78

    PROBABLE ALP HOLDS (4)
    Cowan, , Macquarie, , Lingiari, Griffith,

    TOSSUP ALP HOLDS (2)
    , Bass, Longman

    ———————————> Assuming talk of LNP gains in the above seats (however minor that talk may be) fail to materialise, Labor stay on 78

    TOSSUP ALP LOSSES (5)
    Herbert, Lindsay, Braddon, Solomon, E-M

    ———————————> I think the seats above will fall to the LNP, putting Labor on 73. NOT Enough to form government.

    As for the Coalition:

    PROBABLE LNP HOLDS (12)
    Page, Boothby, Casey, Dawson, Sturt, Brisbane, Stirling, Deakin, Canning, Higgins, Kooyong Petrie

    TOSSUP LNP HOLDS (14)
    Capricornia, Flynn, Robertson, Banks, Bonner, Pearce, Leichhardt, Reid, Flinders, Warringah, Gilmore, Dickson.
    Cowper, Farrer.

    ———————————> I think the LNP should hold these seats against independents/Labor. Counting Labor’s gains above (6) MINUS Labor’s losses (5), this puts the LNP on 74.

    OTHER LNP GAINS (2)
    Wentworth, Indi

    This would lead to A lABOR govt with Bandt, Sharkey, Wilkie, & another ???
    Id expect at least 3-4 wrong calls, so the best result for ALP BEING 77 SEATS, OR visa a versa.However the outcome is far more certain than the exact numbers. Somewhat paradoxical. It is really very reminiscent of 2010. MY fundamental view is that by Saturday it will be 50-50, as momentum has been insipidly favouring the Coalition.

    Boaty 1025
    Bugger !!!. Mark Latham agrees with you too !!!. Peredicted 8 – 10 majority for Labor last night on PML. Even mentioned SEQLD same as you !!. Felt like an episode of the damn Twilight Zone !!.

    What disturbs me greatly is that i feel i’m standing on the wrong side of the fence !!. I’d rather be agreeing with Richo, & ML than to have everyone else on SKY AGREE WITH ME !!. Bugger !!!.

    Seems i’m on my own. Way, way out on a limb. Hope you are ALL happy resiling in your comfy consensus !!
    Bugger !!

  25. Two Party-Preffered: ALP 51.4% LNP 48.6%
    Primary Vote: LNP 38% – ALP 37% – GRN 10%

    NSW – Virtually no swing at all, ALP will pick up Robertson, LIBs pick up Lindsay. Independents pick up Warringah & Cowper

    VIC – Average 3% swing to Labor, ALP gain Chisholm, Corangamite, Dunkley, Flinders & La Trobe, LIBs gain Indi

    QLD – 3% swing to Labor in Brisbane, 2% swing to LNP in the rest of the state, ALP gain Dickson, Forde & Petrie, LNP gain Herbert

    WA – 2% swing to Labor, ALP gain Swan & Hasluck

    SA – <1% swing to Labor, no seats change

    TAS – 1% swing to Liberals, no seats change

    ACT – 5% swing to Labor, no seats change

    NT – 5% to the Country Liberals, no seats change

    Overall:
    ALP – 79 Seats
    Coalition – 65 Seats (36 Liberal, 9 National & 19 LNP)

    I don't expect to be correct, but this is the most likely scenario I can see happening, there are some seats like Page, Flinders, Wentworth, Solomon & Leichardt that are nearly impossible to predict.

    Best case scenario for the Coalition is 78 (Provided they hold everything & gain Lindsay, Herbert, Solomon & Braddon), best case scenario for Labor is 90 seats.

    I'm also going to tip that this will be a one term Labor government, sitting governments rarely, if ever, get swings towards them in their initial re-election campaign, and 79 seats is not a whole lot to fall back on.

  26. My predictions – and always subject to change….!!

    QLD
    Labor loss – Herbert (and even to the KAP as an outside roughy)
    Lib loss – Dickson, Forde, Petrie
    Toss up – Bonner, Longman from the ALP

    NSW
    Lib gains – Wentworth, Lindsay
    Lib Nat loss – Gilmore, Warringah (to Ind), Cowper (to ind)
    Toss up – Reid, Robertson
    Roughy – Eden Monaro possibly even to the Nats
    Farrer – I simply have no idea – count as a toss up

    VIC
    Lib/ Nat gain – Indi
    Lib Loss – Corangamite, Chisholm, La Trobe, Flinders (to the ALP), Dunkley counted as already gone.
    Toss up – Casey

    TAS
    Toss up – Braddon

    SA
    No change
    Toss up – Mayo to Libs

    NT
    No change

    WA
    ALP gains – Pearce, Hasluck
    Toss up – Swan

    So that leaves it at – ALP 77 (best 84) if all the toss ups come through
    – Lib Nat 60 (best 70)
    – Others 5 (best 7)
    – Toss ups 9

    It seems to me that the worst the ALP could do is 76

  27. Mea Culpa

    Leichhardt should have been in the toss ups list so the Labor best outcome would 85 if they won all the toss ups

  28. To Redistributed on SA – I will be surprised if Mayo is not a reasonably clear win for the current member. The visits to SA this week by both Shorten & Morrison suggests that they think Boothby may be in play.

  29. UAP might get a seat for Clive in the Senate if he’s lucky. As for Mayo, I’d put Georgina Downer’s chances of winning somewhere between zero and none.

  30. B1025 – Sorry meant House of Reps. I think CP will win a senate seat in QLD.

    Cheers

    Pollster

  31. Palmer only managed to get Fairfax in 2013 by the smallest margin – at that stage he was running his part with a centrist slant – this time he is competing with One Nation cannibalising some of that vote. He will I think be lucky to get the Senate seat in Qld – it will be a race with One Nation and the third LNP candidate – you couldn’t be confident about what the preference flows would be in trying to guess who might hold the upper hand in that race

  32. I think it will be much closer than what most commentators are predicting. Labor will make gains. But I am a bit sheepish about their prospects. ALP does not seem to have the same level of momentum compared with their last victory in the “Ruddslide” in 2007. I expect the count to be very close in the marginals and a result may not be made known for days.

    COALITION gains:
    – Herbert
    – Lindsay
    – Wentworth (from IND)
    – Indi (from IND)

    ALP gains:
    – Chisholm
    – Dunkley
    – Corrangamite
    – Casey
    – La Trobe
    – Gilmore
    – Forde
    – Dawson
    – Hasluck

    INDEPENDENT gains:
    – Warringah (yup)
    – Cowper
    – Farrer

    NET result: ALP to form government (just) with 76 seats.

  33. VIC: Labor gain: La Trobe, Corangamite, Chisholm, Dunkley, Casey, Flinders, Deakin, Fraser
    Coalition gain: Indi

    NSW: Labor gain: Reid, Gilmore
    Coalition gain: Lindsay, Wentworth
    Independent gain: Farrer, Warringah, Cowper

    QLD: Labor gain: Forde, Dickson, Petrie, Flynn, Leichardt
    Coalition gain: Herbert

    WA: Labor gain: Swan, Hasluck

    SA/TAS/NT: No change (Labor lose Port Adelaide)

    ACT: Labor gain Canberra/Bean (whichever considered new seat)

    I believe this leaves Coalition with 59 seats and Labor with 84.

    Real toss ups will be: Deakin, Casey, Flinders, Reid, Farrer, Warringah, Flynn, Leichardt.

  34. Senate predictions:

    NSW 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN (No decent challenges to LNP on the right)

    VIC 2 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 GRN, 1 Hinch (tough state to call. It’s somewhat possible the high ALP vote will mean the Greens will miss out or even that a 4-2 left right split of 3ALP 2LNP 1GRN could happen. Hinch might also underperform. Nevertheless, I still think a fairly similar spread of votes as at last election will happen)

    QLD 2LNP, 2ALP, 1 PHON, 1GRN (Palmer to be left red faced with nothing to show for all his big spending. ALP primary not high enough to win a third but high enough to push the Greens over the line)

    WA 3LIB, 2ALP 1GRN (standard WA outcome)

    SA 3LIB, 2ALP 1 GRN (Tough to call. Could even be 3LIB 3ALP or Centre Alliance and the Greens could both get up. As a South Australian I’m just not observing much Centre Alliance activity though)

    TAS 2LIB, 2ALP, 1GRN, 1 Lambie (I expect a similar result to last time)

    ACT LIB 1 ALP 1

    NT CLP 1 ALP 1

  35. My predictions:

    Queensland
    ALP Gains – Forde
    LNP Gains – Herbert
    Possible ALP Gains – Petrie, Dickson.

    It’s hard to see Labor winning any of the central or north Queensland seats, with the Adani Coal mine in play, and a plethora of right wing parties contesting those seats and preferencing the LNP. Warren Entsch has a big personal vote in Leichhardt and should be returned there.

    SE QLD presents a few opportunities, but appears to be patchy. Bonner flipped dramatically several days ago with all of the bookies from a likely ALP Gain to a likely LNP hold (I don’t know what’s going on there), and Brisbane has never really seemed to be in the picture as a seat in play.

    NSW
    ALP Gains – Gilmore, Reid
    Liberal Gains – Lindsay, Wentworth (v Independent)
    Possible Labor gains – Robertson
    Independent gains – Cowper (Rob Oakeshott)
    Possible Independent Gains – Warringah (Ind v Lib), Farrer (Ind v Lib)

    Victoria
    ALP Gains – Dunkley*, Corangamite*, Chisholm, La Trobe
    * (now notionally Labor post-redistribution)
    Liberal gains – Indi (v Ind)
    Possible ALP Gains – Deakin, Flinders, Higgins
    Possible Greens Gains – Higgins (v Libs) , Macnamara (v ALP)

    Tasmania
    Possible Liberal Gains – Bradden, Bass

    ACT – no changes (Bean = ALP)
    South Australia = No changes

    Northern Territory
    Possible Country Liberal Gain – Solomon

    Western Australia
    Possible ALP Gains – Swan, Hasluck, Stirling

    Christian Porter will hold Pearce. Canning is not in play (and never was). Labor should hold Cowan. I think Labor will do well to win any seats off the Coalition, there is every chance that no seats change hands. WA is an incredibly tough State for Labor at the Federal level, and a number of Labor’s policies don’t play out that well in the West (WA has had 5 years of falling house prices, and is reasonably affluent as a whole). Swan is Labor’s best chance with Hannah Beazley running, then Hasluck. Stirling is an outside chance.

    I predict a narrow Labor win, but a Hung Parliament is not out of the question. Labor is likely to end up with more seats than the Coalition at the end of the night, but it could be close. If Labor get to 75 seats they’ll form Government (with Adam Bandt). If they get to 74 seats they’ll probably form Government (with Bandt and Wilkie) as they would still be likely to have more seats than the Coalition. If Labor drop below 74 seats then they could be in trouble.

  36. I suspect the polls are slightly underestimating Labor’s vote and my prediction for the 2PP this election is ALP 52.7% – LNP 47.3%.

    ALP – 87
    LNP – 56
    GRN – 1
    CA – 1
    IND – 6

    NSW – ALP 27, LIB 12, NAT 5, IND 3
    No substantial statewide swings in NSW but will see a few seats changing hands.
    3 x ALP gains from LIB in Page, Reid and Robertson.
    2 x IND gains from Liberal in Farrer and Wentworth
    1 x IND gain from Liberal in Warringah
    1 x LIB gain from IND in Wentworth
    1 x LIB gain from ALP in Lindsay
    Other seats to watch: Banks, Calare

    VIC – ALP 23, LIB 10, NAT 3, GRN 1, IND 1
    Big statewide swings in Victoria with comparatively few seats changing hands. Seats like Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins and Kooyong should be narrowly held by the Liberals. Probably a 50% chance of a second Greens seat in one of Higgins, Kooyong or Macnamara.
    4 x ALP gains from Liberal in Chisholm, Corangamite, Dunkley and La Trobe
    Other seats to watch: Deakin, Flinders, Goldstein, Higgins, Indi, Kooyong, Macnamara.

    QLD – LNP 15, ALP 14, IND 1
    It’s difficult to predict the result in Queensland, I think a lot of the regional marginals are going to see a splintering of the vote to the minors and it’s uncertain how their preferences will be distributed.
    6 x ALP gains from LNP in Bonner, Capricornia, Dawson, Dickson, Flynn and Petrie.
    1 x LNP gain from ALP in Herbert.
    Other seats to watch: Brisbane, Leichardt

    WA – LIB 8, ALP 8
    Labir likely to gain 3 out of their top 4 target seats with Stirling most likely to miss out.
    3 x ALP gains in Hasluck, Pearce and Swan.
    Other seat to watch: Stirling

    SA – ALP 6, LIB 3, CA 1
    Expect Sharkie to increase margin in Mayo, will be interesting to see where the Xenophon vote returns to more broadly.
    1 x ALP gain in Boothby
    Other seat to watch: Sturt

    TAS – ALP 4, IND 1
    Bass and Braddon are far from certain but would tip them to stay with Labor.
    No change

    ACT
    Nothing to see here, other than the ACT now returning a third Labor member of the HoR.
    No change

    NT
    Both Lingiari and Solomon have been suggested as being in play, however have not seen any evidence of this.
    No change

  37. NSW:

    Labor gains: Reid, Gilmore, Banks, Robertson.
    Ind gains: Warringah, Farrer, Cowper
    Liberal gains: Lindsay.
    Toss up: Page
    Other notes: Phelps retains Wentworth. Nationals retain New England and Parkes with large swings against. Greens come 2nd in Sydney (and the usual Grayndler).

    QLD:

    Labor gains: Dickson, Dawson, Petrie, Bonner, Forde, Flynn, Capricornia, Leichhardt
    Greens gain: Brisbane (if not Greens then Labor)
    Other: Labor retains Herbert. Griffith is Labor vs Green tossup. Ryan is Liberal vs Green tossup.

    Vic:

    Labor holds/gains notional Fraser, Corangamite, Dunkley.
    Labor gains La Trobe, Chisholm, Casey, Deakin.
    Liberals loses Flinders to Ind (or Labor)
    Liberals lose Higgins to Greens (or Labor)
    INDs win Indi, Mallee
    Other: Frydenberg narrowly retains Kooyong in a 2PP vs Burnside (Greens). Labor retains Wills with swing towards Greens while Greens vote collapses in Cooper.

    SA
    Centre Alliance gains Grey.
    Boothby and Barker (vs Centre Alliance) are toss ups

    WA
    Labor gain Hasluck, Swan, Pearce, Stirling
    Canning is a toss up

    ACT
    Labor “gain” Canberra, 2CP is vs Greens

    NT
    Swing against Labor in both seats but I think Labor retain both

    Senate:
    NSW: 2 ALP, 3 LNP, 1 GRN (Molan out)
    Vic: 3 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN
    QLD: 3 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN (ALP win 3rd seat due to exhausting and leaking right wing / micro party votes)
    WA: 2 ALP, 3 LNP, 1 GRN
    SA: 3 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN
    TAS: 3 ALP, 2 LNP, 1 GRN (Singh out)
    NT: 1 ALP, 1 LNP
    ACT: 1 ALP, 1 GRN (Zed’s dead baby Zed’s dead)

    And finally my special prediction:
    Labor retains Macnamara (Vic) BECAUSE Liberal Ashmor comes 3rd. Greens win the 3 Candidate Preferred vote. Psephologists will be talking about this for a long time as an example of the follies of IRV.

  38. All of these people who have been predicting a senate result for WA, of 3LNP, 2ALP, and 1Green – “As usual” – the current senators up for re-election in WA, are 1Green, 2ALP, 1PHON, and 2LNP (of which, one LNP senator is part of the gang of 43, that shafted Turnbull), and, each of the WA LNP senators and LNP MHR’s, voted against Julie Bishop for PM, as they determined that Australia should not have a prime minister from WA.

    So, both, both of the WA LNP senators who are up for re-election, and, the other LNP candidates in WA, could be struggling to be elected, in this election. In Canning, is the hasty one, who declared, effectivel, that women are only good for breeding and cooking, as they are not much good for anything else, so, whether the women of Canning, support that policy, should be interesting to see. After all, enough women in the USA, voted for the world’s (now) most pwerful serial sex offender, to make him president of that country.

    For the LNP to get three senators elected in WA, in this election, the LNP would have to gain a seat, which is about as likely as the WA Party winning all of the 6 WA senate seats. If the WA Paarty does win all six senate seats in WA, it could be interesting, but, it is highly unlikely.

    I think it more likely that the ALP hold their two senate seats, the Greens hold their current one, and win one more, and, the WA Party win two.

    An interesting observation, is that, whilst he is now obsolete, Scott Ludlam of the Greens, won the highest number of senate first preference votes, in WA, in the last two or three senate elections.

    So, it could be possible, with the Adani Carmichael coal mine being supported by the LNP/ALP coalition, as is also, apparently, the Yeelirrie (?) uranium super mine, that is also been approved upon the calling of this feral election, the Greens could possibly increase their WA senate seats won in this election, to three or four.

    Que sera, sera.

  39. Out of curiosity, what is the significance of the lines on the map?

    Is the area in WA, in the northern (about) half of WA, the seat of Durack?

    I am aware that the seat of Durack, is the biggest in the country, and has an area greater than the total of NSW, Victoria and Tasmania, together.

    Or, are the lines, proposed boundaries for a new system of states in Australia, with WA being split in half, and, other states, split into smaller states?

  40. Another aspect which may have a significant effect on the election outcome, is the issue of two controversial mines;

    at
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-16/federal-election-vote-compass-adani-mine-response/11110408
    is


    The largest-ever survey on the proposed Adani coal mine has revealed a majority of people think the multi-billion-dollar project should be scrapped but also shows a reverse NIMBY effect — the closer you get, the greater the support.

    The proposition put forward in the Vote Compass survey was: “The Adani coal mine in Queensland’s Galilee Basin should be built”.

    Across Australia 61 per cent of people answered either “strongly disagree” or “somewhat disagree” based on a representative sample of 119,682 people.

    Just 20 per cent wanted the project given the green light, responding “strongly agree” or “somewhat agree”, with 13 per cent “neutral” and five per cent “don’t know”.

    and


    In rural Queensland, 48 per cent of people want the coal mine built, with 38 per cent against.

    That support drops to 26 per cent in inner-metropolitan areas in Queensland, 30 per cent in the Northern Territory, and 20 per cent in Western Australia.

    The lowest support was seen in the inner-metropolitan areas of our capital cities (15 per cent).

    So, both the LNP and the ALP, with both supporting the mine, could lose both lower house seats, and, upper house seats, to the Greens, in various states, and, especially, in WA, especially, given that the support for that mine, is only 20% in WA, and, given that WA now (with both approvals being surreptitiously given by the feral government, upon calling the election) has, itself, the pending threat of “The Yeelirrie Uranium mine, located 500 kilometres north of Kalgoorlie in Western Australia”, with

    It would involve the clearing of up to 2,422 hectares of native vegetation.

    It is also approved to cause groundwater levels to drop by 50cm, and they would not completely recover for 200 years, according to Cameco’s environmental reports.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-26/government-approved-uranium-mine-day-before-election/11047252

    And, these two issues, are in addition to international entities emphasising that the LNP and the ALP are showing significant disregard for the environment.

    So, at least, in WA, if not also in other states, if the voters put their votes where their mouths are, the Greens could, unexpectedly, pick up many more seats than forecast, and, have an unexpected effect on the election outcome.

  41. @Bret

    There is no significance to the lines on a map other than that within the bounds of them they contain a quota of voters, are wholly within a state/territory jurisdiction and ideally share a community of interest.

    Prior to 2007 you had the even larger seat of Kalgoorlie which covered 90% of WA north of a line from Geraldton to Esperance however O’Connor and the renamed seat of Durack had to be redrawn due to population shifts.

  42. Hi folks, long time lurker, first time poster.

    I wish I could share some of the optimism (pessimism) set out above but having just lived through a NSW election which I thought would result in a certain 39-40 ALP seats turned into a pumpkin-like 36, I genuinely expect much of the same on Saturday.

    Giving the new seats to ALP (Bean, Fraser) has them on 70 out of 151, the magic number being 76. I’m certain there’ll be at least 4 x-benchers (Kennedy, Melbourne, Clark, Mayo) and who joins them will be the key to whether the LNP get first shot at the lodge. Hold that thought.

    Starting in NSW. I’m incredulous about ALP’s odds in Gilmore. Labor has only won this seat once, in 1993, when the state primary vote was over 50%. They will never get near that ever again. 2016 was an outlier for LNP, significant boundary changes and an unpopular local member made it a toxic mix. There’s been a lot of sandbagging on the Shoalhaven in the last 3 years. This seat is not a ‘gimme’. Diane Beamer is a good candidate for ALP in Lindsay but she should’ve been there in 2016. It may be too late now. I expect a dead heat in NSW, maybe a pair of seats changing hands, one each way. Again, I’ll come back to the indies.

    Tassie spells Trouble as a look at state results make Braddon unsustainable and Bass problematic. The indie running in the by election skewed things a little but generals are so, so different. ALP -1 at least.

    SA is no change. Boothby has been a blue seat since 1949, every so often after a redistribution, people get excited and some novelty candidate is thrown up as a big chance only to fizzle and fade. Nicolle Flint benefits from the sophomore surge.

    Then again I think Luke Gosling (ALP) will hold Solomon for much the same reason (the sophomore surge, that is).

    WA is tight. I expect both Anne Aly (Cowan ALP) and Ken Wyatt (Hasluck LP) to hold on – incumbency helping both. Pearce and Stirling will have minor swings but not enough to change colour. I’m putting Swan in the gain column for ALP but I accept this is more a likely than a probable gain. Let’s say it cancels out Tassie.

    Then there’s the big two.

    I expect central and north Qld to buck the trend and swing to LNP – a small swing to be sure, but enough to hold onto all their seats. In FNQ Palmer’s preference will wreck ALP in Herbert (ironic I know) and Entsch has time on his side as a popular – and so often unbeatable – local member in Leichhardt. It’s SEQ where it could get interesting. Or will it? Howarth (Petrie) and Van Manen (Forde) have proven masters at swimming against the tide. I reckon one might go but not both. Vasta is on a big enough margin to survive the swing in Bonner and, I’m sorry to say it folks, Dutton will hang on with Dickson one of the final seats to be called late next week.

    My first comment on Victoria is that since 1990 when Peacock got his big hometown swing, not more than four seats have changed hands at any federal poll. In the twenty plus years before then, it was quite the volatile state. No more. I’m including Dunkley in Labor’s four plus Chisholm, Corangamite and La Trobe. Deakin and Casey are a bridge (a suburb?) too far. And remember too, Tony Smith in Casey is a long time, popular local member who has done a good job as speaker. He might even buck the trend and pick up a small swing. I’m betting the big inner seats of MacNamara, Kooyong, Higgins and Cooper are all status quo – even if in the doubtful column on Saturday night.

    So tl;dr? At this point I have ALP 74, LNP 72 and then there’s Indi and Wentworth.

    If these two go back to LNP as expected (and I’ve really no idea), it gives LNP 74 and we’re all tied up. It then shows just how important things will be in Cowper, Farrer and Warringah. A loss of one of these could be fatal for Morrison. Or will it? All these indies claim to be ‘conservative’ (I don’t expect Oakshott to make the same mistake twice). So is this the path for the LNP to satisfy the GG they have 76 votes in the House?
    If the swing isn’t on come Saturday at 7.15 AEST, then watch these indie seats and watch them carefully. The 46th Parliament could be the most interesting (read chaotic) since 1909.

    Thanks for reading.

  43. I’m not going to make any detailed predictions about seats – it’s going to be somewhere in the 80-85 seats to Labor, and I’ll guess at least one shock win for a minor or independent…

    But I just had a thought. Much has been made of the record youth enrolment rate, but who thinks that factor has been adequately factored into the opinion polling data? This is the first federal election since the plebiscite, and it seems to me that youth are the hardest demographic to accurately poll. Could there be an accidental bias in the opinion polls as a result?

    Note: I’m not suggesting the nature of the bias – they might be overestimating the possible swing that the youth vote could cause, or they might not have factored in the swing at all. But I find it hard to believe that they’ll have perfectly adapted to the situation.

  44. I am not going to try and predict seats that I have no knowledge of so will confine myself to Queensland. Effectively Queensland will split City vs Rural . City swing to ALP and COUntry no significant swing. Rural voters know that their towns are in danger from encroaching moral and economic irresponsibility.
    Leichardt -retain by Entsch
    Herbert- Probably LNP or Katter an outside chance but unlikely
    Capricornia LNP win
    Dawson – LNP win George Christiansen will get a fright
    Flynn – LNP win
    Longman ALP win
    Petrie LNP retain
    Dickson ALP win
    Maranoa Definite LNP win
    Blair – ALP win
    Kennedy – KAP win but Bob Katter is going to have another fright. His 2 Page advert in this mornings Townsville Bulletin will be the least read political advertisement in history.
    Brisbane Greens win (Electorate should be ashamed of themselves It is a pity we can not turn off the electricity to them for 24 Hours and if that happened then there would be a Landslide Victory for Liberals.

    In Conclusion this has been the most difficult election for me to decide how to vote. In House I ended up voting for UAP because of the lack of a decent candidate (DLP Country Party or Katter) and preferencing ALP ahead of LNP Greens ONe Nation and Anning below majors,
    IN Senate DLP, Katter, then Renick from LNP then UAP, Shooters Farmers and Fishers then Ketter from ALP then Nationals from LNP, then Liberals from LNP ,then the single issue eccentrics, then nutters and racists, then the fascists finally ending up with Greens. Larissa Waters last on Ballot paper. I know that once I went to Liberals on Ballot paper that no other preference would be counited so not as much care taken after final Liberal . As for independents mot listed above only one who went above the majors was Hetty Johnson and her running mate.

    26 Groups on Senate ticket plus 10 ungrouped. and I heard something from 13 groups during the campaign. SO over half got absolutely no information to me about why they were standing and what they were standing for.

    I expect a Shorten Labor Government but I want a Senate that will block the extreme measures of ALP. IF Shorten has a mandate so do Senators elected. I expect the SEnators to exercise their mandate and block any of Shorten”s extreme measures. What he has spoken about before the election is all that he has a mandate to do.

    I have no doubt that before the end of three years I will be regretting my vote but the alternatives were just as bad.

    I spoke to a number of Young Labor and Young Liberals yesterday who had never heard of DLP and even one ALP worker who had never heard of Dr Evatt. These are political activists (not the politically disinterested) but their knowledge of politics is based on what? Their knowledge of history of Communist totalitarian parties in Australia was nil.

  45. LNP starting with 75, ALP 71 (Dunkley included) crossbench 5.

    I’ve stolen another poster’s format. Also on toss ups I will come in and make a call on Friday night/Saturday breakfast.

    NSW
    Labor gains:
    Ind gains: Farrer, Cowper
    Liberal gains: Lindsay, Wentworth
    Toss up: Dobell, Robertson, Gilmore, Reid
    Darkhorse to watch: Macquarie

    Other notes: I think status quo in Dobell and Robertson is most likely but nothing would surprise me. The split vote in Gilmore has me completely uncertain.

    QLD
    Labor gain: Dickson, Forde
    LNP gain: Herbert
    Toss up: Petrie, Flynn
    Darkhorse to watch: Longman

    Vic
    Labor gains: Corangamite, La Trobe, Chisholm
    LNP gain: Indi
    Toss Up: Flinders, Higgins, Casey
    Darkhorse to watch: Wills

    SA
    No changes
    Darkhorse: Mayo

    WA
    Labor gain Hasluck, Swan, Pearce
    LNP gain: none
    Darkhorse: Cowan

    Tasmania
    LNP Gain: Braddon, Bass

    ACT
    No change

    NT
    LNP gains: Lingari, Soloman
    Notes: Big calls but Price has traction in traditional Labor booths on top of the Territory government issue.

    73 each with 5 cross bench if toss ups sll stay with current MPs. That said I believe the toss ups will favour Labor more. My guess right now it ends up 77 Labor 69 LNP 5 crossbench.

  46. Andrew Jackson – them not knowing the DLP probably has something to do with the DLP getting just 0.02% of the house vote and less than 0.7% of the senate vote in 2016? They’re a very minor player in Australian politics, usually only ever getting more than that when people might mistake them for Labor or they get the donkey vote.

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