Close seats – Tuesday morning update

7

Sorry there was no update yesterday – I only have limited time each day and I devoted it to my takedown of electronic voting in the Guardian.

In today’s update I’m calling three more seats for the Coalition giving them 76 seats. Labor is leading and look likely to win two more, with Herbert extremely close.

These three seats that are newly called for the LNP are the Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Forde. This gives us the numbers of:

  • 76 Coalition
  • 66 Labor
  • 5 others
  • 2 leaning ALP (Cowan and Hindmarsh)
  • 1 tight (Herbert)

I’ll also try to address the topic of Melbourne Ports at the end.

SeatAbsentProvisionalPre-pollPostalCurrent Labor leadProjected Labor lead
Capricornia7064991444826-691-970
Cowan30699342756183946745
Flynn148873313571588-933-1218
Forde1544720786358-917-862
Herbert1428104314722477178-20
Hindmarsh25931599383732583850

Capricornia

We have less than 1000 postal votes remaining and my model estimates around 1000 absent votes remaining, plus between 1400 and 1800 prepoll votes. The current LNP lead of 691 is expected to grow, and considering the relatively small number of votes left to be counted it’s not possible to see Labor recovering. Called for LNP.

Cowan

Yesterday there was the big news that a bundle of 200 Greens votes (presumably mostly flowing to Labor as preferences) accidentally in the Liberal pile, and this shifted the trajectory significantly towards Labor. There are only 183 postal votes waiting to be counted, along with about 3000 absent votes and 2756 pre-poll votes. It looks likely Labor will win but I’d want some more of those votes to be counted before calling the seat.

Flynn

We are down to less than 2000 postal votes. The AEC claims to only have 1500 remaining absent votes but this is about 2000 less than were counted last time – it seems likely some more votes are yet to be reported. The LNP looks to have won this seat. Called for LNP.

Forde

Very few postal votes left over and about 3000 votes of other types. While the margin isn’t massive there’s not much room to move. Called for LNP.

Herbert

This is the closest seat in the country now. We’ve still got a few thousand postal votes remaining, along with just under 4000 absent and prepoll votes. Labor is winning a decent majority of the absent votes but narrowly lost the first batch of pre-poll votes. My model currently gives the LNP a majority of 20 votes, which is well within the margin of error. If Labor picks up ground in the pre-poll that will put them in front.

Hindmarsh

Labor look to be strengthening here after coming close to falling behind. There are very few postal votes left over, with around 4600 absent and prepoll votes yet to come in. Labor is winning the absent votes comfortably. We don’t have any pre-poll data but the model assumes a narrow Liberal majority. The model expects the Labor margin to grow from 583 votes to 850. Leaning Labor, but not ready to call.

Melbourne Ports

There was a story in Fairfax yesterday about Melbourne Ports still being in place. Unfortunately we don’t have much public data to go on. The seat will be won based on preferences which aren’t currently being recorded. All I will say is that it is possible for the Greens to overtake Labor, but is a mighty task. Beyond that we can’t do any more than note that Greens and Liberal scrutineers believe that Danby is likely to lose. Kevin Bonham has done his own analysis.

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7 COMMENTS

  1. I think we can call 149 out of 150 to the leading party and spend the rest of the week watching Herbert.
    The other 5 Divisions with current 2CP margins of less than 1000 votes have held relatively stable margins during the course of Monday’s counting and I can’t see any late rushes that may change that perception – unless we have another Cowan!
    Capricornia has 89% of the vote counted, so is almost complete.
    Cowan is only 83% counted, but with the mis-sort rectified, the margin is almost 1000 votes.
    Both Flynn and Forde now look safe for the coalition with their lead in both seats over 900 votes and both counts around the mid-80’s% mark.
    Hindmarsh is now second closest with the ALP up by 583 with almost 87% counted. It’s a lot for the coalition to peg back.

  2. Fairfax reported earlier that the Labor margin in Hindmarsh was down to 177. But when I checked this against the AEC website, the overnight margin of 583 was unchanged. When I next checked, the margin had actually increased to 603. So goodness knows where they pulled that figure from. With at least as many absentees as postals outstanding, Labor is surely home in Hindmarsh.

    In Herbert, the Labor margin is now down to 98. The way it’s going, you’d probably rather be the LNP here.

  3. DW, I’ve noticed that sometimes when you click on an individual seat on the AEC’s website, it brings up an older version of the page. I too noticed Hindmarsh was “down to 177” earlier today, but it was just a previous day’s count that hadn’t been updated.

  4. Yep. Don’t know whats going on with Herbert.

    I had a record of a 66 vote ALP lead at around 7pm on Tue night, with the following to be counted

    571 Absentees (running 52% ALP), 1,002 Provision (Unknown), 1,747 Pre-poll (running 54% LNP) and 2,696 Postal (57% LNP). Total 6,016.

    Obviously on those trends it would be a 200+ vote win to the LNP, but stranger things have happened

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