Sorry there was no update yesterday – I only have limited time each day and I devoted it to my takedown of electronic voting in the Guardian.
In today’s update I’m calling three more seats for the Coalition giving them 76 seats. Labor is leading and look likely to win two more, with Herbert extremely close.
These three seats that are newly called for the LNP are the Queensland seats of Capricornia, Flynn and Forde. This gives us the numbers of:
- 76 Coalition
- 66 Labor
- 5 others
- 2 leaning ALP (Cowan and Hindmarsh)
- 1 tight (Herbert)
I’ll also try to address the topic of Melbourne Ports at the end.
|Seat||Absent||Provisional||Pre-poll||Postal||Current Labor lead||Projected Labor lead|
We have less than 1000 postal votes remaining and my model estimates around 1000 absent votes remaining, plus between 1400 and 1800 prepoll votes. The current LNP lead of 691 is expected to grow, and considering the relatively small number of votes left to be counted it’s not possible to see Labor recovering. Called for LNP.
Yesterday there was the big news that a bundle of 200 Greens votes (presumably mostly flowing to Labor as preferences) accidentally in the Liberal pile, and this shifted the trajectory significantly towards Labor. There are only 183 postal votes waiting to be counted, along with about 3000 absent votes and 2756 pre-poll votes. It looks likely Labor will win but I’d want some more of those votes to be counted before calling the seat.
We are down to less than 2000 postal votes. The AEC claims to only have 1500 remaining absent votes but this is about 2000 less than were counted last time – it seems likely some more votes are yet to be reported. The LNP looks to have won this seat. Called for LNP.
Very few postal votes left over and about 3000 votes of other types. While the margin isn’t massive there’s not much room to move. Called for LNP.
This is the closest seat in the country now. We’ve still got a few thousand postal votes remaining, along with just under 4000 absent and prepoll votes. Labor is winning a decent majority of the absent votes but narrowly lost the first batch of pre-poll votes. My model currently gives the LNP a majority of 20 votes, which is well within the margin of error. If Labor picks up ground in the pre-poll that will put them in front.
Labor look to be strengthening here after coming close to falling behind. There are very few postal votes left over, with around 4600 absent and prepoll votes yet to come in. Labor is winning the absent votes comfortably. We don’t have any pre-poll data but the model assumes a narrow Liberal majority. The model expects the Labor margin to grow from 583 votes to 850. Leaning Labor, but not ready to call.
There was a story in Fairfax yesterday about Melbourne Ports still being in place. Unfortunately we don’t have much public data to go on. The seat will be won based on preferences which aren’t currently being recorded. All I will say is that it is possible for the Greens to overtake Labor, but is a mighty task. Beyond that we can’t do any more than note that Greens and Liberal scrutineers believe that Danby is likely to lose. Kevin Bonham has done his own analysis.