Close seats – Sunday morning update

12

I didn’t get a chance to do an update yesterday morning as I headed over to Moorebank to observe the NSW Senate count – I’ll come back to that topic soon with a post on the Senate race.

Seat summary

I’m calling Gilmore for the Coalition, as I flagged on Friday morning.

I’m also pulling Cowan back into the “very close” category from being “leaning ALP” thanks to a very poor batch of absent votes which has cut back on the Labor margin and put the Liberal Party in front in the projection.

Since I last updated, the LNP took the lead in Capricornia and Flynn, as expected. The projected lead in Capricornia has widened, but it has actually narrowed in Flynn.

My current numbers are:

  • 73 Coalition
  • 66 Labor
  • 5 others
  • 6 tight

If you take the projections at their current word, Labor would win Hindmarsh and lose the five other tight seats, although I suspect the model is overemphasising the Liberal vote in Cowan. Unless we see a major shift back to Labor on absent and pre-poll votes, it seems like we are heading for a Liberal majority government.

With Bob Katter, Andrew Wilkie and Cathy McGowan agreeing to give confidence and supply to the government, they are guaranteed of minority government. Probabilistically they are very likely to win their three remaining seats from the five outstanding seats.

Just a reminder that the first four columns of data in this spreadsheet represent the AEC’s official data on how many votes are left to be processed in each category (bearing in mind that pre-poll and absent numbers are expected to grow).

SeatAbsentProvisionalPre-pollPostalCurrent Labor leadProjected Labor lead
Capricornia201862612643367-148-852
Cowan50029733134790397-344
Flynn12507337453055-266-897
Forde1375810167295-915-700
Gilmore8081506603313-1460-1107
Herbert186111369444446302-300
Hindmarsh8611136146334502471349

Capricornia

Labor has slipped behind the LNP in Capricornia in the last two days, and the projected LNP lead has grown. We’ve also started to see absent votes counted in Capricornia, and like in 2013 these votes are favouring the LNP slightly.

Cowan

The first batch of absent votes in Cowan was very poor for Labor, which cut down on the Labor lead, and put the Liberal Party on track to win. It seems unlikely that the remaining absent votes will break in the same way, and if we see more you’d expect Labor to recover ground in the projection.

Flynn

After a long decline, Labor has fallen behind the LNP in Flynn, and I expect the LNP to probably retain the seat. The projected LNP margin has actually dropped a bit since Friday morning.

Forde

The LNP lead in Forde has grown from 687 to 915, and the projected final lead has also grown slightly.

Gilmore

I’m calling Gilmore as the 73rd Coalition seat. The Liberal lead has only grown by 144 votes, but the projected lead has also grown, and they look clearly on track to win.

Herbert

The Labor lead in Herbert has dropped from 449 to 302. I am projecting a Liberal win, but their projected lead has also dropped from 459 to 300. I can still envision a Labor win if they pick up in the remaining postal and pre-poll votes.

Hindmarsh

Labor has substantially recovered ground here since Friday – the Labor lead has grown from 68 to 247, and the projected Labor lead has substantially grown.

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12 COMMENTS

  1. My (and many others’) prediction of a close Liberal win of less than five seats (a fairly easy to hit open guess) now looks like it might happen. I didn’t pick the seats at all though.

  2. Any chance of getting the figures on the votes in each category ( postal absentee etc) that have been counted and how they fell and how many there where in each category in 2013
    Thanks
    Really like the blog
    Chad

  3. Ben – any thoughts on Melbourne Ports? (you must have … surely). Fairfax talking up some sort of upset.

  4. I would be interested to know why the percentages listed for counted votes don’t match the listed remaining votes to be counted. For example, the ABC electoral site says 82% of votes have been counted in Herbert, but above, the list says that there are about 8,500 votes to be counted – about 8.5%. Even factoring in the 5,800-odd informal votes doesn’t bring this close to 100%. Anyone got any ideas?

  5. @Chad 2013 FIRST PREFERENCES BY VOTE TYPE

    Australian Labor Party
    Ordinary 3,611,178 33.82%
    Absent 195,958 32.32%
    Prepoll 147,061 30.11%
    Postal : 339,685 30.95%

    Liberal
    Ordinary 3,392,460 31.77%
    Absent 173,528 28.62%
    Prepoll 162,630 33.30%
    Postal: 394,579 35.95%

    Liberal National Party
    Ordinary 932,724 8.73%
    Absent 47,108 7.77%
    Prepoll 41,941 8.59 %
    Postal 127,801 11.64%

    The Greens
    Ordinary 898,410 8.41%
    Prepoll 57,116 11.70%
    Absent 77,657 12.81%
    Postal 79,251 7.22%

  6. The behind the scenes chatter on Melbourne Ports, and Massive scrutineering efforts being put in by labor suggest the 2pp is close between Labor and Greens

  7. Stogy – The AEC gives the percentage of total enrolment, not the percentage of actual votes. Turnout is generally 90-95%, so the final percentage of votes counted gets to that amount, not 100%.

  8. No Monday morning update?

    Those projections seem wildly at odds with the general consensus.

    The above would give the Coalition…what…79 seats? Most of talk is sitting the Coalition at 76-77?

  9. There’ll be another update tomorrow morning.

    The above projection would give the Coalition 78. Hardly “wildly at odds”. For what it’s worth Labor has regained the projected lead in Cowan, and could still regain the lead in Herbert, which would end up as 76-77.

  10. Cheers.

    Just based the count on the above stating 6 tight with Labor only grabbing 1 from the above projections, giving the Coalition 5 on top of the 73 listed above.

    So, should have said 78.

    With so few seats left in play, the “wildly different” comment came out of the difference between common projections of 3 to the Coalition versus the 5 listed above. No offence intended.

    Thanks for the update, though, Ben.

Comments are closed.