Vic 2014 – the complicated, confusing Legislative Council

5

The current count in the Legislative Council is extremely complicated, with both major parties falling a long way short of a majority. In this post, I run through the latest in each region’s count.

But first, a summary. Labor is going to find it very hard to construct a majority. It is possible that they will require both the Greens and an alliance of small right-wingers. However it’s also possible that extra gains by Labor and vaguely progressive groups like the Sex Party and Vote 1 Local Jobs will make it slightly easier, but still very complicated.

Overall, the ALP is on track to win at least 13 seats, with the Liberal Party winning 13, the Greens winning four, and the Shooters, Sex Party and DLP each winning one.

In addition there are five races that are too close to call. In short, these are:

  • East Metro – Labor vs Greens
  • North Vic – Labor vs Country Alliance vs Shooters (two seats)
  • South Metro – Liberal vs Sex Party
  • West Vic – Shooters vs Palmer United vs Vote 1 Local Jobs (one seat)

At the moment, the combined vote of Labor and the Greens adds up to eighteen seats, with 21 needed to pass legislation. Labor could win a nineteenth centre-left seat in North Vic. If they do so, they will still need two other minor party votes. If the Shooters win in Western Victoria or Northern Victoria they would be able to bring the government up to 21 votes, but it would be hard to get the Greens and Shooters to work together.

However there is an alternative scenario where Labor and the Greens could govern with the Sex Party if they hold on to their lead in North Metro and overtake the Liberal Party in South Metro, or possibly by working with Vote 1 Local Jobs if they win a seat in Western Victoria and Labor or the Sex Party fails in Northern Victoria or South Metro respectively.

Please come along for the ride.

Eastern Metropolitan

The Liberal Party has retained their three seats, and Labor has retained one of their two seats. The final seat is a race between Labor MLC Brian Tee and Greens candidate Samantha Dunn.

In the count, the first two Liberals and the first Labor candidate were elected on primary votes, with the third Liberal and the second Labor on about 75% of a quota and the Greens on about 65% of a quota. Through most of the count, minor party preferences funnel into the Australian Christians and the Voluntary Euthanasia Party.

Voluntary Euthanasia preferences mostly flow to the Greens, taking Dunn close to a quota, with some going to the Liberal Party. The exclusion of the Christians elects both the Liberal Party and the Greens. The Greens just narrowly pass a quota, and presumably most of the 0.2 quota surplus sitting with the Liberal Party would flow to the ALP, so the margin of victory for the Greens on current votes is about 2.5% of a quota, which is definitely vulnerable.

Eastern Victoria

The result in Eastern Victoria seems reasonably clear – the ALP has retained both of their seats, while the Coalition has retained two of their three seats. The third Coalition candidate – Liberal MLC Andrew Ronalds – has lost his seat to the Shooters and Fishers candidate Jeffrey Bourman.

The second Labor candidate’s margin of victory over the Greens is 25% of a quota – which is probably enough to not change.

Northern Metropolitan

In Northern Metropolitan, the ALP has retained their two seats, the Greens have retained their one seat and the Liberal Party has held one of their two seats. The fifth seat is likely to go to the Sex Party, with an outside chance for Family First. The Sex Party’s current margin over Family First for the final seat is about 17% of a quota, which will likely be enough to hold on.

Northern Victoria

The ALP, Liberal Party and Nationals have all retained one seat in this region. The final two seats are a race between the Shooters and Fishers, the Australian Country Alliance and Labor.

On the current count, the Shooters are elected on Coalition preferences, and then Labor preferences elect the Country Alliance over the Greens. If Labor overtakes the Greens they would win on Greens preferences. This gap currently is about 0.8% of the total vote.

South Eastern Metropolitan

The ALP and the Liberal Party have each retained two seats. The fifth seat (currently held by sitting Labor MLC Lee Tarlamis) is up for grabs. That seat is likely to go to the Greens’ Nina Springle, with small chances for the Sex Party or Labor.

At the key count, the Greens are on 52% of a quota, with Labor on 47% and the Sex Party on 37%. The Sex Party’s preferences then push the Greens well ahead of Labor, and the Greens then win on Labor’s preferences.

Southern Metropolitan

The Liberal Party has definitely won two seats, and Labor and the Greens one each. The Liberal Party is likely to win the final seat, but it could go to the Sex Party.

Western Metropolitan

Western Metropolitan looks set to produce a clear result: two Labor, one Liberal, one Green, one DLP.

Western Victoria

The ALP and the Liberal Party have each retained their two seats, with the third Coalition candidate, Nationals MLC David O’Brien, definitely losing his seat.

The race for the final seat is wide open. Tom Clement’s calculator gives a 57.5% chance to the Shooters, a 19.2% chance to Vote 1 Local Jobs and a 17.1% chance to the Palmer United Party. Currently Antony Green’s calculator is predicting a win for Vote 1 Local Jobs, as the Shooters are currently on track to fall behind the LDP by 38 votes in a key round and not make it far enough to win. If the Shooters overtake the LDP, that will change.

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5 COMMENTS

  1. Farewell to David O’brien He was a good local member , once again I’m amazed how the lib/nats call it a coalition when they place two lib first ? The A.L.P has not chosen well in preferences and now it becomes a free for all , I’m hoping that the local jobs James Purcell makes the cut as he understands local government and the need to create jobs , Similar to Labors Values!

  2. Are the LC votes down for the 3 main parties? The small parties seem to have almost all polled higher than I’d expected. I actually would’ve thought the small parties may have polled worse after all of the negative publicity surrounding preference harvesting and the Senate results.

  3. Pablo, I think that the Liberals take the first two spots because the Nationals have no support in much of the electorate – this is especially so in the areas around Geelong and Ballarat.

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