The next day – preference flows and postal votes

At the time of writing, the result of yesterday’s Senate re-run in Western Australia is still up in the air, but is much clearer and easier to understand than the 2013 result.

The first two Liberal candidates (David Johnston and Michaelia Cash) and the lead Labor and Greens candidates (Joe Bullock and Scott Ludlam) will win their seats with a full quota of primary votes.

Dio Wang of the Palmer United Party sits on 0.87 quotas, and should have little trouble winning a seat.

The final seat is a race between the third Liberal candidate, Linda Reynolds, and the second Labor candidate, Louise Pratt.

At the time of writing, the ABC Senate calculator gave the final seat to Reynolds by 0.07% of the vote, which is just over 600 votes. Of course, we all now understand that this isn’t the end of the story. The addition of declaration votes is likely to increase Reynolds’ lead.

In this post I will run through what votes are left to be counted, how they might skew the result, and what preferences Reynolds and Pratt will be relying on in their race.

It appears that all votes have been counted from most polling places, leaving only declaration votes (postal, provisional, pre-poll (outside of the electorate) and absentee votes) to be counted.

The AEC has published some information about the number of declaration votes that have been issued, and it seems that the numbers of absent, provisional and pre-poll votes have dropped to 20-33% of the 2013 levels, while the number of postal votes has increased.

This should see the Liberal Party increase their vote when those postal votes are added to the count.

My projection model suggests that the Liberal Party will gain ground with the addition of declaration votes, and suggests that Linda Reynolds is in a strong position to win the final seat. Using the ABC Senate calculator, my model suggested Reynolds will win by a margin of 0.0297 quota, up substantially on the current margin of 0.0022.

Finally, I’ve looked at how preferences are due to flow from each of the parties in the election towards the three parties who end up needing those preferences: Labor, Liberal and Palmer United.

Overall, there’s a pretty clear left-right divide in how parties’ preferences flow. Left-wing minor parties have generally flowed to Labor, with a large group of right-wing parties flowing to the Liberal Party. Most of the Palmer United Party’s preferences flowed from conservative minor parties, with the exception of the Democrats.

Most parties that preferenced PUP then flowed on to the Liberal Party after PUP’s lead candidate is elected. The only exceptions are the Motoring Enthusiast Party, the Democrats and Katter’s Australian Party, who then split their votes evenly between the ALP and the Liberal Party.

GroupPartyFlows toVotes so farQuotas
AThe Wikileaks PartyALP59640.0423
BThe NationalsLIB306190.2170
CIndependent (Save ABC)ALP56080.0397
DAustralian DemocratsPUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB25640.0182
EPirate PartyALP48300.0342
FAustralian Labor PartyALP738370.5232
GAustralian Motoring Enthusiast PartyPUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB51660.0366
HFreedom and Prosperity PartyPUP, then LIB5610.0040
IVoluntary Euthanasia PartyALP60520.0429
JLiberal DemocratsLIB174250.1235
KAustralian Voice PartyPUP, then LIB8050.0057
LBuilding Australia PartyPUP, then LIB7410.0053
MMutual PartyPUP, then LIB7030.0050
NFamily First PartyPUP, then LIB70690.0501
O#Sustainable Population PartySplit 2/3 ALP, 1/3 LIB26340.0187
PPalmer United PartyPUP, then LIB1233700.8741
QAustralian Sports PartyPUP, then LIB37250.0264
RLiberalLIB508170.3601
SShooters and FishersPUP, then LIB98070.0695
THEMP PartyALP103160.0731
URepublican Party of AustraliaLIB5990.0042
VSmokers RightsLIB27480.0195
WAustralian Fishing and Lifestyle PartyLIB32900.0233
XAustralian ChristiansLIB155410.1101
YSecular Party of AustraliaALP7120.0050
ZRise Up Australia PartyLIB17770.0126
AAThe Greens (WA)ALP157820.1118
ABDLP Democratic LabourLIB20260.0144
ACKatter’s Australian PartyPUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB7980.0057
ADAnimal Justice PartyALP57960.0411
AESex PartyALP91300.0647
AFSocialist AllianceALP6430.0046
AGOutdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens)LIB19370.0137
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About Ben Raue

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.

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