The next day – preference flows and postal votes

At the time of writing, the result of yesterday’s Senate re-run in Western Australia is still up in the air, but is much clearer and easier to understand than the 2013 result.

The first two Liberal candidates (David Johnston and Michaelia Cash) and the lead Labor and Greens candidates (Joe Bullock and Scott Ludlam) will win their seats with a full quota of primary votes.

Dio Wang of the Palmer United Party sits on 0.87 quotas, and should have little trouble winning a seat.

The final seat is a race between the third Liberal candidate, Linda Reynolds, and the second Labor candidate, Louise Pratt.

At the time of writing, the ABC Senate calculator gave the final seat to Reynolds by 0.07% of the vote, which is just over 600 votes. Of course, we all now understand that this isn’t the end of the story. The addition of declaration votes is likely to increase Reynolds’ lead.

In this post I will run through what votes are left to be counted, how they might skew the result, and what preferences Reynolds and Pratt will be relying on in their race.

It appears that all votes have been counted from most polling places, leaving only declaration votes (postal, provisional, pre-poll (outside of the electorate) and absentee votes) to be counted.

The AEC has published some information about the number of declaration votes that have been issued, and it seems that the numbers of absent, provisional and pre-poll votes have dropped to 20-33% of the 2013 levels, while the number of postal votes has increased.

This should see the Liberal Party increase their vote when those postal votes are added to the count.

My projection model suggests that the Liberal Party will gain ground with the addition of declaration votes, and suggests that Linda Reynolds is in a strong position to win the final seat. Using the ABC Senate calculator, my model suggested Reynolds will win by a margin of 0.0297 quota, up substantially on the current margin of 0.0022.

Finally, I’ve looked at how preferences are due to flow from each of the parties in the election towards the three parties who end up needing those preferences: Labor, Liberal and Palmer United.

Overall, there’s a pretty clear left-right divide in how parties’ preferences flow. Left-wing minor parties have generally flowed to Labor, with a large group of right-wing parties flowing to the Liberal Party. Most of the Palmer United Party’s preferences flowed from conservative minor parties, with the exception of the Democrats.

Most parties that preferenced PUP then flowed on to the Liberal Party after PUP’s lead candidate is elected. The only exceptions are the Motoring Enthusiast Party, the Democrats and Katter’s Australian Party, who then split their votes evenly between the ALP and the Liberal Party.

Group Party Flows to Votes so far Quotas
A The Wikileaks Party ALP 5964 0.0423
B The Nationals LIB 30619 0.2170
C Independent (Save ABC) ALP 5608 0.0397
D Australian Democrats PUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB 2564 0.0182
E Pirate Party ALP 4830 0.0342
F Australian Labor Party ALP 73837 0.5232
G Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party PUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB 5166 0.0366
H Freedom and Prosperity Party PUP, then LIB 561 0.0040
I Voluntary Euthanasia Party ALP 6052 0.0429
J Liberal Democrats LIB 17425 0.1235
K Australian Voice Party PUP, then LIB 805 0.0057
L Building Australia Party PUP, then LIB 741 0.0053
M Mutual Party PUP, then LIB 703 0.0050
N Family First Party PUP, then LIB 7069 0.0501
O #Sustainable Population Party Split 2/3 ALP, 1/3 LIB 2634 0.0187
P Palmer United Party PUP, then LIB 123370 0.8741
Q Australian Sports Party PUP, then LIB 3725 0.0264
R Liberal LIB 50817 0.3601
S Shooters and Fishers PUP, then LIB 9807 0.0695
T HEMP Party ALP 10316 0.0731
U Republican Party of Australia LIB 599 0.0042
V Smokers Rights LIB 2748 0.0195
W Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party LIB 3290 0.0233
X Australian Christians LIB 15541 0.1101
Y Secular Party of Australia ALP 712 0.0050
Z Rise Up Australia Party LIB 1777 0.0126
AA The Greens (WA) ALP 15782 0.1118
AB DLP Democratic Labour LIB 2026 0.0144
AC Katter’s Australian Party PUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB 798 0.0057
AD Animal Justice Party ALP 5796 0.0411
AE Sex Party ALP 9130 0.0647
AF Socialist Alliance ALP 643 0.0046
AG Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens) LIB 1937 0.0137

About Ben Raue

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room. If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.