At the time of writing, the result of yesterday’s Senate re-run in Western Australia is still up in the air, but is much clearer and easier to understand than the 2013 result.
The first two Liberal candidates (David Johnston and Michaelia Cash) and the lead Labor and Greens candidates (Joe Bullock and Scott Ludlam) will win their seats with a full quota of primary votes.
Dio Wang of the Palmer United Party sits on 0.87 quotas, and should have little trouble winning a seat.
The final seat is a race between the third Liberal candidate, Linda Reynolds, and the second Labor candidate, Louise Pratt.
At the time of writing, the ABC Senate calculator gave the final seat to Reynolds by 0.07% of the vote, which is just over 600 votes. Of course, we all now understand that this isn’t the end of the story. The addition of declaration votes is likely to increase Reynolds’ lead.
In this post I will run through what votes are left to be counted, how they might skew the result, and what preferences Reynolds and Pratt will be relying on in their race.
It appears that all votes have been counted from most polling places, leaving only declaration votes (postal, provisional, pre-poll (outside of the electorate) and absentee votes) to be counted.
The AEC has published some information about the number of declaration votes that have been issued, and it seems that the numbers of absent, provisional and pre-poll votes have dropped to 20-33% of the 2013 levels, while the number of postal votes has increased.
This should see the Liberal Party increase their vote when those postal votes are added to the count.
My projection model suggests that the Liberal Party will gain ground with the addition of declaration votes, and suggests that Linda Reynolds is in a strong position to win the final seat. Using the ABC Senate calculator, my model suggested Reynolds will win by a margin of 0.0297 quota, up substantially on the current margin of 0.0022.
Finally, I’ve looked at how preferences are due to flow from each of the parties in the election towards the three parties who end up needing those preferences: Labor, Liberal and Palmer United.
Overall, there’s a pretty clear left-right divide in how parties’ preferences flow. Left-wing minor parties have generally flowed to Labor, with a large group of right-wing parties flowing to the Liberal Party. Most of the Palmer United Party’s preferences flowed from conservative minor parties, with the exception of the Democrats.
Most parties that preferenced PUP then flowed on to the Liberal Party after PUP’s lead candidate is elected. The only exceptions are the Motoring Enthusiast Party, the Democrats and Katter’s Australian Party, who then split their votes evenly between the ALP and the Liberal Party.
|Group||Party||Flows to||Votes so far||Quotas|
|A||The Wikileaks Party||ALP||5964||0.0423|
|C||Independent (Save ABC)||ALP||5608||0.0397|
|D||Australian Democrats||PUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB||2564||0.0182|
|F||Australian Labor Party||ALP||73837||0.5232|
|G||Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party||PUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB||5166||0.0366|
|H||Freedom and Prosperity Party||PUP, then LIB||561||0.0040|
|I||Voluntary Euthanasia Party||ALP||6052||0.0429|
|K||Australian Voice Party||PUP, then LIB||805||0.0057|
|L||Building Australia Party||PUP, then LIB||741||0.0053|
|M||Mutual Party||PUP, then LIB||703||0.0050|
|N||Family First Party||PUP, then LIB||7069||0.0501|
|O||#Sustainable Population Party||Split 2/3 ALP, 1/3 LIB||2634||0.0187|
|P||Palmer United Party||PUP, then LIB||123370||0.8741|
|Q||Australian Sports Party||PUP, then LIB||3725||0.0264|
|S||Shooters and Fishers||PUP, then LIB||9807||0.0695|
|U||Republican Party of Australia||LIB||599||0.0042|
|W||Australian Fishing and Lifestyle Party||LIB||3290||0.0233|
|Y||Secular Party of Australia||ALP||712||0.0050|
|Z||Rise Up Australia Party||LIB||1777||0.0126|
|AA||The Greens (WA)||ALP||15782||0.1118|
|AB||DLP Democratic Labour||LIB||2026||0.0144|
|AC||Katter’s Australian Party||PUP, then split 50/50 ALP/LIB||798||0.0057|
|AD||Animal Justice Party||ALP||5796||0.0411|
|AG||Outdoor Recreation Party (Stop The Greens)||LIB||1937||0.0137|