SA and TAS 2014: Prediction time


South Australia and Tasmania goes to the polls for their state elections on Saturday.

I’ll be covering the results from 6:30pm AEDT.

This is your opportunity to post your predictions for the election results.

You can also read more about each electorate, and join each electorate’s discussion thread, at the election guides:

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  1. SA – 26 Libs, 18 Labs, 3 Indis in the house. In the LC, 5 Libs, 4 Labs, a Green and a FF. Darley to miss out but come close.

    Tassie – 7 Labor (2 in Braddon plus 2 in Denison at a stretch, plus one from each of Lyons, Franklin and Bass), 4 Greens (losing Braddon), 14 Libs (3 everywhere but Denison).

    I’m expecting the Labor vote in Braddon to be strongly concentrated among Best and Green and that the second one, probably Best, will just sneak in after Lib leakage and exclusion of the Green MP.

    Bass and Lyons should be fairly straight forward 3-1-1

    Franklin is interesting because the Green and Lib vote will be heavily concentrated, whereas Dave O’Byrne will take a part of the Labor vote from the Premier and will probably come fourth in the actual primary vote, but I still think Lib preferences will overrun O’Byrne and get them three seats for a 3-1-1 result.

    Denison is the hardest to guess, with a real shot of a second Lab (after Scott Bacon), second Green or Palmer’s candidate (heck, even Marti Zucco has an outside shot) taking the last seat. I have no confidence in saying it, but I’ll give the last seat to Labor for a 2-2-1 result.

  2. SA – Liberals 28, Labor 17, Independents 2.

    For the SA Upper House I’m leaning to predicting Liberals 5, Labor 4, Greens 1, Family First 1 – I say “leaning” because I still have a nagging suspicion that minor players will do better than expected, in which case I’d take a seat off both the Liberals and Labor.

    Tasmania – Liberals 13, Labor 8, Greens 4.

    Bass and Lyons will be identical – Liberals 3 and Labor 1 and Greens 1, hence a seat switching from Labor to the Liberals. Braddon will be Liberals 3-2 over Labor, with the Greens losing their seat to the Liberals. Denison and Franklin will stay the same, with the Liberals 2 and Labor 2 and Greens 1 – I just don’t think that the perceived need for majority government will sway Hobart voters who hold some degree hostility towards Tasmania’s loggers.

  3. SA: Lib 29, ALP 15, Ind 3. Libs to gain every ALP seat under 5%.
    (Leg Council – don’t know/care. The above 5-4-1-1 predictions seem reasonable.)

    Tas: Lib 15, ALP 5, Grn 5. Every seat 3-1-1.

  4. Very confidant that Libs will win easily in tas. Most likely result 14-7-4 (lib-lab-g)

    Hung parliament in SA. Don’t know seat break down but can’t see libs winning enough seats to win outright. Much much less confidant on this prediction cf Tas

  5. Given my prediction of a hung parliament I just want to have my time in the sun and gloat. The reason I made the prediction was due to a view, arising from the previous state election, that Labor would out campaign the Libs in the marginals. And it happened. Of course, the sand bagging could have burst at this election and you get a total wipe out. But this time I was (luckily) correct.

    No doubt following the next election I will be a feather duster but at the moment the rooster!



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