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Given that Groom went to preferences for the first time ever last year, I wondered whether any of the corresponding state seats would be ripe for a locally-minded independent to give the LNP status quo a shake. If the LNP was in power for 29 of the last 35 years, maybe Toowoomba North would be that seat. However, the ALP is in that position, and given the youth crime epidemic, I suspect voters will have their bats out.
@NQ View
No. Your comment is really grasping at straws. The independent in Groom finished with a paltry 8.3% on the primary vote. Combine that with Toowoomba North is Labor’s only chance of winning a seat in Toowoomba and they throw everything at it. I really can’t see anything other then a LNP vs Labor two party contest with the LNP retaining. The baseball bats comment seems more like LNP cheer leading. Nobody is suggesting Labor can’t lose the next election, but there has been no suggestion from the polls or the commentators that they there facing a landslide loss. Law and Order has been exaggerated as an issue in terms of a vote changer. The last two elections its been predicted Labor will lose seats in Townsville on Law and Order which has hasn’t happened.
Agree PN, I don’t think this situation is comparable to the 2012 landslide or 1996 (Borbridge’s win) where voters were angry with state Labor. A better comparison would be to the recent NSW election, where overall the incumbent Coalition government was implementing positive policies but there was some discomfort with certain aspects (public services and cost of living), coupled with the ‘it’s time’ factor that enabled the Labor opposition to achieve a narrow win.
@ Yoh An the NSW election is a good comparison provided nothing major changes in the coming months.
It’s only been 11 years since Labor were swept out of power by the LNP, which I think is important to remember as a landslide and not simply “3 of the 5 years Labor were not in government since 1989” despite what later happened in 2015.
I could also see this election as a turning point for Queensland to adopt a somewhat normal voting pattern as is the case in the other states, rather than going decades without changing government as it has done so historically.
I don’t think there’s any “sign” to support that, it’s more or less just my prediction and/or opinion.
PN
I wasn’t suggesting that an independent could take Toowoomba North, was only musing that out of the three seats that make up Groom (Tba N, Tba S and Condamine), this would be the most likely. The independent candidate snowballed into 43% on final preferences. If the voters were dissatisfied with Watts personally but didn’t want to cast a vote for the ALP, I wouldn’t be surprised if another independent campaign had comparable results (NOTE – not to the point of taking the seat).
There is quite a bit of coverage about youth crime here, and it is almost universally filtered through the lens of blaming the state government. I can understand your point of view, but the difference between Toowoomba and Townsville is that the seats here aren’t marginal as they are up north. The LNP could conceivably take this seat with more than 60% of the 2PP vote.
The last four elections have seen the LNP 2PP vote as thus:
2012 – 59.58
2015 – 51.61
2017 – 55.70
2020 – 57.32
Out of interest, the last time Toowoomba North gave more than 60% of preferences to a candidate, it went to Kerry Shine from the ALP. His opponent was Lyle Shelton who was running for the Nats.
I doubt an independent would win this seat. Toowoomba is very LNP-voting.
This was Labor held during the Beattie/Bligh years but not since. Has it permanently shifted rightwards?
Yes, absolutely. Aging population and a very conservative area. Would be unlikely to go back to Labor.
if qec drew a toowoomba electorate around the city centre that left out highfields and the darling downs hinterland then i guess the alp might be able to win it sometime in the future. but there would be so many better prospects for them elsewhere anyway. and it sure as shit ain’t happening this year.
I find it interesting that solidly LNP voting Toowoomba is bigger than Labor voting Bendigo and Ballarat, and about the same distance from Brisbane that Ballarat is from Melbourne.