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ALP retain if Curtis Pitt stands again. Absolute toss-up if he isn’t.
How did Labor survive here in 2012? Yes, the conservative vote was split almost 50-50 between the LNP and KAP. Was that it? Or were there other factors?
Wil expect a swing from the ALP due to Dan andrews resignation
No Stew, this is Mulgrave in Queensland. The Victorian Mulgrave by-election has already occurred, and, as you said, there was a swing from the ALP.
@nicholas its a father son seat. warren pitt first contested in 1986 won in 1989 lost in 1995 again in 1998, retook the seat in the 1998 by election, passed it to his son curtis pitt in 2009. my guess is the personal vote held up.
@stew yep sure will i reckon around 10%. 😀
@Nicholas, yes in 2012 the vote was almost a three-way tie between ALP, LNP and KAP.
Queensland still had Optional Preferential Voting then, so the KAP and LNP basically took votes from each other and allowed Labor to win with like 34% of the vote and very minimal favourable preferences.
Ah, they had OPV! That makes more sense.
@nicholas Yea it’s the reason the nats and libs formed the lnp to stop that very problem
In 2012, there was OPV as Mark Mulclair mentioned. There was also momentum behind the newly-formed KAP as a non-Labor alternative to make gains in north and western QLD. Many KAP voters either didn’t send preferences or didn’t take them too seriously, perhaps because they thought KAP would win or as a rejection of the two-party duopoly.
I feel that typically second-generation MPs do quite well and have a strong personal vote given their surname but it might also be because they normally run in safe seats.
Father son must have been a factor in a personal vote in 2012 because excluding that election, this seat is actually a bellwether.
@bja I think the opv was a factor too. If it was for he would have lost from the combined KAP/LNP vote
–Candidate Update–
While researching information for Cook, I came across an independent for here.
IND (Yodie Batzke) who has set up a Facebook Page (Batzke2024Mulgrave – if you wish to search)
Yodie contested Cook (IND) at the 2020 State Election [3.86%], QLD Senate (UAP) at the 2019 Federal Election as no.3 on the ticket [Group 3.52%], Leichhardt (IND) at the 2010 Federal Election [2.13%]. Also backed the no campaign for the Voice Referendum.