Murrumba – QLD 2020

ALP 9.5%

Incumbent MP
Steven Miles, since 2017. Previously Member for Mount Coot-tha 2015-2017.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Murrumba covers southern parts of Moreton Bay local government area. It covers the suburbs of Rothwell, Mango Hill, Kallangur, Murrumba Downs, Castle Hill, Dakabin and Griffin, and parts of Rothwell and Narangba, all suburbs on the northern fringe of Brisbane.

History
The seat of Murrumba has existed continuously since 1912. It was held by the Country/National Party from 1918 to 1977, and has been held by the ALP continuously since 1977.

The seat was held by Frank Nicklin from 1932 to 1950, when he moved to the new seat of Landsborough. He served as Premier of Queensland from 1957 to 1968.

First David Nicholson and then Des Frawley were elected as Country Party MPs in Murrumba. In 1977 Frawley lost to the ALP’s Joe Kruger. Kruger held the seat until his retirement in 1986.

Dean Wells won Murrumba in 1986. He had previously served as federal Member for Petrie for 18 months from 1983 to 1984. Wells served as a minister in two successive Labor state governments: from 1989 to 1995 and from 1998 to 2004. Wells held Murrumba for nine terms from 1986 until 2012.

In 2012, Wells was defeated by LNP candidate Reg Gulley, who won with a 16.7% swing. Gulley lost his seat in 2015 by Labor’s Chris Whiting.

The redistribution prior to the 2017 election created a new seat of Bancroft out of northern parts of Murrumba. Whiting was elected as member for Bancroft. Murrumba was won by Steven Miles, whose seat of Mount Coot-tha had been abolished in the redistribution.

Miles had first won Mount Coot-tha in 2015 and had served as environment minister in the new government. He shifted to the health portfolio in 2017 and became deputy premier in May 2020.

Candidates

Assessment
Murrumba is a safe Labor seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Steven Miles Labor 14,11145.7-3.3
Reg Gulley Liberal National 7,95325.7-14.8
Scott DareOne Nation6,00219.4+19.4
Jason Kennedy Greens 2,8419.2+0.5
Informal1,4374.4

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Steven Miles Labor 18,39659.5+3.2
Reg Gulley Liberal National Party 12,51140.5-3.2

Booth breakdown

Booths in Murrumba have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.

Labor won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 58.2% in the centre to 66.8% in the west.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 15.9% in the east to 20% in the west.

Voter groupON primALP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Central16.058.27,62624.7
West20.066.86,71921.7
East15.960.62,3177.5
Pre-poll22.056.88,81428.5
Other votes20.856.45,43117.6

Election results in Murrumba at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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30 COMMENTS

  1. Steven Miles retains this seat easily. He actually is getting praise for the way he’s handling the difficult Health portfolio too. And with Kate Jones retiring from politics, and with Jackie Trad resignation from the ministry. He is looking more likely to be next in line for the leadership.

    I tend to think he may increase his vote with the sophomore surge. And the fact Reg Gulley is not recontesting. Some will have forgotten Gulley was considered a future front bencher before the LNP in Brisbane were all annihilated by Campbell Newman in 2015.

    One Nations vote will probably drop as well because of the pandemic. Due to the fact voters look to the major parties during this type of environment.

  2. Reg Gulley was a very hard working local member who also took on duties for Redcliffe when the Driscoll scandal happened which doubled his workload. It’s a pity he was in such a naturally Labor seat.

    He deserves another shot somewhere winnable.

  3. This doesn’t look the done deal everyone seems to think. The ON vote looks pretty close to LNP.

    There isn’t anyway i could fully express just how low my opinion is of Steven Miles, & all politicians, & so called men of his ilk. Suffice to say that Dan Andrews is a pillar of honesty, integrity, & open transparency next to this grub.
    i’M not prejudice against “Achiever” type 3s per se, however their talent for “reconstructing” reality, deceit, & deception, with absolute conviction, makes them extremely dangerous, & destructive.

  4. Queensland Observor
    I have had 11 different MLA’s since I voted for the first time. Reg Gulley was only one who I never set eyes on after he was elected. He rang me one night after I had complained about him breaking his promise to repeal Civil unions legislation.
    One of my MLA’s was Vince Lester when I was in Blackwater 1978-1985. Now he was hard working. Nothing went on in town without Vince popping his head in. A trip to Blackwater was a 2 1/2 hour drive each way for Vince but that did not stop him. My impression of Gulley was that he was not interested in electorate matters. He certainly would not attract me to vote or preference LNP. During his 3 years as MLA in Murrumbidgee I saw Campbell Newman twice but never Gulley. He is wise not to run in Bancroft .

  5. This seat could surprise everyone, Yvonne Barlow is very well known in the area i think this will be an LNP gain watch this space

  6. Wow Steven Miles is incredible. Sooking about the ADF being reassigned. Somehow QLD is suffering discrimination !!. The PM has it in for QLD !!. Clearly he believes this stuff. So why is he doing it ?, & what is he hoping to achieve?.
    The propaganda . Reminds me of Germany complaining about Polish “border outrages, incursions, & attacks”,!!. About as convincing too.
    On topic::>Every time Miles opens his mouth he gives hope to the opposition , & makes Murrumba a dark horse upset possibility. I’ve never seen a politician go this far. Would anyone like to compete with abetter example !?

  7. I don’t see a health minister losing their seat in a Covid election. Any ill will towards Miles over parachuting into a safe seat would have subsided by now.

  8. @ John
    Do you really think Miles “has covered himself in glory “!!??. How could anyone be impressed ? And with what exactly?

  9. People are entitled to make their predictions on here. But if 9.5% swing was replicated against Labor statewide there would be a loss of 28 seats for Labor. I’m not even sure the most one eyed LNP strategist would include Murrumba in the LNP’s potential gains column. Steven Miles retains this seat easily. Nothing to see here folks.

  10. PN
    I think you have made, or illustrated my point beautifully . Indeed there ought not to be anything at all to see here. Steven Miles is making a obscene spectacle of himself. Therefore THAT (in itself) becomes something to see.

    Besides which there simply isn’t enough “air time”, or media compliance, for 20+ Labor MPs to make such complete geese of themselves !!. Steven Miles would seem to have “speciale” if not unique talent for goose like propaganda .

    Therefore also speculation of 9+% swings & 28 seats falling is wildly improbable, & clearly was NOT my contention. However if memory serves there is a very clear & recent example of a certain QLD Premier talking himself out of a political career (not mentioning any names !). What was his margin ?. Cathy O ‘Toole & others , also produced meritorious efforts in Herbert in 2019, & else where, although there were other circumstances involved.

    So what would a 5%+ swing signify ? Miles still has another 4 weeks to dig (his own political grave)

  11. No I’m sorry the Labor party are gone, people will see beyond covid this Labor government has been terrible even before covid plus covid was never an issue in Qld

  12. I actually think RJM is on to something here. I know this area very well (living in neighbouring Kurwongbah and previously living in Mango Hill).

    Yvonne Barlow is killing Miles on the ground campaign (as is PHON’s candidate). I think the swing won’t be enough for the LNP to win, but of all the Moreton Bay regional seats, this will be the one to swing the hardest away from Labor.

    She’s easily outnumbering him with volunteers, sign sites and her massive truck that’s parked on main thoroughfares. Not to mention her campaign office on Anzac Avenue in Kallangur.

    The LNP’s vote was historically low in Rothwell, Mango Hill and Griffin last time. So there’s definitely room for growth there. Kallangur and Dakabin should stay strongly with Labor. Murrumba Downs will be the key booth here.

  13. One Nation polling is very similar to that of 2017. I see no reason to expect it to plummet. The One Nation candidate here is a long term local residing in the area. I believe she is a local teacher, they always perform well, especially if teaching within the electorate. The LNP candidate is receiving significant support from the local federal LNP member and was a popular councillor some 20 or 30 years ago. Whilst the profile of Miles has been raised drastically due to his daily pandemic media coverage, there is community sentiment against his lack of care for the local area. This could be more interesting than many of you think.

  14. Yvonne Barlow is so well known that initially I was confusing her with Yvonne Chapman the Joh era minister. I just could not get my head around how she had rejuvenated rather than aged. But then my old mate WD is reminiscing about 1939 Polish German disputes making him at least 101. For a centenarian he still has his wits about him.

  15. Steven Miles didn’t even bother turning up to the candidates forum last night, this guy has rejected his local area!!! vote him out!! LNP to gain this with a 12% swing

  16. “Vote Miles Out” we don’t need bigoted party workers on here or campaign spokespeople on here. And your prediction just sounds like cheerleading and it is absolute BS on your claim that the LNP will win this seat. They aren’t even putting resources into this seat. Your logic of the LNP getting a landslide is even worse logic than some people saying The Liberals will win in ACT or NT going for the CLP after 1 term. And even the LNP winning both 2015 and 2017. Don’t just post a prediction just because you “want” it to happen. We get you want Miles out. But it is unlikely. The same conservatives who had Obama losing in 2012 and the same ones predicting a Trump landslide are at it again. I admit my predictions have been off, but typically that is when I see the votes coming in and I don’t have Antony Greens magic wall to see where the votes are coming from. I do call things premature on election night. But I typically go by the polls because the polls are right MOST of the time. And even then these things have something known as a “Margin of Error” and last years federal election was well inside the margin of error. The LNP have a better chance at a seat like Mackay than this because of the regions. Miles will hold with a slight swing against him. LNP supporters are not going to convince me that Miles will lose just because they “want” him to lose. It is not how it works.

  17. Daniel is spot on in this seat. The seat is predominantly Deception Bay which is housing commission territory. Libs will have great difficulty in picking up votes in D-Bay.
    Chris Whiting’s pamphlet depicts him and Miles therefore ALP do not think Miles is a liability. Murrumba voters would bS highly dependent on commercial TV news and Moles has health minister has had a lot of publicity. He may even pick up votes and in any case he he has a large buffer to protect him.

  18. Daniel has hit the nail on the head with his post. Cheerleading and analysis/predictions are separate things entirely. Ros Bates is on a similar margin to Steven Miles in her seat of Mudgeeraba on 9.8%. Whether I would like to see her lose her seat or not is not the point. I don’t realistically think she will judging by the polls, the issues, and the margin she is on. And may see a swing and a couple percentage points away from her but thats it.

    Steven Miles loses this seat on the margin he is on with a 12% swing against him. Oh please.

  19. Political Nightwatchman
    Well said.
    Whilst I have never lived within the current boundaries of the seat of Murrumba I have spent 32 years living in electorates adjacent to this seat. At no time in that period have I ever thought of it as anything other than ALP heartland. Steven Miles is helping candidates in other areas therefore
    1) he is confident about his chances
    2) other candidates view him as an asset to their own campaign
    .
    Murrumba is safe and those that thin otherwise are viewing the election through blue tinted glasses.

    If I want to read unexpurgated LNP propaganda there are plenty of sites where I can find this but Tallyroom is not one of them.
    I moderated and re-wrote last paragraph precisely because this is Tally Room. If it had been Peter Dutton Supporters Page I would have just left the original para as was and let their non existent moderators censor or allow.

  20. I find this ‘black & white” argument disappointing . Whilst this seat is not in play, Miles is such a complete goose, he is creating a slight, to remote possibility of an upset. Therefore saying there is no chance is just shallow.

    It is not impossible for the ON candidate to outpoll the LNP & run him close. What would a 5% + swing against this imbecile say ?. IT’S AGAINST THE ODDS. BUT that doesn’t make it impossible. I’m sure we could all find precedents.

    I will remind everyone that it is in ALL our collective interest, our national interest if politicians are punished with increasing ferocity for poor behaviour & incompetence of any type.

  21. I’ve seen no work for Miles in Kallangur, but had 4 different pamphlets for the LNP and against him. I haven’t seen any local announcements for funding. He may keep his seat, but pride cometh before a fall, and he’s got hubris in spades.

  22. I really hope this is wrong miles is all about his career and has done nothing for our community
    Having listened to both Yvonne and Karen I hope we get the change that we deserve

  23. Of the three seats in Qld the Shooters are running in, this is one of them. Does anyone local know why a party best known for winning seats in regional NSW and WA is playing in suburban Brisbane? It’s be easier just to make a charitable donation to ECQ – at least you can claim that on your tax return.

  24. Bob
    Would you like to explain why there is a suburban railway line running through Kallangur. There is a new University at Petrie. Whilst Petrie is just outside electorate it would be a brain dead political activist that did not see that the Uni is part of Murrumba’s infrastructure.

  25. As said before, Miles will easily retain this seat. No threat for him here. However, it will be interesting whether his vote in affected by the candidate – himself. He has been the health minister during a pandemic which has been handled well up here and appears to be a vote winner (except maybe for Gold Coast and potentially Cairns, but we will see in 2 weeks). He may also benefit from a sophomore surge and even larger name recognition (although that is not always good in every case mind you). However, many also find his personality distasteful and childish and he probably isn’t the strongest local candidate (a mix of changing seat last election and the fact he is health minister means he will inevitably spend less time in Murrumba). However, there is not a single doubt that he will retain.

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