The Tally Room

For today I've got two maps, one of Goulburn, and the other of three other seats in the south-eastern corner of the state.  Swing data thanks to William Bowe's estimates of 2019 results by 2023 polling place. Goulburn's swing map is fascinating. Labor's support in 2019...

Today I'm heading to south-western Sydney, with a map showing Leppington, Camden and some surrounding seats. This map shows Leppington and Camden surrounded by Macquarie Fields and Campbelltown to the south-west and Badgerys Creek to the north-east.  Swing data thanks to William Bowe's estimates of 2019...

Over the next two weeks I'll be picking clusters of seats and posting maps showing the swings in those seats at the recent NSW election, looking for interesting trends. If there's a seat you'd be interested in seeing, please let me know! I have...

There has been an uptick in the number of women elected to parliament in both chambers at the recent NSW election, which I expected before election day. Now that we know how most of the seats have fallen, we can show how much has...

New South Wales uses optional preferential voting (OPV) for its lower house, unlike every other single-member electorate system for a lower house in Australia, where compulsory preferential voting (CPV) is used. We know that OPV produces lower rates of preference flows, with exhausted votes...

I've started to see a few questions about how preferences flowed at this election. So while we don't have the full picture, I thought I would do what I can to get a sense of how preferences flowed, how that compares to preference flows...

Ben is joined by Peter Brent to discuss the remarkable results of Saturday's Aston by-election. We discuss the context of the by-election, the potential implications and we also briefly touch on the upcoming Voice referendum. This podcast is supported by the Tally Room’s supporters on Patreon....

The recent NSW state election saw a high number of retirements in the lower house. The Coalition had more retirements than at any other election in the last thirty years. Meanwhile the election produced inconsistent swings, with some seats producing large swings while neighbouring seats...

10:36 - I'm going to leave the live blog here. This result tonight was truly remarkable. We all now know the history - governments simply do not win by-elections from oppositions, and it hasn't happened in over 100 years. A commenter pointed out that similar...

Labor won a large two-party-preferred vote, yet looks set to fall short of a parliamentary majority. For most of modern Australian political history, a two-party-preferred vote of 53.6% (as the ABC currently projects) would comfortably win a majority. For most of the post-war period, elections...