Whitlam – Australia 2025

Ok plant jobs for mates might be a more accurate term.the nats did contest this in 2019 when it was less regional and did ok

Either way I think he’s run out of road now that it’s no longer a safe seat and they want to put someone else on before they lose it

im pretty sure the Labor have come to the same conclusion i did and that was that this seat was no longer regarded as safe and Stephen Jones vote was only dropping and that he would of lost it in 2028 if he didnt this time around in 2025 and have decided to try another candidate to hopefully save the seat now and then hopefully get a sophmore surge in 2028. i think labor have done the same thing in Moreton as well.

Is it possible that a high profile community independent win this seat by splitting the vote? Sort of a reserve teal or Dai Le factor. The independents cleaned up on Shellharbour council results and even got 2/2 quotas in one ward.
Eg. takes 10% from, 10% from the Libs and the picks up the nongreen minor party preferences (16% combined primary last election)

Can’t see the Lib candidate winning though. Word around the traps is he might be a ‘flat earther’. Surely the coalition could have put someone better up!

“The only known contender for Labor preselection is Keely O’Brien, general manger of corporate affairs for the Council of Australian Life Insurers. However, O’Brien is of the Right and the consensus appears to be that the Right will not formally oppose the national executive ratifying the nominee of Jones’s own Left faction. The report further relates that an informal deal reserves Whitlam to the Left and the state seat of Shoalhaven to the Right, but some consider the Right is owed a seat after Anthony Albanese imposed Ashvini Ambihaipahar of the Left in Barton.”

N40s and national exc preselections should not exist. The rank and file in the area should make the decision

@mick but they wont because in the labor party they pick and choose based on who is a member of the proper faction and who has the best connections

Hi all

I am an Independent Candidate for Whitlam. I have enjoyed reading the comments!

It’s time for common sense in Whitlam.

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1FcofCh14F/

Cheers Paddy

So the Labor party (like the LNP) are now also nominating a candidate who previously contested the seat of Cunningham as a member of a different party, have no support of the local branch members and no meaningful ties with the community

@welcome paddy. What are your policies etc. Good luck at the election.

@daniel from whose the candidate? i heard its likely to be Carol Berry.

@john yes the candidate is Carol Berry, announced yesterday, reported by local media

@Daniel she never acutally contested Cunningham though she was on the team who helped the greens steal the seat in the by election way back when

@Daniel – to my knowledge Carol Berry is merely the frontrunner for preselection, not the candidate. There’s been no official announcement that she is candidate.

She is not she is the frontrunner but as she is of the left and the fact they will want to get a candidate on asap the executive will essentially insert her into the seat without a branch vote

@Darth Vader – your last part about her being shot straight into the seat without a branch vote reminded me of the Cunningham by-election in 2002. Sharon Bird was preselected without a branch vote and somehow lost what would have usually been an easy Labor retain.

I don’t think it will happen in Whitlam (the Liberals would likely be the beneficiaries) but food for thought.

I think the writing’s on the wall. With the infighting, disagreement and general disarray in the Shellharbour Labor party in recent years, it sounds like head office is taking the lead on this one

Paddy Lupton the ind seems to have reasonable policies and could be the benficiary of lackluster candidates on both sides.

@james yea well they did the same thing in Barton so id say we will see the same thing here

@Daniel @John – it’s kind of weird. The Shellharbour Labor branch has struggled a lot in the past 5 years, yet they still have an iron grip on the southern Illawarra. Labor held Shellharbour against the independent mayor of Shellharbour with only about a 1% swing against them. Whitlam is still good as gold for now, and Jones still won all the Illawarra booths pretty easily. I think the squabbles ever since Chris Homer’s run in 2023 state election have definitely intensified, Homer was re-elected to the mayoralty dominating most of the booths.

If Berry was shot right in here, I could actually see a feasible independent (e.g. Paddy Moylan, or eve Chris Homer surprisingly) actually polling well here. It’s important to remember a chunk of Wingecarribee is in the state electorate of Wollondilly which fell to a Climate 200-backed independent. Don’t think a teal would win Whitlam, but I think there is a growing appetite for moderate, sensible independents in the area. And if one polled well running against Labor, I could see an IND gain or preferences could deliver what I would see as a massive upset gain for the Liberals.

@James agreed the only problem is i dont think there is enough vote out side liberal and labor to get an independent into the 2cp. hed have to get preferences from the the different minor parties including the greens and strip enough votes off the libs o get into the 2cp against labor but could certainly win if he did. i think jones would of lost this in 2028 if he didnt this time especially if labor were still in govt. libs still and outside chance given then makeup of the seat though.

The problem in this seat for the Liberals is that the numbers in the Southern Highlands, which votes for them, are less that the number on the coast which votes Labor.This is evident in the state seats covering the area as well.
So I am not expecting a change.

@sabenaim inclined to agree the 8.7% margin seems abit too much to take in one go. id expect a margin of 4-5% labor retain although the IND may cause an upset

Sabena the Liberal vote in the Highlands has been declining for years. A high profile independent would have a more of a shot taking the seat.

Carol Berry officially announced by Albo https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AP9P4P4fL/

Not a great choice having a former Green Party secretary and candidate. Especially when wind turbines are an issue in this electorate.

Gee what a shock

Albanese was heckled in Lake Illlawarra this morning(excerpt from the Australian)
“Anthony Albanese has been booed and heckled at Lake Illawarra where he was announcing $850,000 in funding for the Shellharbour integrated child and family precinct.

The Prime Minister struggled to speak over residents opposed to the construction of offshore wind farms yelling “you don’t support the regions”, “why don’t you put them out front of your place” and “we don’t want you here”, amid calls for a senate inquiry into wind farms.”

@sabena I think that was the reason Jones was forced out. This seat will be really interesting.

Does anyone here think there could be enough backlash for this seat to be lost? I’m not too sure but I think these factors and the demographic change could make the swing a lot more intense.

@james I definitely think it might be in play.

If current trends continue and the Coalition end up with a 53-47 type nationwide result then yes this seat could go, but with their dud candidate, weak branches (which will likely mean a weak campaign on the ground) and 8% to run down it’s a pretty tall order.

This would be like Labor picking up Hawthorn and Napean at the 2018 state election in VIC

@maxim still it’s not like the Labor party is putting the next PM as their cnadidate

I don’t think Labor will lose the seat, the Liberals have also parachuted a candidate in and Paddy, although Independent, has connections to the National Party through his wife, Wingecarribee clr Sara Moylan, so is likely to pick up the majority of his votes in the Highlands in the absence of a National nomination, but many in the Shellharbour/Dapto area will prefer a known local Independent, should one nominate down here. I think it will come down to Labor primary being at its usual numbers due to the loyal following, with the other votes being split and exhausted with people not putting down preferences beyond one or two candidates

@daniel I don’t think there is enough vote for paddy to make the cut. Although if he pulls some labor vote and directs his presences to the libs that could help

This could end up being like a Western Melbourne seat where the both the Liberal and Labor vote have a 2 at the front. There is nothing to say that more independents won’t crawl out of the woodwork.

The independents will likely hurt labor more then the libs here and if that were the case the combined independents would easily be able to preference each other and push each other up into the 2cp and win the seat with the help of the other major party

Also there was really only one major ind in Werribee as in prahran. However the left vote (ajp, vs, of and left leaning Inds propped up labor first. They could have easily got hopper into the 2cp but obv preferred labor. I doubt labor will be forced below 30% on its primary especially at a general election. If labor finishes on 29 or under here they will lose the seat. There is serious anger about wind farms here and that’s what Paddy is campaigning on he wants the cheapest reliable and abundant energy. This could come down to him here.

The fact she is a former greens candidate and steel tariffs may work against labor here. A targeted campaign on these issues could help the coalition I can see the coalition running targeted adds on this. Drawing her into the argument on things like offshore wind the steel industry could harm labor. Dutton would be well to particularly target labor’s past rhetoric on trump and its failure to secure exemptions compared to their previous record of getting them. This could be close.

YouGov poll has this 50.6% Labor, 49.4% Liberal on the TPP. All before the retirement of Jones and the parachuting of a non local green as the Labor candidate. This seat is gone.

@John – excellent point there. Steel tariffs will actually hit hard in the Illawarra considering it has a very large steel-making industry there.

The YouGov poll predicted about an 8% swing here against Labor, in Cunningham it was about 6-7% to the Liberals.

@Stew Rockdale – I think Labor should be quite worried and deservedly so. This is not super safe for them. This, Macarthur and Shortland are all demographically similar, and wouldn’t be too surprised if all three flipped. I would say Macarthur is likely to stay Labor because of Freelander’s personal vote, but either way the swing is on here.

Please link you gov polls

The problem for Labor here is there is no sitting MP and therefore no personal vote the apparent choice is two former Cunningham candidates one who is considered a lame duck (apparently )and the other a former green.

@Darth Vader – https://au.yougov.com/elections/au/2025

@daryh cheers I’ve had a brief look over the data. This looks largely accurate and while I don’t expect it to be exact there should and will be some outliers but Labor is up the creek.

I am a long term observer of this thread but a first time poster. I’ve been a Labor voter for decades but never joined the party. I am also a local living in Albion Park.

I would be unsurprised if the Liberals win. The press has been negative since before the candidate was announced, mainly about the local Labor branches claiming to have been bypassed.

I watched the press conference on Friday and it was a mess. I still don’t understand why they chose to hold it in what seemed like an open-air spot. A closed location would’ve certainly kept things from turning into such a disaster.

“Party insiders” were quoted in an article from two weeks ago, touting three local candidates as potential replacements. This Mercury article from two weeks ago states: “Local party sources have said various candidates had been sounded out for a preselection bid, including a staffer in Mr Jones’ office, Wollongong City Councillor Tiana Myers and United Services Union official Stuart Geddes.”

As for the local “potential candidates,” it is unclear who the staffer is. I couldn’t find any information about who they are. Cr Tiana Myers was recently elected in the 2024 local government elections and appears to be a member of the Labor Left. Her Facebook states she is from Dapto. Stuart Geddes is a union official, as mentioned in the article, and appears to be a member of the Labor Right, but I’m not certain about this. It is unclear what area from the electorate he lives in but seems to be from the Illawarra part of the seat.

This other article from last week states:
“Party insiders have stated that “preselection process” basically means the National Executive will formally endorse her (Berry) as the candidate when it meets on Thursday next week. Nominations for preselection – which can either be by the rank and file or by the national executive – opened on Wednesday and will run for seven days. Other candidates are free to nominate though it was doubtful they had any chance to win. Whitlam is a left-controlled seat and party insiders say Ms Berry is that faction’s chosen candidate; any other local members from the left nominating would not stand a chance.
The same would go for any preselection candidates from the right fact of the party. In the Whitlam branch there is the belief the candidate will be chosen by what is known as an N40, because if Ms Berry stood in a rank-and-file preselection “she’d comfortably lose”.”

This article explains why any of these touted local candidates might have been hesitant to put their hand up. Geddes confirmed in a WIN News story that he would run for preselection if it was a rank and file vote. Myers did not make any public comment and has since publicly endorsed Berry, according to her Facebook page.

The “former Greens” line will be an issue, even if she’s been a member of the ALP for 20 years. She is also not a local to the seat. Being a Illawarra local does not mean local to Whitlam, which is demographically different to Cunningham. Jones appeared to have a strong personal vote in the Southern Highlands but with any new candidate, this vote will likely suffer. The other parts of the seat are heavily affected by the cost of living crisis. As for my suburb of Albion Park, it seems that Labor has thrown it in the “too hard basket” after the Shellharbour Local Government results. I would not be surprised to see an independent candidate poll strongly here.

I am concerned about Labor’s prospects on losing the seat. Today’s YouGov polling has Whitlam at a 51-49 TPP to Labor, not including preferences.

Whitlam being discussed as a potential Liberal gain shows how poorly Labor is doing nationally, but is compounded by what appears to be a parachute of a non-local, former Greens candidate.

Perhaps the only saving grace is that Ben Britton, the Liberal candidate, is a former UAP candidate for Cunningham and also doesn’t live in the electorate.

Great insight Marcus, thank you!

The fact the Liberals have a poor candidate will probably cost them the seat. Mr Britton has very little community connections. Furthermore, he has sought different seats in the past with multiple parties making him come across as quite ingenuine. Maybe the Libs should look at replacing him with someone more palatable if they want to turn this into a serious contest.

@Marcus W – I really like your analysis. It’s good to always see the perspective of locals, especially in your case being a Labor voter in a traditional heartland seat. I agree with you on everything, I expect the Liberals to win most of the Wingecarribee booths, and definitely I expect some booths in southern Illawarra, especially in Shell Cove, Shellharbour and Albion Park to likely flip Liberal.

Labor used to be able to put a wooden statue in here and they could win here. Now it’s most certainly a battleground seat. Britton is definitely what someone worded as ‘a B-grade candidate’. Definitely the Liberals could have tried with a better candidate, even re-running Mike Cains wouldn’t sound like a bad idea. The new voters for the Liberals will likely be placing a vote for Dutton or against Albo/Jones/Berry, I don’t think many would specifically vote for Britton.

@Marcus great analysis mate. Cheers for the research. Like Marcus, I’m also a first time poster but I’ve spent a few months on this site. I don’t live in the seat anymore; I moved to Gilmore around 15 years ago. I do have some local background as someone who grew up in the suburb of Warilla as a boy, and still has some family left in the area.

Albo’s parachute has caused another sh*tshow. This guy seems hellbent on preventing rank and file preselections which must be frustrating for party members. If I remember correctly, multiple candidates have been parachuted into other seats over the past year, including 2024—though feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.

@Marcus I found your brief analysis of the “prospective candidates” interesting, so I had another look into them.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Geddes or Myers have a crack at the Shellharbour state seat down the track. But, given that it’s a Labor Right seat, I’d put my money on Geddes. He’s with the USU, a Labor Right union. Anna Watson, the current Shellharbour state MP, has strong connections with the USU as well. From what I can see on LinkedIn, Geddes is from Barrack Heights, a working-class part of the seat. He’d likely have strong appeal running for state. I reckon he could be the one after Watson steps down. About Whitlam, he publicly stated that he’d run in a rank-and-file but appears not to have put his name in. Since the vote was done through the ALP’s national executive, I wouldn’t be surprised if he decided not to nominate since Albo appears to have the final say, and I can’t see Albo endorsing a Labor Right candidate for a Labor Left seat.

As for Myers, she’s still pretty young. From what I could find on LinkedIn, she looks to be around 25-27. I reckon she should spend a term or two on Wollongong Council first. Since Whitlam’s a Labor Left seat, I could see her running for Whitlam once Carol Berry retires, or if Labor happens to lose it, which is also a possibility. That’d give her some more time to build up a profile. Like Marcus said, she’s from Dapto, which is solid Labor territory and has strong electoral appeal. This is all just my guess, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they passed on her for Whitlam this time around because of her age. As Marcus mentioned, it’s also worth pointing out that I couldn’t find any public confirmation that she’d be running in a rank-and-file this time around, and she’s also backed Berry.

Thirdly, the unnamed Jones staffer. I couldn’t find any info on who this person might be, so I won’t waste time speculating.

As for the seat, I agree with Marcus that Labor could be in a bit of trouble here. I don’t think they’ll lose it, but I can see the margin narrowing to about 3-5%. If Berry isn’t a strong MP, there’s a good chance Labor could lose Whitlam in 2028. I don’t think a Liberal MP would last more than a term in Whitlam, but losing the seat would still be a big blow to what’s traditionally been solid Labor ground.

Berry seems fine enough. Her resume’s certainly impressive. I do think some voters might buy into the “former Green” narrative, but I don’t reckon it’ll be as much of a factor as some people think. I reckon the negative media attention around the preselection process will be more damaging.

One thing’s for sure, a seat that normally wouldn’t get much attention has turned into a real talking point on Tally Room. I agree with @James that a strong Liberal vote won’t be a vote for Britton, it’d be an anti-Albo/Jones/Berry vote.