LNP 22.1%
Incumbent MP
David Littleproud, since 2016.
Geography
Southwestern Queensland and the Darling Downs. Maranoa covers a large part of southern Queensland, stretching from Toowoomba council area (although not the city of Toowoomba itself) along the NSW border, all the way to the South Australian and Northern Territory borders. Major towns include Kingaroy, Nanango, Warwick, Dalby and Roma.
Maranoa is an original federation electorate, covering rural parts of southern Queensland. The seat was first held by the ALP, but has been held by the Country Party and its successors since 1921, only losing Maranoa at one election.
The seat was first won in 1901 by the ALP’s James Page. Page held the seat until his death in 1921.
The 1921 by-election was won by James Hunter, standing for the newly-formed Country Party. Hunter served as a minister in the Lyons government from 1934 to 1937, and retired in 1940.
Maranoa was won in 1940 by the ALP’s Frank Baker, a former school teacher and father of former MP Frank Baker Jr, who had died in 1939. The elder Baker held Maranoa for one term, losing to the Country Party’s Charles Adermann in 1943. Adermann retained Maranoa in 1946 before moving to the new seat of Fisher in 1949. He served as a minister from 1958 until 1967, and retired in 1972.
The Country Party’s Charles Russell won Maranoa in 1949, but fell out with his party in 1950 and contested the seat as an independent in 1951, losing to the Country Party’s Wilfred Brimblecombe. Brimblecombe held the seat until his retirement in 1966.
James Corbett won Maranoa for the Country Party in 1966, holding it until 1980. He was succeeded in 1980 by Ian Cameron, also of the National Country Party.
Cameron retired in 1990, and the National Party’s Bruce Scott won the seat, and held the seat until his retirement in 2016.
LNP candidate David Littleproud succeeded Scott in 2016. He was re-elected in 2019 and 2022, and became leader of the Nationals after the 2022 election.
Assessment
Maranoa is the Coalition’s safest seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Littleproud | Liberal National | 52,382 | 56.3 | +0.3 |
| Dave Kerrigan | Labor | 14,236 | 15.3 | -0.3 |
| Mike Kelly | One Nation | 11,070 | 11.9 | -2.7 |
| Nathan McDonald | United Australia | 6,202 | 6.7 | +3.0 |
| Ellisa Parker | Greens | 4,533 | 4.9 | +1.5 |
| Malcolm Richardson | Shooters, Fishers and Farmers | 3,695 | 4.0 | +4.0 |
| Brett Tunbridge | Federation Party | 997 | 1.1 | +1.1 |
| Informal | 3,234 | 3.4 | -0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| David Littleproud | Liberal National | 67,153 | 72.1 | -3.3 |
| Dave Kerrigan | Labor | 25,962 | 27.9 | +3.3 |
Booths have been divided into six areas. Polling places in Dalby and Roma council areas were grouped by local government areas. Balonne and Goondiwindi council areas have been grouped together as ‘South’.
The LNP won a sizeable majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all six areas, ranging from 65.3% in Kingaroy-Crows Nest to 74.4% in Roma.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 10.4% in the south to 14.1% in Dalby.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| South-East | 13.7 | 68.4 | 10,769 | 11.6 |
| Dalby | 14.1 | 73.0 | 7,465 | 8.0 |
| Kingaroy-Crows Nest | 14.0 | 65.3 | 6,491 | 7.0 |
| West | 13.4 | 68.9 | 3,480 | 3.7 |
| South | 10.4 | 73.3 | 3,371 | 3.6 |
| Roma | 12.7 | 74.4 | 2,589 | 2.8 |
| Pre-poll | 10.9 | 70.6 | 36,468 | 39.2 |
| Other votes | 11.2 | 78.0 | 22,482 | 24.1 |
Election results in Maranoa at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.
NP, I guess with separate Liberal and National Parties it would function like WA with an independent National Party. I’m not sure if some Nationals will still be invited to serve as Shadow Ministers (again like WA where the parties still form a close relationship).
Another temporary ‘split’ between the two Coalition partners occurred in Victoria at the state level following Steve Bracks’ 1999 victory, and did not end until prior to the 2010 election.
@ NP
How does your LNP membership change are you a member of both parties?
I’m curious to see what the seating plan will look like.
Are the seats on the frontbench to the left of the Speaker reserved exclusively for the official opposition? If so, that frontbench is going to entirely Liberals, and if they make use of all of it, there’s going to be only a very small number of Liberal MPs on the backbenches.
Then presumably the Nationals will sit on the backbenches a bit further from the Speaker. (I wonder if they’ll leave a visible gap?) The rest of the crossbench will be sitting much closer to the Speaker than they usually do – Labor’s majority is so large that a few Labor MPs will have to be seated on the wrong side of the aisle.
My guess is it’s about the Nuclear Policy, since the other 3 policies cited don’t amount to much.
Nuclear clearly killed the Liberal Party in the cities, so they’ll be keen to dump it. Why Littleproud wants to keep it is a mystery, since all the plants were to go into seats the NP hold or are targeting.
Obviously he’s bought into NetZero but he hasn’t brought his voters with him.
I’d say his career will be even shorter than Sussan Ley’s after today.
@Nimalan state party is the same.
@Yoh A that’s another valid question. What will the shadow ministry look like?
I must admit I’m not surprised at this. The Nationals vote held up at the election, all of the loss was on the Liberals’ side. In fact there’s been a few elections – WA 2021 is another one – where the Liberals crashed but the Nationals didn’t do too badly.
I can easily see the Nats feeling that they have a better chance if they’re completely free of the Liberals (even if they’ll almost certainly side with them in government).
NP, some latest articles suggest Sussan Ley will not want any Nationals in shadow Cabinet. If true, it will severely limit her choice of MP’s for shadow portfolios.
The Coalition separation/divorce may need to be repaired quickly: the LNP of Queensland is a division of the Liberal Party only, not the National Party. Since the formation of the LNP of Queensland a decade or so ago, there has been no Queensland division of the National Party.
https://www.aec.gov.au/Parties_and_Representatives/party_registration/Registered_parties/
How David Littleproud, Matt Canavan, Michelle Landry et al get to stay in the National Party room having been elected under the banner of a division of the Liberal Party (which the Nationals are no longer in coalition with) beats me. Is there some ancillary “side-agreement” that none of us is privy to?
Tbh, it seems kind of a given that the shadow cabinet after this Coalition split will be solely Liberals. Compounding that is that due to the much reduced size of the Liberal party room…. nearly every Liberal may end up in the shadow ministry. Will be interesting to see how that works given the usual shadow cabinet solidarity.
re: the relationship of the Liberal National Party of Queensland to the federal Liberals and Nationals, party registration for the purposes of contesting elections and parliamentary parties for the purposes of parliamentary business are wholly separate things (although, confusingly, the AEC and I believe relevant legislation does sometimes use “Parliamentary Party” to refer to a party registered for electoral purposes by a sitting member of Parliament). This is how Ralph Babet is able to sit as a UAP Senator despite the UAP being deregistered and unable to contest the 2025 election, and conversely how David Pocock sits as an Independent Senator but runs as a candidate of his eponymous party. Parliament decides its own affairs, including the groupings of members into parties and in the case of the Liberal National Party of Queensland, members elected under the banner of that party take their seats as either Liberals or Nationals depending mostly on the history of the seat/senate position they occupy and have always done so since the merger.
John Howard has come out criticising the split of the Coalition.