LIB 2.6%
Incumbent MP
David Coleman, since 2013.
Geography
Southern Sydney. Banks covers large parts of the St George area and neighbouring suburbs. It includes a majority of the Georges River council area and south-western parts of the Canterbury-Bankstown council area. Key suburbs include East Hills, Panania, Padstow, Picnic Point, Revesby, Mortdale, Peakhurst, Penshurst, Blakehurst, Carss Park, Kyle Bay and Oatley.
Redistribution
Banks expanded north, taking in Milperra from Blaxland and parts of Punchbowl and Roselands from Watson. Banks also took in Blakehurst, Carss Park and Kyle Bay from Cook and lost Allawah and Carlton to Barton. These changes cut the Liberal margin from 3.2% to 2.6%.
History
Banks was created for the 1949 election, and was held by Labor continuously until 2013.
The seat was first won in 1949 by Labor candidate Dominic Costa. Costa held the seat for twenty years, always as a member of the opposition, retiring in 1969.
Vince Martin was elected in 1969, and held the seat until he was defeated for preselection in 1980 by John Mountford. Mountford held the seat until his retirement in 1990.
In 1990, Banks was won by Labor candidate Daryl Melham. Melham held the seat for over two decades, serving in the Opposition shadow ministry from 1996 to 1998 and again from 2001 to 2004. Successive swings against the ALP wore his margin down to 1.06% in 2004, although a favourable redistribution before the 2007 election, combined with a swing of almost 8%, made the seat much safer.
Daryl Melham narrowly held on in 2010 despite a 9% swing, and in 2013 he lost to Liberal candidate David Coleman with a further 3.3% swing. Coleman has been re-elected three times.
- Allan Taruste (Trumpet of Patriots)
- Todd Nicol (One Nation)
- Phillip Pearce (Democrats)
- Marika Momircevski (Libertarian)
- Natalie Hanna (Greens)
- Zhi Soon (Labor)
- David Coleman (Liberal)
- John Coyne (Independent)
Assessment
Banks is a marginal seat, but has trended towards the Liberal Party over the last two decades. The seat was Labor-held throughout the entire Howard government, and generally voted to the left of New South Wales until 2013. At the 2019 and 2022, the Liberal two-party-preferred vote was substantially higher in Banks than across the state. A strong Labor result could see this seat flipping, but otherwise it will likely stay with the Liberals.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Coleman | Liberal | 41,622 | 45.2 | -5.7 | 44.6 |
| Zhi Soon | Labor | 32,459 | 35.3 | -1.1 | 35.8 |
| Natalie Hanna | Greens | 8,063 | 8.8 | +2.9 | 8.6 |
| Marika Momircevski | United Australia | 5,048 | 5.5 | +3.3 | 5.6 |
| Malcolm Heffernan | One Nation | 2,628 | 2.9 | +2.9 | 3.3 |
| Elouise Ivy Cocker | Liberal Democrats | 1,264 | 1.4 | +1.4 | 1.2 |
| Steve Khouw | Independent | 961 | 1.0 | +1.0 | 0.9 |
| Informal | 6,550 | 6.6 | -0.6 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing | Redist |
| David Coleman | Liberal | 48,969 | 53.2 | -3.1 | 52.6 |
| Zhi Soon | Labor | 43,076 | 46.8 | +3.1 | 47.4 |
Polling places in Banks have been divided into three parts: central, east and west. The west covers the former Bankstown council area, while the other two cover the Georges River council area and the small part of the former Canterbury council area.
The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 50.6% in the centre to 55.4% in the east.
| Voter group | GRN prim | LIB 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 8.6 | 50.6 | 20,491 | 20.7 |
| West | 8.2 | 54.7 | 19,588 | 19.8 |
| East | 9.4 | 55.4 | 15,942 | 16.1 |
| Pre-poll | 7.7 | 51.6 | 27,171 | 27.4 |
| Other votes | 9.9 | 51.7 | 15,898 | 16.0 |
Election results in Banks at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens.
Good map Nether Portal here are my 2 cents
1. I agree Shortland should be solid Red and not targeted. the Anti-Adani backlash has been reversed.
2. McMahon and Gorton should be palest purple low priority i think Bennelong, Boothby and Reid deserve greater focus
3. Hawke can be targeted in 2028
4. I agree Bruce should not be targeted it pre 2025 margin was deceptively low due to anti-lockdown backlash in 2022.Neither should Calwell, Scullin, Gellibrand Lalor
5. I agree in SA Kingston, Spence, Adelaide and Hindmarsh should be targetted. Sturt is Tier 1, Boothby Tier 2 and Makin Tier 3 especially if Tony Zappia retires
6. In WA Perth, Brand, Freemantle and Burt should not be targetted i think Cowan is lower priority. Pearce, Moore, Bullinwkle Tier 1 Targets. Hasluck Tier 2 and Swan Tier 3.
7. NT both seats are Targets although Solomon is Tier 1 and Lingiari Tier 2
8. Tasmania the 3 Northern seats will be targeted
9.The Coalition needs 33 seats for majority government if they dont want Teal seats then the swing i believe is abour 9% ALP to LNP which means winning up to Hunter
Banks is the most marginal Labor seat in NSW with a 2.4% margin. Hughes is on a 3.1% margin and had a much larger swing to Labor. Maybe the swing in Banks wasn’t as big due to David Coleman’s personal vote. The loss of Banks was a result of the Liberals repelling working-class CALD voters. The Palestine issue was undoubtly a factor but not the only one.
I think in the long-term, this will be as much of a target as Parramatta at the 2025 election – the Liberals can try but there’s no guarantee. It depends on how Zhi Soon (the new MP) goes or if David Coleman returns. It also depends on the Liberals’ ability to reconnect with white collar professionals, renters and migrants and the working-class and tradies of suburbia.
@Nimalan agree your points, I think it’s vital that ethnic and teal seats be targeted because there’s little elsewhere to win. Without targeting Banks, Deakin, Chisholm, Greenway, Menzies, Parramatta, etc plus the teal seats there’s no chance they can win government.
@Votante I think there’s still a chance Banks goes Liberal again next time. However there’s also every chance it becomes a bellwether like East Hills on the state level now that David Coleman’s personal vote isn’t a factor anymore.
banks would be classified as marginal it swung in line with the rest of the country. a small swing back to the libs would be enough to push it back over to the libs
Greenway is not even close anymore. Would they really start looking there for a seat to win?
@ben it will come back
In respect of the new member for Banks, this article from 2022
https://asianaustralianproject.com/2022/07/02/zhi-soon/
is informative.
It either confirms or rejects the race issue bias any of us may have, but, and we all recall the Aldi Bags of Cash (and lesser known CCP contributions to local ALP council libraries), given his career, I doubt the ASIO boss, when referring to foreign influence, has him in his sights!
I wish him well.
The demographic reality is than ‘old white males’ with western cultural backgrounds are no longer representative of the changing face of the electorate. The old cry of ‘populate or perish’ did have a rational basis, but, some cultures are not as equal or identifiable as others?
In the interview, the following comment was interesting cf s44 constitution issues:
“Many of my friends from Asian countries can’t get their [Australian] citizenship – or they don’t want to – because they don’t want to renounce their heritage and home country citizenship.
For them, it is a deeper tie than just a legal status. It is that connection to your culture, and your family, so giving that up for an Australian citizenship is not worth sacrificing.
So it is definitely more complex, particularly for Asians where culture is passed down, and there is an expectation that you will carry it on, so I can understand how that can be a difficult situation to put some Asian Australians.”
I once had political aspirations in this part of Sydney and was invited to a meeting of 24 Chinese leaders who spent the first 10 minutes deciding if the meeting would be in Cantonese or Mandarin. I politely sat through the remaining 45 minutes and only being fluent in our National language, realised I was in no position to represent them.
I now have no further political aspirations and hope some elements of my cultural heritage will survive like the rule of law and freedom of expression.
I doubt Mr Soon is going to disagree.
Fortuitously, and coincidentally, I received in the mail a thank you note from said Member for Banks, and whilst I do not support his party, his flier clearly identified the various statutory powers relevant to his federal mandate, state responsibilities and local government arenas!
My main criticism of the former member was his concentration on the state and local issues… maybe my wish was granted!
@ NP
I actually made a typo in my point 5 for the South Australians seats. Kingston, Adelaide, Spence and Hindmarsh are too safe for Libs so they should run dead for the time being.
* too safe for Labor i mean
@Ben I think it will go back should it be targeted properly.
@Nimalan I figured that was the case. Even though all of those seats have Liberal parts and even overlap with state Liberal seats the electorates put together vote Labor. Hindmarsh would need a redistribution that takes in the Liberal parts of it and the Liberal parts of Kingston to become a marginal seat.
@Nether Portal, Banks might become a bellwether given its low margin. Prior to 2013, it was a Labor heartland seat though it was quite marginal during the later years. It might become a mid-tier target for the Liberals as it’s quite middle-suburban.
In Banks i suspect the waterfront suburbs which are low density will continue to get better for Libs while more diverse Inland areas will be better for Labor going forward so two trends in opposite directions.