Hughes – Australia 2022

LIB 9.8%

Incumbent MP
Craig Kelly (IND), since 2010.

Geography
Hughes covers southern parts of Sydney. Most of the seat lies in the Sutherland Shire, including Menai, Bangor, Sutherland, Como, Jannali, Illawong, Barden Ridge, Engadine, Heathcote, Waterfall and Bundeena. The remainder of the seat lies at the southeastern end of the City of Liverpool, including Moorebank and Wattle Grove.

History
Hughes was first created in 1955 and has been held by the ALP for much of its history despite generally covering relatively affluent areas that would usually be thought of as more favourable to the Liberals. Its first MP was Les Johnson, who held the seat for Labor until he was defeated in the 1966 landslide by the Liberal Party’s Don Dobie. Dobie transferred to the newly created seat of Cook in 1969, and Johnson regained Hughes for the ALP, going on to serve as a minister in the Whitlam government.

Johnson resigned in December 1983, and was succeeded at a by-election by Robert Tickner, who went on to serve a high-profile tenure as Minister for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Affairs from 1990 until losing his seat when the Keating government lost office in 1996.

Danna Vale won the seat for the Liberals in 1996 and held the seat for the next five terms.

Vale retired in 2010 and Liberal candidate Craig Kelly won the seat, increasing the Liberal margin to 5.2%. Kelly has been re-elected three times.

Kelly resigned from the Liberal Party in February 2021 to sit as an independent, although he has continued to support the government on confidence and supply.

Candidates

Assessment
Hughes has shifted to become safer in recent, despite a history as a key marginal seat. It’s unlikely Labor would have won this seat if not for the Kelly independent candidacy. It seems most likely that Kelly will fall short and that the new Liberal candidate will win (if Kelly even runs), but his candidacy would open up a wider range of possible outcomes, including the potential for independent Georgia Steele.

2019 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Craig Kelly Liberal 50,76353.2+1.2
Diedree Steinwall Labor 29,08830.5-1.4
Mitchell Shakespeare Greens 6,6316.9-0.4
Gae ConstableAnimal Justice2,4392.6-1.4
Terrance KeepUnited Australia Party2,3662.5+2.5
Leo-Ning LiuChristian Democratic Party2,2162.3-2.5
Matt BryanIndependent1,9882.1+2.1
Informal5,2085.2+0.8

2019 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Craig Kelly Liberal 57,14959.8+0.5
Diedree Steinwall Labor 38,34240.2-0.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four parts. The majority of the population is in the urban parts of Sutherland Shire, and these booths have been split into “east” (including Como, Jannali and Sutherland) and “central” (including Menai).

Engadine, Waterfall, Bundeena and Heathcote have been grouped as “south”, while the booths in the Liverpool council area are grouped as “north-west”.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 54.8% in the south to 66.9% in the centre.

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
East55.122,14923.2
Central66.917,89118.7
South54.811,92612.5
North-West59.910,37510.9
Pre-poll60.822,78123.9
Other votes61.610,36910.9

Election results in Hughes at the 2019 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party and Labor.

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161 COMMENTS

  1. indicate that Craig will be out – palmer, rather than move to have Craig move to the senate, has elected to continue pushing him for the lower house.

    This indicates two things – either Clive is ready to let Craig go the way of Brian Burston ( not unlikely) or Clive believes that Craig can win. Theoretically if Clive (very unlikely) can mobilise the uneducated, working class, middle aged and male “trumpish demographic” he thinks he can and by some pie in the sky chance his fabled “polling in the 20’s” eventuates in western Sydney, then one could predict something like this

    Craig: 25%
    Gibbons:25%
    Steele: 13%
    Seymour: 12%
    Tsambalas: 18%
    Green: 7%

    Where, theoretically greens and Labor preference flows to kelly for a knifes edge contest where Craig comes out on top

    (Delete the other comment Ben, I accidentally used my other Email)

  2. James. I know they did. What I meant to say is even on THESE boundaries They still would have won it in the Hawke years. Some people suggested their have been allot of changes since then. There really hasn’t. Just an unpopular Labor party which Menzies once called the party of faceless men.

    I don’t agree these parts and places like Miranda and Holsworthy are trending Liberal. No evidence to suggest this. Labor has lost ground here due to it shifting more to the left. If it starts appealing to the working class again they can turn this into a marginal seat.

    Margin is HUGELY inflated here.

  3. It is true that Hughes used to be a Labor leaning seat until 1996. In 2007 Labor came close to winning it within 2.2% of winning it closest is recent years. A major demographic shift that has occurred in Australia is that many tradespeople are now self-employed and hence no longer unionised. This has turned the seat into a Liberal-leaning seat. . This is an area with a large percentage of the population who are tradespeople. The Shire is a very Anglo area and it is an area with a strong sense of local identity so having a PM from the Shire will help the Libs here. During the Carr years, State Labor held the corresponding state seats. I believe Labor can only win Hughes when a popular Labor government is running for reelection or if it is a landslide defeat for the Libs. https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/federal/2019/guide/hughes

  4. There has also been growth in this seat and it has been in areas that are more affluent and vote Liberal. In the 1990s, the seat still extended down into Wollongong. Another factor – and both main parties do this – is that resources are not allocated if a seat is not held or deemed winnable. And money and labour resources do translate into votes. Labor have seen this as unwinnable – not allocated resources – and diminished their opportunities.

  5. Daniel, your comments on this thread are absolutely asinine. My family have lived in the Shire for the last 50 years, first in Hughes and latterly in Cook. There is asbolutely no question that both seats have trended heavily to the Liberals, especially in the last 25 years.

    In the 80s and early 90s, Hughes was roughly 3 – 5% more Labor-leaning than NSW as a whole. Since 1996, that gap has generally been at least 5% – but IN FAVOUR of the Liberals. Particularly singificant cleavages were evident during the Howard years and since 2010. The Hawke years were decades ago during which much of this area was outer-suburban mortgage belt territory. These days, Menai, Barden Ridge, Kirrawee and elsewhere have seen considerable development in which old one-storey fibro hosues have been replaced by duplexes, apartments and designer homes. Furthermore, until 2001 Hughes included almost the entire corridor from the Royal National Park down to Stanwell Park so your comparison is seriously flawed.

    Nimalan’s explanation is 100% correct; Hughes has one of the highest proportions of tradespeople in Australia. This is a group which has become increasingly wealthy in recent years and is the exact demographic to which Howard and now Morrison were able to mobilise. If anything, the magin here is weak considering similar seats swung to the Liberals much more in 2019. The small margin in 2007 can partly be explained by Labor’s strong campaign; I haven’t seen any serious campaining by Federal Labor in any part of the Shire since then.

    Although Miranda isn’t even in Hughes, I feel obliged to discuss it since you mentioned it. Miranda is a bad example to use as evidence of the seat-wide trend since it routinely one of the weakest areas for the Liberals. That can be explained due to the high proportion of renters in the area and due to its status as a retail precicnt. The residential suburbs around Miranda have only firmed up for the Liberals in recent times. During the aforementioned period of time, Cook was about 5% more Liberal than NSW. Nowdays, it is closer to 10%. Why is Cook more Liberal than Hughes today? Well Cook contains much more established suburbs and a generally wealthier demographic – better water views = higher property prices.

    If the Libs lose this (which I seriously doubt), it won’t be because this seat in inherently swingy. Rather, because Craig Kelly has thrown a complete spanner in the works.

  6. Agree with you Wreathy, and I would add that where I used to live (in Beecroft, northern Sydney) is also undergoing a similar transformation to the places you referred to, in regards to new apartments and other developments. This is perhaps more so in suburbs to the south, around Epping, Eastwood and Carlingford.

    I think Daniel needs to learn that Sydney is substantially different to Brisbane, and that you cant just apply the same political methodology/analysis to both places. So far, in my year or so living in Brisbane, I have learnt that:

    1. The pace of development/redevelopment is a lot faster in Sydney compared to Brisbane
    2. There is more diversity and greater number of ethnic groups in Sydney

  7. Agree WOS and Yoh An, another point to make when comparing Brisbane to Sydney is that i feel that class identity and class segregation is stronger in Sydney. In Brisbane, you get affluent and working class suburbs closer together and hence often in the same seat at a federal level. For example, the affluent leafy riverside Centenary Suburbs and the deprived Inala are in the same seat. While in Sydney there is virtually no Labor voting suburbs in the Northern Beaches, North Shore or Hills District, just some areas where labor is a bit weaker. This means Sydney has a Blue Wall that covers these areas.

    Also i feel another thing about Barterer Brisbane is the size of the local councils which is unlike any other metro area in the state capitals. Its only Redlands which seems like a traditional local metro council with a recognisable identity and geography.

  8. True Nimalan, Brisbane City Council would be like 10 or more Sydney councils all combined into one, stretching out from Sydney City to include Ryde, Parramatta, Liverpool, Hurstville and all the Eastern suburbs.

  9. Word is the rumour that Melanie Gibbons is not running for Hughes is correct. Instead, it will be perennial candidate, seat shopper and former NSW Young Liberal President Alex Dore now running for pre-selection for Hughes.

  10. @Hawkeye_au thanks for the update

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/backroom-deal-infuriates-conservative-nsw-liberals/news-story/88c93b21c70ae23cf25efc9ece5292f9

    I remember seeing a similar article yesterday but didn’t have the full details. I had to do a quick search on Alex Dore and see he was angling for Warringah first https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/newslocal/manly-daily/warringah-liberals-open-search-for-candidate-to-take-on-zali-steggall/news-story/956c4baa63d953031b63ada93a721d01 and assume is the same one that ran in Grayndler 2010.

    Although, could you blame Dominic for speaking out and wanting one less by-election in NSW? I thought Jenny Ware actually had a good chance here under the Liberal banner. If Dore is the Liberal candidate, I’m going to have this seat as an IND gain.

  11. If Alex Dore is parachuted into Hughes, who has no connection whatsover to this seat apart perhaps from driving through it, all hell will break loose.

  12. echt
    Correction: all hell has already broken loose.
    Two independents from rival groups. The incumbent is an anti-mandate RWNJ who has been banned from multiple social platforms. A parachuted ex-Young Liberal who doesn’t live in the seat joining the race is just going to make the whole thing hilariously precarious.

  13. Latest Article from the Guardian confirms the rumours that the Liberal Party are set to parachute Alex Dore into Hughes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2022/jan/24/fury-at-backroom-deal-to-usher-former-young-liberal-into-federal-seat-of-hughes

    Some interesting pieces with this:
    1. It potentially sets up a showdown with two of Alan Jones’ favourites in Craig Kelly and Alex Dore.
    2. Contrary to what the article wrote, Alex Dore is NOT from the Northern Beaches. He lived there with his partner for a couple of years while he sized up a potential move to Warringah, which fell flat. Dore is actually born and raised in Pyrmont.
    3. This multi-faction agreement has its tenticles all over the place.

  14. @Hawkeye Correct. He was living in Pyrmont while he ran unsuccessfully in Grayndler (the seat next door) at the age of 20 in the 2010 election.

    To think that a blow-in like him would be supported by local party members in Hughes over either Melanie Gibbons or Jenny Ware is laughable, but they did support Craig Kelly for over 10 years on the other hand………..

  15. Agreed. The Shire is famously parochial. A parachuted candidate, whether they’re from the North Shore or Pyrmont is just asking to lose.

    I remember an article on Pollbludger that listed a field of 3 or 4 great local candidates. Why aren’t the Libs wooing any of them?

  16. @Mick – I can say that, having been involved in the YL’s with Alex Dore, he is willing to throw anyone under the bus to push himself forward. Once treated as the Next Big Thing by the CR, he then jumped ship to the Mods following a deal that included Christopher Rath (a former darling of the HR) joining as well. This spilled the balance of the party in NSW. Since then, the 3-cornered factional battles in NSW disintegrated and now Dore is effectively trying to play the field to get his own way.

    @WoS – Dore displays the worst of what it is like to be a parachuted candidate into a parochial area (the Northern Beaches). Fun Story – I bumped into him in Manly after a Warringah v Manly match (which is actually the biggest club rugby game in the Southern Hemisphere and Dore, completely oblivious to my allegiance, was celebrating that he was with Tony Abbott and me celebrating a Manly Marlins win, oblivious that I support the Warringah Rats, less-so that a good friend of mine was the Fullback for the Rats as well. He simply didn’t get the lay of the land on the Northern Beaches and I have no doubt that he will fake the same attitude when he attempts to run for Hughes.

    The worst part: He claims to be a Dragons Support because of John Howard. So what, he became a Manly Fan because of Tony Abbott and then a Sharkies Support because of ScoMo? Seriously…

  17. Shameless sports team pandering is hardly new and it obviously worked for Morrison.

    Speaking as an outsider it’s looking like the moderates’ days are numbered in the Liberal Party, regardless of the outcome of Hughes. There have little remaining strength in the branches and there’s really no reason for anyone other than the most cynical ‘centrist’ careerists to get involved in the party and it’s getting a lot harder even for them. The faction’s already basically extinct everywhere other than NSW and SA.

  18. Furtive, aren’t there still a few ‘moderates’ left in Queensland? I thought Brisbane MP Trevor Evans is one since he is openly gay and seems to stay away from the hard right “Dutton” group/faction. I understand most of the Liberals in Queensland are from the right faction, including Gerard Rennick and Amanda Stoker

  19. The Queensland branch (in terms of moderates) likely never made it given the merger with the Nats. I’d say Warren Entsch, Trevor Evans and Angie Bell (Moncrieff) are the only ones that spring to mind. They’re also rare everywhere else. WA only has Reynolds and Wyatt, Tasmania has Colbeck and Archer, and SA have Birmingham, Stevens (Sturt) and McLachlan. IMHO the defeat of Turnbull in 2018 has led to the move to the right, and the bleeding of those small-l Liberals to the Voices movement, while the Libs continue to get more conservative religious types into the party.

  20. There’s also Warren Entsch and Angie Bell along with Trevor Evans. But Evans and Entsch are fairly old incumbents, and Bell is there from, AFAIK, a haley’s comet preselection that capitalized on an unusually large playing field. But I don’t see a mod ever being preselected for a winnable seat in Qld again, other than on the city council. They couldn’t even secure 3rd position on the LNP ticket. They’re dead, they just don’t know it yet.

    But I meant my comments in a more long term sense. The mods will linger here and there, but there will never be another Malcolm Turnbull. They’ll disappear even sooner if Morrison loses the leadership. Dutton, for example, will absolutely not lift a finger to thrash out any factional deal to keep them around. He’ll throw them to the wolves. The Morrison faction will be the new ‘left’, if it doesn’t melt away. It’s just a matter of time.

  21. Probably the LNP will go the way of the Republicans in the US, where moderates will no longer fit in to the party and will defect.

  22. Perhaps there needs to be a revival of the Democrats or creation of some new centre-right party that latches onto the moderate Lib vote, the Voices movement seems to be doing this but it is fairly loose and not well organised nationally.

  23. I wouldn’t call Evans old or long serving, he was first elected in 2016 and is 40 years old. He could serve a few more terms at least.

  24. He might. But he only got up when Turnbull was in charge, at a high water mark for moderate strength, in the single most socially progressive seat in the state. Maybe the local branch is different to the party at large – BJA might know about them, if he cares to comment – but if it’s anything like the rest of the LNP branches in Brisbane then Evans won’t be succeeded by another moderate. Even that might not be enough to save him. It wasn’t enough for Jane Prentice.

  25. Some of the Queensland Nats might like to go and join some right wing populist grouping instead….!!!

  26. Since the Federal Election Open Thread now has comments closed, I’ll post this here. I was looking at 2CP across the last decade and if there were any trends, and thankfully we have 4 elections (2010,2013,2016,2019) to look at data from. Though this might be an interesting point just to look at how this shows that Craig Kelly really is up against it here.

    Electorates that had 2CP contests rose significantly in the second half of the decade.
    2010 – 7, 2013 – 8, 2016 – 16, 2019 – 15

    Although electorates that actually had IND/Minor win is quite low:
    2010 -5, 2013 – 5, 2016 – 5, 2019 – 6

    This doesn’t include by-elections (such as Wentworth being an IND held/gained but shows up in 2019 as one of the 2CP contests) and I also don’t include the WA Nats as a Minor/IND. (For the record it would be O’Connor in 2010 they won vs Libs, then lost that seat to come second in 2CP against libs in 2013 in Durack and O’Connor but nothing since.) I don’t include them as they’re essentially one of the major parties and that would mean including Nats in VIC as well (2013 – Mallee Lib Hold vs Nats, 2016 – Murray Nat Gain vs Libs).

    When you look at overall numbers federally, there’s been a trend up, but that only shows part of the picture. NT/ACT/WA (Exc. WA Nats) have not had a 2CP contest in this period.
    TAS has one and that’s Wilkie all the way.
    QLD had 1 in 2010 (IND-Kennedy) and then 2 in the next 3 elections (KAP-Kennedy all elections and then 2013 UAP-Fairfax for wins and curiously Maronoa in 2016 and 2019 with PHON coming second both times.)

    That’s fairly stable. SA had 0 in 2010 and 2013, then 4 2CP contests in 2016 thanks to NXT (Barker, Grey, Mayo, Port Adelaide) with 2019 reverting to 1 (Mayo-CA). But the growth in 2CP contests is in VIC and NSW.
    VIC 2010 – 2, 2013 – 4, 2016 – 5, 2019 – 5
    NSW 2010 -3, 2013 – 1, 2016 – 4, 2019 – 6
    [For those interested in the electorates:
    VIC 2010 Batman, Melb GRN, VIC 2013 Batman, Melb, Wills GRN Indi-IND, VIC 2016 Batman, Higgins, Melb, Wills GRN Indi-IND, VIC 2019 Cooper, Kooyong, Melb, Wills GRN Indi-IND.
    NSW 2010 Grayndler GRN, Lyne, New England – IND, NSW 2013 New England – IND, NSW 2016 Grayndler, Warringah GRN, Cowper, New England IND, NSW 2019 Grayndler GRN, Cowper, Farrer, New England, Warringah, Wentworth – IND.]

    One thing to notice, is the 2CP seems to be in the same seats and takes time to build up. Sure Mayo popped up but that area had a history (eg 1998 vs Dems was close). Looking at Hughes, major party vote has been between 73% (2019) and 86% (2013).

    If Hughes really does fall to UAP or IND, it’ll be historic on many fronts. I hope the above comment was a nice little analysis to keep the conversation going 🙂

    PS: As an aside it really does show the rise and consolidation of the Greens in VIC.
    PPS: You can still see the impact of Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott with New England featuring the whole time and Lyne/Cowper featuring.
    PPPS: Of the 6 crossbenches won at the election, 3 have been since 2010 (Katter, Bandt, Wilkie) and shows once you get it and last a couple of elections, you become hard to dislodge. Although Windsor and Oakeshott found out in 2013 all things eventually come to an end. Indi being IND since 2013 makes up the 4th while Mayo since 2016 makes up the 5th. I expect all those 5 to retain. The 6th being Zali, I think she’ll hold on. Now Katter was a Nat before IND before KAP. But Kelly is no Katter. I’m thinking more a Steve Dickson or Jason Costigan… but I disgress.

  27. P_O
    All this information spot on. (& an interesting presentation)
    Conclusions; on running an insurgency; Many are called few are chosen, even if you make the run-off, & historicity is, I guess, in the eye of the beholder. Other commentary;
    – 73% major party primary vote (MPPV) is no mathematical bar to an independent incursion, & the defection of the runaway winner (carrying 64% of that MPPV) can only harm that MPPV number.
    The past MPPV results in Indi are sobering reading for any safe seat holder: 2007 – 87%, 2010 – 80%.
    So Hughes appears even more ripe for an independent incursion on that measure. (although the MPPV falling away does look familiar)
    PS – Peter Khalil, Ged Kearney, & Katie Allen probably wouldn’t say no to some more of this ‘consolidation of Greens in Vic.’
    The seat of Cooper has even been consolidated off the target-seat list. It now transpires that Julian Burnside QC no longer seeks a position, so the value of his consolidation of the position in Kooyong remains to seen.
    PPS – Tony Windsor is the run-off candidate in the alternate election years, & didn’t nominate on subsequent alternate occasions (- of sample examined).
    He stated that his fateful decision in 2010 was driven by an aversion to facing the people, & thus he ordained his electoral termination date.
    Influence is, I guess in the eye of the beholder.
    PPPS – I’m not sure what implication follows from a prior party allegiance -they are all hot favourites, with the proviso that the mantle could be passed to Robbie Katter at a general Election soon.
    Rebekha Sharkie is an ex-Liberal, with justification for leaving the fold, who probably would not arouse a concerted effort by Liberal Party.
    Zali Stegall is perhaps more polarising, but many seats have greater claim to Liberal attention.
    Bandt is truly ‘consolidated,’ so Labor have every reason to nominate an endorsed candidate, & begin endeavouring to claw back some ground.
    Wilkie & ors., unassailable as you say.
    Hope this passes for conservation. It is, I guess, in the eye of the beholder.

  28. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-officials-battle-to-salvage-deal-to-settle-nsw-preselections-20220127-p59rnw.html?btis&fbclid=IwAR3qAap4Xa8EcmSl7dbMPZ2YWmJQDO4LPzILg31n72f4NpQ0So5Pv-nKP5I

    Looks like Melanie Gibbons has not stopped her attempt at Hughes and is actively pushing to have that preselection, with the current deal being that Alex Dore would be parachuted into the seat. To me, it is a stupid situation to have someone like Dore just enter the seat like this, especially given how hard Gibbons had worked to turn Menai/Holdsworthy into a decent Liberal Seat at the State Level.

    The issue is the lack of candidates for seats with the Federal Election still expected for May.

  29. @Hawkeye_au I was just reading the same article, beat me to it! As mentioned in a previous comment above, an article saying Dominic wanted to avoid another by-election is understandable and could be the reason why they’re trying to push someone in here to run other than Gibbons (even if it’s Dore!). Although this quote from the article I find interesting… ,”while Ms Gibbons has warned party bosses passing her over for Hughes is no guarantee of avoiding a byelection in her current seat of Holsworthy.” Blast through approach? I admit I’m shocked at how late some of these pre-selections are considering it’s less than 4 months for the supposed May 21st date!

    @Phil thanks for your long reply! I put some time in that comment so appreciate some feedback. And true the MPPV as you put it isn’t a barrier but I use it as a rough indicator to see which seats are more susceptible overall.
    Re: Windsor, my point was not that he ran every election since, but because of the electorate being used to voting for an independent, and with his support, the vote has stayed strong up there.
    Re: prior party allegiance – is more looking at the amount of times a MP has switched from Lib/Lab/or actually any party to IND to then their own party and then not being re-elected, with success being low or short-lived.

    The only thing I’m probably under-estimating is how many yellow shirts will flood the electorate during election time. Still I’ll see if Gibbons actually makes a successful tilt at pre-selection. If she does, I reckon the LNP might, just might hold this one.

  30. The issue with Gibbons running is that she’s too valuable of an asset to the state Libs. I don’t rate her at all (and absolutely hate her husband) but even I can’t deny that she’s done a good job working Holsworthy. When she first ran, it was primarily a Shire-based seat which was more Liberal than the state average. Now, it’s almost an entirely Liverpool-based seat and yet she has continued to hold on.

  31. I suspect that if the Libs should lose any of Bega, Monaro or Willoughby then she can have anything she wants as long as she stays stateside. If they win all three then she might be allowed to go.

  32. Melanie Gibbons has every right to pull the pin in Holsworthy if Dore is the candidate, and rightly so.

    That this scheme was ever so brazenly dreamed of as an ideal arrangement by NSW Liberals head office, they would not just lose Hughes, they would also lose Holsworthy at a by-election. Hughes FEC President John Riad has also dig his heels in explaining that no locals would bother campaigning for Dore if he was the candidate. Big mistake.

    Reminds me of when Janice Crosio backhandedly handed her opponent in Prospect a street directory as he lived in the east and was contesting her seat in the south western suburbs.

  33. I’d reckon Labor would win said by-election, although given not much happened in Strathfield, even with two fairly high-profile candidates.

  34. What’s your gut say Ben?
    Is Gibbons quitting and running for Hughes or quitting politics altogether (Libs nominate someone else).
    Either way there is a by-election I guess

  35. Craig Kelly released his list of UAP candidates the other day. Have any of these people run for the UAP before or are they all new? Interesting to see if there is any continuity at all.

  36. Glad someone remembered the Crosio anecdote, as she was my local State and Federal MP for around 12 years in total. From memory, it was the Liberal candidate for the 2001 Federal Election, who I think was Gareth Perkins. At the time, he hailed from Maroubra. Got a great run in the local Fairfield papers, alongside the usual rancid letters to the editor section. Ironically, he managed to get a swing towards the Liberals at that particular election.

    As for Gibbons, I’ve said in the past that she is a decent, quality local MP. The fact she has kept Holsworthy ticking along as a Liberal seat has been outstanding. I think her work has been a great foundation for Ned Mannoun to reclaim the mayoralty at last year’s Liverpool Council election. If she left for Federal politics, it wouldn’t be a certainty that Labor would win Holsworthy but it would be a very close-run thing. Federally, she would be much better than Craig Kelly.

  37. Latest update (and I will be running the same update across multiple seats):
    State President Phillip Ruddick has submitted to NSW Liberal State Exec for Alex Dore to be parachuted in as the Liberal Candidate for Hughes, bypassing a Pre-selection that would include Melanie Gibbons, Jenny Ware and Alex Cook.
    Early word is that this will be approved.

  38. @Hawkeye if that is indeed the case one must wonder if Philip Ruddock and the NSW Liberal Party backroom actually wants to lose this election, as it seems they are doing whatever they can to precipitate huge losses across all of NSW by dragging their feet on preselections and passing over Melanie Gibbons for Alex Dore, a Young Lib careerist who has absolutely no connection to the Hughes electorate at all. If he is the candidate, they risk losing that seat, even to Labor.

    You can bet that Melanie Gibbons would quit NSW Parliament in disgust and the seat would be lost to Labor in a by-election.

    This speaks volumes about the decay that has set in the NSW Libs and can only be remedied by a purge of all leadership after a long period of soul searching, who really only have themselves to blame.

  39. I understand that the Libs probably want to keep Gibbons stateside as their position is weakened following the loss of Bega recently. However, the other candidates (including Jenny Ware) are far more worthy of nomination than Alex Dore so they should at least let the preselection go ahead, and try and persuade Gibbons that she is more valuable staying on as a State MP.

  40. Jenny Ware (who I understand is a local in the Sutherland Shire area) has a high profile and could be favoured to win a Holsworthy by election, so there is also the option of Gibbons running in Hughes and Jenny Ware to contest Holsworthy.

  41. If the Liberals do indeed lose this (Name one occasion in history where a sitting party managed to hold a seat with still no candidate a month out from the election) then I would entirely blame the fact that couldn’t agree on a candidate this late. If it is Gibbons and she somehow made it through it would be extremely marginal but don’t rule out all of the key seats the Libs don’t have candidates in have healthy swings to the incumbent party/member (Including Stegall in Warringah)

    Craig Kelly has a shot due to this infighting and besides the Liberals will not put Labor above him so I give him a fair chance. I see him only holding for 1 term and should go back in 2025 (Similar fate to Graeme Campbell, Allan Rocher and Paul Filing) who I believe were re-elected once as an independent/minor party to only lose the election after that.

    If there is a Holsworthy by-election it should be safely gained by Labor due to circumstances. This should have been sorted months ago but the Liberals are leaving it too late that it is going to court.

  42. Daniel – to answer your first question, Reid 2019. That wasn’t too hard! And it’s nearly 2 months out!!

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