No contest, Labor gain, the voting poster scandal will hurt the incumbent even though the courts dismissed the findings because I’m sure there are many voters who still are raising questions about the conduct of the 2019 campaign. And if the 58-42 poll in Victoria is to be believed (which it will tighten but remember the Liberals can’t afford a swing against them here) then this seat is toast. It was a shocking upset that the Liberals held on here last time but perhaps that was due to Negative Gearing and Franking credits, those policies were dumped this time so this should revert back to the Anna Bourke margins in her years. Will remain marginal but is unlikely to fall Liberal again outside of landslide years. And while there is a large Asian demographic here it is silly to assume it will change much because people don’t vote for someone because of their race they vote base on merit and policy so if the Liberals do somehow hold (which if they do they will be heading for a landslide win) then it will be because they won it on the issues not the candidate of choice.