Wagga Wagga – NSW 2019

IND 9.6% vs LIB

Incumbent MP
Joe McGirr, since 2018.

Geography
Southwestern NSW. The seat covers all of the City of Wagga Wagga and Lockhart Shire, and the parts of Snowy Valleys council surrounding Tumut.

History
The seat of Wagga Wagga was first created in 1894. With the exception of the period 1904-1913 and 1920-1927, the seat has existed ever since. The seat has been held by the Liberal Party since 1957.

The seat was held by the Country Party from 1927 to 1941, when it was won by the ALP’s Eddie Graham. He served as a minister from 1944 until his death in 1957.

The Liberal Party’s Wal Fife won the 1957 by-election. He served as a minister from 1967 until 1975, when he resigned from Wagga Wagga to contest the federal seat of Farrer. He served as a federal minister from 1977 to 1983. He moved to the seat of Hume in 1984, and held the seat until his retirement in 1993.

The 1975 Wagga Wagga by-election was won by Joe Schipp. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1988 to 1993, and retired in 1999.

Wagga Wagga has been held since 1999 by Daryl Maguire. He won the seat as a Liberal MP in 1999. He resigned from the Liberal Party in July 2018 after admitting that he had sought payment over a property deal at an ICAC hearing.

The 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election was won by independent candidate Joe McGirr.

Candidates

Assessment
McGirr should be in a stronger position at the general election next March, but wouldn’t be guaranteed of a win.

2015 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Daryl Maguire Liberal 25,06153.8+0.2
Dan Hayes Labor 13,08428.1+18.0
Paul FunnellIndependent4,5239.7+9.7
Kevin Poynter Greens 2,3205.0+1.6
Keith PechChristian Democrats1,1112.40.0
Joe SidotiNo Land Tax5151.1+1.1
Informal1,5483.2

2015 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Daryl Maguire Liberal 26,70462.9-14.9
Dan Hayes Labor 15,75637.1+14.9

2018 by-election result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Julia Ham Liberal 12,03125.5-28.3
Joe McGirrIndependent12,00325.4+25.4
Dan Hayes Labor 11,19723.7-4.4
Paul FunnellIndependent5,02810.6+0.9
Seb McDonaghShooters, Fishers & Farmers4,6829.9+9.9
Ray Goodlass Greens 1,3772.9-2.1
Tom ArentzChristian Democrats9001.9-0.4
Informal1,5613.2

2018 by-election two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%
Joe McGirrIndependent23,00159.6
Julia Ham Liberal 15,57040.4

2018 by-election two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Dan Hayes Labor 18,49550.1+13.0
Julia Ham Liberal 18,38949.9-13.0

Booth breakdown

Booths in Wagga Wagga have been split into four parts. There are three local government areas in the electorate of Wagga Wagga. Polling places in Snowy Valleys (mainly the Tumut area) and Lockhart council areas have been grouped together. Those in the Wagga Wagga council area, which covers a large majority of the seat’s population, were split between those in the city itself (“Wagga Wagga”) and those in the surrounding rural areas (“Wagga Wagga Surrounds”).

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all areas at the 2015 election, ranging from 60.5% in Tumut to 71.7% in Lockhart.

At the 2018 by-election, independent candidate Joe McGirr did best in Wagga Wagga, and worst in Tumut. Liberal candidate Julia Ham did best in Lockhart and Tumut, and much worse in Wagga. Labor’s vote was highest in Tumut and Wagga Wagga.

2015 booth breakdown

Voter groupLIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Wagga Wagga60.718,46439.6
Wagga Wagga Surrounds66.54,90010.5
Tumut60.54,0768.7
Lockhart71.71,5023.2
Other votes65.66,43313.8
Pre-poll63.011,23924.1

2018 by-election booth breakdown

Voter groupMcGirr prim %ALP prim %LIB prim %Total votes% of votes
Wagga Wagga28.226.020.817,46637.0
Wagga Wagga Surrounds26.119.825.35,29311.2
Tumut18.326.129.43,2636.9
Lockhart23.216.532.01,5363.3
Other votes22.919.831.95,10710.8
Pre-poll24.524.027.314,55330.8

Two-party-preferred votes in Wagga Wagga at the 2015 NSW state election

Results of the 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election
Toggle between primary votes for independent candidate Joe McGirr and the Liberal and Labor candidates.

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8 COMMENTS

  1. Shocking that the ALP would have won here if it was Lib vs Labor, But only Narrowly, Just shows how much trouble the NSW Liberals might be in at the next state election, I don’t think the Liberals are favourites (According to Sports bet they are) I know they won a landslide in 2011, But no matter the margin it does not determine how long your in gov, Look at QLD, Liberals had a Similar Victory but was only a 1 term government, So back on topic, IND retain and he even could be a key figure if the election comes to a hung Parliament (which i think it will with Labor being the largest party)

  2. The agreement was held between Parties that the Nats would get a free run in Wagga Wagga but the local Liberals are kicking up a stink about it.

    IMO, it would be best for the Nats to be allowed to run as they should be able to win the seat back with a focused campaign.

  3. Any intel on the preferences in this seat?

    Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Conservatives, Labor and even the Greens will decide who out of Dr Joe or Mackenna Powell wins.

    I’m assuming SFFP, Labor and the Greens will direct voters to Dr Joe and that the Conservatives will run a Vote 1 strategy.

  4. Don’t overlook the combination of a correction back from the by election protest vote, the Nats running and lastly Paul Funnell’s 10% of the vote. I am not confident about anything to do with this vote.

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