Longman by-election, 2018

Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Susan Lamb is expected to resign due to her being a dual citizen at the time of nomination for the 2016 election, after the High Court clarified the constitutional requirements on May 9, 2018.

Margin – ALP 0.8%

Geography
Moreton Bay region of Queensland. Longman covers the former Caboolture Shire and parts of the former Pine Rivers shire. The main towns in the seat are Caboolture, Morayfield, Burpengary and Narangba. The seat also covers a majority of Bribie Island.

History
Longman was created for the 1996 election. It was first won by Mal Brough. Brough held the seat from 1996 until 2007, during which time Brough served as a minister from 2001 and joined the Howard cabinet in 2006.

Brough was defeated in 2007 in one of the nation’s largest swings against a Coalition MP, with a 10.3% swing giving the seat to the ALP’s Jon Sullivan. Sullivan was previously the state member for Caboolture for nine years before losing to the One Nation candidate in 1998.

In 2010, Jon Sullivan was defeated by Liberal National candidate Wyatt Roy. Roy was elected at the age of 20 in 2010, and is the youngest ever member of the House of Representatives. Roy was elected to a second term in 2013. Roy lost in 2016 to Labor candidate Susan Lamb.

Candidates

  • Lloyd Russell (Liberal Democrats)
  • Jim Saleam (Australia First)
  • Gregory Bell (Democratic Labour)
  • Jackie Perkins (Independent)
  • James Noonan (Science Party)
  • Matthew Stephen (One Nation)
  • John Reece (People’s Party)
  • Susan Lamb (Labor)
  • Trevor Ruthenberg (Liberal National)
  • Blair Verrier (Country Party)
  • Gavin Behrens (Greens)

Assessment
Longman is an extremely marginal seat. Labor benefited in 2016 from a favourable how-to-vote preference recommendation from One Nation. Without that preference flow the seat would’ve likely stayed with the LNP, and a change in recommendation may set Labor back. This seat could well flip to the LNP if they contest the by-election.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 34,35939.0-5.8
Susan Lamb Labor 31,16135.4+4.7
Michelle PedersenOne Nation8,2939.4+9.4
Ian Bell Greens 3,8654.4+0.5
Will SmithFamily First3,0023.4+1.1
Frances McdonaldDrug Law Reform2,6773.0+3.0
Brad KennedyKatter’s Australian Party1,5971.8-1.0
Greg RiddellIndependent1,1111.3+1.3
Rob LawIndependent9451.1+1.1
Caleb WellsIndependent8300.9-0.1
Stephen BeckArts Party2280.3+0.3
Informal8,2178.5

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Susan Lamb Labor 44,72950.8+7.7
Wyatt Roy Liberal National 43,33949.2-7.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths near Bribie Island have been grouped as Pumicestone.

Booths in the remainder of the seat have been divided in three: from north to south, these are West, Caboolture-Morayfield and Burpengary.

Labor won a large two-party-preferred majority of 60.8% in Caboolture-Morayfield and a smaller majority of 53.9% in Burpengary. The LNP won majorities in the two less populous areas: 52.9% in Pumicestone and 54.2% in the west.

The One Nation primary vote ranged from 7.8% in Pumicestone to 10.9% in the west.

Voter groupON prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Caboolture-Morayfield10.160.815,88118.0
Burpengary8.453.914,94217.0
Pumicestone7.847.18,96910.2
West10.945.85,3596.1
Other votes11.045.814,47916.4
Pre-poll9.048.228,43832.3

Election results in Longman at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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175 COMMENTS

  1. Are you serious ? The One Nation candidate has been on Sky channel at least three times from what I’ve seen as well as on Morayfield Rd and other places in the electorate all over the place with signs…Pauline is up there every 2nd day…I know you don’t like One Nation but credit where credit is due they have got more coverage in Longman than any of the Majors thus far…

  2. Interested Observer
    YEs I am serious. I have travelled Morayfield Rd 3 times in last 4 days and saw no evidence of campaigning by ANY candidate. I am hostile to ALP LNP and Ashby Hanson parties but I am not liar. I have seen no evidence of PHON activity.

    Maybe you would liok to tell uis when PHON has voted differently to Liberals in Parliament. Sheuis a running dog of Liberal Party whose votes for Liberal Party are as reliable as Barnaby Joyce’s..

    She is n=mouthing that she will noty opreference LIberals in GEneral election buit still appears to be preferenving themn at the moment.

    Why don’t you tell us when and where the PHON Branch is meeting. My guess is that it is not meeting at all. No way that you will let uis know wge\here they are going to be in advance or they will be swamped buy hostile opponents. The Idi Amin of Australian politics (President for Life )wants the AEC voter subsidy of $2.70 per vote.

    .

  3. There’s many valid reasons to criticise Hanson, but you can’t bag her for “only wanting to get the pay per vote” in a place like Longman.

    This is a strong area for them, and they’d have some chance of either winning, or at least polling well enough to cause trouble for the major parties.

  4. @AndrewJackson,

    I have been campaigning in the electorate 14hrs a day since my endorsement. We had Pauline spend last Thursday and Friday here as well. Possibly follow my FB page if you would like to keep updated.

  5. I came from an era where campaigning meant seeking out and meeting with the voters not expecting voters to come to them .Matthew Stephen seems to have the same attitude to voters as Candidate Pedersen had at B riviera Island. pre-poll stand still and wait for voters to seek her out. Compare this with ALP campaigning Bill Shorten at Public meeting last week Sally Mc Manus at public meeting next Wednesday. PH no doubt with Ashby Attached at our expense comes into electorate on near secret visit to avoid a visible backlash by protesters not even those reading PHON web page knowing of her visit andscarpering back to Canberra at our expense. We need to remember a vote for MatthewStepen is as much a vote for a political operator who will do as directed as a vote for Lamb or Ruthenberg. When I see you campaigning I will introduce myself but so far only campaigning I have seen is by Susan LambZza.

  6. @Matthew Stephen

    There is not doubt the Hanson knows how to make a buck in politics. Who could forget her stint in the UAP whereby she took off with some 200K and the mysterious plane that Ashby seem to inherit when he was almost broke. She loves the media and they seem to love her who forget her gig on dancing with the stars and then her very brash dancing with Ashby’s Gay lover in Parliament. Or her gig on channel 7 before the 2016 Federal Election.
    Whatever she stood for in 1998 has no bearing on the cashed up Pauline off today. The Pauline off today has trashed all her loyal supporters of yester year whether in Qld or WA she certainly has show she is a total dictator along with her very dubios offsider “Ashby” … Who had great bearing in unseating Mal Bough (potential Prime Minister) , Peter Slipper (former speaker of the house) and no doubt added to Wyatt Roys demise. But as they say without any other real minor standing PHON could have a big say in who does win the seat.

  7. Why are so many people willing to say, oh this is likely to go back to Labor, it’s just natural, it’s not the end of the world for Labor as things worked in their favour to win this in 2016. I call bull on that. This is a marginal seat, by-elections just about always in history are bad for the sitting government and also a reflection of the leaders at the time, and that’s usually without any sitting members and often it’s a seat held by the government. If Labor do not win this by-election (and I’m starting to think they won’t) with the sitting member re-contesting, Bill Shorten simply must take the blame and questions immediately need to be asked about whether he should remain leader. It’s as simple as that.

  8. Andrew Jackson
    A visit from Sally McManus is meant to HELP !?. Wow, Rustenberg must be doing cartwheels ! Perhaps they can organise Penny Wong to follow up ?

  9. Feel the Bern
    This is just returning to the same theme. If Albo was leader the Libs would be toast. However the unions chose BS. He is their boy. End of story. Questions have ALWAYS been asked about BS. I refer you back to my posts in the Brisbane thread, Which Ben appears to have deleted

    If the LNP do capture Longman i doubt anything will change. I don’t see many impassioned risk takers in the ranks of Labor MPs. It must be frustrating for one such as yourself that cares….

  10. @Feel the Bern

    Because at the last Federal Election Susan Lamb had the support of all minors which is not the norm. The anti Wyatt Roy was the move that elected her. She was given a few hints on how to hold that support but ignored them.
    She wont get that same support this time around.

  11. Can’t assume because of a change in onp prefs and the anti Wyatt Roy factor that the seat will elect the liberal

  12. @Mick quinlivan

    It wasnt just One Nation prefs that got her over the line it was a well orchestrated campaign and even parties like FF went her way.
    She holds the seat on .08% but lost badly on her personal vote so the minors dragged her across the line. She ignored that and failed to take reasonable steps to hold those preferences. So hard to see her win running by herself.

  13. Indeed if One Nation preferences flowed the same way they did in the rest of Queensland (slightly favouring LNP) then the seat would’ve been basically a tie instead of 50.8% to Labor. It’s a small effect.

    What Brisbane thread are you talking about winediamond? I haven’t deleted any comments recently.

  14. Tony is completely on target. Susan Lamb in 2016 was viewed by most minors as being less of a threat to community in ALP than Wyatt Roy with near identical views was in the LNP. Roy lost the election because of his views on abortion and SSM. Those who will move their preference from one major to another will decide the determine this election.Susan Lamb chose to be a force in favour of SSM and this will probably cost her the election. Libs in selecting a social conservative have probably ensured that their is little leakage to ALP.

    I spotted a PHON street stall between Narangbah and Burpengary today. No sign of humans attached to the stall but I was driving so could not look. Therefore I accept that MatthewStephen is campaigning. However I saw no evidence prior to this of anything other than other than using mass media.

  15. @Feel the Bern

    I agree, I don’t think it is natural for Longman to go back to the LNP, albeit that I would hope so.

    When I think of Caboolture, all I think of is working class Labor (and other thoughts as I sit here in the leafy western suburbs…). True though, these are traditional socially conservative types that Labor drifts further away from.

    The only strong LNP parts of Longman I see are Woodford and surrounds – sure, Bribie Island and surrounds are becoming flashier with waterfront canal estates but I think its still quite mixed at this stage.

    As much I would love for the LNP to win to increase the Coalition’s majority, I am sceptical, especially if it spurs a change that means us losing the general election…

  16. @ winediamond, yep it’s frustrating as history shows Labor can win this seat when they have a good leader. Rudd 2007 had plenty of momentum and was at that stage liked, Labor recorded a double digit swing to them and won it off a sitting minister. I think LNP will win Longman with a 2pp somewhere of 52.5-47.5 or 53-47. The fact that Labor can’t get a stranglehold on a seat with Caboolture as its main area, shows what a dismal leader Bill Shorten is, especially when you realise Labor holds all the states seats within the Longman area except Pumicestone. I actually like Susan Lamb but she will be a victim of ant-Shorten vote. If Labor loses this badly, heads need to roll as Queensland is a deciding state in elections. Problem is Labor will do very well in WA by-elections and shouldn’t have any worries holding Braddon so that will overshadow any Longman loss and probably save Shorten. If I was Susan I’d be campaigning with the Qld Premier, who’s polling has recently gone up and say thanks but not thanks to any invitation from Bill to come and campaign.

  17. @ BJA from Ryan. I think had this by-election been held a few months back, Labor would have won but I think the Coalition is in a better position now. One Nation will decide this seat.

  18. @Feel the Bern

    Actually, a lot of Glass House is in Longman (Woodford area), which is another LNP held state seat.

    The LNP may be in a better position but, as this area is traditional socially conservative voters, PM Turnbull rather than Abbott is a factor I think. This being why Longman being lost in 2016… yes, anti-Wyatt Roy as a moderate but anti-Wyatt Roy because he supported Turnbull (championed as a moderate – the reason why the mainstream media considers the government to be unpopular).

    If Abbott remained PM, I think Longman could have been retained and Wyatt Roy would eventually lose next time. By the way, I don’t believe returning to PM Abbott is an answer…

  19. I’m interested in the assertion that this is socially conservative area. The SSM results showed a 60.4% yes vote from Longman, suggesting that the voters are more in tune with Lamb (and Roy) than the conservatives on this issue at least. Sure, this isn’t Batman, but it’s not New England either.

  20. Chris Unfortunately you are correct. But ALP/ Greens and LNP both have about 40% of votes meaning that the 39.6% of population that thought SSM was not appropriate will play a big part in this by-election. Most of the missing 10% are part of 39.6%. Wyatt Roy’s and Susan Lamb’s libertarian social policies may be a majority BUT each of respective vote is a minority. Therefore unless LNP or ALP/ Greens van increase their voter by 10% then the votes or Preferences of social conservatives will will determine the outcome of this election. Key point is that those with libertarian social policies are so split they will not vote to ensure that ALP or a Roy would have won.

    Campaigning evident on Morayfield Rd by Ashby – Hanson Party appropriately located outside Traditional Funerals , LNP outside Grenadier House in Morayfield which in the past has been Jon Sullivan’s electorate office, Wyatt Roy’s campaign office and subsequently his Parliamentary office and by ALP just South of Caboolture River. ALP also had some activity in Buchanan Park at Burpengary possibly a BBQ at a park renowned for attracting kerb crawling unattached males. Batman in Utes.

    Unless the Writs for the election have been issued all of these street stalls are illegal and Council should have cleared them.

    Council is brave and courageous when taking on fish stall salesmen and is as courageous as wet fish when dealing with political parties.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  21. I love the One Nation logic here.

    “Let’s protest against Wyatt Roy for being too left wing by……..electing someone even more left wing.”

    Genius

  22. Alex J. Correct according to summary on council website but each of these “info booths” breached some parts of summary.1 PHON well in excess of 6 signs signage on both sides of road 2) LNP signage recycled from Kallangur in excess of 1.5 Metres square and I think within 500 metres of a second info booth 3) ALP info booth unmanned . Therefore regardless of the date issue ( info I received from my MBRC councillor) All 3 info booths were in breach of By laws. Why is it that the major parties can not comply with the bylaws brought down by councils made up by their own party members.
    Andrew Jackson

  23. Australian people’s party are running John Reece in Longman according to FM101.5There party website confirms this. Reece stood as an independent in 2010 but I do not remember anything about him. There are about 10% of voters who rejected majors and extremes of left and right. No sign of a Katter candidate or an Australian Conservative. Sally Mc Manus has filled RSL at Caboolture but no evidence of pro ALP campaigning. Very pro union crowd so I ha better keep stum.At least 180 here.

  24. ACTU are conducting a well resourced “Change the Rules campaign in Longman 9 activities planned in 8 days. Culminating in a Big Doorknock on Saturday 9 June. At Caboolture Markets today 0630 to 1100. It seems strange that Trade Unions are campaigning for what we all assumed were rights when I commenced work in 1970.. l am not sure we need Susan Lamb but am actually certain that we need a return to Menzian Fraser era economics. ACTU are attacking neo-liberalism but the introducers of neo liberalism in Australia was Paul Keating and in Queensland God’s. Possibly time for ACTU to replicate its historical predecessor and form a Trade Union based party leaving ALP in hands of “the scum of middle class” ( Beazley’s’ Wording from memory).
    Andrew Jackson
    AAndrew

  25. When do nominations for this seat actually close? Maybe there will be a surprise package. For Christ’s sake let’s hope so.

  26. LNP road side (large Ute and trailer with sign in Burpengary East. Once again illegal parked on footpath. This area is three quarter acre blocks large numbers of Howard Battler types. Buckley Rd which is used by rat runners to go back way from Caboolture in North to Redcliffe / D Bay in east but most of rat running traffic drivers will not be Longman voters therefore trailer badly sited. Better location would have been adjacent to Hubb Shopping Centre where locals shop. So far no literature or pamphlets in Burpengary East or retirement home on Bribie although the latter is difficult to get into.Reachtell polled area last nigh with questions loaded to give answers that favour ALP. Are you more likely to favour a candidate who will cut school spending or cut tax for banks?

  27. First item in letterbox Susan Lamb Application for postal vote with covering letter. My prediction still LNP to win. Lloyd Russell now an official liberal democrat candidate. Additional minor party candidates likely tomorrow.

  28. Andrew Jackson
    Seeing as how everyman, & his dog is now running (minor parties!). Do you reckon we will have a result on the night ?

  29. First item in MY letterbox was a four-page flyer “On Your Side” (not a bad line).
    BUT the content, layout and wording could have been much better.
    FOUR times we’re told “teacher aide, Dakabin”. No other part of Longman rates a mention.
    Jeeeeez, how many votes in Dakabin ?
    I trust that future offerings will target areas with the big numbers. Perhaps a glance at the 2016 booth figures might be fruitful.

    ALSO – I reckon precious few people will read every word of the flood we’ll receive so verbosity and repetition should be avoided like the plague.
    Dot point – once !

    Maybe I should charge a fee to vet all material …. ?

    Unrelated question – what are the Greens doing ? Could they impact on the outcome ?
    Always struck me as slightly strange that they don’t attract a bit more support in a coastal region like this.

  30. winediamond –

    I’m not Andrew, but…

    Consider that the combined minor party primary vote share last time was about 25%, with Labor at 35 and the Liberals at 39. So we’d need to see a significant swing away from either or both of the majors for even the possibility of a non-2PP result.

    On the night, IIRC both a primary count and an indicative 2CP count is done. Unless polling radically shifts, I expect that 2CP count will be a 2PP count. If the primaries do not admit the possibility of another candidate overtaking either of the majors, then the 2CP count will suffice for a result on the night.

  31. winediamond:
    There is far less parties standing this time around then did last time.
    We have in order of nomination.
    ALP – First to nominate (incumbent)
    APP – Australian Peoples Party
    Lnp – Liberal National Party.
    Australian Country Party
    Liberal democratic Party. Greens are yet to nominate due to drop in popularity but are still attempting to have a candidate shortly

  32. Mark Mulcair:
    Wyatt Roy was simply disliked by all the minors and it was time for him to go. When someone does not deserve support then why should they expect it

  33. Toorbullite

    Greens announced their candidate today; Gavin Behrens who ran in Morayfield in the state election.

    Not expecting much from the Greens and they probably want to give Labor a clean shot at the seat; I don’t expect there’ll be much Adani or refugee related disruption of Susan Lamb. They should at least be able to staff all the booths so perhaps a small swing in their favour.

  34. Ben when will additional candidates be added to the list in your introduction?

    Please can you put an e-mail address for you back on the site. The message form is somewhat difficult to use. IF not prepared to put on site please send to me at apjackson2@bigpond.com

  35. Hi Andrew,

    Candidate updates are a low priority. I will do an update at some point but don’t see much urgency. I’ve marked the messages about the Greens and other candidates who’ve been announced and will include them when I get to it.

    I got your email about your candidate announcement, thanks. I don’t think I’ve ever shared my email address on the website.

  36. Ashby-Hanson candidate Matthew Stephen has plonked a shipping container at intersection of Buckley and Uhlman Ed’s. Very well sited to get visibility from all leaving East Burpengary rural residential area. Susan Lamb had vehicle and 6 A frames on Western Service rd this morning.Phone calls from ACTU tonight seeking help to prevent LNP from taking seat. .Poor bloke did not get very far with me because on industrial relations I fall in pro trade union camp but on social especially moral issues I am opposed to ALP. Therefore as I do not know which of major parties I will preference. It is much easier to decide bottom two PHON and Greens and the top two Australian Country Party followed by Australian People’s Party. The difficult task is which Major to put above the other.A choice between economic evil or social evil.
    Andrew Jackson

  37. LNP seem to have become activated in last few days. Flyer in letterbox via Australia Post stating that ALP is spreading falsehoods about funding of Caboolture Hospital and bulk billing in Longman. 2 x double sided corflutes up in Burpengary East on private property. One ALP activist showed some interest in Country Party preferences. LNP activists putting pressure on CP member re preferences. Country Party making no comment on preferences till at least close of nominations. Reports that ALP internal polling shows Susan Lamb slightly ahead. I still think likely result is LN P win by less than a thousand votes after preferences but when this close sun glasses a candidate wears an affect the result.
    Andrew Jackson

  38. More LNP corflutes appearing in Uhlmann Rd Burpengary. Comment received from a non political resident of a Bribie Island retirement village was that residents felt that Susan Lamb had ignored Bribie Island and that as a consequence her vote on Island would drop. If any drop in vote on Bribie LNP will win. Using Ben Raue’s aggregation of booths shown above LNP strength is in Bribie and prepolling . Pre poll voters are markedly dominated by retirees and the largest pre poll voting centre was On Bribie which was open for all of prepoll whilst other pre-poll booths were open in latter time of pre poll period. In effect it is now looking like an LNP gain. I still have not decided which major party to put ahead. At the moment my vote will be 1 Country Party’s Blair Verrier 2 Australian Peoples Party Peoples Party 3/4 Majors ( order yet to be determined 5 PHON 6 Greens. Caboolture Herald nearly ignores election. One story about PM visiting electorate relegated to p 14 and 1 Ad “Order the Lamb get the Bill” from LNP. Negative advertising does more harm than good.

  39. LNP on Morayfield Rd a bit North of Traditional Funerals and Garden Gems nursery. Looked like Big Trev however was a solo show no helpers. Well sited spot getting Caboolture and Morayfield residents (with a few Bribie residents avoiding the highway ) Amazing that after 9 years of Lib Lab government both promising to fix the highway that Bribie residents think rat running is time saving.

  40. ALP Flyer received via AUstarlia POSt

    “Trevor Ruthenberg was a loyal Campbell Newman MP when 615 Nurses got axed from Metro North… HE wants to curt $2.9 M from Caboolture Hospital. Photo of Campbell Newman and Ruthenberg. As I said many years ago ALP should have awarded Newman lifetime membership for his services to ALP.

    ONe reakltively disinterested polirtixcal observer stated that she couldf not tell who ALP flyer came from. SUsan Lamb not mentioned or photographed Similar to LNP flyer mentioned above 13 JUne in whicgh LNP neither photographed or mentioned Rurghenberg by name.

    Would aoppear that they both believe that their candidates are on the nose. Both believe that showing leader of other party will gain them more votes than photographs of own party leader. Possibly tIme for both LNP and ALP to ditch their leaders.

    Both Majors treat us like idiots and think that half sentence slogans based on half truths will get them votes. No MR Ruthenberg I “don’t believe Bill’s health lies” and no Mrs Lamb I don’t believe Ruthenberg wants to “cut $2.9M from the Caboolture Hospital”.

    I believe neither of you.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  41. Looking from the outside into this By-elecation of Longman, it looks to be mouth watering to the people that follow politics in this country. If the LNP win it could be bye bye to Bill Shorten as leader of the Labor party. What I also find interesting is the high rate of informal voting at the last election. 8.53%. If just 1% of them valued their vote this time it could make all the difference.

  42. Susan Lamb’s team occupied Buchanan Park from early morning till late afternoon/night . Public attention will have upset the kerb crawling men who frequently are a feature of this park sitting and waiting solo in their utes just observing the scenary.

  43. High Informal Vote is just confusion between the old State System and Full Preferential system of Federal. I would expect this to come down this election due to QLD being aligned with Preference systems at State and Federal Level now.

  44. Susan Lamb seen door knocking in East Burpengary this morning.Courier Mail had 2 1/2 page spread on Longman today in summary predicting LNP gain. All of this based on a Reachtell survey. Spoke to a number of conservative minor voters tonight and they all think Ruthenberg will beat Lamb. My prediction ALP loss in by election which probably will be reversed at forthcoming general election. Therefore big Trev will be a short term victor.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

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