Tasmania 2014 Archive

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SA and TAS 2014 – campaigns conclude

Today we saw the conclusion of the count in Tasmania’s electorates, with all five electorates now finalised.

Results in Franklin and Bass were reasonably decisive, with Labor MPs David O’Byrne and Brian Wightman losing their seats to the Liberal Party.

In Lyons, former Labor MP David Llewellyn won back his seat, while the Greens’ Tim Morris lost his seat to the Liberal Party.

In the northern seat of Braddon, the ALP’s Brenton Best narrowly missed out for the final seat and the Greens’ Paul O’Halloran also lost his seat, resulting in an unprecedented four seats for the Liberal Party, a result not seen since the reduction in seats in 1998.

In the southern seat of Denison, there was no change to party representation, but the ALP’s second seat was left open with the retirement of Graeme Sturges, and all four non-incumbent Labor candidates were in with a chance. Madeleine Ogilvie narrowly won the seat ahead of Julian Amos.

This produced a final result of 15 Liberal, 7 Labor and 3 Greens. This is a solid majority for the Liberal Party, and also results in loss of parliamentary party status for the Greens.

In South Australia, the election night result of 23 Labor, 22 Liberal and 2 Greens held through late counting. After independent MP Bob Such was admitted to hospital for an indefinite period, independent MP Geoff Brock decided to support the ALP to continue in government, recognising that both independents would need to support the Liberal Party to achieve stable government.

This is the last word for the South Australian and Tasmanian elections for this blog. I’ll be covering the Western Australian Senate by-election next Saturday, April 5, and you can read the guide for the by-election (including sub-pages for all 15 electorates in Western Australia), and comment on any of the pages.

Beyond that, I’m close to finishing my maps for all 88 Victorian electorates for the November state election. On April 17, the final boundaries for the New Zealand general election will be released, and I will start work on that election guide, and I plan to have both ready to go well in advance of those elections.

While I work on these projects, you may notice less activity on the Tally Room, but be assured that I will be working hard in the background to get ready for the next campaign.

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TAS 2014 – results wrap

Tasmanian voters elected a Liberal government tonight, but a number of seats are still up for grabs.

In four out of five electorates, the Liberal Party has gained a third seat. In two additional electorates, another seat is yet to be decided. In some other cases, it is clear which party will win a seat but it is not clear which particular candidate will end. In Denison, the party balance will remain steady at 2 Labor, 2 Liberal and 1 Greens.

At the moment, the number of seats per party is:

  • LIB – 14-15
  • ALP – 6-8
  • GRN – 3-5
  • PUP – 0-1

I’ll run through each electorate in turn to explain the situation.

Read the rest of this entry »

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SA and TAS live

11:17pm – I’m going to leave the results there for the night. A wrap-up of the South Australian results will be up shortly, including some analysis of the key races and the Legislative Council, where it appears that the three incumbent crossbench MLCs have held their seats, with an outside chance for the Shooters and Fishers.

I’ll be back tomorrow with more analysis.

Until then, I leave you with this map of the new South Australian electoral map.

Results of the 2014 election in Adelaide. Labor seats in red, Liberal seats in blue, independent seats in yellow, undecided seats in white. Seats won by the Liberal Party off the ALP in dark blue.

Results of the 2014 election in Adelaide. Labor seats in red, Liberal seats in blue, independent seats in yellow, undecided seats in white. Seats won by the Liberal Party off the ALP in dark blue.

10:31pm – We’re getting an increasing amount of votes being counted in the Legislative Council, and the Greens vote has been climbing. Mark Parnell was previously switching between winning the final seat and missing out, but is now winning the ninth seat. That’s on almost 45% of the vote.

10:24pm – At 10:30 I’ll be posting my summary of the results from Tasmania. From then on this post will only deal with South Australia. In short, two seats in Tasmania remain up for grabs, and the Liberal Party holds 14 seats.

10:15pm – We’re starting to see substantive figures from South Australia’s Legislative Council. With 30% counted, Antony Green’s Senate calculator is predicting 4 Liberals, 4 Labor, 1 Family First, 1 Shooter and John Darley of the Xenophon team.

There’s a very close race between the fourth Labor candidate and the lead candidates for the Greens and the Shooters and Fishers for the final two seats.

10:00pm – On my latest figures, the ALP has 23 seats in South Australia. The Liberals have 21, and there are two independents. In Mitchell, the race is extremely close. If Labor wins, they will form majority government. If the Liberal Party wins, they will need both independents to form government.

9:37pm – I’m off writing up the results wrap for Tasmania, but just quickly on South Australia: Labor is now leading in 24 seats, which would give them a majority.

9:05pm – Updated seat count in South Australia:

  • ALP – 20, leading in three more.
  • LIB – 19, leading in three more
  • IND – 2

So if those six close seats split in that way, there will be a hung parliament.

8:44pm – The Greens vote in Braddon has fallen below the PUP vote, while the Labor vote has climbed to 1.4 quotas. The final Braddon seat is now a four-way race between a fourth Liberal, a second Labor, Greens or PUP.

8:42pm – Two of those marginal seats have moved into the Labor column for a topline figure of 21 Labor, 19 Liberal, 2 independent and 5 too close to call in South Australia. Those five close seats are:

  • Adelaide
  • Ashford
  • Bright
  • Mitchell
  • Wright

8:33pm – Let’s look at Tasmania again. A majority of votes have been counted in four out of five electorates. The ALP has lost a seat to the Liberal Party in Bass, and another in Franklin. In Braddon, the Liberal Party has won a third seat off the ALP, and the final seat is a race between a fourth Liberal, and the Greens and the Palmer United Party. In Lyons, the Liberal Party has gained a third seat. The ALP and Greens are competing for the final seat. The possible range now is:

  • LIB – 14-15
  • ALP – 6-7
  • GRN – 3-5
  • PUP – 0-1

8:21pm – I’ve done some estimates on the South Australian results so far, and I have got:

  • 19 – ALP
  • 18 – LIB
  • 2 – Others
  • 6 – Too close to call
  • 2 – No results so far

One of the two seats with no results is Stuart, which will be a safe Liberal seat. There’s a serious prospect of a hung parliament at this point.

8:13pm – Labor minister Grace Portolesi has lost her Adelaide seat of Hartley.

7:52pm – In Denison, the ALP has dropped back and the Greens have climbed, and it seems there is still a prospect of a second Green to win.

7:45pm – The ABC has projected that the ALP has lost its bid to gain back Adelaide, it’s best prospect of a gain in South Australia, despite Labor gaining a swing towards them.

7:38pm – We have almost one third of the vote in Lyons, and the Liberal Party has won a third seat. It looks likely that the Greens’ Tim Morris will win, but it’s still possible that the ALP’s David Llewellyn could win his seat back.

7:36pm – In Franklin, 12% has reported and the Liberal Party is over three quotas, and the Greens have a quota. With Lara Giddings not far short of a quota in her own right, David O’Byrne is left with only 0.4 quota, and is likely to lose his seat.

7:33pm – In Braddon, by contrast, over 15% of the vote is in and the Liberal Party are in the best position to win the last seat, which would give them four seats. The Liberal Party is on 3.7 quotas, compared to 0.54 for the Greens.

7:30pm – 16.5% of the vote has reported from Bass, and the prospects of a fourth Liberal seat have faded, with the Liberal vote down to 3.5 quotas, and the Greens vote over 0.8 quotas.

7:29pm – The Labor vote is rising in Denison and has almost reached two quotas, and thus the chances of the Greens to win two in Denison, and to overtake Labor, are almost dead.

7:20pm – Let’s take a look at South Australia. There is a swing to the Liberal Party and away from the ALP, but by much less than in Tasmania.

7:15pm – Just looking at current figures, I estimate the following range for each party in Tasmania:

  • LIB – 14-17
  • ALP – 5-6
  • GRN – 2-6
  • PUP – 0-2

Remember that these numbers are likely to shift against the Liberal Party.

7:10pm – My standard disclaimer of ‘it’s far too early’ applies, but in Franklin, Premier Lara Giddings is just ahead of David O’Byrne, and it’s certainly a possibility that Labor will only have enough votes to elect one MP. Worth watching.

7:08pm – Looking at the Tasmanian results, it appears the Liberal Party is in a very strong position to win, and could win as many as 17 seats.

6:53pm – Unfortunately the Tasmanian Electoral Commission doesn’t provide booth-level results on its website so we’re relying on the ABC to know how representative our sample is. The TEC does provide a media feed, but refused to provide it when I asked a few weeks ago. Apparently it’s only for ‘accredited media’.

6:46pm – Antony Green suggests that Braddon’s result, while favouring the Liberal Party so far, should result in the Liberal Party staying about 50% and thus winning three seats. That will be the first Liberal gain, of three needed.

6:43pm – We have small figures for Lyons and Braddon, and in both places the Liberal Party are well over three quotas, but these numbers are still small.

6:39pm –┬áSo far, a tiny proportion of the vote has been counted in Tasmania, and Labor’s vote is down by 15% and the Liberal vote up by almost 12%. The Greens vote is down by about 6%. Far too early to make assumptions.

6:30pm AEDT –┬áPolls have just closed in South Australia, and closed half an hour ago in Tasmania. I’ll be staying with you throughout the night covering election results in both states, as we expect to see ageing Labor governments lose to Liberal oppositions. I’ll be posting updates timestamped with Australian Eastern Daylight Time, which is the timezone where I reside, and the timezone in Tasmania. Sorry South Australians. Stick with us and we should have the first results soon.

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SA and TAS 2014: Prediction time

South Australia and Tasmania goes to the polls for their state elections on Saturday.

I’ll be covering the results from 6:30pm AEDT.

This is your opportunity to post your predictions for the election results.

You can also read more about each electorate, and join each electorate’s discussion thread, at the election guides:

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SA and Tas nominations finalised

Over the last week, nominations closed for the South Australian and Tasmanian state elections: South Australia on Monday and Tasmania on Thursday.

This is a follow-up to Monday’s post when I analysed the list of candidates I had collected at that time.

Candidates for all electorates are now listed on the seat profiles in ballot order. In the case of the South Australian Legislative Council, I have listed four candidates each for the major parties and the lead candidates for all other groups.

You can click through to Google spreadsheets for both state’s lower house candidates:

You can see the final breakdown of South Australian lower house candidates on Monday’s post.

In Tasmania, 126 candidates are running: 30 in Denison, 26 in Braddon, 24 in Franklin and Lyons and 22 in Bass.

Click through to read more about how many candidates each party is running, and their gender breakdown.

Read the rest of this entry »

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SA and TAS candidate updates

Nominations close later today for the South Australian state election, with nominations closing for the Tasmanian state election later this week.

I’ve produced lists of candidates announced so far for both state elections.

You can click through to Google spreadsheets for both state’s candidates:

Click through for charts and more analysis of the candidate data.

Update: The South Australian chart and spreadsheet are now completed. I’ll come back later in the week with more on the declaration of nominations. I’ve also updated the Tasmanian data with the inclusion of the final five Greens candidates.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Tasmania 2014 – Lyons

Lyons4-toppollingLyons covers the centre of Tasmania, and is the largest electorate in the state.

The electorate of Wilmot was renamed to Lyons at the 1986 election, which saw a 4-3 split in favour of the Liberal Party.

In 1989, Christine Milne won a seat in Lyons for the Greens, producing a 4-2-1 split in favour of the Liberal Party. This was maintained in 1992, and a 3-3-1 split in 1996.

The reduction in numbers in 1998 saw Milne, by then the Greens leader in the Assembly, lose her seat along with a Liberal MP, producing a 3-2 split for the ALP.

The Greens returned to Lyons in 2002, producing a 3-1-1 split that was repeated in 2006. In 2010, the ALP lost a seat to the Liberal Party.

The Liberal Party will require a large swing to gain a seat off either the ALP or the Greens – but Lyons saw a huge swing at the 2013 federal election which could indicate potential for such a large shift.

Lyons is represented by Rene Hidding (LIB), Tim Morris (GRN), Michael Polley (ALP), Mark Shelton (LIB) and Rebecca White (ALP).

Read more

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Tasmania to the polls: March 15

So after a week of speculation and rumour, Tasmanian Premier Lara Giddings acted today to move Tasmania towards the next state election.

Giddings met with the Governor this morning, and then proceeded to sack the two Greens ministers from her cabinet and announce an election date of March 15.

Parliament will be recalled to consider legislation in regard to the Tamar Valley pulp mill in late January, which has caused Greens MP Kim Booth to announce plans to move a motion of no confidence.

While Giddings now leads a government without necessarily commanding the support of a majority of the House of Assembly, the impending election makes that status largely irrelevant.

If a motion of no confidence was to pass before the planned date for the issuing of writs on February 19, then Giddings would have the choice of either advising the Governor to ask another member of Parliament to attempt to form a government, or to call an election. Since an election is already planned for March, it would not be unreasonable for the Governor to stick with the planned date of March 15.

March 15 is the closest date to the four-year anniversary of the 2010 election, but many election observers had hoped that Tasmania would vote on a different date, to avoid a clash with the South Australian state election. This will be the third successive election to be held on the same date as the South Australian election.

South Australian elections are fixed to be held on the third Saturday of March. While plans for fixed terms in Tasmania were floated prior to the last election, nothing has come about on this regard. The choice of March 15 keeps open the possibility that Tasmania will eventually fix its election date to the same date as South Australia.

Giddings’ decision to drop the Greens from the ministry is unexpected, but rings hollow so close to the election. After governing with minimal discord in an effective coalition since 2010, she has decided to make a change at a point when her government has run out of time. Giddings has claimed that she would not form a government in the future which would include Greens ministers, but such promises have been made before and could well be forgotten if the numbers require Greens’ support.

The most likely outcome remains the Liberal Party gaining the three seats they need to form a majority, with their best chances being in Bass, Braddon and Lyons. Having said that, there remains the possibility of the Liberal Party failing to win a majority, at which point one of the two major parties will need Greens’ support to form government.

The Tally Room guide covers all five electorates, and conversations have started about the campaigns in each electorate.

Read the Tally Room guide to the Tasmanian election.

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Tasmania 2014 – Franklin

Franklin1-LIBFranklin covers southern Tasmania, including the eastern suburbs of Hobart and the Huon Valley.

The seat produced a result of 3-2 in favour of the ALP at the 1998 election. In 2002, the Liberal Party lost one of their seats to the Greens, and the 3-1-1 split was repeated in 2006.

In 2010, the ALP lost their third seat to the Liberal Party.

The electorate is home to all three party leaders: Lara Giddings, Will Hodgman and Nick McKim. The electorate is also represented by the ALP’s David O’Byrne and Liberal MP Jacquie Petrusma.

Read more

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Tasmania 2014 – Denison

Denison1-ALPDenison is the most densely-populated and geographically smallest electorate, covering most of the Hobart urban area.

Denison is the only electorate to have elected as a Greens MP since the party was first formed. The seventh seat was won by the Democrats’ Norm Sanders in 1980 and again in 1982, and when he resigned he was replaced by Bob Brown. He was succeeded by another Greens leader, Peg Putt, and then by Cassy O’Connor, now a minister in the government.

Along with a single Greens seat, Denison elected three Labor MPs and three Liberal MPs from 1986 until 1998, when the reduction in seats saw Labor and Liberal each lose a seat.

The 2002 election was the first election since 1982 where one of the major parties managed to win a majority in Denison, with the ALP winning a 3-1-1 split. This was maintained in 2006, and the balance was restored in 2010 when the ALP lost a seat to the Liberal Party.

As one of the Greens’ strongest seats, and a relatively strong electorate for Labor, the Liberal Party will find it harder to gain a seat in Denison.

Denison is represented by sons of former premiers Scott Bacon (ALP) and Matthew Groom (LIB), along with Greens minister Cassy O’Connor, Liberal MP Elise Archer, and Labor MP Graeme Sturges.

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