Pumicestone – QLD 2020

LNP 0.8%

Incumbent MP
Simone Wilson, since 2017.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Pumicestone covers parts of Moreton Bay LGA stretching from Bribie Island to Moodlu.

History
The seat of Pumicestone has existed since 2001. The seat was won in 2001 by Carryn Sullivan, who was re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

In 2012, Sullivan was defeated by LNP candidate Lisa France. France lost to Labor’s Rick Williams in 2015. Williams was disendorsed by Labor shortly before the 2017 state election, and Pumicestone was won by the LNP’s Simone Wilson.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal National MP Simone Wilson is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Pumicestone is a very marginal seat and could go either way.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Michael Hoogwaerts Labor 10,50635.6-3.6
Simone Wilson Liberal National 8,82529.9-14.6
Greg FaheyOne Nation6,89423.3+23.3
Tony Longland Greens 1,4645.0-0.6
Rick WilliamsIndependent1,3474.6+4.6
Jason BurgessIndependent4991.7+1.7
Informal1,2874.2

2017 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Simone Wilson Liberal National15,01550.8+0.7
Michael Hoogwaerts Labor 14,52049.2-0.7

Booth breakdown

Booths in Pumicestone have been divided into three areas: central, west and Bribie Island.

The LNP won slim 51.2% majorities on Bribie Island and the centre of the seat. Labor won a large 57% majority in the west. The LNP also won 54% in the pre-poll vote.

One Nation came third, with a primary vote of 20% on Bribie Island and over 25% in the centre and west.

Voter groupON primLNP 2PPTotal votes% of votes
Bribie Island20.051.28,20427.8
West25.742.95,14717.4
Central25.251.24,47215.1
Pre-poll23.554.07,07724.0
Other votes24.653.74,63515.7

Election results in Pumicestone at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.

16 COMMENTS

  1. This is one of the seats Labor will need to gain to make up for losses in the regions. I think it will happen as it’s close enough to Brisbane and far enough from tourism for Labor’s handling of Covid and border closures to boost them here.

    ALP gain

  2. Speaking to family and those I know in the area, it does seem line-ball this one (those I know on Bribie solidly Liberal, those on mainland are solidly Labor). I concur with @John that the placing of this electorate in regards to the Covid effect, the small margin and being an open seat bring this into play.

    Prediction (August 2020): TOSS-UP – Possible ALP Gain

    In fact with all my original August predictions, this is the only seat I can see as an ALP Gain. Campaigning and watching some other close seats might change that.

  3. Simone Wilson has been a solid performer and hopefully her efforts can flow through to the new LNP candidate.

  4. Why is Wilson going so soon? Resigning after one term isn’t common, and the LNP aren’t gonna love her for doing it in one of their most marginal seats.

  5. Bribie being the normal LNP stroghold but elderly might make it swing towards Labor at this election. I have this as an ALP gain.

  6. Labor is contesting this seat very heavily. Both candidates have campaign offices on the main street of Bellara (on Bribie). (Simone Wilson also has an electorate office there).
    I was there about a month ago – Labor had an old bus and a boxtruck with campaign decals parked off the main street. Interesting strategy.

    I think that as restrictions on corflute signage increase both majors are moving to vehicle wrap strategies for pre-election-period campaigning.

  7. Labor seemingly really want Ali King in parliament – they’ve thrown her at quite a few different seats now! Interesting if this one flips and turns out to be the one that keeps Labor in gov.

  8. I have worked booths on Bribie a number of times for DLP, KAP or Country Party and it is one of the most overtly Liberal seat I have experienced. 10% of them turned up to In 2016 with Liberal HTV. This was one of the most unpleasant booths I have worked due to the behaviour of Glen Lazarus supporters. Talking to one of the electoral commission staff a few years later he agreed with me. Inexperience on working a polling booth leads to an inability to recognise that all party volunteers have more in common with each other than they have with voters. At Bribie Orchid Society even the One Nation booth captain was on good terms with ALP LNP, KAP, DLP, Country Party and FF volunteers. FF lady had brought everyone morning tea until she left because of fear of Lazarus’s Football mates.
    My prediction Bribie More strongly LNP than last election and mainland more pro government Than last time.

  9. Maybe I’m missing something but I don’t see how a seat with more than 20% ON primary vote at the last election could possibly be a Labor gain. Those preferences are much more likely to flow Liberal this time around. Have there been significant demographic changes recently? Younger voters moving back in with mum and dad because of COVID? I only see LNP increasing their margin here.

  10. Furtive Lawngnome yes there has been a slight change in the demographics with once-rural areas like Elimbah becoming more urbanized. Seems to be moving towards being a liberal stronghold and it would be hard for the government to gain this one.

  11. Ooohh @FtB, interesting prediction 🙂

    When I heard Simone Wilson was retiring after 1 term, I was concerned but I think her quality replacement can retain.

  12. @BJA I just don’t see how Labor does any better this time than last and they couldn’t win it then. Any flow back from PHON this time surely mostly goes to the LNP’s primary? PHON prefs overwhelmingly favoured LNP last time. You gotta do well on Bribie to win this seat.

  13. @FtB
    Yes, my thoughts are something like that – the Labor candidate last time was a Bribie High teacher, which may have attracted some vote on the Island but this time its not a local.

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