LNP 9.1%
Incumbent MP
Ted Sorensen, since 2009.
Geography
Central Queensland. Hervey Bay covers Fraser Island and areas on the eastern shore of Hervey Bay, including Point Vernon, Urraween, Pialba, Scarness, Torquay and Urangan.
History
The seat of Hervey Bay has existed since 1992. The seat was dominated by Labor until 2009 (barring One Nation’s win in 1998) but has been held by the LNP since then.
The seat was first won in 1992 by the ALP’s Bill Nunn. He had previously won the seat of Isis off the National Party in 1989.
Nunn was re-elected in 1992 and 1995 before losing in 1998 to One Nation’s David Dalgleish. Dalgleish left One Nation in 1999 to help form the City Country Alliance.
In 2001, Dalgleish was defeated by the ALP’s Andrew McNamara. McNamara was re-elected in 2004 and 2006, but was defeated in 2009 by former Hervey Bay mayor Ted Sorensen, running for the LNP. Sorensen was re-elected in 2012, 2015 and 2017.
Candidates
- Steve Coleman (Liberal National)
- Damian Huxham (One Nation)
- Adrian Tantari (Labor)
- Amy Byrnes (Animal Justice)
- Sonja Gerdsen (Greens)
- Stuart Taylor (Independent)
Assessment
Hervey Bay is a safe LNP seat.
2017 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ted Sorensen | Liberal National | 12,049 | 37.7 | -10.1 |
| Adrian Tantari | Labor | 9,282 | 29.1 | -2.6 |
| Damian Huxham | One Nation | 8,059 | 25.2 | +25.2 |
| Jenni Cameron | Greens | 1,619 | 5.1 | +1.4 |
| Jannean Dean | Independent | 937 | 2.9 | -0.9 |
| Informal | 1,345 | 4.0 |
2017 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Ted Sorensen | Liberal National | 18,880 | 59.1 | +2.6 |
| Adrian Tantari | Labor | 13,066 | 40.9 | -2.6 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Hervey Bay have been divided into three areas: north-east, north-west and south.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 55.6% in the north-west to 62.3% in the south.
One Nation came third on the primary vote, with about 24% in the north-east and north-west and 36% in the south.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| North-West | 24.0 | 55.6 | 8,351 | 26.1 |
| North-East | 23.7 | 55.9 | 5,025 | 15.7 |
| South | 35.6 | 62.3 | 763 | 2.4 |
| Pre-poll | 27.0 | 61.6 | 12,377 | 38.7 |
| Other votes | 23.0 | 61.1 | 5,430 | 17.0 |
Election results in Hervey Bay at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.
Ted served a long time for this community and there’s a huge personal vote with him, but that being said, he really did make this a LNP seat and can’t see it changing. And being one of a few seats the ALP don’t have a candidate in, speaks volumes for that. I still think the ONP vote peaked last election, but their candidate has been doing the rounds and will see this as a LNP vs ONP seat.
Prediction (August 2020): LNP Retain
Unless Labor is making a surprise announcement of the local mayor George Seymour as the candidate the LNP retain.Seymour runs and he wins it.
Note former local councillor Stuart Taylor is running as an independent
I read in the Australian there was a battle going behind the scenes for pre-selection between 2017 Hervey Bay state Labor candidate Adrian Tantari and federal Labor candidate for Wide Bay Jason Scanes. But that was three weeks ago and since then there still has been no announcement of a Labor candidate for Hervey Bay. I presume the longer the silence goes on the more its likely the LNP are the favorites to win this seat. This is despite popular former mayor and LNP incumbent Ted Sorenson not recontesting.
I heard a rumor popular current Fraser Coast mayor George Seymour had been considered a potential candidate for Labor. But I think he stated in the media he has no plans for running a month ago.
Labor’s really dragging their feet in Hervey Bay. Factional games at play.
I wonder if this will cost them and they will end up finishing third? Either way it won’t matter, the LNP will hold this seat quite comfortably.
Labor has finally endorsed Adrian Tantari to run again. 5.5 weeks out from the election.
Poor strategy.
Prediction: LNP Retain
LNP is very nervous about this seat due to the high number of retirees who like the Covid response coupled with a retiring MP. Touriam numbers are up too as lots of SEQ holidayed here during COVID.
All that said.LNP retain on a much smaller majority.
Agree with everything QO said here but my final prediction here is still LNP hold but not by a lot.
LNP retain but margin down
surprise of evening ….. looks like ALP win…… look at history all parties tend to keep mps
The nervousness I mentioned was for good reason.