NAT 11.7% vs IND
Incumbent MP
Russell Turner, since 1996.
Geography
Central West NSW. The seat covers all of the City of Orange and Wellington Council, and parts of Cabonne Shire and Mid-Western Regional Council. A majority of the seat’s population lie in Orange, and the other major towns are Wellington and Mudgee.
History
The seat of Orange has existed in the Legislative Assembly since 1859, with the exception of three elections in the 1920s. The seat was a single-member district up to 1880, then a two-member district from 1880 to 1894.
The seat has been a single-member district since 1894. The seat has been held by the Country/National Party since 1947.
Orange was held from 1941 to 1947 by the ALP’s Robert O’Halloran. He had been one of the members for the district of Eastern Suburbs from 1920 to 1927, but he fell out with Labor leader and Premier Jack Lang, and at the 1927 election he was denied preselection for any of the new single-member districts that replaced Eastern Suburbs.
He held Orange from 1941 to 1947, when he lost to the Country Party’s Charles Cutler.
Cutler was elected Country Party deputy leader in 1958 and leader in 1959. He held that role until his retirement in 1975. He also served as Deputy Premier in the Coalition government from 1965 to 1975.
Cutler’s retirement in 1975 caused a by-election in early 1976. The by-election was won by National Country Party candidate Garry West. He served as a minister in the Coalition government from 1988 to 1995. Following the government’s defeat, he resigned from Parliament in early 1996.
The 1996 by-election was won by Russell Turner, also of the National Party. Turner was re-elected in 1999, 2003 and 2007.
Candidates
- Fiona Rossiter (Family First)
- Kevin Duffy (Labor)
- Andrew Gee (Nationals)
- Stephen Nugent (Greens)
- John Davis (Independent)
Political situation
Orange is reasonably safe for the Nationals. Even against a serious independent, the Nationals should be able to hold on without too much trouble.
2007 result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Russell Turner | NAT | 22,034 | 50.6 | +7.3 |
| John Davis | IND | 11,303 | 23.6 | +23.6 |
| Kevin Duffy | ALP | 8,937 | 20.5 | -13.2 |
| Jeremy Buckingham | GRN | 2,295 | 5.3 | +0.4 |
2007 two-candidate-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Russell Turner | NAT | 23,769 | 61.7 | |
| John Davis | IND | 14,766 | 38.3 |
Booth breakdown
Booths in Orange have been divided into four areas based on local government areas, namely Orange, Mudgee, Wellington and Cabonne. The Mudgee area covers Mid-Western Regional Council, the other three are named after the local government area. A large proportion of the seat’s population lies in the City of Orange.
The National Party’s majority over the independent candidate varied from 69% in Cabonne to 53.8% in Wellington. The ALP’s primary vote varied from 23% in Mudgee to under 20% in Orange.
| Voter group | ALP % | NAT 2CP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Orange | 19.7 | 63.5 | 18,449 | 42.3 |
| Mudgee | 23.1 | 56.6 | 8,008 | 18.4 |
| Wellington | 21.2 | 53.8 | 3,905 | 9.0 |
| Cabonne | 20.0 | 69.1 | 3,851 | 8.8 |
| Other votes | 19.9 | 62.6 | 9,356 | 21.5 |
The Greens have announced that Stephen Nugent will be their candidate. The same Central Western Daily story also reports speculation that two local councillors may run.
Now it’s a three-horse race — Orange Councillor Fiona Rossiter, who unsuccessfully sought the Nationals’ preselection, is running for Family First.
My prediction: National retain, final margin over the Labor party at least 20%.
After a week or so of publicly calling for Andrew Gee to commit to funding the Macquarie River pipeline project, John Davis has announced he is running again as an independent.
Interesting – half the swing here went to Family First, who got 6.7%. They got the donkey vote, but that’s still pretty good for the lesser religious party in NSW (there wasn’t a CDP candidate here, either). If Davis had bothered to campaign for longer, he would’ve probably come second.