About Author: Ben Raue

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http://www.tallyroom.com.au/
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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.

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Posts by Ben Raue

0

Bennelong – different swings but no big change

There wasn’t much suspense in last night’s by-election results – it was clear early on that Labor wasn’t coming close to the swing they needed to win the seat. There was a sizeable swing (approximately 5.7% after preferences) which dented the Liberal margin. If this swing was repeated at an election the current government would easily lose its majority, but it would be dangerous to extrapolate this result to a general election. Federal polling has suggested that Labor is up by between 2% and 5%, so the by-election isn’t far outside of this range.

The most interesting part of the results was the geographical variation. My pre-election guide divided the electorate into five areas, and there was a big difference in the swings between these areas:

Area% of 2016 voteALP %LIB %ALP 2PP %LIB 2PP %ALP 2PP swing
Eastwood87.5734.5839.1147.3152.697.42
Epping85.9031.2940.6844.2555.756.07
Gladesville98.4929.0547.4439.9560.053.22
Ryde93.7231.5543.3343.2756.732.75
West Ryde101.8335.9936.8249.2450.763.76
Pre-poll126.4136.5340.2348.0451.964.46
Other votes0.000.000.000.000.000.00

The swings were substantially larger in Eastwood and Epping, in the north-western corner of the seat. This is very obvious when these swings are plotted on a map (you can also toggle to see the two-party-preferred total).

These areas have the largest Chinese and Korean populations in the seat. There was a lot of attention paid to that community in the campaign, and a possible shift of support from Liberal to Labor in that community. I’m not going to say that this is the reason for the larger swing, but it’s certainly consistent with that theory.

This is the last election for 2017, but I will be back next week with some small data projects. I’m still seeking donors to support this website in 2018, with a target of 50 donors by the end of this month. If you want to sign up please go to Patreon to sign up.

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4

Bennelong by-election live

CandidatePartyPrimaryPrimary %Swing2PP votes2PP %2PP Swing
Tony RobinsonLiberty Alliance6230.860.86
Wesley FolitarikSustainable Australia8271.141.14
James JanssonScience Party9021.251.25
John AlexanderLiberal31,90144.08-9.233919554.16-5.66
Kristina KeneallyLabor26,29036.335.973317245.845.66
James PlatterPeople’s Party1490.210.21
Justin AlickThe Greens5,0006.91-2.40
Anthony ZiebellAffordable Housing6220.860.86
Anthony FelsNon-Custodial Parents1160.160.16
Joram RichaConservatives3,2514.494.49
Gui CaoChristian Democratic2,2993.18-3.83
Chris GoldingAustralian Progressives3860.530.53

11:20 – If you found this analysis useful, please consider signing up as a patron of this website. I’m running a fundraiser throughout December, and I’m hoping for 50 patrons to let me expand the time I spend on this website in 2018.

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11:07 – Last contribution for tonight is this map of the election results by booth. It shows a very clear difference in terms of the swing to Labor. There were swings of over 5% across the Eastwood and Epping area, with much smaller swings in the Ryde area. I’ll return tomorrow with a sum-up post.

9:29 – Just returned after a bit of a break. We now have all of the ordinary booths and most of the local pre-poll centres. The result is very clear – the Liberal Party’s margin has been reduced from 9.7% to around 4.2%, but John Alexander will hold on comfortably. The swing was clearly the biggest in Eastwood and Epping – the most multicultural parts of the seat. Others will undoubtedly do more in-depth analysis of this question in coming days, but it’s certainly plausible that the Liberal Party was harder-hit with the Chinese and Korean communities.

8:12 – Things have slowed down, although there’s still a bunch of booths yet to come. One thing worth noting is that the swing against the Libs is much bigger on the primary vote than after preferences. Part of this is probably due to the almost 5% of the vote going to the Conservatives. This has meant that quite a lot of those votes lost by the Liberal Party as primary votes were won back as preferences, and has increased the Liberal share of minor candidate preferences.

7:56 – This race is definitely over. Now that we have correct numbers, we can see that the biggest swing to Labor happened in Eastwood and Ryde, with the smallest swing in West Ryde.

7:51 – Sorry, I think I had a data error with the sub-area swings. Should be fixed now, but the swings are much more variable and not so clear-cut.

7:47 – The swing in Gladesville has fallen back into line with the rest of the seat. Not sure what happened there.

7:39 – I think that might have been Macquarie Park which increased the swing over 5%.

7:36 – Another booth has increased the swing to over 5%. Maybe a bit early to call this by-election on small booths, but Labor still has a long way to go.

7:33 – I should note that my two-party-preferred result is the actual figure now, not a projected figure. The swing is based on projections. This explains why the AEC has Alexander on 56.05% while I have him on 57.17%, but with the same swing. The numbers are the same.

7:28 – The Carlingford booth had an 11.7% 2PP swing to Labor, which has increased the overall 2PP swing to 3.7%. Still a long way short of what is needed.

7:20 – We have five booths reporting preferences, and only one of them shows a swing of more than 5% to the ALP. While the swing is sizeable, it does appear that the Liberals are likely to win.

7:18 – We now have nine primary vote booths, and there has been a sizeable drop in the Liberal vote, but right now it doesn’t look like enough to turf out Alexander – the Labor vote is up 5.1%, while the Liberal vote is down 8.8%.

7:08 –  The first booths are Marsfield and Ryde. There’s an 11.6% swing to Labor on primary votes in Marsfield and 4% in Ryde.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Bennelong by-election. I’ll be covering this by-election live tonight, hopefully including some projections and geographic breakdowns (although I’m still finishing them off). We should start having results between 6:30 and 7pm.

Results by sub-area

Area% of 2016 voteALP %LIB %ALP 2PP %LIB 2PP %ALP 2PP swing
Eastwood87.5734.5839.1147.3152.697.42
Epping85.9031.2940.6844.2555.756.07
Gladesville98.4929.0547.4439.9560.053.22
Other votes0.000.000.000.000.000.00
Pre-poll126.4136.5340.2348.0451.964.46
Ryde93.7231.5543.3343.2756.732.75
West Ryde101.8335.9936.8249.2450.763.76
1

Queensland election dataset – pre-poll voting keeps growing

I’ve just finished pulling together all of the data from the recent Queensland state election and have added it to my data repository.

This dataset includes:

  • List of candidates
  • List of electorates, with data on turnout and formality
  • List of polling places, including full address and latitude/longitude
  • Primary vote by polling place
  • Primary vote by electorate
  • Two-candidate-preferred by electorate

The only thing I couldn’t track down was the two-candidate-preferred vote by polling place. The ECQ has previously not made this data available, although they have now published this data by PDF for the last three elections. I plan to turn those PDFs for 2009 and 2012 into accessible spreadsheets at some point, and I’ll revisit this dataset to add the 2PP figures if the ECQ eventually publish them (if you find them on some dark corner of the ECQ website, please let me know).

I now have this data published for two successive Queensland state elections. The data includes a field which categorises each polling place according to vote type. You can use this to count up how many votes were cast as ordinary votes, pre-poll votes or as other votes.

There’s been a long-term trend of more people choosing to vote early. I previously wrote about this in the context of NSW state elections, after pre-poll made up more than 14% of votes at the 2015 state election. I haven’t found any old posts about this, but the same trend is clear in federal elections – well over 1 million Australians voted early in 2016.

This data can show you that over 26% of votes at the 2017 Queensland state election were cast as pre-poll votes, up from 19.6% in 2015.

Vote type20152017
Ordinary votes62.6%56.4%
Pre-poll19.6%26.2%
Other votes (incl. postal)17.7%17.4%

I’d love to also add in the same figures for the 2009 and 2012 elections, but first I’ll need to add these datasets to the data repository. You could help expedite this work by donating to this website.

2

Tasmanian election 2018 – read the guide

The Tasmanian election is due to be held by May 2018 – and if the last three elections are any guide, the election will likely be held in March.

In addition to the South Australian guide posted on Monday, I’ve now completed a similar guide for the five Tasmanian state electorates.

Here are the links to the five electorate guides:

If you find these guides useful, I’d appreciate if you chose to become a regular donor or give a one-off donation.

5

Nick Xenophon’s vote – does it hit Labor or Liberal harder?

Last week, I posted data showing the Nick Xenophon Team vote at the 2016 Senate election broken down by state electorate.

In the process of completing my guide to the South Australian state election, I noticed the trend in terms of which seats popped up with very high NXT votes. It appeared that numerous safe Liberal seats ranked highly in terms of NXT vote, while the safer Labor seats ranked more lowly.

It’s undoubtedly true that Xenophon takes votes from all parties – when his vote has been particularly high, both major parties have suffered big hits. But the vote does tend to be higher in electorates normally considered ‘safe Liberal’.

We saw this clearly at the 2016 federal election – the NXT vote was highest in Mayo, Barker and Grey, all places where the Liberal Party would normally walk all over Labor in a head-to-head fight.

And when I compared the 2016 NXT Senate data to the Liberal two-party-preferred vote in each new state seat, there is a trend where the NXT vote is higher in stronger Liberal seats.

It’s not a perfect trend, but the correlation is around 0.558.

So what does this suggest about the impact that Nick Xenophon’s SA Best could have on the next election?

We obviously don’t know how highly the party will poll – they have only announced a handful of candidates, so it’s conceivable they won’t run a full ticket. But it seems more likely that a large vote for SA Best will hit hardest in Liberal seats, particularly in seats where the Liberal Party would normally not need to campaign hard. In contrast, the safer Labor seats are likely to stay safe, unless SA Best polls particularly strongly.

0

Launching the guide to SA 2018

As we near the conclusion of 2017’s election season, with the Bennelong by-election this weekend, I have finished my first major guide for 2018: for the South Australian state election on March 17.

I have completed seat guides for all 47 electorates, as well as a guide to the Legislative Council and summaries of the key seats and the redistribution.

You can use the following pages to find your way to each seat’s profile, or click through on the following map.

If you find this guide useful, you can choose to sign up as a monthly patron to maintain and expand this website’s coverage.

2

One Nation 2016 vote – how well did it predict 2017?

On Tuesday, I published estimates of the Senate vote at the 2016 federal election for the Nick Xenophon Team, broken down by South Australian state electorates.

While writing that article, I became curious about whether the similar dataset (built by Alex Jago) for One Nation in Queensland had done a good job of predicting the One Nation vote at the 2017 state election – we’d used the data regularly before the election, but after 6pm on election night we threw it out.

Well here is a chart comparing the 2016 Senate vote for One Nation (after distribution of minor preferences) to the party’s primary vote in the recent state election, in the 61 seats where One Nation stood candidates.

The trend is pretty strong – while the vote at the state election was slightly higher, it did not vary tremendously from the trend.

The correlation between these two datasets is 0.796 – in other words, the two datasets correlate by about 80%. It’s not a perfect correlation, but a very strong trend.

The biggest exception was in party leader Steve Dickson’s seat of Buderim. One Nation polled 12.7% at the 2016 election, but managed 28.85% at the recent state election. This makes sense – the party had an incumbent MP and put a lot more effort into that seat. Apart from that seat, the ratio was not more than 2:1 in any other seat.

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SA election – how do we predict Nick Xenophon’s vote?

Thanks to everyone who signed up to my Patreon after my post yesterday morning. I’ve almost achieved my basic goal of 20 patrons to keep the website running, but I’d like to reach the stretch goal of 30 patrons to expand the reach of the website in 2018. Thanks to everyone who can chip in!

The recent Queensland election produced a dilemma for us electoral analysts: polls suggested One Nation would perform strongly, but the party had no recent history of contesting seats in most of Queensland at state elections.

We relied instead on the results of the 2016 federal Senate election, broken down by Queensland state electorate. This work was conducted by Alex Jago, who used data on which voters from each block voted at each polling place. He also used the entire preference dataset to distribute votes cast for minor candidates between Labor, the LNP, One Nation and the Greens.

The South Australian election has produced a similar dilemma. Nick Xenophon’s SA Best party has never contested a South Australian state election. Nick Xenophon previously ran for the state upper house in 1997 and 2006, polling quite highly in 2006, before running for the Senate with strong results at the 2007, 2013 and 2016 federal elections.

Thankfully Alex Jago performed a similar task for South Australia, distributing votes at a SA1 level between Labor, Liberal and the Nick Xenophon Team. He then gave it to me and I matched those SA1s to South Australian state electorates, to allow me to produce an estimate of the vote for the three biggest parties in each state seat. You can view this data here.

NXT polled well everywhere – the lowest NXT vote was 21.7% in Croydon, and the highest was 38.5% in Heysen. But there is a trend. The NXT vote was highest in the seats in the Adelaide Hills and to the south of Adelaide, as well as those in the north of the state, and it was lowest in centre and northern Adelaide.

2

Support the Tally Room on Patreon

I’ve been running this website now for just over nine years, and in that time I’ve put in thousands of hours of work, in particular making election guides and electoral boundary maps, more recently expanding into producing clean election results datasets free for use.

A handful of much-appreciated readers have been donating a small monthly amount for a while now, but it’s only just enough to cover the financial cost of running the web server.

I’ve explained on my Patreon page what I’d like to do with any additional donations – my goal is to have twenty regular donors giving every month to keep up my current work, but I’ve also set some stretch goals that would allow me to spend more time on the website and get more stuff done. I’m planning to do regular updates about my ongoing work to those who sign up as patrons.

My plan is to see how many patrons sign up in the month of December, and then use that to plan my work for 2018.

You can become a patron by clicking this button:

Become a Patron!

And below the fold you can read my spiel from the Patreon page.

Read the rest of this entry »

2

New England by-election live

7:55 – I won’t bother making any more updates now – once we have most of the results in I’ll put together a booth breakdown and post that.

7:22 – No evidence so far that the voters of New England have judged Joyce harshly for his citizenship bungle. I suspect that voters see the by-election as unnecessary, and possibly have sympathy for him. This fits with the 1996 Lindsay by-election, when Jackie Kelly gained a substantial swing after section 44 threw her out.

6:45 – So far the results don’t look very interesting. With four booths reporting, Barnaby Joyce is on 69.6% of the primary vote.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in New England. I’ll be live blogging the results here as they come in.