About Author: Ben Raue

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http://www.tallyroom.com.au/
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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.

Posts by Ben Raue

7

Wagga Wagga – results wash-up

Last night’s result was extremely bad for the Liberal Party. We won’t know who has won for sure for a few days or even a week, but it looks most likely that independent candidate Joe McGirr has won, and Labor probably has the next best shot at winning.

I’ve got a piece going up in the Guardian today analysing the broader significance of the result, but I’d just quickly note that this result follows up on large double-digit swings from the Nationals to the Shooters at by-elections in Orange, Cootamundra and Murray, which saw one of those seats fall. We have to assume that the coalition is on track for a big thumping in its rural heartland in March.

In this post I want to cover what the voting patterns were (including a map and a booth breakdown) and then how the preferences could shake out.

Read the rest of this entry »

2

Wagga Wagga by-election live

Primary votes

CandidateVotes%Swing
Seb McDonagh (SFF)445610.010.0
Julia Ham (LIB)1120725.1-28.5
Joe McGirr (IND)1145025.625.6
Ray Goodlass (GRN)12852.9-1.8
Tom Arentz (CDP)8531.9-0.4
Paul Funnell (IND)483410.80.9
Dan Hayes (ALP)1064223.8-4.7

Two-party-preferred votes

CandidateVotes%Swing
Julia Ham (LIB)1118547.7-14.8
Dan Hayes (ALP)1227052.314.8
Exhausted6500

12:11 – Okay, not long ago we got the primary votes for the Wagga Wagga pre-poll centre. Following this point the NSWEC took down the two-party-preferred count, presumably because they’ll be running a Liberal vs McGirr 2CP count. While there is no guarantee that Labor couldn’t jump from third into second on minor candidate preferences, that 2CP count would give us a good sense of who will win. It seems likely McGirr will win that count.

That’s it for tonight, I’ll return tomorrow with some maps and analysis.

11:00 – If you found this work useful, please consider signing up as a donor on Patreon. It helps fund the work I do on this website as well as the podcast, which will cover this result in our next episode.

10:21 – We’re just waiting for one more booth tonight – Antony Green estimates there’s 12,000 votes at the Wagga pre-poll centre, and we should see these votes tonight. They’ll give us a much better idea of the result.

9:09 – We now have 2748 pre-poll votes reported for both primary and two-party-preferred votes. I expect more pre-poll votes, whereas my projection model compares these votes to the total pre-poll vote from 2015, so I’ve turned off the projections. The pre-poll swings so far have been slightly less bad for the Liberal Party than the election-day votes.

8:52 – We now have all ordinary election-day primary votes and are close to having two-party-preferred votes from all of the same booths (just two outstanding). Labor has taken a small but clear lead on the two-party-preferred vote, but that doesn’t tell us anything about how preferences would flow in a McGirr vs Liberal or McGirr vs Labor count.

8:41 – Labor has now taken a narrow lead on the 2PP count, but McGirr remains the favourite to win. Let’s wait for the pre-poll and iVotes before making any further conclusions about McGirr’s chances.

8:25 – If Labor were to come third and the final count was a Liberal vs McGirr race, it’s hard to see McGirr losing. He will be attracting Labor, Greens, Shooters and Funnell preferences, with only the CDP (on 1.9%) favouring the Liberal candidate.

8:11 – The two-party-preferred count remains close with the Liberal Party leading, but it seems pointless since McGirr seems set to make the top two.

7:58 – Nick Casmirri has pointed me to the ABC Elections website which includes the how-to-votes. Independent Paul Funnell has directed preferences to Joe McGirr. The Shooters have directed preferences to Labor, then McGirr, with the Liberal Party last. This would suggest that the Liberals are likely to stay in third place with most preferences splitting between Labor and McGirr, and then Liberal preferences will decide the outcome. The Liberal how-to-vote advises a ‘just vote 1’, but you’d assume they would favour McGirr, who has to be considered the favourite now.

7:53 – And the Liberals have now fallen into third. If the Liberals stay in third, I would presume that McGirr would do better than Labor from Shooters/Liberal preferences, but it won’t get resolved tonight.

7:47 – Alright we now have a lot more of the vote, including a lot of votes from urban Wagga Wagga, and the Liberal Party is in serious danger of falling into third place. The anti-Liberal primary vote swing is now over 30%, while the swing to Labor on the 2PP vote is up to 12.1%, which is almost enough for Labor to win. It appears that urban Wagga Wagga has swung particularly severely against the Liberal Party, with only 21% of the vote in these booths so far.

7:21 – We now have a lot more votes, and it’s clear that the Liberal Party will poll under 30%, and quite possibly falling behind McGirr on the primary vote. We have five booths reporting 2PP figures, and Labor is managing a swing of only 8% which isn’t close to enough to win, so it seems like the Liberal Party will face more danger if McGirr can make it to the top two.

7:04 – I’ll be away for a minute, but we’ve just got our third 3PP booth, suggesting that Labor isn’t doing well enough to win if they end up facing off against the Liberals, but the primary vote swing against the Liberals remains around 28.7%, which is brutal. We still have nothing at all from urban Wagga Wagga.

7:00 – You think you’ve seen the worst anti-Liberal swings and then your expectations are exceeded. There’s a 36% primary vote swing against the Liberal Party at Lockhart Central. We still have no results from urban Wagga.

6:58 – The Liberal primary vote is looking a bit better after Pleasant Hills and Collingullie, where they only suffered swings around 21%, so they are currently projected to top the primary vote, but not much ahead of Labor or McGirr.

6:55 – Pleasant Hills looked better for the Liberal Party on the 2PP, which has pushed the 2PP swing to Labor under 10%. Again, samples are too small.

6:52 – 21% swing against the Liberal Party at Pleasant Hills, which is their best result so far. Worth noting that we have no results from the Wagga Wagga urban area yet.

6:48 – Booth #3 is Uranquinty. The Liberal primary vote dropped from 53.3% to 20.6% – a swing of over 30%. Joe McGirr polled almost 30%.

6:46 – We now have a two-party-preferred count from Talbingo and Labor has won the booth narrowly – 50 votes to 48, with 22 votes exhausting. This translates into a 15% swing, which would translate into a Labor win if this applied to the whole electorate (which you shouldn’t do). Of course we don’t know who will make the top two – if McGirr comes in the top two the 2PP count won’t matter.

6:40 – The second booth – another small one – is Yerong Creek. We’ve seen another swing of over 28%, with McGirr polling 26.5%. Far too early to say whether McGirr or Labor’s Hayes is a contender but the Liberals are doing very poorly. These two booths are both relatively good booths for the Liberal Party so the projected result pushes down the Liberal vote and lifts the Labor vote.

6:30 – We have one small booth (Talbingo) where there was a 28% swing against the Liberal candidate.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in the Wagga Wagga by-election. I’ll be updating this occasionally through the night.

0

Podcast #7 – new PM, right-wing minor parties and Wagga

Ben is joined by Glenn Kefford from Macquarie University to discuss the new Liberal leadership, competition amongst right-wing minor parties and the Wagga Wagga by-election.

Read Glenn Kefford and Shaun Ratcliff’s analysis of nativist rhetoric at the Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

1

Podcast #6 – Liberal leadership spill and Lindsay

I was joined on Wednesday evening by Stewart Jackson and El Gibbs to discuss the Liberal leadership spill and the seat of Lindsay.

Our discussion of the Liberal leadership spill focused on some of the broader issues but was conducted before the rumours of a second spill strengthened later tonight. I expect our chat will be somewhat out of date in the next few days but most of it should still be interesting regardless of who comes out on top.

Read the Tally Room guide to Lindsay

Follow El Gibbs on Twitter

Stewart Jackson’s University of Sydney profile

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

1

The seats you’ve been talking about

With the federal election guide now complete, I decided to check in on which seats have been attracting the most comments. Comment sections are now open for all 159 federal contests, and some of these pages have been quite active.

These are the seats with the most comments. There’s some obvious marginal seats but also a few surprises.

SeatComments
Hume49
Ryan44
Macnamara39
Lindsay38
Cooper36
Cook33
Brisbane28
Higgins27
Lilley23
Reid22
Casey20
Herbert20
Hughes20
Stirling19
Deakin15
Isaacs15
New England15
QLD Senate15

Overall (as of Saturday evening) 1153 comments had been posted on 140 different guides, with nineteen races yet to attract a comment.

If there’s a seat that interests you, please join in!

7

Federal election guide finalised

For those who haven’t already noticed, I wanted to let you know that the guide to the next federal election is now finished and up on the website in total.

The guide includes profiles of all 151 House of Representatives races, and all eight Senate contests.

You can use these links to see a full list of lower house links:

Or you can use this map to navigate to any seat of interest. Click on the seat and a pop-up box will appear, including a link to the guide.

And here are links to the eight Senate contests:

Please let me know if there are any errors by commenting on the relevant post or by filling out the contact form on the front page of the guide. I will make some small changes as the election gets closer, and will occasionally do updates of candidate lists.

Meanwhile I am now posting one seat per day for the Victorian state election.

0

Podcast #5 – Voter representation choices and Gilmore

I’m joined this week by Jill Sheppard (@jillesheppard) and Osmond Chiu (@redrabbleroz) to discuss research into what candidate attributes influence voters’ choices, and profile the marginal seat of Gilmore in southern NSW.

Links to things discussed in this episode:

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

 

1

Podcast #4 – by-election results with William Bowe

Today’s episode is a slightly shorter interview with the Poll Bludger, William Bowe, where we run through the results of the by-elections and what they might mean.

You can subscribe using this RSS feed in your podcast app of choice, but should also be able to find this podcast by searching for “the Tally Room”. If you like the show please considering rating and reviewing us on iTunes.

7

Braddon and Longman – the maps

The by-elections last night ended up being quite clear and not particularly close in the end. I’ve put together a few maps to highlight some interesting elements.

This first map shows Longman. You can toggle between three different results layers: the 2PP vote, the 2PP swing to Labor, and the swing to One Nation.

The second map shows Braddon, and starts with the primary vote for independent candidate Craig Garland. You can toggle to a 2PP swing map. Overall the ALP has achieved roughly the same result as in 2016, so booths have swung in both directions in equal parts.

I’ll be back later tonight with a quick podcast, but enjoy these maps in the meantime.

6

Super Saturday election night live

8:56 – Nothing has changed in Braddon, Longman and Mayo. The sitting MPs are on track for increased majorities. We are starting to get voting figures from the two western by-elections. At the moment the Greens are on track for a distant second in Fremantle, with a chance of falling into third place behind the Liberal Democrats (presumably favoured by confused Liberal voters). We have no preference data from Perth. The Greens are doing quite well but still trail Labor on primary votes.

7:44 – I’m going to refrain from updates for a while, since it seems reasonably clear that the three sitting MPs in Braddon, Longman and Mayo are on track for re-election with increased majorities.

6:34 – Just after posting I saw a second booth has reported. Garland’s vote is down to 20%.

6:31 – We have one booth in Braddon and it’s produced swings against both major party candidates. Independent Craig Garland is on 26% of the vote. Of course it’s far too early to extrapolate but this suggests he will do well. It’s worth noting that Garland did much better in the more rural west of Braddon in the March state election. Presumably this booth is in his better areas and it doesn’t suggest a big result for him in Burnie or Devonport.

6:00 – Polls have just closed in the seats of Braddon and Longman. Polls will close in Mayo in half an hour, with Perth and Fremantle following in two hours from now.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, I’m at a friend’s wedding tonight so these posts will be a bit more sparse than normal. I’ll try to bring you quality over quantity, and there will definitely be some maps before the night is done.