Author Archive

Seeking information about NSW wards

By
Ben Raue
 – February 4, 2012

I’ve been putting work recently into producing new ward maps for the three east coast states that will have local government elections in 2012.

The electoral commissions in Queensland and Victoria provide an easy-to-follow page on their website with all the information about ward boundaries and what changes have been made.

I’ve now finished the map for Queensland. I’ve also posted the map for Victoria, although it doesn’t include nine councils whose ward boundaries are yet to be determined – these should all be resolved by the middle of April.

However NSW is much harder. I assume most councils won’t make a change to their electoral structure. There is no central source of information on what changes are being made, and short of searching through the entire minutes of every council it is difficult to definitively know what changes are made.

So if you have information about your local council and what wards they will be using in 2012, please let me know.

Queensland election: March 24

By
Ben Raue
 – January 25, 2012

Today Anna Bligh announced that the next Queensland state election will be held on March 24 2012.

This is an unusually early announcement of the election date, which is due to a number of complicating factors. Bligh has stated that she had intended to call the election for March 3, but these plans came apart after the inquiry into the handling of the Queensland floods disaster delayed the release of its report until March 16.

Another complicating factor is the impending Queensland local government elections. These were scheduled for March 31, less than a week after the three-year anniversary of the last state election. It was not considered practical to hold both state and local elections in such close succession.

The state government has the authority to postpone the local government elections by regulation, and Bligh has announced that the council elections will be postponed until late April or early May. The government is planning to consult before announcing the election date, with a decision presumably needing to be made before the election is officially called on February 19, when the caretaker period will begin.

The Bligh Labor government is expected to struggle against the Liberal National Party, now lead by former Brisbane mayor Campbell Newman. Some have suggested that a longer campaign may help Labor against the LNP, but polling has the LNP well in front.

You can read about each electorate, and post your own comments about the campaign in each electorate, by going to the Tally Room’s Queensland election guide.

State electorates in south-east Queensland.

In addition, I’m announcing today that I have posted a complete set of Queensland local government ward boundaries as a Google Earth map. You can download the ward map for 2012, along with the current local government areas, the current state and federal electoral boundaries, as well as old sets of electoral boundaries for all three levels of government. You can download them all from the maps page.

Ward boundaries in South-East Queensland for the 2012 local government elections. Brisbane City Council wards are coloured blue for LNP or red for Labor.

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Iowa 2012: Does it really mean anything?

By
Ben Raue
 – January 5, 2012

The US presidential primary system is a strange beast – the race opens with elections in a number of small states, a small proportion of delegates decided over an extended period, with the vast bulk of delegates not decided until a later date.

Yet this early period, despite not having a great deal of official significance, often decides the presidential race. Even when it doesn’t, it has a substantial impact on the eventual result, with candidates’ fortunes rising or falling based on their success in early primary races.

The real significance of primaries and caucuses in Iowa and New Hampshire (and to a lesser extent other early races such as South Carolina) comes from the significance given to them by the media, political figures, fundraisers and to a lesser extent the voting public.

This creates a bizarre political environment where winning can mean losing and losing can mean winning. Candidates who are expected to win a race easily can suffer if they win by less than expected, while a candidate expected to perform poorly can benefit from a better-than-expected result, even if they don’t win.

The staggered timing of primaries means that an earlier primary can determine the direction of a future primary, giving a candidate the exposure or the funding needed to win larger primaries: only a few campaigns ever gain the exposure needed to raise the funds necessary to compete in the bigger primaries down the track.

The most extreme example of this style of meta-politics was the Iowa Republican caucus, held on Tuesday.

Iowa’s Republican caucus does not even decide Iowa’s 25 delegates to the Republican convention – following the nonbinding presidential ballot, precinct caucuses elect delegates – and these delegates will eventually elect the people who will elect those 25 delegates. There is no requirement that these delegates’ affiliations reflect the result of the poll.

So the result in Iowa had no impact in terms of bringing a candidate closer to the 1144 delegates that will clinch the nomination – the importance of the result is determined by what significance it is awarded by the political class – including journalists who pass judgement on the success of candidates, candidates who decide to drop out after a poor showing, supporters who switch their support to someone more ‘viable’ , or voters themselves who are influenced by previous results.

In this case, it can produce quite bizarre results. We have ended up with a result where Mitt Romney managed to outpoll Rick Santorum by a bare 8 votes out of over 120,000 cast. If the caucus actually allocated delegates, this ‘lead’ would have absolutely no impact on the allocation of delegates, while it has zero significance in determining which of the candidates is more popular amongst Iowa Republicans. Yet the US television networks devoted substantial energy to determining who managed to eke out a handful more votes to claim the ‘psychological victory’ of winning the most votes.

If the determination of who won the most votes actually determined anything, such a close result would be fought over the result in the courts for weeks before a winner is declared. Similar numbers of people vote in a single federal electorate at Australian federal elections, and results where a candidate wins by a one-digit number usually result in the election being run again. Even in a real election, there is still a margin of error when the result is so close that a winner cannot be determined beyond any doubt.

So what can be drawn from the Iowa result?

Romney remains the clear frontrunner, and probably is in a stronger position now than before. He prevented any other contender from achieving a win in Iowa, and he knocked out Rick Perry, who was the only candidate who had achieved the sort of funds needed to rival Romney’s campaign, and the only rival with more executive experience than Romney.

Romney didn’t manage a knock-out defeat, but he now moves on to states where he will continue to be a strong contender.

On the other hand, Santorum is now in a good position to consolidate the right-wing support that has been going to candidates like Perry and Bachmann, but he will still struggle in states less favourable to him than Iowa.

It will be yet to be seen if Newt Gingrich can resurrect his campaign in New Hampshire, where he was Romney’s main rival until recently. At the moment he appears to be the only possible person who could challenge Santorum’s position as the main opponent to Mitt Romney.

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Queensland election guide finished

By
Ben Raue
 – December 21, 2011

Just in time for the end of the year, the Tally Room guide to the Queensland state election is now finished.

Profiles have been written for all 89 seats, as well as a summary of the last century in Queensland state politics, a summary of recent political events, and a summary of the key seats at the election.

I will continue to make updates to the lists of candidates and to the political analysis where the situation changes, and please feel free to engage in discussion in the comments section for each page.

The Queensland state election is due some time in the first half of next year, with the most likely dates being in February and March.

Now that preparations are finished for the Queensland state election, I’ll be moving on to preparing for the local government elections due in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and the Northern Territory in 2012. I’m unlikely to put together a guide for these elections as I have done for recent state and federal elections, but I will be hoping to put together new ward maps for all of those councils facing election.

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US 2012: the early primaries

By
Ben Raue
 – December 1, 2011

US presidential primaries are unlike any other election in the world. You have a massive expensive race involving a large number of candidates, where the race often hinges on small states with their own peculiarities.

It doesn’t even have much resemblance to primaries for lower levels of elected office in the United States, such as Senate, Governor or House of Representatives. Voting in primaries for Senate or the House are usually held on the one day, and thus tend to be between a smaller number of candidates.

There are a number of early states which tend to receive most of the attention, yet ultimately they only decide a small number of delegates to the parties’ conventions that will decide the parties’ candidates in August-September.

These races are far more influential because of other factors. They tend to be decisive in controlling the flow of fundraising dollars, perceptions of momentum and the perception that a candidate has the ability to attract votes in the general election. Candidates who poll above expectations can benefit from an early primary, even if they do not win the race. Similarly a candidate who was expected to easily win a primary can be hurt by a narrow loss.

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US 2012: Republican race gets close to voting

By
Ben Raue
 – November 30, 2011

The race for the Republican presidential nomination for the 2012 presidential election has been underway for most of 2011, yet I’ve avoided the campaign on this blog.

No votes will be cast until 2012, and while candidates have risen and fallen over the last year of campaigning, not much has been achieved. I thought it best to wait until we were closer to some real voting before taking a look at the field.

We are now just over a month away from the Iowa caucuses, when we will begin to see real votes cast and the race begin to narrow into the key stretch which will determine who will be Barack Obama’s opposition in 2012.

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New Zealand 2011: results wrap

By
Ben Raue
 – November 28, 2011

It’s much easier to summarise a New Zealand election than in a country like Australia, Canada or the UK where the election is dependent on particular seats and regions.

Overall the result was 60 National, 34 Labour, 13 Green, 8 New Zealand First, 3 Maori, and one each for Mana, ACT and United Future.

This has been spun as a landslide victory for National but I’m not so sure. National will definitely form the next government, but their position is possibly weaker.

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New Zealand: results

By
Ben Raue
 – November 26, 2011

9:32 - National is now down to 61 seats, Labour on 33, Greens on 13, with others the same with NZF on 8, Maori Party on 3 and three other parties on 1 each.

9:23 – Look at the political arrangements at the current projection. The left (Labour + Greens + Mana) has 46 seats. National and its allies has 67 seats, with New Zealand First on 8. If National drops a few seats they may well rely on the Maori Party to maintain their position.

9:15 – Having said that Antony Green projects National falling to 48.5%, which would give them only 60 seats. There is no doubt they will form a government, but maybe not with a majority.

9:11 – I’m going to stop monitoring the key electorates as they are all clearly headed where they were looking like earlier. Currently National is on 62/121 seats. They could still form a majority if they drop to 63. Their coalition partners have fallen from 11 seats in 2008 to only five seats this time.

9:06 – National has now fallen below 50% but are still projected to win a slim majority.

8:40 – Some points worth noting: National tends to do better on the advance vote. This result would only produce an overhang of one seat. Three small parties would effectively be reduced to a single seat, making their electorate MP an effective independent. On current figures former Opposition Leader Don Brash wouldn’t get elected.

8:38 – If the current results nationally were translated into a result, with ACT, Mana and United Future winning one seat each and the Maori Party winning three, the result would be:

  • National – 63
  • Labour – 32
  • Green – 12
  • NZ First – 8
  • Maori – 3
  • ACT – 1
  • Mana – 1
  • United Future – 1

8:29 – There are five key seats I covered in yesterday’s post. In Epsom, ACT candidate John Banks is leading National 46-38. In Ohariu, Peter Dunne is leading Labour 52-46. In Te Tai Tokerau, the Mana Party’s Hone Harawira is leading Labour 50-34. In Te Tai Tonga, the Maori Party MP Katene is trailing the Labour candidate 32-40. In Hauraki-Waikato, the sitting Labour MP is well ahead of both the Mana and Maori candidates. This would result in the Mana, ACT and United Future each winning a single seat and the Maori Party dropping from four seats to three.

8:25 – Interpreting these results on face value, it would give National a majority or close to it, it would be the worst ever result for Labour and the best ever for the Greens. It would also see NZF returned to Parliament with approximately 8 seats. I’m doing some analysis of key electorates to produce a projection on current figures.

8:19 – Overall the Nationals are currently on 50% of the vote, Labour on 26.1%, the Greens on 10.1% and New Zealand First on 6.8%. Bear in mind that early results favour National and go against Labour. It’s not yet clear if NZF benefits in the advance vote.

8:17 – Welcome to my coverage of the New Zealand election. Polls closed over an hour ago and most of the results so far are advance votes (called prepoll votes in Australia). Will provide a roundup of results so far in a minute.

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New Zealand: what to watch on election night

By
Ben Raue
 – November 25, 2011

New Zealand’s Parliament includes 70 single-member electorates – a majority of seats in the Parliament. On the surface this would suggest that any analyst looking at election results on Saturday night should focus on the key marginal seats where National and Labour candidates will be fighting it out to determine how the Parliament will be shaped. However most of these races are irrelevant to the overall result. Neither major party will win more seats than the total number of seats they are entitled to. So if the Nationals gain an extra seat, it will simply be deducted from their list seats. If Labour loses a seat, they will gain an extra seat on the list to compensate.

There are, however, a handful of races where the result will have a material impact on the overall make-up of Parliament, and they are worth watching on Saturday night. There are five electorates which may have an impact on the performance of key minor parties, while the nationwide vote for New Zealand First and National will be ones to watch on the night.

The overall seat results largely reflect the proportion of the party vote, but this proportionality is distorted by the issue of “wasted votes” for parties who fail to meet the threshold, an ‘overhang’ where parties win more seats than they are entitled to, and issues with parties’ survival depending on them winning one particular seat. Antony Green dealt with some of these issues in his blog post yesterday.

I plan on liveblogging the results on Saturday night. If you want to get a better handle on New Zealand polling, both nationally and in key seats, I suggest you check out Curiablog, which has done a good job of compiling polls in a single place.

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New Zealand election preview

By
Ben Raue
 – November 21, 2011

New Zealanders are going to the polls this Saturday to hold their general election. The conservative National Party government will be seeking a second term after defeating the Labour Party in 2008.

New Zealand elects its Parliament using the Mixed Member Proportional system. Under this system, 69 seats in the Parliament are filled representing specific districts, with the winner elected by First Past the Post. 62 of these seats are ‘general’ electorates. The other seven are Maori seats, with Maori voters given a choice of whether to be on the general roll or the Maori roll.

A further 51 are elected to ensure that the overall balance in the Parliament is proportional to the national party vote. This means that small parties tend to get a larger proportion of the list seats, as they tend to be unrepresented or underrepresented in the single-member electorates. To win list seats, a party needs to win at least one electorate seat or win 5% of the national party vote.

This system has existed since 1996, and in that time has ensured that no party was able to form a majority government on its own.

The Labour government after the 2005 election governed with the support of the centre-left Progressive Party, the centrist United Future party and right-wing populist New Zealand First. Also in Parliament was the right-wing small-government ACT, the Maori Party, the Green Party, and the National Party opposition.

In 2008, the Nationals, Maori Party, Green Party and ACT all gained ground. Labour lost seats, while United Future’s Peter Dunne failed to bring in any party colleagues. New Zealand First was eliminated from Parliament completely, as their vote fell below 5% and their party leader Winston Peters failed to regain his electorate seat that he had lost in 2005.

A new government was formed by National with support arrangements with ACT, the Maori Party and Peter Dunne, effectively an independent as the sole United Future MP.

The last three years have been a solid term for John Key’s National Party, despite severe earthquakes in Christchurch and economic troubles. The Nationals have been polling over 50% in most polls since early 2009, which would allow the party to form a majority government without any other parties if reflected at an election.

Labour has been suffering the typical problems expected of a new opposition learning to deal with the difficulties of being out of office. Labour leader Phil Goff has largely failed to capture the country’s imagination or dent the position of the new government.

The Green Party have cemented their place as the third party in New Zealand politics, and are consistently polling at levels now that would give them an increase in seats above their nine current seats, with some polls giving them around 12-13% of the vote.

ACT New Zealand have had a tumultuous year. In early 2011, ACT leader Rodney Hide was replaced in a party coup by former National Party leader Don Brash. Brash then proceeded to take over the party machine and find new candidates for key positions. All five sitting ACT MPs will retire at the election.

ACT hasn’t been polling close to the 5% threshold all term, so the party will need to retain Hide’s Auckland seat of Epsom to stay in Parliament. To contest the seat, Brash recruited former Auckland mayor and National minister John Banks. Last week Banks and Key were caught in a scandal when they were secretly recorded during a meeting in a cafe. ACT polled 3.7% in 2008, but haven’t polled above 2% in months. Assuming Banks can win Epsom, he will probably only bring in one or two more ACT MPs.

The Maori Party has also suffered division since 2008. The party first won four of the seven Maori seats in 2005, before gaining a fifth in 2008.

Maori Party MP Hone Harawira resigned from the party earlier this year to form a new Mana Party, which is positioned to the left of the Maori Party, particularly critical of the party’s relationship with the conservative government. He resigned from Parliament and retained his seat at a by-election. Polls suggest he is likely to win again. The Maori Party will be competing in three-way races with the Mana Party and the Labour Party across the seven Maori seats, with the result hard to predict.

Overall the election looks set to produce a majority government in a system to prevent such an outcome. I wrote much more about the New Zealand election in a much closer race in 2008, and you can read about them in the archives.

I plan to blog more over the course of this week, including about the electoral system referendum that will also be held on Saturday.

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