Senate – Victoria – Australia 2019

Incumbent Senators

Term due to expire 2019Term due to expire 2022
Jacinta Collins (Labor) Kim Carr (Labor)
Derryn Hinch (Justice) Richard Di Natale (Greens)
Jane Hume (Liberal) Mitch Fifield (Liberal)
Gavin Marshall (Labor) Kimberley Kitching (Labor)1
James Paterson (Liberal) Bridget McKenzie (Nationals)
Janet Rice (Greens) Scott Ryan (Liberal)

1Kimberley Kitching replaced Stephen Conroy on 25 October 2016 following Stephen Conroy’s resignation.

History
The 1951 election, which was the first to result in a Senate entirely elected by proportional representation, gave an overall result of 5 ALP senators, 4 Liberal senators and one Country Party senator. The 1953 election saw the ALP gain a seat off the Liberals, giving them a 6-4 majority. This was the only time the ALP, or any party, won a majority of Victoria’s Senate delegation under PR.

The 1955 election saw the party that became the Democratic Labor Party win a seat off the ALP. At the 1961 election, both the DLP and the ALP lost a Senate seat, with the Liberals winning two, giving them five seats, with three ALP and one each for the DLP and Country Party. In 1964, the DLP regained their single Senate seat from the Liberal Party. In 1967, the DLP gained a second seat off the Country Party, who were left with no Victorian senators.

The 1970 election saw the Country Party regain their seat, off the ALP. The ALP was reduced to three seats, with four Liberals and two DLP senators. The 1974 double dissolution saw the ALP regain ground, with both DLP senators being defeated, and the ALP gaining two seats, bringing their contingent to five out of ten senators.

The 1975 double dissolution reduced the ALP to four seats, with the National Country Party gaining a second seat. The 1977 election saw former Liberal minister Don Chipp elected to the Senate for the newly-formed Australian Democrats. The National Country Party lost one of its senators to the Democrats. The 1980 election saw the NCP lose its other seat to the Democrats.

In the 1983 double dissolution, the ALP gained a fifth seat at the expense of the second Democrats senator. At the 1984 election, an increase in Senators saw the Liberals and Democrats each gain an extra seat. The Democrats again lost their second Victorian senator at the 1987 double dissolution to Nationals candidate Julian McGauran.

The 1990 election saw McGauran defeated, and the Democrats again regain their second seat. The 1993 election saw the Democrats lose a seat yet again to the Nationals. This produced a result of five each for the ALP and Liberals, and one each for the Nationals and Democrats. This status quo was maintained until the 2004 election, when the ALP lost one of its five senate seats to Family First’s Steven Fielding.

The 2007 election saw the ALP regain a fifth seat at the expense of the Democrats, who lost their last Victorian senator. In 2010, the Coalition lost one of their three seats, and Family First’s Steve Fielding also lost his seat. These two seats went to the Greens’ Richard Di Natale and the Democratic Labor Party’s John Madigan, shifting the split from 4-2 to the right to 3-3.

In 2013, both Labor and Liberal lost their third seat, to the Greens and Ricky Muir of the Motoring Enthusiasts Party.

The 2016 double dissolution produced two changes. Labor and Greens maintained four and two seats respectively. The Coalition regained a fifth seat, while Derryn Hinch won a seat as an independent. Ricky Muir and John Madigan both lost their seats.

2016 result

GroupVotes%SwingQuota
Liberal/Nationals 1,158,80033.1-7.04.3038
Labor 1,075,65830.7-1.73.9950
Greens 380,49910.90.01.4132
Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party211,7336.0+6.10.7864
One Nation63,5281.8+1.80.2359
Animal Justice60,7801.7+1.70.2257
Liberal Democrats55,5011.6+1.60.2061
Nick Xenophon Team55,1181.6+1.60.2047
Sex Party54,1281.5+1.60.2010
Family First39,7471.1+1.10.1476
Shooters, Fishers and Farmers36,6691.0+1.10.1362
Australian Christians34,7631.0+0.50.1291
Australian Motoring Enthusiast Party31,7850.9+0.40.1181
Drug Law Reform23,3840.7+0.60.0868
Liberty Alliance23,0800.7+0.70.0857
Democratic Labour Party18,1520.5-0.20.0674
Others176,9125.1

Preference flows
Eight seats were won on primary votes – the Coalition won four seats, Labor won three and the Greens one.

Labor’s fourth candidate, Gavin Marshall came very close to a quota on primary votes, and was elected in ninth place soon after.

Let’s fast forward to the final ten candidates running for the last three seats:

  • Derryn Hinch (DHJ) – 0.8816
  • Janet Rice (GRN) – 0.5472
  • Jane Hume (LIB) – 0.4058
  • Peter Bain (FF) – 0.3582
  • Bruce Poon (AJP) – 0.3364
  • Simon Roylance (ON) – 0.3209
  • Meredith Doig (SXP) – 0.3098
  • Naomi Halpern (NXT) – 0.2922
  • Duncan Spender (LDP) – 0.2422
  • Jake Wilson (SFF) – 0.1920

Shooters preferences scattered, with the Sex Party doing best:

  • Derryn Hinch (DHJ) – 0.8983
  • Janet Rice (GRN) – 0.5556
  • Jane Hume (LIB) – 0.4318
  • Peter Bain (FF) – 0.3771
  • Bruce Poon (AJP) – 0.3446
  • Simon Roylance (ON) – 0.3513
  • Meredith Doig (SXP) – 0.3511
  • Naomi Halpern (NXT) – 0.2981
  • Duncan Spender (LDP) – 0.2597

The Liberal Party did best from LDP preferences, while One Nation and the Sex Party overtook Animal Justice:

  • Derryn Hinch (DHJ) – 0.9197
  • Janet Rice (GRN) – 0.5924
  • Jane Hume (LIB) – 0.5181
  • Peter Bain (FF) – 0.4099
  • Simon Roylance (ON) – 0.3696
  • Meredith Doig (SXP) – 0.3691
  • Bruce Poon (AJP) – 0.3557
  • Naomi Halpern (NXT) – 0.3062

NXT preferences particularly favoured the Greens:

  • Hinch (DHJ) – 0.9746
  • Rice (GRN) – 0.6832
  • Hume (LIB) – 0.5632
  • Bain (FF) – 0.4278
  • Roylance (ON) – 0.3950
  • Doig (SXP) – 0.3918
  • Poon (AJP) – 0.3678

Animal Justice preferences particularly favoured the Greens, but also pushed Derryn Hinch over quota. After his preferences were distributed, the count looked as follows:

  • Rice (GRN) – 0.7710
  • Hume (LIB) – 0.5855
  • Bain (FF) – 0.4789
  • Doig (SXP) – 0.4306
  • Roylance (ON) – 0.4105

One Nation preferences favoured all of those candidates other than the Greens, but they did not change the ranking:

  • Rice (GRN) – 0.8081
  • Hume (LIB) – 0.6759
  • Bain (FF) – 0.5683
  • Doig (SXP) – 0.5015

Sex Party preferences favoured the Greens, bringing Rice close to a quota. They also favoured Family First over the Liberal, but they couldn’t close the gap on the Liberal Party. Bain’s exclusion resulted in the election of Rice and Hume.

  • Rice (GRN) – 0.9721
  • Hume (LIB) – 0.7263
  • Bain (FF) – 0.6268

 

Candidates
No information.

Assessment
Labor and Coalition should each retain two seats at the next election. The remaining two seats will likely be a contest between Derryn Hinch, the Greens, and the third Labor and Coalition candidates.

The Greens are likely to poll strongly enough to hold on to their seat. It’s difficult to see Labor winning a third seat in addition to the Greens, so the last seat is likely to be a contest between the Coalition and Hinch.
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