Pendulum – Australia 2019

The following table shows all House of Representatives electorates to be contested at the 2019 federal election, ordered according to two-candidate-preferred margin.

Seats in South Australia, Victoria and the ACT are based on draft boundaries and are subject to change.

Coalition SeatsLabor Seats
SeatMarginSeatMargin
Corangamite (VIC)LIB 0.02%Herbert (QLD)ALP 0.02%
Capricornia (QLD)LNP 0.6%Cooper (VIC)ALP 0.6% vs GRN
Forde (QLD)LNP 0.6%Cowan (WA)ALP 0.7%
Gilmore (NSW)LIB 0.7%Longman (QLD)ALP 0.8%
Flynn (QLD)LNP 1.0%Dunkley (VIC)ALP 1.0%
Robertson (NSW)LIB 1.1%Lindsay (NSW)ALP 1.1%
Banks (NSW)LIB 1.4%Macnamara (VIC)ALP 1.2%
Petrie (QLD)LNP 1.6%Griffith (QLD)ALP 1.4%
Dickson (QLD)LNP 1.7%Braddon (TAS)ALP 1.7%
Grey (SA)LIB 1.9% vs NXTMacquarie (NSW)ALP 2.2%
Hasluck (WA)LIB 2.1%Eden-Monaro (NSW)ALP 2.9%
Page (NSW)NAT 2.3%Isaacs (VIC)ALP 3.0%
Boothby (SA)LIB 2.7%Perth (WA)ALP 3.3%
Chisholm (VIC)LIB 2.9%Lyons (TAS)ALP 3.8%
La Trobe (VIC)LIB 3.2%Bendigo (VIC)ALP 3.9%
Bonner (QLD)LNP 3.4%Moreton (QLD)ALP 4%
Dawson (QLD)LNP 3.4%Richmond (NSW)ALP 4%
Pearce (WA)LIB 3.6%Hotham (VIC)ALP 4.2%
Swan (WA)LIB 3.6%Dobell (NSW)ALP 4.8%
Leichhardt (QLD)LNP 3.9%Wills (VIC)ALP 4.9% vs GRN
Barker (SA)LIB 4.2% vs NXTBass (TAS)ALP 5.4%
Casey (VIC)LIB 4.5%Jagajaga (VIC)ALP 5.6%
Cowper (NSW)NAT 4.6% vs INDLilley (QLD)ALP 5.7%
Reid (NSW)LIB 4.7%McEwen (VIC)ALP 5.9%
Sturt (SA)LIB 5.4%Solomon (NT)ALP 6.1%
Brisbane (QLD)LNP 6.0%Greenway (NSW)ALP 6.3%
Stirling (WA)LIB 6.1%Burt (WA)ALP 7.1%
Deakin (VIC)LIB 6.4%Ballarat (VIC)ALP 7.4%
Canning (WA)LIB 6.8%Fremantle (WA)ALP 7.5%
Flinders (VIC)LIB 7.0%Parramatta (NSW)ALP 7.7%
Bowman (QLD)LNP 7.1%Blair (QLD)ALP 8.1%
Aston (VIC)LIB 7.4%Werriwa (NSW)ALP 8.2%
Monash (VIC)LIB 7.5%Lingiari (NT)ALP 8.2%
Higgins (VIC)LIB 7.6% vs GRNBarton (NSW)ALP 8.3%
Menzies (VIC)LIB 7.8%Macarthur (NSW)ALP 8.3%
Wide Bay (QLD)LNP 8.2%Adelaide (SA)ALP 8.3%
Hinkler (QLD)LNP 8.4%Corio (VIC)ALP 8.2%
New England (NSW)NAT 8.5% vs INDHindmarsh (SA)ALP 8.4%
Ryan (QLD)LNP 9.0%Kingsford Smith (NSW)ALP 8.6%
Wannon (VIC)LIB 9.2%Bean (ACT)ALP 8.9%
Fisher (QLD)LNP 9.2%Oxley (QLD)ALP 9.0%
Hughes (NSW)LIB 9.3%Shortland (NSW)ALP 9.9%
Wright (QLD)LNP 9.6%Holt (VIC)ALP 10.0%
Bennelong (NSW)LIB 9.7%Maribyrnong (VIC)ALP 10.4%
Hume (NSW)LIB 10.2%Paterson (NSW)ALP 10.7%
Fairfax (QLD)LNP 10.9%Franklin (TAS)ALP 10.7%
Moore (WA)LIB 11.0%Makin (SA)ALP 10.8%
Tangney (WA)LIB 11.1%Rankin (QLD)ALP 11.3%
Durack (WA)LIB 11.1%Brand (WA)ALP 11.4%
Fadden (QLD)LNP 11.2%Fenner (ACT)ALP 11.8%
Warringah (NSW)LIB 11.6% vs GRNMcMahon (NSW)ALP 12.1%
Lyne (NSW)NAT 11.6%Hunter (NSW)ALP 12.5%
McPherson (QLD)LNP 11.6%Canberra (ACT)ALP 12.9%
Calare (NSW)NAT 11.8%Cunningham (NSW)ALP 13.3%
Forrest (WA)LIB 12.6%Kingston (SA)ALP 13.5%
Goldstein (VIC)LIB 12.7%Whitlam (NSW)ALP 13.7%
Kooyong (VIC)LIB 12.8%Newcastle (NSW)ALP 13.8%
North Sydney (NSW)LIB 13.6%Bruce (VIC)ALP 14.0%
Moncrieff (QLD)LNP 14.6%Lalor (VIC)ALP 14.2%
O’Connor (WA)LIB 15.0%Gellibrand (VIC)ALP 15.1%
Parkes (NSW)NAT 15.1%Sydney (NSW)ALP 15.3%
Groom (QLD)LNP 15.3%Grayndler (NSW)ALP 15.8% vs GRN
Cook (NSW)LIB 15.4%Spence (SA)ALP 17.1%
Mackellar (NSW)LIB 15.7%Fowler (NSW)ALP 17.5%
Maranoa (QLD)LNP 15.9% vs ONWatson (NSW)ALP 17.6%
Berowra (NSW)LIB 16.4%Gorton (VIC)ALP 18.5%
Riverina (NSW)NAT 16.4%Chifley (NSW)ALP 19.2%
Wentworth (NSW)LIB 17.7%Blaxland (NSW)ALP 19.5%
Mitchell (NSW)LIB 17.8%Scullin (VIC)ALP 19.6%
Gippsland (VIC)NAT 18.2%Calwell (VIC)ALP 19.8%
Mallee (VIC)NAT 19.8%Fraser (VIC)ALP 19.8%
Farrer (NSW)LIB 20.5%
Curtin (WA)LIB 20.7%Indi (VIC)IND 4.9% vs LIB
Bradfield (NSW)LIB 21.0%Mayo (SA)NXT 5.3% vs LIB
Nicholls (VIC)NAT 22.2%Kennedy (QLD)KAP 10.6% vs LNP
Clark (TAS)IND 17.8% vs ALP
Melbourne (VIC)GRN 18.5% vs LIB

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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.