Macnamara – Australia 2019

ALP 1.2%

Incumbent MP
Michael Danby, member for Melbourne Ports since 1998.

Geography
Inner south of Melbourne. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park and South Melbourne.

Redistribution
Macnamara is a new name for Melbourne Ports. The seat gained Windsor from Higgins, which reduced the Labor margin from 1.4% to 1.2%. The gap between Labor and the Greens at the key exclusion point was also reduced from 1.1% to 0.3%.

History
Melbourne Ports was an original Federation electorate. After originally being won by the Protectionist party, it has been held by the ALP consistently since 1906, although it has rarely been held by large margins.

Melbourne Ports was first won in 1901 by Protectionist candidate Samuel Mauger, who had been a state MP for one year before moving into federal politics. Mauger was re-elected in 1903 but in 1906 moved to the new seat of Maribyrnong, which he held until his defeat in 1910.

Melbourne Ports was won in 1906 by Labor candidates James Mathews. Mathews held Melbourne Ports for a quarter of a century, retiring in 1931.

Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. Holloway had served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, and served in the Cabinet of John Curtin and Ben Chifley throughout the 1940s. He retired at the 1951 election and was succeeded by state MP Frank Crean.

Crean quickly rose through the Labor ranks and was effectively the Shadow Treasurer from the mid-1950s until the election of the Whitlam government in 1972. Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. He served as Deputy Prime Minister for the last four months of the Whitlam government, and retired in 1977.

Crean was replaced by Clyde Holding, who had served as Leader of the Victorian Labor Party from 1967 until 1976. He won preselection against Simon Crean, son of Frank. Holding served in the Hawke ministry from 1983 until the 1990 election, and served as a backbencher until his retirement in 1998.

Holding was replaced by Michael Danby in 1998, and Danby has won re-election at every subsequent election, although never with huge margins, and a margin as small as 3% in 2004 and 1.4% in 2016.

Candidates
Sitting Labor MP Michael Danby is not running for re-election.

Assessment
Macnamara is a very complex seat with great variations in the vote across different booths. The Liberal Party has a significant lead on the primary vote, but Greens preferences were enough to push Labor ahead in 2016. The Greens are close to overtaking Labor, at which point Labor preferences would decide the result. Any of the three parties could conceivably win. It’s not clear what impact Michael Danby’s retirement will have on the seat – there’s evidence that his presence as an incumbent helped Labor in some parts of the seat and hurt them in others.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Owen Guest Liberal 35,53341.9+0.941.9
Michael Danby Labor 22,89727.0-4.726.6
Steph Hodgins-May Greens 20,17923.8+3.624.2
Robert Millen SmythAnimal Justice1,6852.0+2.02.0
Henry Von DoussaMarriage Equality1,3491.6+1.61.6
Levi Mckenzie-KirkbrightDrug Law Reform1,3481.6+1.61.5
Peter HollandIndependent1,3931.6+1.61.6
John B MyersIndependent4250.5+0.50.5
Others0.2
Informal3,7564.2

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Michael Danby Labor 43,57351.4-2.251.2
Owen Guest Liberal 41,23648.6+2.248.8

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas: Port Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield.

Labor won a large 61.7% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in St Kilda, and half of the vote in Caulfield. The Liberal Party polled 51.2% in Port Melbourne.

On a primary vote basis, the three areas look very different. The Greens topped the primary vote in St Kilda, with Labor a distant third. In Port Melbourne and Caulfield, the Liberal Party topped the primary vote, with Labor second and the Greens in third place.

Voter groupGRN prim %ALP prim %LIB prim %ALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
St Kilda35.325.931.161.717,71220.0
Port Melbourne21.627.744.748.816,76418.9
Caulfield20.129.444.750.08,5509.6
Other votes19.326.545.847.022,89025.8
Pre-poll23.825.343.549.622,80625.7

Election results in Macnamara at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Labor primary votes, Liberal primary votes and Greens primary votes, as well as a map showing which party topped the primary vote in each booth.

Become a Patron!

298 COMMENTS

  1. I’ve obviously spelt it correctly in every other post, so if it’s clear I know the spelling, what’s the point of letting me know about what was obviously just a one off typing error (not a spelling error) about 4 posts ago??

  2. I can’t see the Liberals were ever much of a realistic chance in Macnamara this election with the Liberal Party as it is and Ashmor has just made their position worse.

    I think Labor will end up narrowly leading on first preferences and should win easily on Green preferences (or maybe even Liberal preferences if it goes exceptionally badly for them). It’s a winnable seat for the Greens in an election where Labor finish third or the Greens significantly improve their primary vote but I doubt that’s going to happen this time.

  3. Malcolm considering the seat’s demographics, a moderate Liberal government with a solid economic and social policy record like the successful introduction of gay marriage against Shorten and some of the ALP’s policies such as purposed changes to investments might have seen this seat go to the Liberals, but that is a “what if” and isn’t what has happened. The next redistribution will be interesting because overtime this seat is expected to see its southern or eastern boundary move towards the city and the future demographics of Fishermans Bend is anyone’s guess.

  4. John – I don’t think it is sabotage but its not helping. That Bourke journalist in Canberra is stiring it up. However other that those who read newspapers who is taking any notice of the election news anyway. It all seems to be about leaders going to pubs and kicking a ball around. I do miss the TV news stories of ALP leaders staring up uncomprehendingly at the brake drum of a car on a hoist at a car plant that now no longer exist.

    Ashmor is correct though as non government schools are mostly better than many government school and many parents know this. Look at all those striking government pupils who achieve nothing on climate change. The best way to help arrest climate change is to breed less humans and for pupils to attending sex education classes at school. No more that three children per couple before the marriage fails as 50% of them do.

  5. The AEC list the candidates and all have a profession or a job except RUAP who is a retire administrator while the ALP candidate is NOT EMPLOYED. Could Josh Burns even hold down a civilian job?

  6. I walked from home across Albert Park Reserve to the Deaf Institute in St Kilda Rd were early voting took place and voted and it was not crowded. I then caught a No 16 tram to Acland St, St Kilda, to listen to ABC Radio Melbourne drive show broadcast with the Lib, Lab and Grn candidates being interviewed. Most of the minor party and independent candidates for the electorate were in the street audience as well as some other local familiar faces.

    What cheesed me off was most of the discussion was about North Queensland and not this electorate. I even called out “we live in Macnamara not Queensland” and that “the retiring MHR Danby was a drop kick for the last 20 years”. A big fail Raf Epstein (ABC Radio Melbourne drive show presenter).

  7. The unChain Inc forum tonight was the best one I have attended so far. The 3 major candidates spoke on the economy, civil rights including refugees plus corruption and honesty. Also speaking were a number of minor party and independent candidates and they were all great and had a different slant on politics. The only minors not present were Animal Justice and Rise Up Australia.

    At the rear door they had buckets for donations and I donated $10.00 but many of the mostly St Kilda types in attendance were “tight asses” and donated nothing or 20 cents. These forums cost money to put on so this was disappointing. The venue was “Memo” (Memorial) Hall at the rear of St Kilda RSL. Memo is known for great live music at other times.

  8. At the start the usual praise for the original owners of the land, the Aboriginals, was stated by organiser Serge Thomann (a former Port Phillip City councillor) however many speakers repeated the same praise of the natives which wasted time repeating what had been said already once at the start. Anyhow as I walked home just outside the RSL the police were placing a drunk Aboriginal fellow into the divisional van to round off the indigenous part of the evening.

  9. Adrian I bet you have some strong views on 18C – stop me if I’m wrong, but I just get a vibe from your last observations about ‘natives’. The Oz online will be a good safe space for you while you stew over Shorten’s indigenous recognition agenda over the next three years (at least). Regards.

  10. Even if Labor win the election, I very much doubt that they’ll substantively honour their commitments in Indigenous Affairs. It’s just one of a range of ‘elitist or bubble’ policies (e.g. the Republic and so on) which have absolutely no bearing on the ordinary lives of most people. It’s not a recipe for widespread electoral success.

    If Shorten wins, it’s going to be economy, economy, economy. Lest he suffer the fate of PJK and lose every sensible middle Australian who votes on bread and butter issues.

  11. In some isolated places Aboriginal issue is unsolvable. However there are some excellent mixed race aboriginals doing well, like the excellent Jacinta Price standing in the NT. There are a number of mixed race aboriginals (Liberal and Labor) in the parliament already provided they are re-elected on 18 May 19. Price is unusual as she acknowledged her Scottish-Australian heritage as well as her Aboriginal tribal heritage. Well done Jacinta.

  12. Another candidate (not the Liberal) told me today at my local shopping centre that Josh Burns has been working in Michael Danby’s office so he is not “NOT WORKING” as stated on his AEC profile. Mr Danby has been one of the worst main stream MHR’s or Senator’s in Victoria in my adult living memory and I am 66 years old.

    Will we see more of the same with Josh Burns if he is elected? I am getting sick of hearing about Israel, the holocaust and posters being defaces with graffiti from these Caulfield spivs, but little else in the last 20 years. I am more interested in the current holocaust in Palestine though.

  13. Looking through my two so called “local “newspaper (Port Phillip Leader and Domain Review) there is nothing about the Macnamara electorate with no political advertisements nor political editorials.

    The once influential local newspapers are long gone being replaced with a junk mail glossy trash mag full of real estate and private school advertisements plus weak articles about celebrities. Letters to the Editor disappeared months ago.

    I remember when the late Peter Issacson printed the Emerald Hill, Sandridge and St Kilda Times which was just on news print papers in black and white which ran rings around what we get now.

  14. Hodkins- May finished. Article in the OZ today about Foodora which she co founded. Prosecutions underway for breaches of FWC, & RIPPING OFF WORKERS. Unbelievable. I’ll bet she won’t withdraw, unlike all the other dud candidates. That’s the Greens, they get away with stuff no one else would even contemplate.

  15. I don’t believe she is involved in Foodora herself, one of the co-founders of Foodora is a business partner in a different business that she is a co-founder of.

    I doubt it will affect her vote too much. It’s a bit of a stretch too to say that no other party would get away with having done business with somebody who has once been involved with a different shifty company.

  16. Also the article may not even get much coverage if it’s only in The Australian (there’s nothing in The Age) so it’ll be interesting to see if it gets covered wider. If not I’d say it’s a non-issue, nobody who would consider voting Greens would be likely to read The Australian.

  17. Just did a quick check, although admittedly I haven’t read the article because The Australian is paywalled and not surprisingly I don’t subscribe.

    Steph Hodgins-May and her partner are co-founders of an organic fruit and vegetable company called Local, an online version of farmer’s market type fruit and vegetable sales.

    The third business partner is Panayiotou Koutlakis who was previously the Victorian CEO of Foodora, who had/have all the issues with underpaying workers which is clearly not acceptable.

    From a the perspective of relevance to Steph’s campaign though, Local was founded in 2017 before the Foodora allegations surfaced so it’s very possible her and her partner, starting up a business for the first time, would not have known about the dodgy practices their new business partner had previously been overseeing at Foodora.

    I think it’s a bit of a long bow The Australian is drawing between Steph Hodgins-May being a hypocrite (based on the headline, again I haven’t read the content) because of a business partner’s involvement in another company she has nothing to do with, that had dodgy dealings which didn’t surface until after they went into business together. It’s basically a case of guilt by association rather than any direct wrongdoing such is the case with candidates who have made hateful statements themselves.

    Again, not sure if there is more to the story at this stage or if it will break wider if there is, but at this point if the accusation doesn’t go much further than association with the Foodora CEO and doesn’t break much wider than The Australian article, I’d say it’ll have little to no impact on her chances of being elected.

  18. Trent
    You could well be (completely !) right on this. The OZ appear to have pulled this, not merely superseded it. I was going to copy & paste the whole thing. Then again my technological “expertise” is always highly suspect !. As usual WD Junior is quick to show his understanding, & tolerance for the ineptness of my generation with the pronouncement that we are all “just lazy, & stupid”.
    Anyway you are dead on about waiting to see if more ensues. Next time i will copy & paste so as not to put you to this kind of trouble. Apologies. I don’t want make a habit of apologising to you Trent !

  19. No need to apologise, like I said I haven’t even read the article so wasn’t sure if there was more to it or not myself!

    I suspect with The Greens so far bring pretty untainted in regards to candidate controversy compared to the other parties (unlike the Victorian election where they had huge candidate issues), The Australian is probably trying pretty hard to dig something up. What better seat than one being touted, albeit probably incorrectly for this election, as a tight 3 way contest that both the Greens and Liberals think they can win.

    I have to say I’m surprised, being a Victorian seat, that the Herald Sun doesn’t appear to have picked up the story given both are News Corp and the HS has a much bigger audience.

  20. Trent
    Agree that this could be suss. Including the motivations you put forward. Good point about the HS.

  21. I get the Oz and AFR home delivered so I will have a read of The Australia now as I was at a Port Phillip Council budget and costs cuts forum today. I don’t think that there are many Oz readers in Macnamara except maybe in Caulfield and parts of Southbank and the newspaper is not free to look at online either.

  22. Despite soon to retire from Parliament on 17 May 19 Melbourne Ports 20 year backbench MHR Michael Danby was still spending taxpayers fund over ANZAC Day in France visiting the WW1 Monash Museum (See J Wire online). He is pictured with Department of Veterans Affairs Secretary Elizabeth Cosson (a former Army Major General).

    During WW1 Danby’s (real name Danziger) ancestors (grandfather, granduncles etc) were most likely in the Kaisers army fighting the 1st AIF and our other allies. I would have though his presence should more appropriately be at German WW1 cemeteries in France.

  23. Got a leaflet in my letterbox from the ALP candidature yesterday but despite that arts degree university education English may not have been a strong point as the leaflet has at least one spelling mistake and it is the word Macnamra (should be Macnamara). The mistake is the first dot point under the map. The leaflets paper does not look like recycled paper either, very glossy.

  24. Herald Sun reporting that Kate Ashmor is now under a section 44 cloud, as it seems she may be a dual citizen of Israel and Australia.

  25. Expat – what about the ALP candidate Josh Burns as he is Jewish too. I think Burns and Ashmor were both born in Australia.

  26. I will have to read the Herald Sun in the coffee shop at brunch on Friday but the stories partial clip online claims that Kate Ashmor’s father was born in Israel. Other relatives were from Poland/German before WW2 and after I read elsewhere.

    With so many candidates standing down from a number of parties for various reasons one has to wonder about multiculturalism and the lack of brain power of some candidates. Remember you candidates this is Australian not some overseas banana republic where incompetence and corruption is a way of life.

  27. Ashmor’s citizenship question isn’t specifically because she’s Jewish, it’s because her father is an Israeli and she may have citizenship by descent.

    Burns, as a Jew, has the right to make Aaliya and claim Israeli citizenship if he wants to, but doesn’t automatically have it from birth.

  28. Expat
    s44 does not require alien citizenship but only the right to citizenship to exclude an MP.
    No one seems to have raised the issue of changing S44.
    My understanding is that any Jew has the right to Israeli Citizenship therefore no Jew can sit in Australian Parliament. This is unacceptable but may be constitutional law which Parliament can not change. Therefore We need a change to Constitution or High Court may have to be called on to clarify.
    So as not to get myself into trouble I unequivocally state the Jews should have right to stand for Parliament be elected and take their seats.

    My problem with S 44 is that a lot of its interpretation is dependent on alien court decisions. North Korea could make my elected representative in-eligible to sit in Parliament by declaring that they are a citizen of North Korea. Both Greece and Red China extend citizenship and citizenship obligations on to descendants of their citizens.

  29. We should outlaw dual citizenship in Australia. When an alien takes out Australian citizenship he/she should acknowledge it via our future legislation that allegiance to another country is unlawful. If travelling overseas Australians, including new Australians, should travel use the Australian passport, which is good everywhere, and the foreign passport should be thrown in a draw and allowed to laps.

    This rubbish that only a alien national leader can cancel alien citizenship or you are a citizen of a alien country you were not born in is ridiculous. Many new Australian want to leave the old country and not cling to its medieval past. Some argue that dual citizenship is helpful in business so does this mean Australian with an Ozzie passport only are disadvantaged? What nonsense.

  30. @Andrew

    That’s kind of how it’s worded, but that’s not exactly how the High Court interpreted it. Under the interpretation of S44 confirmed by the courts last year, you actually have to *have* the citizenship (though it doesn’t matter whether you knew or not).

    A number of people are in parliament who would be eligible for foreign citizenship if they were to apply for it, but haven’t. This is how Canavan got off – anyone with any ancestors from modern Italy can claim Italian citizenship, so he is certainly entitled to do so if he wanted, but as it transpired the High Court decided he had never done so.

    You are correct that all Jews may automatically take Israeli citizenship if they choose – however, generally you need to make Aaliya (ie physically arrive in Israel) and declare as such to do so.

    Hence Burns being safe from S44.

  31. Also – your example of North Korea declaring someone a citizen isn’t actually necessarily a problem. If you’ve made a genuine effort to rid yourself of foreign citizenship, but were unsuccessful, you can still run.

    Case in point was Sam Dastayari – he spent over $20,000 trying to renounce Iranian citizenship, but Iran doesn’t recognise renunciation. Because he’d taken reasonable steps to at least attempt to renounce, he was deemed validly elected under S44.

  32. Adrian
    I agree that renunciation of alliegence to all other nations before citizenship is granted should be part of citizenship. This will not solve problem. Even when renunciation was part of citizenship ceremonies it did not stop some countries from arresting on entry citizens who had failed to complete their National Service. Greece was notable in this matter .
    Adrian is wrong that foreign leaders are not a part of this process. There are so many complicating factors that impact on this.

  33. The ALP leaflet is got on 09 May 19 had a photo of local identity “retired” Fr Bob Maguire (Church of Rome). Last year I saw him in a local café buying some meat pies, for his helpers I assume, to take away and I remarked to him Cardinal Pell is in trouble isn’t he. He hit me on the arm (not a punch but not a pat either) and was supportive of Pell being from a similar generation as the Cardinal. Pell is in gaol now so I got that correct didn’t I. I bet Fr McGuire regrets supporting an alleged paedophile hider like Pell and why the ALP candidate had him on his leaflet is a bit bazar too.

    Today I got a smaller Liberal leaflet with a heading “working to make life easier”. I thought the saying was “life was not meant to be easy” – Malcolm Fraser when PM.

  34. Speaking of PM quotes the best one was from Bob Hawke in the 1980’s when he said “by 1990 no Australian child will live in poverty”

  35. Adrian
    Would you like to know what happens to pedophiles in the future.? I am talking our next lifetimes 70 -200 years in the future .

  36. Adrain
    PM Quotes PJK when he met Rudd ” Can’t we find an embassy for that little c*#t “!!. Years later we made Rudd PM.

  37. In an election where Labor is set to form government it is very difficult to fathom Labor losing this seat.

  38. WD
    We should have found an embassy for both Rudd and Keating. The Equadorian Embassy in Canberra would be a good place for them along with Hanson Anning and the Greens.
    With that menagerie cats would have been the least of Ambassador’s problems. He would need to have a gallows built to hang them after they started to kill each other.

  39. Andrew Jackson
    Yeah. But isn’t it enjoyable to remind wayward friends, of who, & what they voted for. ?. Although i still have many unrepentant (friends), that still insist that Rudd “Saved” us all from the GFC !!. I often wonder how long it takes for real historical fact to overtake political myth ?

    Don’t understand why you would inflict your mob on PJK ?

  40. I got two Greens leaflets yesterday. One as a letterbox drop leaflet and one as an addressed envelope to my name.

  41. The Jewish website J-Wire has just published an article headed “Vote Josh Burns”. So much for independent online journalism. After 20 years of that dud Michael Danby one wonders what motivated that call from a nameless J-Wire newsdesk editor.

  42. There must have been a complaint from someone else to J-Wire as the J-Wire article mentioned in my last post has its titles changed to “Can Macnamara Remain Labor”? However the text in the J-Wire article has not changed.

  43. Check out the J-Wire article on Macnamara. Many online readers are getting concerned about the article and have made acid comments about the ALP too.

  44. Sad news about the death of former PM Bob Hawke but he wad 89 and unwell for sometime so it was not unexpected. His death will not affect the election though other that taking up some of the news coverage today (Friday 17 May 19). ABC radio interviewed some young people today about Hawke and most replied he could drink beer and was liked by Australians but not much else. Hawke as pre mobile phones and the internet.

    Got a robot phone call yesterday by someone claiming to be a nurse supporting the ALP so the ALP are still worried about the election result. She had an NZ accent so couldn’t the ALP find an Aussie nurse?

  45. If a voter dies before election day but after pre-polling has started and they have voted their vote still counts which is another good reason to vote early.

  46. Alternative would be to
    1 make all pre polls declaration votes
    or
    2 in the event of a prepoll voter subsequently dying
    Hold a bye-election

  47. Andrew – a by election if a candidate dies (or a count back as they do in council election) but not if voters die. A count back is a quicker and cheaper option to get a representative to Canberra and remember an election is about candidates not parties. If parties select a candidate who is not up to it physically or mentally that their problem.

  48. I checked out the Middle Park Library and Middle Park State School polling stations after lunch and they were pretty quiet. HTV being handed out by Labor, Liberals, Greens, Animal Justice and United Australia Party. Wallis had a poster up but nothing from O’Rourke, Rise Up Australia and Sustainable Australia.

    Friend of the ABC and Independent Guide for Climate Change had leaflets but there were just anti Liberal leaflets. I hate getting fake information from the left. No “Get Up” wankers present though.

Comments are closed.