Lingiari – Australia 2019

ALP 8.2%

Incumbent MP
Warren Snowdon, since 2001. Previously Member for Northern Territory 1987-1996, 1998-2001.

Geography
Lingiari covers the vast majority of the Northern Territory, with the exception of Darwin and Palmerston. The seat covers Katherine and Alice Springs, as well as many indigenous communities throughout the Territory.

Redistribution
Lingiari expanded to take in the eastern fringe of Darwin, which reduced the Labor margin from 8.4% to 8.2%.

History
The Northern Territory first elected a Member of the House of Representatives in 1922, but this person was only given full voting rights in 1968.

The seat was held by the Country Party and then the Country Liberal Party from then until 1983, before Labor and then the CLP each held the seat for one term, before Warren Snowdon won the seat for the ALP in 1987. Snowdon lost the seat for one term in 1996 before being returned for one more term in 1998.

The 2000 redistribution saw the Northern Territory gain a second seat for the first time, and the seats of Solomon, covering Darwin and Palmerston, and Lingiari, covering the rest, were created.

Snowdon has been elected in Lingiari six times.

Candidates

  • Jacinta Price (Country Liberal)

Assessment
Lingiari is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Warren Snowdon Labor 17,05639.8+0.039.8
Tina MacfarlaneCountry Liberal13,60531.7-6.531.9
Rob Hoad Greens 3,3057.7-0.17.7
Chris RightonShooters, Fishers and Farmers3,0617.1+7.17.0
Yingiya Mark GuyulaIndependent1,8544.3+4.34.1
Braedon EarleyIndependent1,8084.2+4.24.0
Regina MccarthyRise Up Australia1,4983.5+1.53.4
Alfred GouldIndependent4271.0-0.60.9
Peter FlynnCitizens Electoral Council2610.6-3.00.6
Others0.6
Informal3,6507.8

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Warren Snowdon Labor 25,04858.4+7.558.1
Tina Macfarlane Country Liberal 17,82741.6-7.541.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five areas. There are clusters of booths in the Alice Springs area, in Katherine and in areas surrounding Darwin, although Darwin itself is in the neighbouring seat of Solomon. The fourth area, “Outback” covers a number of remote booths. The “islands” group covers Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands – both far away from the Northern Territory included in Lingiari for electoral purposes. There are also a large number of votes cast through remote polling stations – more than in any of the other booth groupings. All of these remote booths have been grouped together.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in most areas, ranging from 52.5% in Katherine to 70.1% in the remote boths. The Country Liberal Party polled 51.5% in the area surrounding Darwin.

Voter groupALP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Remote70.113,78030.5
Darwin Surrounds48.56,75314.9
Alice Springs55.94,97211.0
Katherine52.51,7123.8
Outback65.31,4413.2
Islands80.35481.2
Other votes49.32,8416.3
Pre-poll52.213,18729.2

Two-party-preferred votes in Lingiari at the 2016 federal election

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8 COMMENTS

  1. It is worth reminding everyone that Snowdon once used a commonwealth, or private charter plane to get to some dog races, at public expense. For years afterwards, when he rose to speak (in parliament ). the libs would start howling (like dogs)!. Thus he has learnt my everlasting contempt. The contrast with Bronwyn’s helicopter ride is quite extraordinary ! ( simply in that no one will ever forget THAT one !).

    Having said all that, it would be good if Snowdon runs again because if he retires, he will effectively get a pay rise. That wonderful defined benefit Parliamentary Superannuation in play again.

    Wonderfull woman, & candidate that Jacinta Price is, she has no chance in such a solid Labor electorate. More is the pity.

  2. Snowdon’s 2PP margin in 2013 was only 0.88%. I suspect it blew out again in 2016 at least partly as a protest against the shambolic CLP government in the Territory.

    Snowdon has been reported as saying he plans to seek pre-selection again, and assuming a national swing to Labor, it is hard to see even a high-profile candidate like Price getting across the line. But I expect it to be reasonably close and maybe give her a base from which to take the seat next time if Snowdon does eventually depart.

  3. Armchair comments, but I wouldn’t underestimate Price. She has national profile, goodwill and with that, more ability than the average marginal seat candidate to raise money. Taken with Dean Ashley’s comments, I’d have thought this competitive.

  4. Turnbull visited Tennant Creek with Jacinta Price today in what seemed very much like an election whistle stop.

    They must be taking a serious run at this seat. Remembering that they will need to pick up new seats to retain government, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals are scoping out the 2 NT seats as possibilities now that Giles is out of the picture.

  5. ALP Hold, I really don’t see this changing hands unless the Coalition are to get another 2013 result for them. Reasonably safe unless Snowden messes up

  6. PM Dutton would have been suicide for the CLP in this seat.

    Turnbull actually started visiting the NT semi regularly, making me think the Liberals had hopes here. That’s all out the window now.

    ALP retain and it shows the walls really have closed in on the LNP

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