Lingiari – Australia 2019

ALP 8.2%

Incumbent MP
Warren Snowdon, since 2001. Previously Member for Northern Territory 1987-1996, 1998-2001.

Geography
Lingiari covers the vast majority of the Northern Territory, with the exception of Darwin and Palmerston. The seat covers Katherine and Alice Springs, as well as many indigenous communities throughout the Territory.

Redistribution
Lingiari expanded to take in the eastern fringe of Darwin, which reduced the Labor margin from 8.4% to 8.2%.

History
The Northern Territory first elected a Member of the House of Representatives in 1922, but this person was only given full voting rights in 1968.

The seat was held by the Country Party and then the Country Liberal Party from then until 1983, before Labor and then the CLP each held the seat for one term, before Warren Snowdon won the seat for the ALP in 1987. Snowdon lost the seat for one term in 1996 before being returned for one more term in 1998.

The 2000 redistribution saw the Northern Territory gain a second seat for the first time, and the seats of Solomon, covering Darwin and Palmerston, and Lingiari, covering the rest, were created.

Snowdon has been elected in Lingiari six times.

Candidates

Assessment
Lingiari is a reasonably safe Labor seat.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Warren Snowdon Labor 17,056 39.8 +0.0 39.8
Tina Macfarlane Country Liberal 13,605 31.7 -6.5 31.9
Rob Hoad Greens 3,305 7.7 -0.1 7.7
Chris Righton Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 3,061 7.1 +7.1 7.0
Yingiya Mark Guyula Independent 1,854 4.3 +4.3 4.1
Braedon Earley Independent 1,808 4.2 +4.2 4.0
Regina Mccarthy Rise Up Australia 1,498 3.5 +1.5 3.4
Alfred Gould Independent 427 1.0 -0.6 0.9
Peter Flynn Citizens Electoral Council 261 0.6 -3.0 0.6
Others 0.6
Informal 3,650 7.8

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Warren Snowdon Labor 25,048 58.4 +7.5 58.1
Tina Macfarlane Country Liberal 17,827 41.6 -7.5 41.7

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into five areas. There are clusters of booths in the Alice Springs area, in Katherine and in areas surrounding Darwin, although Darwin itself is in the neighbouring seat of Solomon. The fourth area, “Outback” covers a number of remote booths. The “islands” group covers Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands – both far away from the Northern Territory included in Lingiari for electoral purposes. There are also a large number of votes cast through remote polling stations – more than in any of the other booth groupings. All of these remote booths have been grouped together.

The ALP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in most areas, ranging from 52.5% in Katherine to 70.1% in the remote boths. The Country Liberal Party polled 51.5% in the area surrounding Darwin.

Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
Remote 70.1 13,780 30.5
Darwin Surrounds 48.5 6,753 14.9
Alice Springs 55.9 4,972 11.0
Katherine 52.5 1,712 3.8
Outback 65.3 1,441 3.2
Islands 80.3 548 1.2
Other votes 49.3 2,841 6.3
Pre-poll 52.2 13,187 29.2

Two-party-preferred votes in Lingiari at the 2016 federal election

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13 COMMENTS

  1. It is worth reminding everyone that Snowdon once used a commonwealth, or private charter plane to get to some dog races, at public expense. For years afterwards, when he rose to speak (in parliament ). the libs would start howling (like dogs)!. Thus he has learnt my everlasting contempt. The contrast with Bronwyn’s helicopter ride is quite extraordinary ! ( simply in that no one will ever forget THAT one !).

    Having said all that, it would be good if Snowdon runs again because if he retires, he will effectively get a pay rise. That wonderful defined benefit Parliamentary Superannuation in play again.

    Wonderfull woman, & candidate that Jacinta Price is, she has no chance in such a solid Labor electorate. More is the pity.

  2. Snowdon’s 2PP margin in 2013 was only 0.88%. I suspect it blew out again in 2016 at least partly as a protest against the shambolic CLP government in the Territory.

    Snowdon has been reported as saying he plans to seek pre-selection again, and assuming a national swing to Labor, it is hard to see even a high-profile candidate like Price getting across the line. But I expect it to be reasonably close and maybe give her a base from which to take the seat next time if Snowdon does eventually depart.

  3. Armchair comments, but I wouldn’t underestimate Price. She has national profile, goodwill and with that, more ability than the average marginal seat candidate to raise money. Taken with Dean Ashley’s comments, I’d have thought this competitive.

  4. Turnbull visited Tennant Creek with Jacinta Price today in what seemed very much like an election whistle stop.

    They must be taking a serious run at this seat. Remembering that they will need to pick up new seats to retain government, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals are scoping out the 2 NT seats as possibilities now that Giles is out of the picture.

  5. ALP Hold, I really don’t see this changing hands unless the Coalition are to get another 2013 result for them. Reasonably safe unless Snowden messes up

  6. PM Dutton would have been suicide for the CLP in this seat.

    Turnbull actually started visiting the NT semi regularly, making me think the Liberals had hopes here. That’s all out the window now.

    ALP retain and it shows the walls really have closed in on the LNP

  7. Is 91% TPP on West Island a record for Labor in the 2016 election? Kind of a curiosity that this result was at a booth much closer to Singapore than the rest of the electorate.

  8. This will be interesting Jacinta Price will have a good crack at this
    Now we will see conservatives put all there might behind this outstanding
    Aboriginal woman who genuinely will represent the interests of the territory
    and her people.Its about time . Wonder if her mum Bess has any more kids at home
    like Jacinta to run in Parkes in NSW She may just win this seat

  9. Greens will need to run strongly here in order for issues like fracking and other NT government intrigue not to hurt Snowdon. As long as people upset with territory Labor don’t see the CLP as a viable alternative, Snowdon (and Gosling) should be safe.

  10. Indigenous voters in NT aren’t entirely rusted on Labor but Price as a celebrity conservative will very little appeal to them.

  11. Australian misquoting the margin as 0.9 % . That was in 2013. Jacinta seems to be having a red hot crack. Rule of law seems to be under threat. Perhaps anything can happen ? With Snowdon it is certain nothing will happen

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