Higgins – Australia 2019

LIB 7.6% vs GRN

Incumbent MP
Kelly O’Dwyer, since 2009.

Geography
Higgins covers suburbs in the inner south-east of Melbourne. Its suburbs include South Yarra, Prahran, Toorak, Carnegie, Malvern, Glen Iris, Murrumbeena and Hughesdale. Most of the seat is covered by Stonnington LGA, as well as southern parts of Boroondara LGA and small parts of Glen Eira and Monash LGAs.

Redistribution
Higgins lost Windsor to the renamed seat of Macnamara, and gained Murrumbeena and Hughesdale from Hotham. It isn’t possible to precisely estimate the Liberal vs Greens margin for the new seat, but the closest estimate suggests a drop from 8% to 7.6%.

History
Higgins was first created in 1949 when the Parliament was expanded in size. Its first member was Harold Holt, who had previously been Member for Fawkner in the same part of Melbourne. Holt was a minister in the Menzies United Australia Party government at the beginning of the Second World War.

Holt returned to the ministry in 1949 as Minister for Immigration. He became Menzies’ Treasurer in 1958 and became Prime Minister upon Menzies’ retirement in 1966.

Holt disappeared in sensational circumstances in December 1967 while swimming at Cheviot Beach in Victoria. Higgins was won by new Prime Minister John Gorton in a 1968 by-election. Gorton had previously been a Senator and was required to move to the House of Representatives.

Gorton held the seat continously until the 1975 election. Following Malcolm Fraser’s accession to the Liberal leadership Gorton resigned from the Liberal Party and sat as an independent. At the 1975 election he stood for an ACT Senate seat and Higgins returned to the Liberal Party.

Roger Shipton won the seat in 1975 and maintained his hold on the seat until 1990, when he was challenged for preselection by Peter Costello. Costello held the seat from 1990 until his 2009 resignation, triggering a by-election.

The ensuing by-election became a contest between the Liberal Party’s Kelly O’Dwyer and the Greens candidate, prominent academic Clive Hamilton, as the ALP refused to stand a candidate. O’Dwyer won the seat comfortably, and was re-elected in 2010, and again in 2013. O’Dwyer was re-elected with a smaller 8% margin against the Greens in 2016.

Candidates
Sitting Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer is presumably running for re-election.

Assessment
Higgins is a reasonably safe seat – the Greens would need a big swing to win here, but there is probably potential for growth in Greens support.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kelly O’Dwyer Liberal 46,95352.0-2.451.6
Jason Ball Greens 22,87025.3+8.524.2
Carl Katter Labor 13,49514.9-9.116.5
Nancy BassettNick Xenophon Team2,0072.2+2.22.1
Eleonora GulloneAnimal Justice1,3441.5+1.51.6
Rebecca O’BrienMarriage Equality1,2651.4+1.41.3
Jessica TregearDerryn Hinch’s Justice Party1,2641.4+1.41.3
Robert KennedyLiberal Democrats1,0931.2+1.21.1
Others0.3
Informal3,5503.8

2016 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Redist
Kelly O’Dwyer Liberal 52,35958.057.6
Jason Ball Greens 37,93242.042.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Kelly O’Dwyer Liberal 54,79860.7+0.860.1
Carl Katter Labor 35,49339.3-0.839.9

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into four areas: central, north-east, south-east and west.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against the Greens) in three out of four areas, ranging from 53.2% in the west to 59.9% in the centre. The two-candidate-preferred vote was a tie in the south-east.

Labor’s primary vote ranged from 13.1% in the centre to 26.1% in the south-east.

Voter groupALP prim %LIB 2CP %Total votes% of votes
West14.153.215,03916.2
South-East26.150.014,26715.4
Central13.159.912,00013.0
North-East14.757.09,0299.8
Other votes16.061.619,32620.9
Pre-poll15.160.822,90924.7

Election results in Higgins at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (Liberal vs Greens) and Labor primary votes.


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Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.