Flynn – Australia 2019

LNP 1.0%

Incumbent MP
Ken O’Dowd, since 2010.

Geography
Central Queensland. Flynn covers Gladstone and comes close to covering the regional centres of Bundaberg and Rockhampton. It also covers the inland local government areas of Banana, Central Highlands and North Burnett, as well as parts of South Burnett.

Redistribution
No change.

History
Flynn was created for the 2007 election as a notionally National seat, taking parts of Maranoa, Capricornia and Hinkler. Capricornia has almost always been held by the ALP in recent decades, although the Nationals gained it for one term after both the 1975 and 1996 landslides. Maranoa has been held by the Nationals since the Second World War, while Hinkler’s shorter history has been dominated by the Nationals, except for two terms of the ALP holding the seat.

The 2007 redistribution saw Flynn created with a 7.7% margin for the Nationals, but a massive swing to the ALP saw the seat won by Chris Trevor by a slim margin.

In 2010, a 5.8% swing to the LNP saw Ken O’Dowd defeat Trevor. O’Dowd was re-elected in 2013 and 2016.

Candidates

  • Zac Beers (Labor)
  • Ken O’Dowd (Liberal National)

Assessment
Flynn is an extremely marginal seat and Labor will be hopeful of taking this seat. One Nation polled strongly in Flynn in 2016, and would also be hopeful of increasing support and breaking through into the top two.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ken O’Dowd Liberal National 32,29337.1-9.0
Zac Beers Labor 29,09433.4-0.1
Phil BakerOne Nation14,94817.2+17.2
Richard LoveKatter’s Australian Party2,9483.4-0.8
Craig Tomsett Greens 2,4162.8+0.6
Heather BarnettFamily First2,1732.5+1.0
Nathan Joel David FletcherIndependent1,9272.2+2.2
Duncan ScottIndependent8641.0+0.1
Jordan Ryan PukuIndependent4830.6+0.6
Informal5,7556.2

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Ken O’Dowd Liberal National 44,48051.0-5.5
Zac Beers Labor 42,66649.0+5.5

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas, along local government boundaries. Polling places in North Burnett and South Burnett council areas have been grouped together as ‘Burnett’. Polling places in the other five local government areas have been broken down by council area.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vot ein four out of six areas, with a vote ranging from 54.8% in Bundaberg to 66.3% in Burnett. Labor won 56.7% in Rockhampton and 61.4% in Gladstone.

One Nation polled strongly in Flynn, with a vote ranging from 14.7% in Gladstone to 22.6% in Bundaberg.

Voter groupON prim %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Rockhampton20.543.36,4517.4
Central Highlands18.357.86,3527.3
Bundaberg22.654.85,4876.3
Burnett16.266.35,2516.0
Banana16.862.33,5694.1
Gladstone14.738.617,48920.1
Other votes17.860.516,67319.1
Pre-poll16.448.225,87429.7

Election results in Flynn at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and One Nation primary votes.


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4 COMMENTS

  1. Zac Beers is contesting again for Labor.

    Ken O’Dowd’s fifteen minutes of fame when he suggested he could lead the post-Barnaby Nats and was greeted by bemused silence was one of the funnier moments of this year to date.

  2. It was amazing how this seat was down as a Labor gain with a margin of about 2% on election night and how much postal votes swung this seat back for an LNP hold!

  3. It is amazing to put this against Capricornia and see how hard this swung. It says something about the quality of the respective sitting members.

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