Durack – Australia 2019

LIB 11.1%

Incumbent MP
Melissa Price, since 2013.

Geography
North of Western Australia. Durack covers a majority of Western Australia’s landmass, stretching from the northern Wheatbelt outside of Perth, covering the coast all the way to the Northern Territory border. Major towns include Geraldton, Broome and Port Hedland.

History
Durack was created in 2010, out of northern parts of O’Connor and Kalgoorlie.

Kalgoorlie had previously swung between Labor and Liberal, and was held by the ALP’s Graeme Campbell from 1980.

Campbell was expelled from the ALP in 1995, and was re-elected in 1996.

Campbell lost to the Liberal Party’s Barry Haase in 1998.

Haase moved to Durack in 2010, and won a fifth term.

Haase retired in 2013, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Melissa Price, who was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
The Nationals have held ambitions to challenge for Durack, and managed to come second in 2013. This threat seems less credible now, and the Liberal Party is not in any real danger from Labor.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melissa Price Liberal 32,01141.7+3.6
Carol Martin Labor 19,86025.9+5.9
Lisa Cole Nationals 12,25716.0-7.4
Ian James Greens 7,71010.1+3.1
Mitchell SambellRise Up Australia2,8853.8+2.7
Grahame GouldAustralian Christians1,9662.6+1.3
Informal3,1223.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melissa Price Liberal 46,82361.1-4.0
Carol Martin Labor 29,86638.9+4.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas. Those in the Geraldton urban area have been grouped together. The rest of the electorate was split into five areas. From north to south, these are Kimberley, Pilbara, Gascoyne, Mid West and Wheatbelt.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all but one area, ranging from 52.5% in the Pilbara to 70.3% in the mid-west. Labor 54.4% in the Kimberley.

The Nationals came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.8% in the Kimberley to 22.4% in the mid-west.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 6.9% in the mid-west to 17.5% in the Kimberley.

Voter groupGRN prim %NAT prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Geraldton9.713.261.414,04518.3
Other votes10.015.958.912,36916.1
Pilbara10.511.352.59,53012.4
Kimberley17.57.845.66,5148.5
Mid West6.922.470.35,9807.8
Gascoyne9.818.861.12,9003.8
Pre-poll10.713.161.215,04519.6
Wheatbelt6.429.175.210,30613.4

Election results in Durack at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Nationals primary votes and Greens primary votes.


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21 COMMENTS

  1. The rumour is that former states nationals leader Brendon Grylls might run which would most definitely make the seat a WA nationals gain.

    No chance of Labor gain they are far too unpopular in rural WA due to the state government.

  2. The realignment of Kalgoorlie/Durack and O’Connor from a wheatbelt/mining +pastoral split into a north/south split turned one extremely safe Liberal seatand one swingy (but trending Liberal) seat into 2 safe Liberal seats. Labor has never had any chance on these boundaries.

  3. Johani Mamid is the Greens endorsed candidate btw, a Broome man, leads a team of rangers for Nyamba Buru Yawuru.

  4. “No chance of Labor gain they are far too unpopular in rural WA due to the state government.”

    I’d agree there’s no chance, but the unpopularity in rural areas is more in wheatbelt areas – where they typically burn ALP candidates at the stake. However looking at the numbers above, the Libs are already getting over 75% of the 2PP vote there. The reality is that doing unpopular things in these parts of the state doesn’t really do the ALP any harm, as they’re effectively invisible anyway.

    In other parts of the electorate, such as the Pilbara and Kimberley (and even Geraldton town), the ALP got huge swings toward them at the last state election, and I doubt that much has changed there.

    It might be interesting if Grylls ran though – he has huge name recognition, and his maverick nature (common in the WA Nats) might attract a bit of tactical voting from ALP voters. On the other hand, he tried to fight the mining industry at the last state election while holding the seat of Pilbara – and I doubt the mining industry have forgotten it.

  5. I hope Grylls runs, it would certainly be close if he does.

    If Grylls doesnt run I expect an easy Liberal retain but a sizeable swing against them.

  6. Melissa Price has got to be one of the worst Ministers in the Morrison Government..
    barely sighted as Environment Minister……she is now known as the Minister for MIA….Missing in Action

    the latest Newspoll is bad news for the Government…Labor ahead 53/47

  7. Price stumbles badly during question time…..
    has no idea on how to answer challenging questions..

    Morrison even has to help her with prompts….
    Price…….completely out of her depth

  8. Maybe it’s time to see what United Australia is all about. Let them have a
    Go, things can’t worse tha. What the 2 major parties have done

  9. The way to defeat Price would be if:
    * Greens target the Kimberley (Yes)
    * Labor target mining towns (Yes – Labor selected a Pilbara based candidate)
    * WA Nats target the Wheatbelt (Unclear – Nats candidate is Pilbara based)

    With Labor and Greens preferencing WA Nats over Liberals (unclear)

    I think Price will hang on as nobody seems to be trying very hard in the wheatbelt.

    I’m expecting some extremely strong results for Greens in the Kimberley over fracking, Price’s dismal performance as environment minister, and the Greens excellent choice of candidate.

  10. There will be bigs swings against price across the electorate. I expect everywhere but Geraldton to swing wildly. The WA Nats have been campaigning hard across the Central Wheatbelt thus I expect big swings to them there, their candidate is from the Pilbara thus swings to them there. The Greens will do well in the Kimberley (they normally do well, but will do very well this time around) One Nation will get around 8-10% in every part of the seat. The WA Party are targeting the Coral Coast (Exmouth, Carnarvon, Monkey Mia) I expect they could do well in this part of the seat. Ultimately I expect little change in the Labor vote.

    Despite wild swings on the primary vote, i don’t think Labor will be able to win the seat this time around the margin just seems to big. However, if the WA Nats can get into second place they will certainly win as they will get preferences from everyone.

  11. Melissa Price signs the approval for the groundwater management plans for Adani’s Carmichael mine.

    and to think, many people thought she was unable to write

  12. Geraldton came with 2% at the last state election……… but the wheat belt is too anti labour for alp win. Alp could well improve their vote in the Pilbara, Kimberly and Geraldton but this would not change the result in their favour….. now if the orientation were different a pastoral and agricultural seat then maybe

  13. It seems the Western Australia Party’s Gary Mounsey is trying really hard in this seat. Running a strong local campaign. He was out and about in Derby today pushing the idea of a strong local independent member. Could he perhaps pull off a suprise victory?

  14. If Durack was oriented like the old Division of Kalgoorlie then Labor would be in with some chance, but the Wheatbelt is too strong for the conservative side of politics. While the local MP has proven herself to be a fool, she has a large margin that should see her re-elected.

  15. these Boundaries are wrong…. O’Connor should be solely a Agricultural seat…. including all the wheat belt
    The other seat would be… Round Boulder Kalgoorie and the remainder of Durack less the wheat belt
    this would create… one safe liberal seat where the Nats maybe competitive and one liberal inclined
    Marginal to fairly safe seat.

  16. Yes Mick the old arrangement where O’Connor was the Wheatbelt seat and Kalgoorlie covered the Mining and Pastoral areas better met the communities of interest test.

    My understanding is that the reason this had to be changed is that the population dropped in the Division of Kalgoorlie requiring it to expand in size to an extent that O’Connor could not be logically drawn.

  17. Melissa Price has finally been released for an appearance at the Liberal party launch.

    the gaffe prone Price,who has been “missing in action”….has to be one of the most inept Ministers in Australian political history

    and Morrison says he wants to re-appoint her to the ministry in the unlikely chance of a COALition victory …I dont think so

  18. TPB
    There is a lot of competition for membership in that club !!. Worst thing is she would struggle to even be that remarkable. I’ll refrain from an obvious, & predictable sexist reflection

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