Durack – Australia 2019

LIB 11.1%

Incumbent MP
Melissa Price, since 2013.

Geography
North of Western Australia. Durack covers a majority of Western Australia’s landmass, stretching from the northern Wheatbelt outside of Perth, covering the coast all the way to the Northern Territory border. Major towns include Geraldton, Broome and Port Hedland.

History
Durack was created in 2010, out of northern parts of O’Connor and Kalgoorlie.

Kalgoorlie had previously swung between Labor and Liberal, and was held by the ALP’s Graeme Campbell from 1980.

Campbell was expelled from the ALP in 1995, and was re-elected in 1996.

Campbell lost to the Liberal Party’s Barry Haase in 1998.

Haase moved to Durack in 2010, and won a fifth term.

Haase retired in 2013, and was succeeded by Liberal candidate Melissa Price, who was re-elected in 2016.

Candidates

Assessment
The Nationals have held ambitions to challenge for Durack, and managed to come second in 2013. This threat seems less credible now, and the Liberal Party is not in any real danger from Labor.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melissa Price Liberal 32,01141.7+3.6
Carol Martin Labor 19,86025.9+5.9
Lisa Cole Nationals 12,25716.0-7.4
Ian James Greens 7,71010.1+3.1
Mitchell SambellRise Up Australia2,8853.8+2.7
Grahame GouldAustralian Christians1,9662.6+1.3
Informal3,1223.9

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Melissa Price Liberal 46,82361.1-4.0
Carol Martin Labor 29,86638.9+4.0

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into six areas. Those in the Geraldton urban area have been grouped together. The rest of the electorate was split into five areas. From north to south, these are Kimberley, Pilbara, Gascoyne, Mid West and Wheatbelt.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all but one area, ranging from 52.5% in the Pilbara to 70.3% in the mid-west. Labor 54.4% in the Kimberley.

The Nationals came third, with a primary vote ranging from 7.8% in the Kimberley to 22.4% in the mid-west.

The Greens primary vote ranged from 6.9% in the mid-west to 17.5% in the Kimberley.

Voter groupGRN prim %NAT prim %LIB 2PP %Total votes% of votes
Geraldton9.713.261.414,04518.3
Other votes10.015.958.912,36916.1
Pilbara10.511.352.59,53012.4
Kimberley17.57.845.66,5148.5
Mid West6.922.470.35,9807.8
Gascoyne9.818.861.12,9003.8
Pre-poll10.713.161.215,04519.6
Wheatbelt6.429.175.210,30613.4

Election results in Durack at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes, Nationals primary votes and Greens primary votes.


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5 COMMENTS

  1. The rumour is that former states nationals leader Brendon Grylls might run which would most definitely make the seat a WA nationals gain.

    No chance of Labor gain they are far too unpopular in rural WA due to the state government.

  2. The realignment of Kalgoorlie/Durack and O’Connor from a wheatbelt/mining +pastoral split into a north/south split turned one extremely safe Liberal seatand one swingy (but trending Liberal) seat into 2 safe Liberal seats. Labor has never had any chance on these boundaries.

  3. Johani Mamid is the Greens endorsed candidate btw, a Broome man, leads a team of rangers for Nyamba Buru Yawuru.

  4. “No chance of Labor gain they are far too unpopular in rural WA due to the state government.”

    I’d agree there’s no chance, but the unpopularity in rural areas is more in wheatbelt areas – where they typically burn ALP candidates at the stake. However looking at the numbers above, the Libs are already getting over 75% of the 2PP vote there. The reality is that doing unpopular things in these parts of the state doesn’t really do the ALP any harm, as they’re effectively invisible anyway.

    In other parts of the electorate, such as the Pilbara and Kimberley (and even Geraldton town), the ALP got huge swings toward them at the last state election, and I doubt that much has changed there.

    It might be interesting if Grylls ran though – he has huge name recognition, and his maverick nature (common in the WA Nats) might attract a bit of tactical voting from ALP voters. On the other hand, he tried to fight the mining industry at the last state election while holding the seat of Pilbara – and I doubt the mining industry have forgotten it.

  5. I hope Grylls runs, it would certainly be close if he does.

    If Grylls doesnt run I expect an easy Liberal retain but a sizeable swing against them.

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