Dickson – Australia 2019

LNP 1.7%

Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.

Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.

Dickson has often been considered a typical ‘mortgage belt’ seat and is also characterised by primarily being comprised of urban/bushland interface suburbs.

Redistribution
Dickson expanded slightly on its south-eastern edge, gaining Bridgeman Downs from Lilley. This slightly increased the LNP margin from 1.6% to 1.7%.

History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.

Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.

Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.

Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since, serving as a minister during the Howard government’s last term. In 2007 an 8.8% swing to the ALP saw Dutton hold the seat by just 217 votes. Dutton strengthened his hold on Dickson in 2010 with a 5.9% swing, and gained a further 1.6% swing in 2013.

Dutton has served as a senior minister in the Abbott/Turnbull coalition government, first in Health and then in Immigration/Home Affairs. He suffered a 5.1% swing at the 2016 election, but managed to win a seventh term.

Candidates

  • Peter Dutton (Liberal National)
  • Ali France (Labor)

Assessment
Dickson is a very marginal seat. Peter Dutton is a prominent minister and will presumably have a large campaign to hold on to the seat, but he will also be a prime target for defeat if Labor remains on track to win the election.

2016 result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Dutton Liberal National 40,51944.6-3.544.7
Linda Lavarch Labor 31,76934.9+3.635.0
Michael Berkman Greens 8,9719.9+3.59.8
Ray HutchinsonFamily First3,8684.3+2.54.2
Thor ProhaskaIndependent3,2173.5+3.53.4
Doug NicholsonLiberal Democrats2,5892.8+2.92.8
Informal3,1723.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%SwingRedist
Peter Dutton Liberal National 46,92251.6-5.151.7
Linda Lavarch Labor 44,01148.4+5.148.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 56% in the south-east and almost 60% in the west. Labor won 56.7% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east.

The Greens vote ranged from 9% in the north-east to 16% in the west.

Voter groupGRN %LNP 2PP %Total votes% of votes
North-East8.843.325,10926.6
South-East11.155.722,62624.0
West16.459.86,9917.4
Other votes9.153.917,35918.4
Pre-poll8.352.822,38323.7

Election results in Dickson at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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About the Author

Ben Raue is the founder and author of the Tally Room.If you like this post, please consider donating to support the Tally Room.