Dickson – Australia 2019

LNP 1.7%

Incumbent MP
Peter Dutton, since 2001.

Geography
Dickson covers the north-western suburbs of Brisbane and adjoining rural areas. It covers most of the former Pine Rivers Shire, now included in the Moreton Bay Council. Suburbs include Ferny Hills, Albany Creek, Strathpine, Petrie and Kallangur. Further west it includes areas such as Dayboro, Mount Samson and Samford Village.

Dickson has often been considered a typical ‘mortgage belt’ seat and is also characterised by primarily being comprised of urban/bushland interface suburbs.

Redistribution
Dickson expanded slightly on its south-eastern edge, gaining Bridgeman Downs from Lilley. This slightly increased the LNP margin from 1.6% to 1.7%.

History
Dickson was created for the 1993 election, though it was not filled until a supplementary election a month after the general election following the death of an independent candidate during the campaign. It was won for the ALP by Michael Lavarch, who transferred to the seat from Fisher, which he had represented since 1987, defeating the Liberal candidate, future Queensland state Liberal Party leader Dr Bruce Flegg.

Lavarch served as Attorney-General in the Keating government, but was defeated in the 1996 landslide by Liberal Tony Smith.

Smith lost the Liberal endorsement for the 1998 election and recontested the seat as an Independent. A leakage of preferences from his 9% primary vote presumably assisted the narrow, 176-vote victory by ALP star recruit, former Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot.

Kernot was defeated in 2001 by the Liberals’ Peter Dutton, who has held the seat ever since, serving as a minister during the Howard government’s last term. In 2007 an 8.8% swing to the ALP saw Dutton hold the seat by just 217 votes. Dutton strengthened his hold on Dickson in 2010 with a 5.9% swing, and gained a further 1.6% swing in 2013.

Dutton has served as a senior minister in the Abbott/Turnbull coalition government, first in Health and then in Immigration/Home Affairs. He suffered a 5.1% swing at the 2016 election, but managed to win a seventh term.

Candidates

Assessment
Dickson is a very marginal seat. Peter Dutton is a prominent minister and will presumably have a large campaign to hold on to the seat, but he will also be a prime target for defeat if Labor remains on track to win the election.

2016 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Peter Dutton Liberal National 40,519 44.6 -3.5 44.7
Linda Lavarch Labor 31,769 34.9 +3.6 35.0
Michael Berkman Greens 8,971 9.9 +3.5 9.8
Ray Hutchinson Family First 3,868 4.3 +2.5 4.2
Thor Prohaska Independent 3,217 3.5 +3.5 3.4
Doug Nicholson Liberal Democrats 2,589 2.8 +2.9 2.8
Informal 3,172 3.4

2016 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing Redist
Peter Dutton Liberal National 46,922 51.6 -5.1 51.7
Linda Lavarch Labor 44,011 48.4 +5.1 48.3

Booth breakdown

Booths have been divided into three areas. Most of the population lies on the urban fringe along the eastern edge of the seat. These booths have been split between north-east and south-east. The remaining booths have been grouped as ‘west’.

The Liberal National Party won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in two out of three areas, with 56% in the south-east and almost 60% in the west. Labor won 56.7% of the two-party-preferred vote in the north-east.

The Greens vote ranged from 9% in the north-east to 16% in the west.

Voter group GRN % LNP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
North-East 8.8 43.3 25,109 26.6
South-East 11.1 55.7 22,626 24.0
West 16.4 59.8 6,991 7.4
Other votes 9.1 53.9 17,359 18.4
Pre-poll 8.3 52.8 22,383 23.7

Election results in Dickson at the 2016 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and Greens primary votes.

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44 COMMENTS

  1. Dutton has a high profile but has also been campaigning inn electorate. HE ran a Seniors Expo in the Community Centre adjacent to his office. Well run bringing in potential Business Suppliers and large number of e-mail contacts.. He is not anywhere near as unpopular as media attempt to portray him. No doubt he would not have a hope of winning in LIlley or Griffith but Dickson is marginal seat .
    No doubt that this election ill be a Taxation election which will favour Coalition.

    ALP Taxation policy will bight in Dickson. Demography is precisely those who will be hurt by ALP’s Taxation Tax Credits removal. i.e. Not Wealthy not poor retired and on a part pension. Dickson is a public service / retied public service electorate .

    HIs one biggest risk is Boat Arrivals.

    I worked in electorate from 1987 to 2010 and have lived in one of the two adjoining electorates since 1988.

    18 Months out I predict Dutton will hold by narrow margin.

    His weakness is lack of local activity a problem that all cabinet ministers have but this is made up for in National attention that he gets.

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson@hotkey.net.au

  2. The result would depend on how big the swing to Labor is in Queensland, if it is a big swing Dutton would definitely lose the seat.

  3. I can confirm that the Dickson campaign has already started.

    Ali France’s Twitter [@alifrance5] has pictures of her campaign doing roadsides and such.

    Meanwhile from the LNP side we’ve already received our first attack flyer. [https://i.imgur.com/9rQZ4ma.jpg] Oh, and Dutton’s usual Anzac Day flyer, though I imagine most of that will be identical across the country.

  4. Benedict Coyne is the Greens candidate.

    Not much electoral material through the letterbox yet. One thing from GetUp a week or so ago featuring the infamous bad-lighting photo of Dutton. Seems like my corner of the electorate is one of the least volatile parts.

  5. Ben Raue would it be possible to add state electorate boundaries as a layer to the maps?

    I think the main overlapping state seats are Kurwongbah and Pine Rivers; both Labor held with reasonably strong margins. Pine Rivers was a key LNP target at the state election but Labor picked up a 2% swing.

    All that’s to say that the votes are there for Labor to win, and the 2016 campaign by no means “tapped out” the vote.

    Labor are running big here as a typical “marginal seat’ and still will if Dutton moves to a safe seat.

    Predicting an ALP gain; the biggest scalp of the election.

  6. One would expect Labor to run a very offensive campaign here purely for the sake of unseating a high profile minister.

    My current verdict is a fairly narrow result tipped slightly in Labor’s favour.

  7. There has been Speculation but not likely that Mr. Dutton will challenge Turnbull for leadership over some Energy policy. If true, Dutton is more far right then Turnbull hes an Abbot style politician so if he becomes PM its very likely Mr Dutton will join Stanley Bruce and John Howard and become the 3rd Prime minister to lose his seat in an election. I could imagine him doing even worse than Turnbull. Unlikely that he becomes Pm but possible. All speculation for now

  8. I now believe that Dutton is the *only* credible pre-election challenger – for the simple reason that everyone else is in a safe seat, and is probably more looking to their position after the election.

    Dutton, on the other hand, stands a strong chance of losing his seat.

    Being PM might just save him in Dickson and would of course necessitate a parachuting if he lost Dickson but they won overall. Win/win for him either way.

    Not being PM and getting parachuted post-election seems to be a rather unlikely occurrence. Further, I imagine it would only happen if the LNP in Queensland overwhelmingly wanted him to challenge…

  9. If Turnbull thinks his leadership is truly under threat, he’ll call an election.

    For every seat the Liberals could save in Queensland by switching to Dutton, there would be at least one “small-l” seat that becomes a total write off. It will be a question of which seats they want to save. The fact that Dutton is the only leadership contender based in Queensland says it all to me.

  10. Maybe Dutton challenges wins Turnbull resigns causes a by-election then the candidate for Wentworth is Dutton

  11. BREAKING NEWS: Dutton loses spill 35-48 But says will not rule out doing it again near future, I think Dutton would do worse than turnbull in the election due to him being more conservative (voters may see him as another Tony abbot) And trash him in the election. What would be interesting is will he hold his seat? If this was to go on

  12. Given Dutton’s prominent role in the destabilisation, without the resulting payoff of actually becoming leader, you’d have to think his place in parliament has become even more endangered.

  13. Dutton knew he was mostly going to lose his seat, the only thing he thought might save was a prime ministerial incumbency. He tried, and it didn’t work out.

    My money is on him to lose Dickson whenever the next election is.

  14. Not even sure Dutton is going to contest the way things are going.

    This will be a “Safe Labor Seat” if he does recontest and GetUp don’t put their resources in other seats.

  15. We have a new race today.

    Dutton is done for unless he moves to another electorate (which I believe him resigning from politics altogether is more likely). Being Prime Minister was his last chance at saving himself here and he blew it.

  16. Ali France had street stall outside Bunnings at Bald Hills this morning.3 A frames with red shirt attendant. Dutton’s shenanigans this week will have done him little harm.
    Dickson adjoins Longman and same demographic forces will be in play.Electricity prices will and reliability will cut more ice than climate change with the electorate’s voters.
    Feature of electorate is too few jobs with virtually nothing but service sector jobs available.
    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  17. Interesting that Dutton’s talents, qualities, accomplishments, & abilities seem so unappreciated. What would we think without any personal experience of him, & just examining his CV, & history ?.

    One Nation running in Dickson have made things almost impossible for Dutton. He will go down fighting. However if i were him, i’d have a good rest, reinvent, & family time. Then if there is fire in the belly, have a crack at being the next QLD Premier.

  18. “Dutton’s shenanigans this week will have done him little harm.”

    @Andrew Jackson

    You are kidding if you think that is the case. The events of last week have made the coalition look like a divided rabble and Peter Dutton has come out the biggest loser because he missed out on the biggest prize as PM believing this was the best strategy of retaining his seat.

    It will take a miracle for the coalition to win the next election. Problem with Dutton is the same problem with modern politics in general. MP’s more concerned about holding their seats at any cost rather then caring about the national interest.

  19. Unlikely to win, yes but walloped? I’m not so sure. Labor were looking at annihilation when Rudd replaced Gillard, yet he managed to lead them to a significant, yet much reduced defeat in 2013. I expect something similar to happen for the government.

  20. Thinking about it, I don’t even think Dutton not recontesting will be able to save the seat.

    It’s such a marginal seat that will likely be the focus of a lot of media attention as one of the “key seats” of the election, Dutton or no dutton. GetUp may lose some of the wind from their sails, but they will likely still spend resources in marginal seats.

    I am putting losing Dickson in the “inevitable” category, and with that I have no idea what the LNP’s path to victory will look like. I’m not even sure what they’ll say to the media when asked what seats they are hoping to win to hold off the ALP (maybe Lindsay and Bean).

  21. Sportsbet has this seat at Labor $1.25 and Liberals $3.50 in which are very ominous signs for Dutton considering Sportsbet is not exactly giving away all the marginal seats to Labor in Queensland as favorites.

    You would have to think someone knows something on the internal polling for the odds to be leaning that way

  22. Surely this would be insider trading? And surely the bookies would be alert to this. Bookies make money no matter what the result. My inclination is that Dutton is in trouble but this is because of Newspoll General trend and Dutton’s understandable lack of involvement with Dickson issues.
    Andrew Jackson

  23. As a longtime conservative voter, I’m now in a difficult position. Bill Shorten is an obnoxious, untrustworthy individual (as demonstrated in the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd fiasco). Yet Dutton was the driving force behind the new cyber security laws. Has everyone forgotten the Telco Data Retention laws introduced only last year? The government knows who you called, from where and when. It’s all logged for a minimum of two years. Now Dutton has successfully introduced laws that mean the government can have unfettered access to your private messages, all supported by Labor! The trigger was the madman in Melbourne that stabbed three men, killing one. May the poor man rest in piece however more people died on the roads this morning. More people will commit suicide today. Such a knee jerk reaction and slowly the people are having their freedoms eroded. Ironically the same problem the government accuses the Chinese of perpetrating on it’s own people.

  24. John Ireland
    If both major parties are so objectionable look elsewhere and put Majors last. What is vital is that Govt in power does not have control of Senate. Extremist versions of major parties Greens in case of ALP and Australian Conservatives or Lib Dems in case of Coalition are not a break on the Major Parties in power but the likes of Katter, DLP, Country Party are even Clive Palmer is in middle on most issues. If you stick to long standing conservative voting pattern make sure that Senate is a break on the governments uncontrolled power.
    In effect your Senate vote is more important than House Vote.
    Andrew Jackson

  25. John Ireland
    Listening to Bill Shorten at ALP Federal Conf it is very clear that he is heading for a landslide. Therefore your Senate vote will be vital to ensure that the clappers at this Conf do not have too much control over
    him. Shorten will win by a landslide unless Liberals return to the economic policies of Menzies. Including:
    Compulsory Centalised Concilliation and Arbitration
    Govt owned Enterprises
    Govt owned and operated coal fired power stations
    Centralised marketing of agricultural products
    Tariff protection of Australian industry.
    Liberals will be slaughtered unless they reject the policies of neo-liberalism.
    Dickson will be a part of this carnage. Dutton needs to resign from cabinet and concentrate on door knocking if he wants a job in June 2019.
    Andrew Jackson

    Andrew Jackson
    apjackson2@bigpond.com

  26. ALP candidate Ali France Facebook page states that ALP had 18 street stalls in electorate this morning.things are certainly hotting up. My feeling Dickson will go to ALP unless Libs have a hat to pull out of bag or Shorten blows up his Union -Labour campaign. Little sign of this Shorten now supporting Libs and 90% of Australians over Australia Day. Leaving Greens clinging to a minority position .
    Andrew Jackson2@bigpond.com

  27. ‘The only necessity for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing’…Couldn’t be a more fitting statement for when it comes to voting. I am (really not) surprised how many people switch off when it comes to filling out the ballot papers and their inclination to vote for one of the 3 major duds (Lib, Lab and watermelons) because they feel the minor parties ‘just don’t have the numbers’ to form a viable coalition. It’s simple intimidation really, and a lack of conviction and understanding to how important votes count (esp. Senate). For me it’s principle. Regardless of the numbers, if you have strong belief and faith in a particular party, then you sure as hell will put them #1.

    The trick is simple. Research not only the parties, but the candidates themselves. If you get a consistent tally where each candidate is grouped in their parties, then you can use that to vote above the line. This gives it a more holistic view, as opposed to just an individual one. Otherwise if the candidate preferences (according to their party) are fragmented, then you will vote below the line.

  28. Suggested campaign slogans for Dutton

    I WAS ALMOST PM……TRUST ME
    GLOBAL WARMING….ITS GOD’s FAULT
    AN AU PAIR for EVERY HOME
    DON’T BE SCARED….I WILL SAVE YOU
    I DON’T LIKE LABOR

  29. Great article in the SMH/The Age today on Ali France,Labor candidate for Dickson

    Dutton has a real challenge on his hands

    have a sense that the voters of Dickson will be waiting for Dutton in May to deliver a very strong message….”Pack your Bags”

  30. Have just driven through Longman, Petrie, Dickson and Ryan. Only place where activity wa visible was Dickson. 2 Large ALP (France) street stalls on Gympie Rd adjacent to even larger Liberal (Dutton ) stalls wthe a single Green A Frame adjacent. An additional Solo Liberal on South Pine Road. Clearly all parties see Dickson as a key seat.
    If I were managing ALP campaign I would avoid resourcing Dickson so avoid attention to Refugee issue.
    The fact that those parts of Longman Petrie and Ryan that I drove through were campaign activity free 3 1/2 months from an election means major parties are not yet as hyped up as media imply.

  31. “If I were managing ALP campaign I would avoid resourcing Dickson so avoid attention to Refugee issue.”

    Ha! Your a former Liberal member right? Oh please Labor avoid putting resoucres into a winnable seat just because Peter Dutton is a headkicker is lame. In fact it’s the opposite because he is such polarizing figure that campaigners are determined to get him out.

    Actually I don’t see any evidence it’s getting any traction the medivac issue with Galaxy poll has Labor ahead 52-48 statewide in QLD taken after the vote.

    Newscorpse in its biased bigoted coverage is certainly doing all it can to get Liberals across the line though.

    There was a article in the Guardian while ago that suggested Labor were better chance in Dickson then it was in Petrie. Dickson is definitely in play and Labor will be going full throttle in this seat.

  32. No political night watchman I reject Liberal economics completely . I am a Chester- Belloc distributist. I reject the Liberal parties lack of a spine on social issues. I support the criminalisation of prostitution, prostitution and sodomy. I support the regulation of economy in the interests of Social Justice. In 47 years of political life I have never voted Liberal once. I been anything but a Liberal supporter since Malcolm Fraser. Problem I face is that ALP is now more right wing than Liberal Party was in 1970’s. My history as a DLP candidate along with my support for Bob Katter is anything but secret. No I am not a Liberal however what I am saying is that those who voted in ALP Caucus to weaken the regfugee legislation are working to assist Liberal Party. Personally I have no problem with Shorten’s position on refugees but I know that Australian electorate are as capable of being whipped up asGerman voters were in the early 1930’s. I am Machiavellian enough to know that electorate do not follow my moral principles.
    Best thing ALP can do is keep going with the Shorten campaign strategy. I still do not know if I will preference Liberals or ALP higher but whichever is my final decision I know I will regret the decision.

  33. Why do you seriously think Dutton will keep this Andrew? I mean of the history of this seat, It should be going Labour (It didn’t in 2007) But i contained some of the hinterland somerset and more deep parts of D’aguilar, But now it doesn’t have those, In 2010 it was even drawn in Labour’s Favor it just couldn’t resist the Liberal swing, While in 2001 the Tampa affair might have been a factor, I actually disagree, I think 9/11 flipped this seat in 2001. Had 9/11 Not happend it would have either stayed ALP until 2010 or 2013, And Dutton wouldn’t be minister today. Indeed he was that worried losing in 2010 he tried to contest a Gold Coast seat, Yet Karen Andrews beat him for the selection. So this will be a Labour gain, I personally wouldn’t rule out Dutton running for state politics next year if he loses here as expected.

  34. Whilst I disagree with Andrew that LAB should NOT resource a Dickson campaign, I do see where he is coming from in that it would put a massive spotlight on the seat and whilst it WILL cause LIBs to redirect major resources to try and salvage Dutton, this will also be the case for LAB who are in the position of needing to win more seats.

    The contest in itself, given Dutton’s profile and the scant margin, will already make this a key seat and attract public attention. LAB should support and resource the campaign in Dickson but not to the extent of giving it primary focus at the expense of the (many) other marginals in Queensland. Dutton has a lot of excess baggage on which he can be attacked but making refugee policy “front and centre” is actually giving him an opportunity to strike a chord with the electorate on an issue that most likely resonates in his favour.

  35. Daniel if you look at my comments on this site you will see that nearly six months ago I predicted an ALP win. Today’s post stated it is still in play but my prediction is ALP win. I just think that by drawing attention to Dutton this will draw attention to boats refugees and immigration. These issues will lose ALP votes outside the inner city. By coasting in Dickson they will win it but might gain a number of other provincial and outer suburban seats.
    Looking at the posts above I have been accused of being a covert liberal and a Labor stooge. An indication that I am stuck in middle.
    Dutton will lose unless Overall Liberal percentage votes rises and I don’t think this is going to occur. Dutton is a gonner. His only hope resign from cabinet and start local campaigning 18 hours a day till election. I even if this’s happens I think ALP will win this seat.
    .

  36. @Daniel

    “I personally wouldn’t rule out Dutton running for state politics next year if he loses here as expected.”

    Interesting theory. The problem with that is there is only four seats the LNP hold in Brisbane. I can’t imagine any of them making way for Peter Dutton. Espcially Tim Mandar who is in Duttons neck of the woods in the seat of Everton.

    Doesn’t Dutton own a house on the Gold Coast? He might do a David Crisafulli and shop around for a safe federal LNP seat on the Gold Coast. He already tried to parachute there before the 2010 federal election as you mentioned.

    Its not uncommon Mal Brough landed the safe seat of Fisher after he lost the marginal seat of Longman at the 2007 federal election.

  37. Ali France’s Facebook page states she had 25 street stalls yesterday. If nothing else it shows that there is a strong desire by some in community to get rid of Dutton.
    I suspect that a lot of this is Get Up inner city types deigning to go bush to Strathpine and they will soon lose interest in back streets so that they can concentrate on areas within the inner suburbs. After all in Dickson they might have to talk to someone who thinks that job is in a factory or warehose rather than an intrusion between smashed avocado, cafe au lait and some dive in the Valley. It will be difficult keeping up the pretence that family matters when one flits from one night stand to one night stand. All of Dickson is a foreign land to Get Up types. My feeling is that the workforce will burn out.

    Ali France is working hard. However Bill Shorten’s move this week from class warfare to Chamberlain style appeasement of Green un-restrained migrant inflows has consequences and Dickson is one of the places it will bite hardest.
    The Saturday morning carpet baggers from New Farm need to understand that a Middle Eastern refugee is a competitor and wage threat to an unemployed bloke with a family scraping an existence in outer Brisbane.
    Bob Katter hit the nail on the head this week stating that Shorten has made a big mistake comparing it to mistake made by Beasley in 2007.
    It could be the mistake that costs the ALP government.
    Dutton must be thanking his lucky stars that he Shorten has joined his Dickson campaign staff.

  38. Re Paladin………. this should be referred to the new Federal icac….. dodgy contracter……….. only one applicant for the tender……paid more than services worth……… as company did not have adequate resources to perform services of the contract paid advance money…… money supposedly linked to png pm……..this is so bad…….. Mr Dutton had nothing to do with the contract either this is a lie…. or if the truth shows gross incompetence…….. read far, true crime weekly , smh , independent Australia….. this smells to high heaven……………….

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