Collie-Preston – WA 2013

ALP 3.8%

Incumbent MP
Mick Murray, since 2008. Previously Member for Collie 2001-2005, Collie-Wellington 2005-2008.

 

Map of Collie-Preston’s 2008 and 2013 boundaries. 2008 boundaries appear as red line, 2013 boundaries appear as white area. Click to enlarge.

Geography
South West.  Collie-Preston lies to the south of Perth, covering the Capel, Collie and Dardanup local government areas. The coal-mining town of Collie is the largest population centre in the electorate.

Redistribution
Collie-Preston previously covered the Donnybrook-Balingup local government area, and this area was transferred to Warren-Blackwood in the redistribution. This increased the ALP’s margin from 1% to 3.8%.

History
The seat of Collie-Preston is the successor to the seat of Collie, which existed under that name from 1904 until the name was changed to Collie-Wellington in 2005 and then Collie-Preston in 2008.

The seat was held by Labor continuously for eighty-one years from 1908 until 1989.

In 1989, the seat was by the National Party’s Hilda Turnbull. Turnbull defeated Labor candidate Mick Murray in 1993 and 1996. In 2001, Murray defeated Turnbull by 34 votes.

In 2005, Murray was re-elected to the renamed seat, and a combination of a friendly redistribution and a 6.7% swing saw him hold the seat with a 9.3% margin.

Most of Murray’s margin was wiped out in the 2008 redistribution, but Murray held on with a small positive swing, leaving him with a 1% margin.

Candidates

Assessment
Mick Murray has demonstrated a strong personal vote in Collie-Preston over the last decade. This could potentially help him hold onto his seat, but a swing to the Liberal Party will likely overwhelm the seat.

2008 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mick Murray ALP 8,439 41.0 -1.3
Steve Thomas LIB 8,260 40.1 +2.4
Richard Chapman GRN 1,802 8.8 +2.7
Keith Hopper FF 1,534 7.5 +4.6
Wayne Barnett CDP 548 2.7 +1.2

2008 two-candidate-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Mick Murray ALP 10,494 51.0 +0.1
Steve Thomas LIB 10,083 49.0 -0.1

 

Polling booths in Collie-Preston at the 2008 WA state election. Collie in green, Capel in orange, Dardanup in blue.

Booth breakdown
Collie-Preston covers the entirety of three local government areas, and booths have been split between these three areas.

The easternmost local government area of Collie largely consists of a series of booths in the Collie town area. The other two council areas consist of a series of rural booths. The three areas are roughly the same size in terms of votes cast.

The Liberal Party won a majority of the primary vote in Capel, and a larger primary vote in Dardanup. These results, however, were offset by a massive Labor majority in the Collie area, with a total Labor primary vote of almost 76%.

Voter group ALP % LIB % GRN % Total votes % of ordinary votes
Dardanup 34.87 41.10 7.88 4,973 35.18
Capel 27.41 51.51 10.31 4,888 34.58
Collie 75.96 16.11 3.37 4,276 30.25
Other votes 38.78 40.46 11.18 4,115

Labor primary votes in Collie-Preston at the 2008 WA state election.

Liberal primary votes in Collie-Preston at the 2008 WA state election.