QLD 2015 – could Pauline Hanson win?

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TLDR – Yes, she could, but it’s going to be close.

On Saturday night, it was a minor story that Pauline Hanson had polled quite highly in the south-east Queensland seat of Lockyer, winning 27.3% of the primary vote, ahead of Labor but 6% behind sitting Liberal National MP Ian Rickuss, who polled 33.7%.

Because Hanson didn’t run in 2012, the ECQ on election night conducted an indicative two-party-preferred count between Labor and the LNP. This meant we didn’t have any idea how preferences would split between the LNP and Hanson, who is running again for One Nation.

Late this afternoon the ECQ started posting results of a new two-candidate-preferred (2CP) count between Hanson and Rickuss, and it has Pauline Hanson leading in the count.

There are 32 regular booths in Lockyer, in addition to a variety of prepoll centres, and postal and absentee votes. So far, 2CP results have only been released for five booths, which all are favourable to Hanson.

While Hanson so far has polled 27.3% across Lockyer, she has polled 34.1% in the five booths where preferences have been distributed. The LNP’s vote is 2.2% lower in these five booths, and the Labor vote is 3.6% lower.

In addition, there are large numbers of postal, pre-poll and absentee votes, which should favour the major parties. These votes are likely to strengthen the LNP position.

But what would happen if you took the preference flows from these five booths and applied them to the remaining primary votes that have been counted so far?

CandidatePartyPrimary, so far2CP, so farPrimary, total2CP, projected
Ian Rickuss Liberal National 1,3731,7738,59511,238
Pauline HansonOne Nation1,4892,1386,97411,262
Steve Leese Labor 9316,366
David NeuendorfKatter’s Australian3221,867
Clare Rudkin Greens 127917
Craig GunnisPalmer United129820

In short, the result would be extremely close. Preferences so far have flowed 26.5% LNP, 43% Hanson and 30.5% exhausted.

This would result in Hanson polling 11,262 votes, and Rickuss polling 11,238 – a gap of 24 votes. That’s a lot smaller than Hanson’s current lead. She’s currently sitting on 54.7% of the two-candidate-preferred vote – my model gives her 50.05%.

Having said that, we don’t know if preferences will flow the same way. 61.7% of preferences distributed so far are Labor votes, but this will increase to 63.9%. Presumably Labor votes will not be quite as favourable to Hanson as KAP and PUP votes.

There have also been updates in a number of other seats today. I’ll post an update on my close seats post later tonight, so keep an eye out.

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22 COMMENTS

  1. Wait. Wait. Wait. Even if we assume that all PUP and KAP votes flow to ON over the LNP, that’s still only 37%. Which means those preferences must come from Labor/Green voters and exhausted preferences. Does this mean that Labor voters were so disenchanted by the LNP that they preferenced ON ahead of the LNP? Or were voters lazy and put only a ‘1’ next to Labor, exhausting their preferences?

    This is what you get when you don’t vote properly!

  2. The federal cross benches are making parliament interesting as will Hanson (if she wins) along with the Katter MP’s and an independent, I think, in Qld.

    As an aside I noticed on TV last week that Victoria’s former independent elected in 1999, Craig Ingram, along with two other independents, is now in the NT lobbying for local issues. These 3 MP’s sided with Bracks to get them into government.

  3. Well a Hanson win might be the final nail in the coffin for the LNP. Getting to 45 would then depend on the rather unwieldy cross-bench combination of Hanson, KAP and Foley.

  4. Hanson was a disendorsed Liberal of Oxley, I think, when the Howard government was about to been elected in 1996. She has no love for the Liberals nor I assume the LNP now I would have thought.

  5. Hanson WILL NOT support the ALP. They wouldn’t appeal to her twisted logic on immigrants and Muslims. She’s a clown and not just her hair.

  6. She has to vote in the parliament with the ALP or NLP unless she is absent outside. It depends on the issue but why wouldn’t she support the leading party so far (ALP) to get influence with that government

  7. The two Katter MP’s plus the Independent said on TV this evening that they would NOT be helping the NLP to become the government.

  8. If Hanson wins off preferences from Labor voters, they’ll once again show what they think of the directives of the faceless Labor hacks. I still can’t see it happening, however.

  9. Ms Hansen if elected would take one seat off the LNP what she would do in parliament would largely be irrelevant

  10. In the booth I scrutineered, Rosewood, Pauline got at least 25 second preferences from Labor who polled 125 votes. I don’t know how many went to LNP and how many were exhausted, but almost all of them were where Pauline was number two. They were moving the voting slips so fast I could not count votes where Pauline was 3 . 4 or 5 and whether she was ahead of LNP on those votes. I think I counted about 3 where Pauline was not number two but was ahead of LNP

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