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With Bailey having quit as Transport Minister (likely jumping before he was pushed, according to the newspapers) and things not looking great for Labor in opinion polls, could this seat be less safe than last election’s results suggest? It did fall in the 2012 blue tide, but nowadays the threat to Labor in Brisbane has a different colour. There’s no overlap between this seat and the federal seat of Griffith, but given how far south the Greens were able to achieve sizeable swings in 2022, you’d imagine they’ll have their eyes on Miller, now that Bailey is in a weaker position. It’s ambitious, but so was the idea of defeating Jackie Trad in South Brisbane.
This is a target seat for the Greens but it’s just too much of a stretch. I can see a scenario whereby the LNP finish third, Greens second and Labor first on primaries.
If that eventuates, assuming the LNP preferences Labor ahead of the Greens, it’ll be a very easy win for Mark Bailey. If they want to shake things up and make it tough for him, they could opt to preference the Greens here.
Either way, any movement in the Greens primary vote will be at the expense of Labor.
PRP, why do you believe the statewide swing against Labor will not eventuate enough here to knock them out of first on primary?
@PRP I agree, too much of a stretch for The Greens this time around. Mark Bailey should retain this given his popularity as a local MP, the buffer between ALP and LNP primary votes and Greens preferences flowing strongly towards him. The only problem will be when Bailey retires.
@Wilson, I just don’t think it’ll be as pronounced in inner electorates, especially ones more left of centre (like South Brisbane, Miller or Bulimba). As long as Mark Bailey finishes top 2, Labor will hold this
Yes agree, the swing from the ALP to the LNP will be less pronounced in the inner city, especially because Miles (being a left faction leader and environmentalist) is a lot more popular in these areas.
I wouldn’t exactly call Miles popular in the inner city. By and large, voters do not care what faction of the Labor Party a politician is from, even left of centre voters. That sort of thing only interests political nerds like everyone commenting on this website. What a left of centre voter does care about, however, is whether new coal mines and gas wells are opened. Labor has been trumpeting their record of doing just that in Central Queensland, while also trying to pretend that’s not the case in inner Brisbane electorates.
It’s possible my own bias is creeping into this, but I can’t see inner Brisbane voters as regarding Miles as being significantly more trustworthy and genuine than voters elsewhere. Many of them will hold their nose and vote for Labor regardless, but I think many others will choose the more progressive option(s) on the ballot. This still may not be enough for Miller to fall this time, but I don’t think it’s impossible either. Bailey’s star has fallen a lot and I think he’ll be gone by the end of the 2028 election.
I think the inner city seats will have a small ALP to LNP swing and a large ALP to GRN swing. Greens can work the same magic as Maiwar to genuinely flip LNP voters left – haven’t written off Clayfield and Moggill – but Greens will mainly benefit from similar dynamics as the BCC election and winning seats off Labor by pushing them into 3rd.
That could still see the Greens win Miller – the path to victory here being Labor coming 3rd instead of 1st.
@Wilson ok calling him popular in the inner city was my mistake. He’s not necessarily popular in the inner city, but he’s not as wildly unpopular as he is in the regions. I’m also not trying to say that voters know about factions, I’m more or less saying that Miles has been more progressive than Palaczuck was. Especially on environmental achievements like the 75% emissions reduction target and protecting channel country. Combine this with the progressive coal royalties and net zero targets that were in place under Palaczuck, which again are more popular in the city than the regions, and this will make ALP more popular in the city. Of course there will likely be a large ALP to GRN swing in these inner seats.