LNP 1.6%
Incumbent MP
Tim Nicholls, since 2006.
Geography
Brisbane. Clayfield covers inner suburbs of the City of Brisbane on the northern side of the Brisbane River, specifically Albion, Hamilton, Ascot, Clayfield, Wooloowin, Hendra, Windsor, Gordon Park and Pinkenba. The seat also covers Brisbane Airport and ports and industrial areas. The eastern half of the seat has practically no residential population.
History
The seat of Clayfield was first created in 1950, was abolished in 1977, and was restored in 1992. Apart from two terms from 2001 to 2006, the seat has always been held by the Liberal Party.
The seat was won in 1992 by Santo Santoro. He had first been elected in 1989, winning the seat of Merthyr off Liberal-turned-National Don Lane. Merthyr was abolished in 1992, and Santoro was elected in the restored seat of Clayfield.
Santoro served as deputy leader of the Liberal Party from 1992 to 1995, and served as Minister for Training and Industrial Relations from 1996 to 1998.
In 2001, Santoro lost Clayfield in a shock result to the ALP’s Liddy Clark.
Santoro was appointed to a vacancy in the Senate in 2002. He served as Minister for Ageing from 2006 to 2007, but in March 2007 resigned from the ministry and the Senate after he was caught up in a share scandal.
Clark is a former actor in Australian television shows. She was re-elected as Member for Clayfield and briefly served as a minister in the Beattie government before resigning over a scandal involving the bringing of alcohol into a dry indigenous community in North Queensland.
In 2006, Clark was defeated by Brisbane city councillor Tim Nicholls. Nicholls was soon challenging Liberal leader Bruce Flegg for the leadership of the small party, and through 2007 the party was deadlocked due to a 4-4 tie between Flegg’s supporters and Nicholls’ supporters. The issue was resolved with the election of Mark McArdle as Liberal leader.
Nicholls has been re-elected in Clayfield in 2009, 2012 and 2015. Nicholls took on the Treasury portfolio after the merger of the Liberal and National parties in 2008, serving as Treasurer after the party won power in 2012.
Nicholls was elected leader of the Liberal National Party in 2016, and led the party into the 2017 election, which they lost. He stood down as leader shortly after that election.
- Jaimyn Mayer (Greens)
- Nick Buick (Libertarian)
- Belle Brookfield (Labor)
- Tim Nicholls (Liberal National)
- Michelle Wilde (One Nation)
Assessment
Clayfield is a marginal LNP seat, but has been won by the LNP or Liberal Party at all but two elections since the seat was restored in 1992.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Nicholls | Liberal National | 15,979 | 45.9 | -1.9 |
| Philip Anthony | Labor | 11,157 | 32.0 | -0.8 |
| Andrew Bartlett | Greens | 6,132 | 17.6 | -1.7 |
| Abby Douglas | One Nation | 817 | 2.3 | +2.4 |
| Robert King | Independent | 478 | 1.4 | +1.4 |
| Kathy Moloney | Civil Liberties & Motorists | 254 | 0.7 | +0.7 |
| Informal | 719 | 2.0 |
2020 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Tim Nicholls | Liberal National | 17,949 | 51.6 | +0.9 |
| Philip Anthony | Labor | 16,868 | 48.4 | -0.9 |
Booths in Clayfield have been divided into three areas: central, east and west.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in the centre (55.2%) and east (57%), while Labor polled 63% in the west. The LNP also polled 53% on the pre-poll vote.
The Greens came third, with a primary vote ranging from 13.6% in the east to 26.7% in the west.
| Voter group | GRN prim % | LNP 2PP % | Total votes | % of votes |
| Central | 15.9 | 55.2 | 3,940 | 11.3 |
| West | 26.7 | 37.0 | 3,936 | 11.3 |
| East | 13.6 | 57.0 | 2,677 | 7.7 |
| Pre-poll | 16.0 | 53.0 | 12,443 | 35.7 |
| Other votes | 17.8 | 52.4 | 11,821 | 34.0 |
Election results in Clayfield at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and the Greens.
Another seat of two halves, with Sandgate Rd being the dividing line between the inner-city west and the wealthy east, Brisbane’s equivalent of Vaucluse, Toorak and Peppermint Grove. I think a lot rests on which way the yuppies of Hamilton end up voting. Hamilton booth went from 57% LNP 2PP to 52% last time and could cross into a Labor majority this time around.
@ Wilson methinks this seat and Mogill could be teal target
Nimalan, the teals don’t exist in Queensland and haven’t performed well at state elections besides. I would suggest your view is projecting NSW and Victorian federal outcomes onto a Queensland state election, and I disagree with it for that reason.
Agree Wilson, the structure of Brisbane with only small pockets of ‘affluent’ inner suburbs doesn’t work well for the teal movement and it is better for the Greens to dominate the inner suburban districts instead.
i agree the Teals do not exist yet in QLD but wondering if they were to enter whether this area demographically would be a good fit?
Nimalan, it’s certainly one of the most blue-green places in the state, and if it were in Sydney or Melbourne I’d agree that it would be a good opportunity for the teals. However, I wonder if their opportunity to make inroads in Brisbane has come and gone. They certainly filled the gap the Greens were aiming to exploit down south in 2022, but in Brisbane the reverse seems to have happened, the Greens took that opportunity instead. I haven’t seen anything so far to suggest that momentum has abated.
I wouldn’t say it’s impossible for a teal to win a seat in Queensland, because Nicole Johnston at Brisbane City Council level fits a lot of the criteria for a teal independent. However, it will be very hard to gain attention now when the Greens are at an all-time high in Queensland and the Liberals will be throwing resources at their marginal seats to retain them and form government.
Labor outpolled the Greens in nearly every booth within Clayfield at the federal election. It should be way down the list as a target for them. I think Libs would still win this on federal figures
Fair Point Wilson, this seat may become a LNP/Green instead of LNP/ALP after 2024 state election
Clayfield’s already very marginal so it really makes no sense for a teal candidate to pop up here all of a sudden. Tim Nicholls only really holds on here out of sheer luck more than anything else. He’s not liked by the party base and not a good campaigner. It’s just that last election the Greens campaign imploded and Labor didn’t even try.
Clayfield’s slightly more conservative overall than other inner city seats and there’s clearly a very rusted on LNP gentry in the eastern suburbs, but there are more renters in Clayfield overall than there are in Cooper or Maiwar. Greens should at least treat this as a ‘maybe’, after McConnel, Cooper and I guess Greenslopes.
In general I don’t feel that a Teal candidate (or IND candidates more broadly) will have a very good chance at winning or making much of an impact in a seat that is already 2PP marginal/competitive between the ALP and LNP. Neither side is likely to want to cede ground to an IND in a contest where ALP and LNP (and potentially GRN) think is winnable. This leaves little room for a Teal/IND to convince enough voters to switch to IND in order to make the 2CP, compete in terms of resources, and cut through with a message. Anecdotally, I feel we have seen evidence of this in a couple of electorates recently – Boothby (Jo Dyer – Federal 2022), Casey (Claire Ferres Miles – Federal 2022), Albert Park (Georgie Dragwidge – Victoria 2022), Hawthorn (Melissa Lowe – Victoria 2022).
West of Sandgate Road, especially west of the railway line, has a higher percentage of under 40s, renters, apartment-dwellers and students. This would be a three-way contest if they were in the same electorate with the ALP on top. If the Greens tried, they could win the western part. East of Sandgate Road is fairly safe Liberal, against Labor.
I agree with previous posters that it’s far from being a Greens or teal target. I do think that Teal/Ind success requires a key ingredient – LNP Government (just like federally in 2022 and in NSW in 2023) or at least running against a Government MP. Teal/Ind candidates can use issues like integrity, corruption, the environment, Nimby matters etc. against them. It’s much trickier when running against an opposition MP. In 2022, teals campaigned could leverage Morrison Government’s baggage against their opponents and remind voters that voting teal is a step closer to defeating the Morrison Government.
It’s also competitive for independents when running against controversial or locally unpopular MPs e.g. Tony Abbott in 2019 or Kristina Keneally in 2022.
On paper, as far as demographics suggest, Clayfield does seem like it fits the general profile for a Greens target seat.
On age-composition, it stands out with high amounts of voters between 20 – 34. It has a high amount of renters (about half) and high amounts of people living in flats & apartments (more than half). On demographics, this division reminds me a lot of Heffron in NSW, which also contains an airport within it.
https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/clayfield
Assessment wise, the LNP are already vulnerable here. The difficult part will be overcoming Labor’s strong position on 2CP numbers.
I definitely think that Clayfield is at least a better target than Moggill as some punters were suggesting in the Moggill profile. Moggill, while although fitting within Greens held Ryan, exhibits too many characteristics of a typical Coalition division:
#1 highest Age 45 – 54 in Queensland: 16.01%
#1 highest Median Household Income in Queensland: 2689
#1 highest amount of dwellings With 2 Motor Vehicles in Queensland: 46.51%
#3 highest amount Detached Housing in Queensland: 94.82%
#4 highest Median Family Income in Queensland: 2986
#1 lowest Age 25 – 34 in Queensland: 7.26%
#1 lowest Renters in Queensland: 12.97%
#4 lowest Community Housing in Queensland: 0.10%
#5 lowest Dwellings With No Motor Vehicles in Queensland: 2.06%
https://pseph.io/queensland-election-2024/profile/moggill
I would also caution that Clayfield does not make sense as a priority or main target for 2024, just a development target for future elections.
from the BCC Results of Hamilton & the bits of Marchant it looks to be even more marginal seat at best for the LNP.
Clayfield’s population has rapidly increased post-pandemic. There are lots of new apartments and with them, came lots of 20 and 30-something year-olds, first-home buyers and renters. Clayfield’s enrolments are well above the state average. I sense that given the demographic changes, the LNP primary vote will go down, unless a major stuff-up or a disendorsement happens.
@SEQ Observer, did you create that site yourself? Will there be federal election content?
@ Votante
That is an interesting point as lowering the median age will help the Greens over Labor as well. In Brisbane at the 2022 fed election, this was the only part where Labor outpolled the Greens. It is the same in Higgins where Labor outpolled the Greens narrowly in the old money parts. In the Hamilton ward, the Greens for the first time outpolled Labor last month.
@Nimalan, Higgins and Clayfield are alike in that the western parts are where most people are either in their 20s or 30s or a renter or apartment-dweller. The middle and eastern parts are where the old money is and strongly LNP-voting and Labor still outpolls the Greens.
I expect a swing to Labor/Greens in Hamilton and Ascot due to the growing apartment dweller vote, renter vote and youth vote.
This is and Coomera are the only two LNP seats I see in danger as falling, this election. Whilst both incumbents start favourites, it wouldn’t take much for them to be lost. Clayfield due to gentrification, Coomera due to the massive boom in population which makes it impossible to predict who they’ll vote for.
Clayfield looked way more precarious to me last year before Labor’s polling crashed through the earth, but I really don’t see the LNP in trouble any more. Labor will do absolutely no real campaigning here whatsoever beyond the bare minimum and I doubt the Greens will try much harder either, but will probably beat Labor for 2nd place, finally. Nicholls should still win pretty easily, probably with a less dramatic swing than average, but still. Something pretty significant would have to change (again) to make Clayfield interesting. Maybe Labor recovers in the polls, maybe Tim Nicholls could go insane like John Meyer did.
Well the greens might make a moderately decent effort, but won’t be looking at this as a likely winner compared to their labor targets.
Agree furtive, Tim Nicholls is still favoured to retain his seat, although he is likely to end up receiving a less than favourable swing (probably at least 3-4% under the state wide average)
I wonder how long Nicholls continues in office before he decides to retire. He’s been an elected politician since 2000, serving six years as a Brisbane councillor and since then as the member for Clayfield. He is currently shadow Attorney General and Justice Minister and should continue these portfolios in government, assuming the LNP wins the election. I would imagine they will be pretty demanding roles though, given the huge focus on youth crime from the LNP this election. If he retires in 2028, Clayfield would be firmly in play then.
@ Wilson, i think it maybe in play for Greens in future but i doubt about Labor they seem to be in long term decline in Inner Affluent Brisbane. I feel gentrification is hurting Labor and benefiting the Greens.
”state was restored”
???
Believe you mean seat?
It was reported in the Courier Mail Libertarian Party (formally Liberals Democrats) will run its only state election candidate real estate entrepreneur and family man Nick Buick. It was reported Campbell Newman who is also a member ‘teased’ with the idea of running, but never went through with it. Pretty sure Newman lives in McConnell, but I could be wrong about that. Libertarian party running here is interesting. They probably haven’t bothered running in the regions because their vote will get mopped up or splintered by One Nation.
Tim Nicholls running again, but not everyone agrees with it. Alan Jones suggested after the last state election, that the LNP needs some of these long serving MP’s to go and make way for fresh talent.
LNP retain and increase their margin significantly.
@Political Nightwatchman They’re running a candidate in Burleigh as well, but yeah I doubt they will anywhere else. That aside, I think it’s pretty likely that Nicholls will retire in 2028. It will have been 22 years since he was first elected by then.
@PN @Laine he might run for a federal seat though given he’s only 59, which is younger than most Prime Ministers and Premiers.
Interestingly Crisafulli will be quite a young Premier, aged 45. Not the youngest (the youngest state Premier ever was Robert Herbert who became Queensland Premier at 28 years old).
Poll Bludger profile shows 5 candidates on the ballot in the order of LNP, Labor, Greens, One Nation & Libertarian.
https://www.pollbludger.net/qld2024/LA.htm?s=Clayfield
A good result here and other seats north of the river could bolster libs chances in Brisbane and lilley federally
Something helping the LNP here is Tim Nicholls being a moderate and a long-serving MP so he has a personal vote. I imagine some people who vote Labor federally vote for him on the state level for those reasons. I don’t think the Greens will ever win this, Clayfield and Eagle Farm just aren’t the same as places like East Melbourne or Prahran.
The One Nation Candidate for Clayfield has just been disendorsed
You mean the candidate for Chatsworth? Or has the Clayfield candidate been disendorsed too?