Nanango – QLD 2020

LNP 13.4% vs ON

Incumbent MP
Deb Frecklington, since 2012.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Nanango covers regional areas to the west of the Sunshine Coast. The seat covers parts of Dalby, Somerset, South Burnett and Toowoomba councils, covering the major centres of Kingaroy, Nanango, Kilcoy, Esk and Cherbourg.

History
The seat of Nanango first existed from 1912 to 1950. It was abolished in 1950 and replaced with Barambah. Barambah was abolished in 2001 and replaced with a new version of Nanango. Both seats were solidly Country/National until the 1998 election.

Joh Bjelke-Petersen was elected to the seat of Nanango in 1947, moving to Barambah in 1950. Bjelke-Petersen became a minister in 1963, and became Premier at the head of the Country/Liberal coalition government in 1968.

Bjelke-Petersen served as Premier for 19 years, until he stepped down in 1987. His resignation triggered the 1988 Barambah by-election.

At that by-election, the seat was won by the Citizens’ Electoral Council’s candidate, Trevor Perrett, who joined the National Party later that year.

Perrett was re-elected in 1989, 1992 and 1995, and served as a minister in the Borbidge coalition government from 1996 to 1998.

In 1998, Perrett was defeated by One Nation candidate Dorothy Pratt.

Pratt, like most One Nation MPs, quit the party in 1999 to sit as an independent. When Barambah was renamed Nanango in 2001, she was re-elected to that seat as an independent. She was again re-elected in 2004, 2006 and 2009.

Pratt retired at the 2012 election, and the seat was won by LNP candidate Deb Frecklington. Frecklington defeated former cricketer Carl Rackemann, running for Katter’s Australian Party, by a 9% margin after preferences. Independent candidate John Dalton came third, with the ALP relegated to fourth place.

Frecklington was re-elected in 2015 and 2017.

Candidates

Assessment
Nanango is a very safe LNP seat.

2017 result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Deb Frecklington Liberal National 15,05348.0+1.6
Douglas GrantOne Nation8,60627.4+27.4
Ben Rankin Labor 6,04419.3-0.8
John Harbison Greens 1,6585.3+1.6
Informal1,0913.4

2017 two-candidate-preferred result

CandidatePartyVotes%Swing
Deb Frecklington Liberal National 19,87163.4+0.1
Douglas GrantOne Nation11,49036.6+36.6

Booth breakdown

Booths in Nanango have been divided into three areas: north, south-east and south-west.

The LNP won a majority of the two-candidate-preferred vote (against One Nation) in all three areas, ranging from 63% in the south-east to 67% in the north.

Labor came third, with 19% in the north and south-west and 22% in the south-east.

Voter groupALP primLNP 2CPTotal votes% of votes
South-West19.464.07,11822.7
South-East22.362.95,63418.0
North19.367.15,07616.2
Pre-poll18.061.78,24226.3
Other votes17.862.05,29116.9

Election results in Nanango at the 2017 QLD state election
Toggle between two-candidate-preferred votes (LNP vs One Nation) and Labor primary votes.


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32 COMMENTS

  1. Absolute disgrace and shameful if anyone supports the state border to open to NSW, you are asking for more outbreaks and you care more about jobs than public health and safety. If another big outbreak happens I hope the conservative politicians are part of the ones infected no offence. And then we will see how THEY like it and then that might turn their thinking cap on. Remember folks it will only take 1 person. And our economy cannot recover if we become like Victoria or even a NSW style mini outbreak. Tell Snotty to care more about people’s health than jobs. And isn’t Snotty ignoring quarantine? Isn’t he from Sydney? He should be in mandatory quarantine. He was in NSW

  2. Daniel
    We need to raise the standards of political debate. “Snotty” in my view is unacceptable language to describe the PM.
    I accept that ultimately moderation is Ben’s prerogative but as Cief of Army said to all soldiers “The standard we walk past is the standard we accept” If this principle applies in cases of discrimination and perversion it also applies in political discussion.

  3. Andrew .. The site is littered with inappropriate comments which have little to do with analysing potential seat outcomes. Some posters also post personal attacks on their peers, seemingly with immunity. I am genuinely interested in election outcomes and like to glean info about other seats but there are some dominant posters who just clutter everything with personal vitriol.

  4. It was reported last election Deb Frecklington requested to change the LNP’s decision of preferncing the Greens ahead of Labor in South Brisbane. Apparently she was worried that Labor would retaliate by preferncing One Nation ahead of her in the seat of Nanango. She thought this would put her seat in jeopardy. That was never going to happen because the backlash from the Left in the Labor party if that decision was made.

    LNP retains easily. Look for the One Nation vote take a bit of a dive, and Frecklington to increase her margin. Due to her increased profile as opposition leader and the pandemic.

  5. I don’t think this is the appropriate forum for anyone to be having childish fights over each others views.

    Ultimately we should be discussing what is actually relevant such as polls, the likelihood of who will win the seat, strong third party showings, vote breakdowns by demographics and geography to name a few things.

    We are mostly adults here, we should be more respectful towards one another and honestly would anybody speak like this to others in public when having a forthright discussion.

  6. PN
    Fascinating (if true). It would seem obvious, as you state, that Labor wouldn’t pref ON. Importantly what would that imply about Frecklington ?

  7. Just curiosity: why was this seat named Nanango and not Kingaroy in 2001? Kingaroy’s the bigger town.

    Looking back, that 1988 by-election was the canary in the coalmine for much bigger things a decade later – it didn’t look like such a big deal because the Nats convinced the CEC guy to join them (and then the CEC got taken over by nutty Larouchites, so that was the end of them). Far-right politics had been smouldering in regional Qld (League of Rights, Confederate Action Party, etc) for a while before it exploded into public view in 1998.

  8. Frecklington was attacked by Alan Jones on Monday on Sky. She is so fortunate that he is no longer on radio. I give Jones credit for the 2015 QLD result. Generous – maybe. However he is not a nice enemy to acquire .

    He criticised her hypocrisy over the ACLAND coal mine (his home town). Cowardice in never appearing on his programme. & so on. Her lack of presence & gravitas could well hand this election to Labor. So far it has almost guaranteed a minority coalition govt.

  9. Honestly sick of hearing ads on the radio lying and saying Labor did this, Labor did that and even dare to bring up abortion and play Pro-life ads, over it.

    If she wins (Deb) she will be #NotMyPremier because she won’t be my premier. a leader is supposed to represent everyone regardless of who you voted for yet. she does not respect people who don’t vote for her because of these nasty attacks that i would consider primary school bullying,

    I admit Labor has also done some of this as well but not to this extent. remember she is the one who said Princess Premier! This defines the whole party at a national level as well and she will join the list as Scott Morrison is #NotMyPrimeMinister because this is ridiculous the politicians need to grow up.

    At this stage i will be leaving my ballot blank at the Federal election in 2022, because i cannot stand either federal leader. Politics has just turned into a big joke these days no wonder people hate talking about it. I don’t remember politics being like this in the UK although there are some pretty nasty politicians there as well.

    Answer this, Why does an issue like abortion affect anyone? This is between a women and her family and her doctor. Not the government, I don’t care about what your religion tells you. There are people who are irreligious and they need to be respected. You cannot impose an anti-abortion rhetoric on non Christians. The Australian constitution was written as secular, should stay that way. The church isn’t part of the state here anyway, The abortion laws need to stay, Not turn this into a religious debate by saying all life starts at conception.

    And highest unemployment? And you blame the premier? No it is the PM’s fault. This is HIS recession that he caused, So he is responsible to fix it that he still yet to which he won’t. What happened to the surplus they promised? didn’t happen. Nope. They lied.

  10. Daniel
    Re abortion. As a libertarian i’ve always supported abortion on demand. No if or buts. However not to recognise that LATE TERM abortions are not a distressing, & divisive issue, is simply disrespectful
    . I am grateful not to have to be a King Solomon on that one. IOW buggered if i know. As a parent of a high level disabled child, it’s an issue iv’e had too much time to sadly reflect upon.

  11. Only one party in Australia is pro life that being the DLP. At times CD and Family First came close. KAP have had 100% pro life members but the party itself avoided the issue.

  12. There are no evil pregnant people and/or doctors rubbing their hands together planning to let a fetus grow for as long as possible before conducting an abortion. Making “late term” abortions legal is not increasing harm, just codifying a rare edge case that everyone tries to avoid.

  13. Last night on ABC election broadcast prior to 7 PM news Frecklington sounded professional for first time in my memory. She spent most of time extolling what she saw as virtues of her policy and came close to ignoring ALP. If she had behaved in this way from
    Her election as Leader of Opposition she or her candidate would Have gained my vote or preference. As it is her nightly vomit about Palaszczuk and ALP lost it. I have already cast my postal ballot for ALP candidate Chris Whiting in Bancroft.

  14. After watching the leaders “debate” I’m convinced more than ever that Frecklington is way out of her depth and is more akin to a nervous schoolkid debater than any sort of leader. She is one of Labor’s best assets.

  15. Must have watched a different debate. The Premier looked frazzled and desperate. I went in thinking they are retaining government, but her performance looked paniced and has me rethinking it.

  16. QO .. seemingly .. you see what you want to see .. I took notice of her manner, not just the lack of substance. The Premier knew she was in enemy territory and from the very first questioner went on the front foot – she was not going to relent under pressure. In addition, she was determined to not let Frecklington constantly fill the debate with inaccuracies, misrepresentations and blatant lies.

  17. I thought that it
    was similar result to election a hung Parliament but the most important point is that both have guaranteed they will not negotiate with cross bench even if a hung Parliament.

    Do the two of them think that the people of Queensland should be treated with such total contempt. If they do not have Majority in Parliament neither of them have a mandate and their respective parties should sack both of them. ie if we need a second election we need new leaders.

  18. It was actually quite sad to see Frecklington struggling in what should have been friendly Sky News territory. The killer blow was the Premier asking Frecklington about her costings, which she kept ducking from. Quite telling Palaszczuk won over the majority of “undecided” voters, it seems that NewsCorp now concedes she is unelectable and will drop her like a hot potato, and even her own party gave up on her a long time ago. It will be very interesting to see what transpires after the election wash up (possibly breakup of the party) and the finger pointing that will follow.

  19. The “undecided” voters gave the “debate” to the Premier 53-30 with 17 still undecided. In addition, one of the questioners (probably the first one) was outed for actually being an LNP member. Interesting that an LNP member would be undecided – obviously not happy with the leader, or policies .. or both.

  20. @Asho I’d love to see the Libs and Nats split. Neither of them have the spine to go through with it though. They just threaten to do so every couple years.

  21. @Peter Knopke

    No it wasn’t the first person who asked the question that was outed as a member/supporter of the LNP. It was the woman that asked the question why Queensland had the highest employment rate in the country. Kate Jones has sent out a tweet showing her campaigning for the LNP and receiving an award from former LNP president Garry Spence. Its more likely she was there to ask a question to put Labor in the most unflattering light and give her party a leg up.

  22. Peter Knopke
    The undecided Liberal is not really undecided just an individual who thinks the end justifies the means. Clearly the organisers of this type of event need to make every participant sign a Statutory Declaration so that those who are careless with accuracy face a few weeks in jail for their carelessness.

  23. Asho
    If Oscar thinks either of them smashed the other h needs to be up much later doing homework. Palaszczuk marginally ahead in both debates but no one comes out with huge advantage. Especially when you take into account limited audience. Debate should be on prime time free to air TV not hidden away in dark corner of internet. My final prediction. ALP hold all seats they have in Brisbane and regain Pummicestone. Therefore election will be decided in Townsville, Thuringowa, Mundingburra and Cook. We will be not much better informed at this time tomorrow night than we are now at 22:20 Friday night.
    Remember Qld sits on 1.3 deaths per million Population with market driven Populism New York on 1854 deaths per million pop.

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