Inala by-election, 2024

Damn you beat me to announcing she has quit. But my analysis is this will easily be held by the ALP, but Labor will likely lose the next state election. I suspect the new member for Inala will likely be on the shadow-front bench as this is the sort of seat that would produce ministers when in government.

By-election will probably see about a 15% swing against Labor, still a safe retain of about 13% margin.

Itlooks.iketheyhave forced her to jump before the Xmas break so they can reset over the holidaysandtryandretain got robbed qlders of the chance to throw her out of govt. Cowards.

John whilst a new Premier may reset things a bit, I don’t see it having too much effect and it could even make things worse. In WA, polls for Labor slumped when Roger Cook took over from the popular Mark McGowan.

This is the ultimate safe seat for Labor in QLD, like Rockingham in WA. Nothing but a safe Labor win.

@yoh an the difference being they are replacing an unpopular premier whilst McGowan had never been more so

Agree John, but I’m just saying it’s too early to make judgements at this stage. Although I think you could be right that it may be like the 2015 or 2019 NSW elections where a sort of unpopular leader stepped down (Barry O Farrell and Mike Baird respectively) and a replacement was able to stabilise the situation.

@yph an I doubt rearranging the crew and changing the captain will stop the ship from sinking

3 premiers have resigned and a total of 4 states have changed premier this year. Is this a record?

Well I be, McGowan, Andrews and now Palaszczuk now gone – did NOT have any of their resignations on my 2023 bingo card!

As for the by-election here, obvious Labor bold is obvious.

An article in the Australian from December 1 suggests that Palaszczuk’s deputy chief of staff John Persley is her likely successor for the Labor candidacy in Inala.

How soon will the by-election be required to occur? Could it be held off to March when the council elections are or will it be held on a separate date?

Fair point John, I probably see the upcoming Queensland election similar to the recent NSW one where the incumbent government despite changing leaders still lost (albeit narrowly).

Labor will hold but suffer a swing because Palaszczuk’s personal vote is gone and statewide, ALP is on the nose.

I don’t think Steven Miles can save the furniture or minimise electoral damage in the way like Gillard in 2010 or Rudd in 2013 did. There’s a growing ‘it’s time’ factor. The scare campaign on the return of the Newman-era is losing its lustre especially as it was Palaszczuk who ended the Newman era, and not Miles.

@Yoh An, Barry O’Farrell and Mike Baird resigned and their successors won. The difference is that at the following elections, the Opposition Leaders were inexperienced and unknown and were only in the job for 3 or 4 months. Add to that, their parties were at least popular. Another difference is that the QLD Labor has governed for nearly 9 years, almost 3 terms.

It’s was reported today in Courier Mail, Jon Persley was in the box seat to win the preselection. And Nayda Hernandez ward officer to local councilor Charles Strunk has understood to have pulled out. There was some suggestion Hernandez may have the upper hand because of Labor affirmative action rules. This doesn’t seem to be the case now. School Teacher Margie Nightingale may still run in the preselection though.

i hate affirmative action. the only exception is disabled people who have a real disadvantage

Obviously they won’t lose but could voter fatigue hurt Labor given they could be facing 3 elections here by oct?

It was reported in the Australian, former teacher Margie Nightingale, a policy adviser for Treasurer Cameron Dick, is seen as frontrunner to be the Labor candidate. After Jon Persley, pulled out of the preselection.

It’s been reported the bye-election is expected to be held on March 16 to coincide with the local government elections – with holding the two polls on the same day will save costs.

Will probably help Labor safely hold Forest Lake LGA and be competitive Jamboree even though it only has Wacol which is a prison suburb.

No point the libs wasting resources here maybe field a candidate but that’s it

Given it’s a very safe Labor seat and there’s an upcoming state election, the LNP may sit this one out and save their resources.

The reason why the LNP could field a candidate is to do a litmus test and to test Steven Miles’s popularity. However, the super high margin and unpredictability of by-elections won’t give a perfect indication of the statewide result. There’s no point getting a low double-digit 2PP swing in Inala and in other safe seats but no swing in marginal seats. The LNP’s by-election candidate will most likely be their general election candidate too.

@Votante

It was reported in Courier Mail that Steven Miles has confirmed the Labor candidate for the Inala by-election is Margie Nightingale. And David Crisafulli has confirmed the LNP will run a candidate in the Inala by-election.

@PN DONT EXPECT THE LNP to expe d any resources for z seat they will lose and will have to fight again 8 months

As far as resources go, remember there’s the Council elections Qld-wide on the same day, and as Inala is mostly (entirely?) in Brisbane City Council all the parties have other things to do. The LNP wouldn’t expect to win Forest Lake ward either.

… But the Lord Mayor _is_ directly elected. A vote from this part of town is just as good as a vote from a Liberal held ward.

Ben – Edward Carroll’s website is up

http://www.queenslandprogressives.au/inala/

@John they won’t be spending heaps but they’ll want a swing. They have a candidate too.

Interestingly the Greens aren’t running candidates in any of the two state by-elections in Queensland. I guess they’re too focused on the BCC election.

Nether Portal – that’s not correct, Greens are running in Inala (Navdeep Singh, previous Greens candidate for the area and I think he was #3 on the Senate ticket too?)

@AlexJ thanks for the correction.

Margie has an incredible reputation amongst the community and is an honourable person having worked as Milton Dick’s campaign manager on numerous occasions, I predict Margie will hold Inala and be the new member. Full disclosure she is someone I know personally and believe there is no one better to represent the Inala electorate.

The Courier Mail story on the branch anger against Brisbane City councillor Charles Strunk (see Forest Lake thread) also says that some of the local Labor branch members are refusing to volunteer for Nightingale in this election, due to the sacking of Nayda Hernandez and her subsequent independent run for the same seat. As a result, Labor are having to bring in volunteers from Ipswich and Logan to campaign here, and the party are expecting a swing against them.

Apparently the large Vietnamese community in Inala are also not happy with Labor, due to their failure to select a Vietnamese candidate. This has shades of Fowler 2022, though as far as I understand, Nightingale is at least not a parachute candidate from elsewhere like Keneally was.

Any of the seven seats Labor held in 2012 are not likely to shift outside of a redistribution or a major demographic change. Having said that it’s going to be interesting to see how the ALP addresses affirmative action rules if there’s a swing, particularly for the Federal seats.

@ Mark Yore Well, South Brisbane is now held by the Greens, Rockhampton and Mackay are both increasingly marginal relative to their historical support for Labor, and the Labor margin in Mulgrave is inflated due to the Pitt family’s strong personal vote. But what you said does apply to Inala, Bundamba and Woodridge.

As for the by-election, I won’t be surprised if there is a significant swing here due to the already large Labor margin and the presence of both Hernandez and several Vietnamese candidates who may appeal to the large community here. Labor should retain it comfortably though.

@Laine I’d argue that South Brisbane has undergone a significant demographic shift – not only with the transfer of the ALP votes to the Greens, but also in the LNP slipping to third place allowing their preferences to become relevant. The shift in Mackay is boosted by the number of FIFO workers who call it home.

But yes, it does go to show that nothing is forever.

The swing away from Labor in Inala is far greater than the one in Ipswich West. The primary vote and 2PP swings are well over 20%. The last place on the ballot and a candidate not surnamed Palaszczuk did Labor no favours. The informal rate could exceed 10%, probably driven by the multiple elections on the same day.

Labor holds Inala because of the higher margin. Also, the growth in the Greens primary has meant a better preference flow to Labor in Inala.

Labor now holds this by a smaller margin than they did in 2012. Disastrous.

Labor’s drop in primaries and 2PP in Inala and Forest Lake Ward (BCC) are far worse than in similar, working class electorates with large Vietnamese communities. There were big swings away from Labor in Liverpool and Cabramatta in Sydney and Melbourne’s western suburbs at their latest state and federal elections but they weren’t as bad as yesterday’s result. It is worth noting that Labor was buoyed by statewide momentum at those elections. This might’ve minimised the swings in Sydney and Melbourne.

It highlights that Labor isn’t really connecting with younger as well as working-class communities. A safe seat could fall literally overnight. Labor shouldn’t take seats for granted and should improve candidate selection and connection to their traditional heartland. The writing was on the wall following Kristina Keneally’s parachute into Cabramatta.

– Seems a bit like the Vietnamese American Communities swinging to Trump in 2020
– I do think the crime wave did play a role in the LNP Swings. The law and order message works pretty effectively in the outer suburbs and regional areas rather than inner-city though. That is why I will predict areas with high crime will swing to LNP the hardest but inner city would have more minimal swings.

IT HAPPENS AT EVERY ELECTION, PEOPLE MAKING COMMENTS ON AN ELECTORATE THEY KNOW NOTHING PERSONALLY ABOUT, MORE SPECULATION THAN THE FACTS.
HAVING LIVED IN THE AREA SINCE 1946 ON BLUNDER ROAD LONG BEFORE INALA WAS BORN IN THE 50’S, NOW LIVING IN RETIREMENT AT DURACK, AFTER A 17 YEAR STRETCH AS THE BCC COUNCILLOR FOR RICHLANDS, ALONG WITH 10 YEARS AS CHAIR OF THE COUNCIL IN THE SOORLEY ADMINISTRATION, AND BEING A LIFE MEMBER OF THE QLD LABOR PARTY, MY EXPERIENCE AND KNOWLEGE OF THE HOW, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY OF POLITICS IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS IS FAR GREATER THAN ANY OF YOUR CONTRIBUTORS.
FIRST UP, THERE WAS NEVER, PAST OR PRESENT AT ANY TIME AN INTENT TO PARACHUTE AN OUTSIDE CANDIDATE INTO ANY OF THE LEVEL OF GOVERNMENT TO REPRESENT LABOR, IN THE FEDERAL SEAT OF OXLEY, THE STATE SEAT OF INALA OR THE COUNCIL WARD OF FOREST LAKE, ALL OF WHICH COVER OUR AREA.
WE CHOOSE AND SUPPORT OUR OWN, ALL OF WHICH HAVE THE SKILLS AND POITICAL KNOWLEGE TO CAPABLY REPRESENT OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.
THE ELECTORATE IS NO DIFFERENT, THEIR CHOICE WILL BE ONE OF US, WE TRUST THEIR DECISION, THEY WILL NEVER INSTALL SOMEONE WHO COMES FROM AN UP MARKET END OF TOWN, WHO DOES NOT LIVE HERE.
HENCE THE VERY CAPABLE LOCAL REPRESENTATIVES WE HAVE AT THE 3 LEVELS, CHARLES STRUNK AS OUR BCC COUNCILLOR, RE-ELECTED YESTERDAY FOR ANOTHER 4 YEAR TERM, MARGI NIGHTINGALE, ELECTED FOR THE STATE SEAT OF INALA YESTERDAY AND MILTON DICK THE FEDERAL MEMBER FOR OXLEY, WHO IS ALSO THE SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE OF REPS IN THE HOUSE OF HORRORS IN CANBERRA.
IF ANYONE WISHES TO SPECULATE ON LABOR HISTORY YOU HAVE COME TO THE RIGHT PLACE, INALA AND THE GOOD PEOPLE WHO LIVE, WORK AND PLAY HERE HAVE IT ALL, KNOWING FULL WELL THAT OUR LABOR LOOKS AFTER ITS OWN, BECAUSE THEY KNOW THEY CAN TRUST US.

Les, with respect, Labor has always been known for parachuting in candidates to lower socio economic areas. In Victoria, Maria Vamvakinou – the 20 year Calwell MP – has always lived in upmarket Northcote. Natalie Hutchins, Sydenham MP, lives in Essendon, where median home prices are approaching 2 million. Tim Pallas famously lives in Williamstown, a high end beach side area, while representing outer suburban Werribee.

@Mick Can I point out that Andrew Charlton MP, Member for Parramatta, just bought a $12 million beach house at Palm Beach. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13208613/andrew-charlton-palm-beach.html

And Les, as an Inala boy you probably remember Cr Les Bryant being forced out of Richlands Ward – sorry “”… been made a number of business opportunities which I am now considering. After consulting with my family and my advisers I have decided to withdraw my nomination for the Richlands ward” – to make room for Milton Dick when he was State Secretary of the ALP. Which was incredibly lucky for Milton because Labor HQ decided, entirely off their own bat, to leave nominations open long enough for Milton to complete the paperwork. You probably also remember it took forever for him to move into Durack because his wife refused to move from Clayfield. As a matter of fact he still has a house in Clayfield, as well as the weekender in Sunrise Beach.