Inala by-election, 2024

Cause of by-election
Sitting Labor MP Annastacia Palaszczuk announced her retirement as Premier and as local member on December 10, 2023.

Margin – ALP 28.2%

Incumbent MP
Annastacia Palaszczuk, since 2006.

Geography
South-East Queensland. Inala covers southwestern parts of the City of Brisbane and parts of Ipswich LGA. Inala covers the suburbs of Durack, Richlands, Inala, Carole Park, Camira and parts of Darra, Forest Lake and Springfield.

History
The seat of Inala has existed since 1992, and in that time it has always been held by the ALP, being held successively by two members of the same family.

Henry Palaszczuk won the seat in 1992. He served as a minister from 1998 to 2006, when he retired.

Annastacia Palaszczuk won the seat in 2006, and has been re-elected five times.

Palaszczuk served as a minister from 2009 to 2012. The Labor Party suffered a devastating loss in 2012, and Palaszczuk was one of only seven surviving MPs. Palaszczuk was elected as Labor leader following the 2012 election, and led the party to victory at the 2015 election, taking on the role of Premier since that election. Palaszczuk led Labor to two further victories in 2017 and 2020.

Candidates

  • Linh Nguyen (Independent)
  • Chris Simpson (Independent)
  • Margie Nightingale (Labor)
  • Trang Yen (Liberal National)
  • Nigel Quinlan (Legalise Cannabis)
  • Nayda Hernandez (Independent)
  • Navdeep Singh Sidhu (Greens)
  • Edward Carroll (Independent)

Assessment
Inala is the safest seat in Queensland. While a by-election may shake things up, Labor should retain the seat.

2020 result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Annastacia Palaszczuk Labor 19,888 67.4 -0.5
Miljenka Perovic Liberal National 4,879 16.5 -4.2
Peter Murphy Greens 2,275 7.7 -3.6
Scott Reid One Nation 1,341 4.5 +4.6
Nigel Quinlan Legalise Cannabis 734 2.5 +2.5
Terry Jones Independent 197 0.7 +0.7
Michael Vidal Civil Liberties & Motorists 183 0.6 +0.6
Informal 1,521 4.9

2020 two-party-preferred result

Candidate Party Votes % Swing
Annastacia Palaszczuk Labor 23,057 78.2 +2.1
Miljenka Perovic Liberal National 6,440 21.8 -2.1

Booth breakdown

Booths in Inala have been divided into three areas: central, north and south.

Labor won a very large majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all three areas, ranging from 76.1% in the south to 84.7% in the centre.

Voter group ALP 2PP % Total votes % of votes
South 76.1 4,383 14.9
Central 84.7 2,291 7.8
North 83.6 1,259 4.3
Pre-poll 78.3 12,853 43.6
Other votes 76.6 8,711 29.5

Election results in Inala at the 2020 Queensland state election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for Labor and the Liberal National Party.

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30 COMMENTS

  1. Damn you beat me to announcing she has quit. But my analysis is this will easily be held by the ALP, but Labor will likely lose the next state election. I suspect the new member for Inala will likely be on the shadow-front bench as this is the sort of seat that would produce ministers when in government.

    By-election will probably see about a 15% swing against Labor, still a safe retain of about 13% margin.

  2. Itlooks.iketheyhave forced her to jump before the Xmas break so they can reset over the holidaysandtryandretain got robbed qlders of the chance to throw her out of govt. Cowards.

  3. John whilst a new Premier may reset things a bit, I don’t see it having too much effect and it could even make things worse. In WA, polls for Labor slumped when Roger Cook took over from the popular Mark McGowan.

  4. Agree John, but I’m just saying it’s too early to make judgements at this stage. Although I think you could be right that it may be like the 2015 or 2019 NSW elections where a sort of unpopular leader stepped down (Barry O Farrell and Mike Baird respectively) and a replacement was able to stabilise the situation.

  5. Well I be, McGowan, Andrews and now Palaszczuk now gone – did NOT have any of their resignations on my 2023 bingo card!

    As for the by-election here, obvious Labor bold is obvious.

  6. An article in the Australian from December 1 suggests that Palaszczuk’s deputy chief of staff John Persley is her likely successor for the Labor candidacy in Inala.

  7. How soon will the by-election be required to occur? Could it be held off to March when the council elections are or will it be held on a separate date?

  8. Fair point John, I probably see the upcoming Queensland election similar to the recent NSW one where the incumbent government despite changing leaders still lost (albeit narrowly).

  9. Labor will hold but suffer a swing because Palaszczuk’s personal vote is gone and statewide, ALP is on the nose.

    I don’t think Steven Miles can save the furniture or minimise electoral damage in the way like Gillard in 2010 or Rudd in 2013 did. There’s a growing ‘it’s time’ factor. The scare campaign on the return of the Newman-era is losing its lustre especially as it was Palaszczuk who ended the Newman era, and not Miles.

    @Yoh An, Barry O’Farrell and Mike Baird resigned and their successors won. The difference is that at the following elections, the Opposition Leaders were inexperienced and unknown and were only in the job for 3 or 4 months. Add to that, their parties were at least popular. Another difference is that the QLD Labor has governed for nearly 9 years, almost 3 terms.

  10. It’s was reported today in Courier Mail, Jon Persley was in the box seat to win the preselection. And Nayda Hernandez ward officer to local councilor Charles Strunk has understood to have pulled out. There was some suggestion Hernandez may have the upper hand because of Labor affirmative action rules. This doesn’t seem to be the case now. School Teacher Margie Nightingale may still run in the preselection though.

  11. Obviously they won’t lose but could voter fatigue hurt Labor given they could be facing 3 elections here by oct?

  12. It was reported in the Australian, former teacher Margie Nightingale, a policy adviser for Treasurer Cameron Dick, is seen as frontrunner to be the Labor candidate. After Jon Persley, pulled out of the preselection.

  13. It’s been reported the bye-election is expected to be held on March 16 to coincide with the local government elections – with holding the two polls on the same day will save costs.

  14. Will probably help Labor safely hold Forest Lake LGA and be competitive Jamboree even though it only has Wacol which is a prison suburb.

  15. Given it’s a very safe Labor seat and there’s an upcoming state election, the LNP may sit this one out and save their resources.

    The reason why the LNP could field a candidate is to do a litmus test and to test Steven Miles’s popularity. However, the super high margin and unpredictability of by-elections won’t give a perfect indication of the statewide result. There’s no point getting a low double-digit 2PP swing in Inala and in other safe seats but no swing in marginal seats. The LNP’s by-election candidate will most likely be their general election candidate too.

  16. @Votante

    It was reported in Courier Mail that Steven Miles has confirmed the Labor candidate for the Inala by-election is Margie Nightingale. And David Crisafulli has confirmed the LNP will run a candidate in the Inala by-election.

  17. @PN DONT EXPECT THE LNP to expe d any resources for z seat they will lose and will have to fight again 8 months

  18. As far as resources go, remember there’s the Council elections Qld-wide on the same day, and as Inala is mostly (entirely?) in Brisbane City Council all the parties have other things to do. The LNP wouldn’t expect to win Forest Lake ward either.

    … But the Lord Mayor _is_ directly elected. A vote from this part of town is just as good as a vote from a Liberal held ward.

  19. @John they won’t be spending heaps but they’ll want a swing. They have a candidate too.

    Interestingly the Greens aren’t running candidates in any of the two state by-elections in Queensland. I guess they’re too focused on the BCC election.

  20. Nether Portal – that’s not correct, Greens are running in Inala (Navdeep Singh, previous Greens candidate for the area and I think he was #3 on the Senate ticket too?)

  21. Margie has an incredible reputation amongst the community and is an honourable person having worked as Milton Dick’s campaign manager on numerous occasions, I predict Margie will hold Inala and be the new member. Full disclosure she is someone I know personally and believe there is no one better to represent the Inala electorate.

  22. The Courier Mail story on the branch anger against Brisbane City councillor Charles Strunk (see Forest Lake thread) also says that some of the local Labor branch members are refusing to volunteer for Nightingale in this election, due to the sacking of Nayda Hernandez and her subsequent independent run for the same seat. As a result, Labor are having to bring in volunteers from Ipswich and Logan to campaign here, and the party are expecting a swing against them.

    Apparently the large Vietnamese community in Inala are also not happy with Labor, due to their failure to select a Vietnamese candidate. This has shades of Fowler 2022, though as far as I understand, Nightingale is at least not a parachute candidate from elsewhere like Keneally was.

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