LNP 6.6%
Incumbent MP
Michelle Landry, since 2013.
Geography
Central Queensland. Capricornia covers the Queensland coast from Rockhampton to just south of Mackay.
History
Capricornia is an original federation electorate. After changing between a number of parties in early decades, the seat was held by the ALP for most of the last half-century, with the exception of two wins by the Country/National Party at particular low-points for the ALP, before the LNP won in 2013.
The seat was first won in 1901 by independent candidate Alexander Paterson. Paterson didn’t run for re-election in 1903, and was succeeded by the ALP’s David Thompson.
Thomson lost in 1906 to the Anti-Socialist Party’s Edward Archer. Archer too was defeated after one term, losing in 1910 to the ALP’s William Higgs.
Higgs was a former Senator for Queensland, who held Capricornia for the next decade. He served as Treasurer in Billy Hughes’ government from 1915 to 1916, resigning over Hughes’ support for conscription. Ironically he later left the ALP in 1920 and ended up in Hughes’ Nationalist Party. He failed to win re-election as a Nationalist in 1922, losing to the ALP’s Frank Forde.
Forde was the state MP for Rockhampton, and rose quickly in the federal Labor ranks. He served as a junior minister in the Scullin government, being promoted to cabinet in the final days of the government in 1931. Forde became Deputy Leader of the ALP in 1932.
Forde contested the leadership of the party in 1935, losing by one vote to John Curtin, having lost support due to his support for Scullin’s economic policies. He served as Minister for the Army during the Second World War on the election of the Curtin government.
Forde became Prime Minister in July 1945 upon the death of John Curtin, and served eight days before losing a leadership ballot to Ben Chifley. He served as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence in the aftermath of the Second World War, until he lost Capricornia at the 1946 election, despite the ALP winning a comfortable victory.
Capricornia was won in 1946 by the Liberal Party’s Charles Davidson. Davidson moved to the new seat of Dawson in 1949, and went on to serve as a minister in the Menzies government before retiring in 1963.
Davidson was succeeded in Capricornia in 1949 by Henry Pearce, also from the Liberal Party. Pearce held Capricornia for twelve years, losing in 1961 to the ALP’s George Gray.
Gray held the seat until his death in 1967, and the ensuing by-election was won by Doug Everingham. He served as Minister for Health in the Whitlam government, but lost Capricornia in 1975 to Colin Carige of the National Country Party, winning it back in 1977. Everingham then managed to hold the seat until his retirement in 1984.
He was succeeded in 1984 by Keith Wright, who had been the Labor leader in the Queensland parliament since 1982 and member for Rockhampton since 1969. Wright held Capricornia until 1993, when he was charged with rape, leading to him losing his ALP endorsement. He contested Capricornia as an independent, but lost to ALP candidate Marjorie Henzell.
Henzell held the seat for one term, losing to National candidate Paul Marek in 1996. Marek also held the seat for one term, losing to the ALP’s Kirsten Livermore in 1998. Livermore was re-elected in Capricornia in 2001, 2004, 2007 and 2010.
Livermore retired in 2013, and the LNP’s Michelle Landry won the seat with a 4.5% swing.
Landry was re-elected in 2016 by a slim 0.6% margin. This seat was the most marginal Coalition seat in the country, thus giving the government its slim majority. Landry won a third term in 2019 with a massive swing, giving her a margin of over 12%, and won comfortable re-election again in 2022.
Assessment
Capricornia is a reasonably safe LNP seat.
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Landry | Liberal National | 35,613 | 39.4 | -1.2 |
| Russell Robertson | Labor | 25,330 | 28.1 | +4.3 |
| Kylee Stanton | One Nation | 13,179 | 14.6 | -2.4 |
| Mick Jones | Greens | 5,302 | 5.9 | +1.0 |
| Nathan Luke Harding | United Australia | 3,555 | 3.9 | +0.3 |
| Ken Murray | Independent | 3,048 | 3.4 | +0.9 |
| Zteven Whitty | Great Australian Party | 1,747 | 1.9 | +1.9 |
| Steve Murphy | Liberal Democrats | 1,392 | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Paula Ganfield | Informed Medical Options | 1,126 | 1.2 | +1.3 |
| Informal | 5,904 | 6.1 | -0.2 |
2022 two-party-preferred result
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Swing |
| Michelle Landry | Liberal National | 51,096 | 56.6 | -5.8 |
| Russell Robertson | Labor | 39,196 | 43.4 | +5.8 |
Booths have been divided into four areas. Booths in the Isaac Regional Council area have been grouped together. This area has the smallest population but covers the largest areas. A majority of voters live in the Rockhampton council area. Booths in this area have been split between those in the Rockhampton urban areas itself and those outside of it. Booths in the Mackay and Whitsunday areas have been grouped as “North”.
The LNP won a majority of the two-party-preferred vote in all four areas, ranging from 50.1% in Rockhampton to 61% in the north.
One Nation came third, with a primary vote ranging from 12.8% in Rockhampton to 22.7% in the north.
| Voter group | ON prim | LNP 2PP | Total votes | % of votes |
| Rockhampton | 12.8 | 50.1 | 14,132 | 15.7 |
| North | 22.7 | 61.0 | 9,464 | 10.5 |
| Livingstone | 14.2 | 57.1 | 7,261 | 8.0 |
| Isaacs | 21.8 | 52.8 | 2,663 | 2.9 |
| Pre-poll | 13.2 | 56.3 | 40,613 | 45.0 |
| Other votes | 14.0 | 60.7 | 16,159 | 17.9 |
Election results in Capricornia at the 2022 federal election
Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal National Party, Labor and One Nation.
I agree with John. Given the clear solution for Maranoa is to take Groom’s rural voters, Groom has nowhere to go but down the range. Taking the entire Lockyer Valley LGA puts Groom back into quota and requires only minor fixes for Wright.
Wright should become a Scenic Rim / Logan seat, exiting the Gold Coast at its eastern end.
I talked more about it in wright discussion, it needs to loose Lockyer and could gain the high growth area around Ripley, then either pivot to either west/south Logan or the northern Gold Coast, creating a knock on effect
@Real Talk my Forde is set to move further into the Gold Coast, losing everything north of the Logan River to Bowman or Rankin. I’ll settle on a final configuration once the numbers are released, but if anything is certain in my submission, it’s these:
– Blair will lose Somerset. Haven’t decided to whom it’ll go to (depends on if Queensland gains seat 31).
– Capricornia will lose the rest of Mackay LGA, and gain the rest of Rockhampton LGA, as well as most/all towns and settlements on the Capricorn Highway.
– Petrie will no longer cross the Pine Rivers, marking the first time since its creation in 1949 that it will not do so.
– Rankin becomes compressed solely within Logan LGA.
– Wright will lose Lockyer Valley.
Based on current estimates of projected quotas, Leichhardt down to Wide Bay is 48% under quota, Brisbane north is 15% under quota, while the growth corridor north of Brisbane (Fairfax, Fisher, Longman) is 54% over quota. So this doesn’t leave any space for Maranoa (15% under quota) to expand north, unless a division crosses the Brisbane River.
@CJ – agree on Blair and Capricornia. With Petrie, Rankin and Wright, the direction of movement is right but they might have to lose slightly too many voters in order to achieve what you outline without requiring gains elsewhere. More likely they will each still have a very small amount of overhang.
@real talk i plan to move wright a bit urther int the gold up to the pafici motroway.
@cj my rnkain also soley in logan. and agree on wright. my petrie still crosses the rine rivers into brisbane but loses some territory.
in my state redistribution ive put somerset into the new seat around caboolture and am gonna do the same federally by putting it in longman. its too weird to go into maranoa whihc is better suited to take in more of Toowoomba. from there the only real options are dickson and longman. and is better suited to go into longman in my opinion
Short of getting frustrated with the Bruce Highway being so congested there’s little that the two sections of Petrie have in common. That’s why I want to clean up the panhandle.
Plus, the knock on with Ryan and Lilley being so far under quota means that this is a logical choice to fix, and hits two birds with one stone.
If there is a 31st seat, it’ll be based around Somerset, the Glass House Mountains, and the Sunshine Coast hinterland. This theoretical new seat, I plan on naming Hayden.
Cj i dont think there is enough deficit to entirely remove all of brisbane from petrie given the numbers available atm.
@CJ id rather an Irwin seat first. youd be hard pressed to find an austrlaian opposed to that name. i dont think a 31st seat is going to materialise this time around probably at the next election.
Part of the plan involves moving Dickson slightly further into BCC. Say for example, Everton Park. Lilley then takes up the panhandle and numbers are shuffled north of the river.
Much of this is based on @angas and @jwood ‘s tool.
@John when Parliament expands there are three names for Queensland seats I’ll be arguing for:
– Irwin, for Steve Irwin. Resume goes without saying.
– Hayden, for Bill Hayden. Again, resume goes without saying.
– Beetson, for Artie Beetson; the first ever Indigenous Australian to captain the country in an international sport. (If we’re naming seats after artists, poets, and convicts – looking at you Greenway – surely a notable Indigenous Australian sportsperson deserves to make the cut).
Check I intend to remove Brisbane from dickson entirely into lilley
Cj I have no qualms against sports people but the bar must be high. People like don bradman deserve recognition.
While I feel like Petrie should loose it’s Brisbane parts the quotas don’t work out that way,
If there’s one thing we can surely agree on, it is that Sir Donald Bradman (Knight bachelor, Companion of the Order of Australia, Australian Sports Medallist, Centenary Medallist, Wisden Cricketer of the Year 1931, Wisden Cricketer of the Century, BBC Sports Personality of the Century, Legend of the Sports Australia Hall of Fame, inaugural inductee of the Australian Cricket Hall of fame, first living Australian on a postage stamp, inaugural National Living Treasure, life member of the Marylebone Cricket Club, life member of the South Australian Cricket Association, and namesake of asteroid 2472 Bradman) deserves more recognition.
And you’d be hard-pressed to find someone opposed to him.its impossible to remove both dickson and Petrie from Brisbane I’d prefer to remove Dickson this time around.
I’m aware it’s difficult to remove both Dickson and Petrie from BCC this time around, that’s why I only want to remove one this time. However, I plan on moving Petrie fully out.
the difference is it requres you to push dickson further into it. you can remove all of brisbane from dickson and partially from petrie. and should be able to push petrie up to telegraph and linkfield road a solid boundary
and petire currently already tilisese the bruce highway and the caboolture river on its western and northern boundary which are pretty solid too
rumors of by-election by terms end.
perfect One Nation target.
@CG they might get a lot of votes but they won’t win.