Wentworth – Australia 2022

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  1. Liberal Retain. Likley increased margin

    I’d be interested to see where the Kerryn Phelps first preference voters of 32.4% go. Mostly back to Dave Sharma or another Independent candidate who runs. A strong Green candidate or a Labor candidate with the right messaging for Wentworth voters would also poll well.

  2. Probably going to be at least one independent that’s an actual contender. Phelps may recontest and Malcolm Turnbull, John Hewson or Peter King may also want their old seat back. Turnbull (or his son) would love the profile.
    Phelps being a “high profile independent” was a media construction and they can do it again. The campaign strategy is easy. In addition to COVID woes, Sharma’s moderate image is easy to debunk with his voting record, and Zali in Warringah can be the comparison.

    Without an independent. I see Greens featuring heavily. David Shoebridge is the Greens senate candidate and he got his start in the area – he’ll be looking for votes here. They’ll be hot off the heels of council elections, and Greens do quite well in both Woollahra and Waverley councils.

    Sharma would beat Labor or the Greens and he’s probably safe in most other scenarios, but hard to say how something like Sharma vs Turnbull would go.

  3. In the absence of a high profile independent, this seat should revert to Sharma winning with about 55% of the vote, maybe more depending on what level of personal vote he can build up. (55% is what the Coalition got on Senate 3PP last time, so I think it’s the baseline here.)


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