Wentworth – Australia 2022

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31 COMMENTS

  1. Liberal Retain. Likley increased margin

    I’d be interested to see where the Kerryn Phelps first preference voters of 32.4% go. Mostly back to Dave Sharma or another Independent candidate who runs. A strong Green candidate or a Labor candidate with the right messaging for Wentworth voters would also poll well.

  2. Probably going to be at least one independent that’s an actual contender. Phelps may recontest and Malcolm Turnbull, John Hewson or Peter King may also want their old seat back. Turnbull (or his son) would love the profile.
    Phelps being a “high profile independent” was a media construction and they can do it again. The campaign strategy is easy. In addition to COVID woes, Sharma’s moderate image is easy to debunk with his voting record, and Zali in Warringah can be the comparison.

    Without an independent. I see Greens featuring heavily. David Shoebridge is the Greens senate candidate and he got his start in the area – he’ll be looking for votes here. They’ll be hot off the heels of council elections, and Greens do quite well in both Woollahra and Waverley councils.

    Sharma would beat Labor or the Greens and he’s probably safe in most other scenarios, but hard to say how something like Sharma vs Turnbull would go.

  3. In the absence of a high profile independent, this seat should revert to Sharma winning with about 55% of the vote, maybe more depending on what level of personal vote he can build up. (55% is what the Coalition got on Senate 3PP last time, so I think it’s the baseline here.)

  4. Word is that there will be a high profile independent running, and it’s likely the campaign will be managed by the person who ran Zali Steggal’s campaign (and Kerryn Phelps by-election campaign). Could be interesting.

  5. While a good progressive Independent could make this seat interesting, Sharma will likely consolidate his position. Phelps ran a textbook campaign as the high profile incumbent with a lot of resources, a strong track record and a big presence and still lost in 2019. (Disclaimer: I volunteered for her last time, so may still have PTSD) Sharma has chipped away with local community groups over the last three years. He also is very networked with big donors and will have lots of money to use in his campaign. Sharma is much more moderate than Abbott, so tempting comparisons with Zali and Warringah aren’t relevant in this seat. North Sydney is a more relevant comparison, where another moderate Lib has consolidated a high income inner metro seat. I know it’s a well versed subject, but house prices keep rising at a rapid pace and putting more Lib-leaning voters into this area. While many talk a big game about climate change, economic issues and the prospect of a Labor Govt always win the day with the SUV crowd. The long term increase in the Liberal vote in places like Paddington, Bondi Junction and Bondi, all areas where Labor used to beat the Libs in the early 2000s, will make the mountain harder and harder to scale.

  6. There is media coverage today suggesting that Allegra Spender might run for the Wentworth Independents group. While sympathetic to the cause, I don’t think her candidacy would change my assessment above. I’ve had excited messages from fellow travellers this morning, but I just don’t get what the thinking is in terms of a plan to win. Sharma secured 47.5% of the vote in 2019. So the only way Spender (or another Independent) wins is if they convince at least 2.5k people who voted Liberal in 2019 to switch this time around while holding onto every single voter Phelps secured – a very big ask. Sharma has had three years to dig himself in and is furiously messaging on net zero, something he couldn’t do in 2019. If they didn’t vote for Phelps, who had incumbency and a strong track record, what makes people think they will move over this time around?

  7. Sharma is not safe if the right candidate pops up to dislodge him but nobody seems to be running against him. Phelps has already ruled it out I believe and I doubt Alex Turnbull or any of the other Turnbull’s will give this a crack. (Despite the criticism of his party Malcolm Turnbull still has very high respects for his Liberal successor)

    Labor could win this if they are going for a landslide as this was marginal in 2004 and 2007 and that was with Turnbull at helm but this isn’t a Blue-Ribbon seat it once was. Turnbull clearly had 5-10% personal support. Don’t look at state figures because state elections are different to federal ones so looking at Vaucluse doesn’t give you a clear picture of where this will go.

    I agree Sharma will hold but not because him or his party is popular here. I believe they are distasted here but the lack of opposition means he will win again but it is still highly unlikely it will become a safe seat. Perhaps 55-45 LIB vs ALP after the election.

  8. The Coalition’s net zero plan is basically a fraud, the religious freedom bill would be very unpopular in an electorate that voted 80% in favour of same sex marriage, and the Coalition’s intransigence on ICAC is indefensible whether you’re campaigning in Grayndler or Maranoa. An organised and motivated independent campaign could hammer Sharma on all those and other issues regardless of how ‘moderate’ he claims to be. It’s just a matter of whether that organisation comes together in time. Clock’s ticking.

  9. Does anybody think there may be a possibility that Malcolm Turnbull could burst out and form a new ‘liberal’ – note the small ‘l’ – party before the election? He could sweep up a few of the Liberal moderates – Sharma, Allen, Evans, Zimmerman as well as Steggall, Haines, Sharkie, Griff and Rex Patrick. He has the profile, a track record and most importantly the money – and could pull in Simon Holmes a Court’s stuff as well. He is 67 – not young by our political terms but a wee stripling in the US!! It would liven things up and there seems to be no great enthusiasm for an Albo led ALP.

  10. Redistributed, I believe TNL (The New Liberals) party is one of these small ‘l’ liberal parties. If Turnbull decides to join this party and campaigns with Victor Kline he could have a major influence.

  11. I doubt it. But could he endorse a candidate running against Sharma? Given the way he’s been talking lately, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least.

  12. Allegra Spender was in the AFL today. It’s becoming a competition amongst high achiever corporate women as to who can back her fastest. A veritable who’s who of woke feminist business “leaders” !!.
    Sharma is gone. None of the reasons put forward, so far is actually correct. Spender will capture most of the same people that voted for Phelps & then some (more). For exactly the same reason. It is all about the image.
    Mrs WD put it so well. All those people with their big empty lives, searching for some meaning…..
    Well they will probably think they have found it, or something …..
    Independent win

  13. Allegra Spender is a threat to Sharma for sure, but she needs to eat into his primary vote. She should be able to do that, just depends how the campaign evolves, Sharma has more experience now that he did in 2018 and 2019 perhaps that will work to his advantage.

  14. I don’t think Sharma or Spender have what it takes. Sharma pretends to be a new type of liberal but no mention of A Federal ICAC. Allegra Spender is descended from a long line of Liberal Ministers. I think Wentworth needs an independent who will throw a spanner in the works like Clover Moore moving up to Federal politics. That would send a shiver down Dave Sharma’s spine. Bring on a savvy independent.

  15. I don’t see the point in swapping out one Liberal for another who will vote exactly the same? These faux independents are just Libs pretending to be Democrat-style independents in seats the Libs are worried about losing. Having an each way bet picking who they lose to if they do lose.

    Sharma hasn’t done anything particularly wrong that he would be turfed out for a fake independent.

  16. Thinking Clover Moore type would play well here shows no understanding of the area. Yes it’s next door to the city but it is very different demographic.

  17. The next redistribution could see the Libs in a world of pain in Wentworth. It is now 11.2% below quota so will need to pick up lots of Labor votes from either Sydney or Kingsford Smith.

  18. Redistributed
    Yep. Kingsford Smith will need numbers too. It’s hard to see the AEC not taking most of the remaining Randwick LGA from Wentworth ie 5-7 000 voters. That should mean 17-20, 000 voters from an over quota Sydney. This is the start of cascade effect of Sydney seats all being drawn west as they lose numbers to the east. All the way to Hume, & Lindsay.
    Wentworth will be concretised as an indi seat as a result. I’ll be surprised if the Libs ever get this one back.
    Kerryn Phelps is nothing like Clover. The only person Kerryn has ever been interested in–is Kerryn.

  19. In the Sydney Basin the only seats now over quota are Lindsay, Chifley, Greenway, Mitchell, Macarthur, Werriwa and Sydney (and Hume as it goes into Camden). Bennelong and Reid are just under quota but every other seat is under quota – and some like Wentworth, Parramatta, Berowra and Warringah by a long way. And from the Hunter up the North Coast is cumulatively 55% over quota. The redistribution is going to have big changes even if the seat number doesn’t change.

  20. WD
    I could see Wentworth like Macnamara / Melbourne Ports. Libs lead on primary but stuck at 45% 2pp. The right indie would need to span the Darlinghurst / Vaucluse divide – though if it moves south that Indie could span the Darlinghurst / Coogee divide.

  21. Does that mean that wentworth will resume its 2007 boundaries .. if so it is in theory alp/lib marginal… but with no turnbull and that 10% turn around… whilst Paddington and the Bondi suburbs remain in the seat … it is likely that some one like Phelps will win. If the liberals lose

  22. The big thing playing in favour for Sharma is the possibility of a Sophomore Surge, especially as Phelps won’t be running. Some of those independent voters will break for Spender but the big shift that occured from the By-Election to 2019 was that there were an extra 10k in votes (predominantly due to low voter turn-out for a by-election). These appear to have predominantly broken for Sharma, while the vote for Phelps was predominantly a mop-up of the existing minor party votes that broke to her on preferences. For Phelps to win, she now needs to directly win voters off Sharma and that means turning around 1/4 of the voters who broke for Sharma as a result of the increased turn-out from the last election, all while trying to resist the Sophomore Surge that would be expectd for Sharma.

  23. Hawkeye_au
    iS Phelps running ?. That wouldn’t help Spender. Sharma is pretty insipid, so i’d doubt that he’ll win much of a personal vote, perhaps nothing. Your point about voter turnout is well made. The reason Spender will win is that she will turn Lib voters in large numbers. Also she is likely to be far more likeable than Phelps was. The libs need a high profile candidate like Erin Molan, a senator, or the prodigal son Andrew Hastie. After the election it will be essential.

  24. Mick
    It will take more than the 7k voters from 2007 boundaries . We are probably looking at most of the CBD too.

    Redistributed
    Correct. Big changes. Re McNamara. Can’t see that.
    1/ very different places.
    2/ The ALP VOTE in the new areas contains an absolutely massive personal vote for Tanya. Beats the living hell out of me why, but it could be as much as 10%. Evidence is the suppressed Green vote, senate vote etc.
    No Tanya – no votes !
    3/ the Nsw govt policy of selling of Public housing in this area
    4/ The Indie will come through, but preferences will be crucial, & become more so.

    Can’t see how Wentworth could move south. KS would have to move east massively. More likely KS LOSES Botany LGA to Grayndler, & moves north.

    Ps Are you Still working on a response to my post to you in the Hunter thread ?
    cheers wd

  25. It seems there is a massive turnaround in enrolments in the past 5-10 years. Before the previous 2016 redistribution, the seats of Wentworth and Sydney were over quota, even with the loss of a seat in reapportionment. At the same time, all the North Coast seats north of Newcastle were under quota.

  26. Tom the first and best
    Fair enough. However the Randwick LGA is most of K-S. Don’t you think the AEC will be inclined to add Waverly LGA if the Botany thing can’t work anymore. The AEC does seem to prefer minimalist movements.

  27. The AEC should hopefully recognise the absurdity of Bayside Council and hopefully not align with it. Then again, Snowy Valleys Shire is in Eden-Monaro so anything is possible.

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