Perth – Australia 2022

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  1. I’d be keen to see how this contest plays out.

    Patrick should retain but victory ABOUSTELY not guaranteed.

    Redistribution makes this a more marginal seat than usual (always has been), Patrick Gorman’s main challenger probably will come from The Greens rather than the Liberals unless a strong swing occurs towards the Libs. Greens won Northbridge TAFE booth in 2019, and won 20% of the vote more in more than 20 booths.

    Liberals haven’t endorsed/announced a candidate yet – Caroline Perks is running for the seat again quite popular candidate within the party & in the electorate.

    A future three-way seat like Macnamara, Griffith or Brisbane.

  2. Labor will win but the primary gap between Labor and Greens will probably narrow. Even though the redistribution doesn’t seem to have increased the Green primary however Joondana, Turat Hill and Yokine has a much better potential for growth for Greens Noranda and Morely did.

  3. I think Perth will be a wildcard seat in WA. A possible three-way split. The Liberal candidate who ever they preselect it likely lead on first preferences but a Green win from 3PP is an outside chance.

    Especially considering suburbs like Maylands, Northbridge, Bayswater, North Perth and Highgate are comparable to suburbs in Macnamara, Griffith and parts of central Melbourne.

  4. CG – for a 3 party contest the Greens will have to grow significantly with Labor falling. I cannot see that in this next election. Labor’s vote will grow, Liberals will decrease and who knows what happens with the Greens – remain the same. Having lived in Perth I don’t know how this is similar to Macnamara.

  5. Perth is a clear Labor retain, in future could be a three-way contest but it would need to be reduce in size and be centred on the inner suburbs.

  6. The major party vote is too evenly matched for Greens to be a threat. Maybe in a low tide ALP election they could leapfrog a win on preferences. But that won’t be 2022. In fact I think ALP will win the primary vote.

    Greens won’t be able to overtake Liberals but will have a good showing (low 20s?). The Greens senate strategy revolves around running their vote up here.

  7. Liberals have announced their candidate for Perth rather late in game. David Dwyer, a former candidate for them in Roe.


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